Palmer’s Event is one of the highlights of the PGA Your. Bay Hill is a magnificent course and a magnificent test of the modern day golfer. It’s obviously a tournament that Tiger Woods has dominated, but as we all know we won’t be seeing him until Augusta.
A strict Par 72 (the 4th and 16th are now par 5s - thanks Florian for the pointer!), key signatures here are tight fairways, extremely tough Bermuda rough, water in-play and the effect of wind. With tough wind conditions forecast for Thursday and early on Friday, we are looking for wind positive players who have experience of winning on the PGA Tour allied to decent current form.
However beware! The course has been re-modelled since last year, with new green formats, bunkers and undulations. Was it any coincidence that many players either pulled out of or missed the cut at Copperhead last week?
To be fair we are spoilt for choice this week with players who can contend …..but I’ve gone very much for a local approach.
Vijay Singh 1pt EW @ 25/1: UPDATE 24.3.10 - Vijay Singh has withdrawn from the tournament. Steve has replaced Vijay with Kenny Perry:
In the right side of the draw weather wise and his game statistically isn't as bad as the results he is getting. No1 for Driving on Tour jumps off the page on a course where gusty wind is predicted Thursday afternoon through Friday. Perry loves the Bay Hill format (course winner) and I think he's far too good a player not to be in contention soon. This tough ball strikers course could be the spark that ignites his game.
A real Florida expert selection this. Ames plays extremely well in the wind. Has a winning pedigree on the PGA Tour in Florida and has the game and the form to challenge this week around Bay Hill. No 4 Pick in our Predictor model
Johnson is one slot above Ames in our Predictor model this week so I like the additional 5 points of value offered against him this week. Indeed already nibbled in from 50s. You can’t argue with the price, because Johnson hasn’t found form so far in 2010, but around Bay Hill, close to where he used to live in Orlando, expect a return to somewhere close to his best.
Like Singh, Imada pulled out of his local Tampa Bay event last week at the last minute, but golfers have a habit of fully recovering for the next tournament. I like Ryuji this week because he likes Palmer designed courses and his game is close to full working order. When that happens he can contend in any tournament.
Generous price for local Florida based player who like Ames saves his best performances for his home state. Played well at the recent Honda Classic finishing 12th and at the Northern Trust in February finished 5th
REMEMBER - For T10 betting we use price permitting as they pay out in FULL on tied place bets. It’s a no brainer so click here to open an account. If you like top 20 betting then check out my top 20 tips here.
I like both Immelman and Chopra for T10 & T20 purposes this week. I had to choose one for my final point and the Orlando resident Chopra gets the nod. Recent performances in Malaysia and Tampa Bay show he is starting to find a little form just as he arrives at his home course.
Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 13:00GMT 23.3.10 but naturally subject to fluctuation