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2009 BMW Championship Tips

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As seems the norm lets start with Tiger Watch!  Again Woods plays Coghill, home of the BMW Championship, extremely well.  1st, 2nd, 2nd, 7th & 1st in his last 5 visits suggest he may well feature this week!  4 successive tournaments without a win would suggest he’s certainly due one and with Steve Stricker seriously challenging for both the Fed Ex Cup and PGA Tour Player of the year mantles, you’d expect Tiger to step up to the plate this week.  He’s even slightly longer in price this week so why not fill your boots at best priced Ladbrokes.

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Tiger Woods @ 2/1

As regulars know I’m not a 'Tiger backer' so I’m leaving the World Number 1 well alone.  Instead, after a string of successful weeks, I thought I’d search really hard for some value this week in my staking plan.  Coghill Golf and Country Club is based in the suburbs of Chicago and is a well respected course by all tour pros.  It is around the 7,400 yard mark and plays as a Par 71.  However the real key to success around this Illinois course is shot management and a superb short game as the greens are fast and new renovation by Rees Jones as added real contours to the green. 

My selections this week are based around high quality players who are well priced and who will have the mental attitude to perform well this week.  Survival in the Fed Ex Cup will motivate many, whereas great memories of ‘Tri-State’ golf (Illinois, Michigan and Indiana) will get others on a positive mental attitude.  A great Rees Jones course resume is always a positive as well. 

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Geoff Ogilvy 1pt EW @ 40-1

Of all the players that registered on my radar at the Duetsche, Ogilvy’s return to form made the biggest impact on me.  Some bookmaker sources alerted me to substantial each way interest being placed on Ogilvy pre tournament and sure enough his game started to return at TPC Boston.  I like the Scottsdale, Arizona based Australian for a couple of reasons this week.  Firstly momentum is very important in the Playoffs, so last week’s performance will bring confidence.  Secondly Playoff fatigue sets in about now.  Quite simply players can’t perform week after week after week at the very top of their game. Beware Stricker and Harrington backers!  Ogilvy missed the cut at The Barclays so is relatively ‘lightly raced.’ Thirdly Ogilvy has a great record around Rees Jones designs like Humble in Texas – home of the Shell Houston Open and like Torrey Pines in California.  5th at the 2004 Western Open at Coghill also appeals as does the 40-1. 

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Angel Cabrera 1pt EW @ 50-1

I’m expecting a free pint from landlord Bryan down at the Harpenden Arms later this week after Cabrera’s fine performance at the Deutsche.  Another great Bamford tip deserves some liquid refreshment and he is Angel’s Number 1 fan!  Review the 2007 and 2008 Fed Ex Cup Play Offs and two factors jump out of the stats.  Momentum is key as is week in-week out contention fatigue.  Well Angel has momentum after his 4th at TPC Boston and like Ogilvy missed the cut in New Jersey so will be fresh.  Another telling stat is that the last two winners of the BMW Championship did not feature at The Barclays, but finished Top 5 at the Deutsche.  Cabrera’s BMW Championship form is also unnaturally (for Cabrera) consistent with 2 Top 30 results. 

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Stewart Cink 1pt EW @ 70-1

Next up is the reigning Open Champion.  Coghill suits ball strikers and players who can manage their game’s well.  Winning the The Open at Turnberry in August proves that Stewart’s course management is spot on!  That’s also backed up by his great record at this track.  A 4th and a 7th in his past two visits jump out of the page.  Two rounds of 71 (Level Par) at Boston last week sent Cink onto Illinois early but a 1st, 6th and 28th with no missed cuts in 4 appearances prior to the Deutsche show that Cink’s game is in decent nick.  I like the 70s on offer here. 

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Kenny Perry 1pt EW @ 80-1

Kenny is in the World’s Top 10 and a multi tournament winner in 2009.  Add to that a Fed Ex Cup 5th position which he will be desperate to defend and a ‘tri-state’ golfing resume that is absolutely outstanding.  Add a pinch of ‘non contention’ in the first two Fed Ex Cup events, but tellingly no Missed Cuts and I’m starting to smell a fantastic recipe where Perry could dine at the top table this week.  80-1 offers SUPERB value for the BBQ chicken loving Kentuckian! 

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Anthony Kim 1pt EW @ 80-1

Anthony Kim will be hungry for Fed Ex Cup points this week.  He currently sits 36th in the Fed Ex Cup standings as is effectively on the bubble.  If he doesn’t perform at Coghill he will miss the prestigious and extremely lucrative Tour Championship in Atlanta in late September.  That will motivate and focus the young enigma that is My Kim.  A third in last year’s BMW Championship at Bellerive will bring positive vibes.  Another thing I like about Kim this week is his liking for Rees Jones courses through out his young career. A win and plus a third at the AT&T Congressional in 08 and 09 allied to a third at last year’s Tour Championship at Eastlake show how he loves ‘the look’ of Jones designs.