Steve Bamford’s Crowne Plaza Invitational Predictions
Colonial is a traditional ‘Hogan’s Alley’ of a course, where the fairways are tree lined and where this year the ‘rough is tough’. We all require form indicators and Colonial has two direct form links. Riviera (another Hogan’s Alley!) in Los Angeles is pretty much the same kind of course, where the same ‘eyes’ and player skill sets are required. You won’t overpower this course, it’s for ball-strikers and shot-shapers.
Then we have Augusta. For the second week running there is a brilliant Augusta form link and this one is a perfect example so make sure you read this week’s Marking Your Card. Insight like that needs to be followed religiously, as those who follow me know from last week!
My tips are:-
Steve Stricker 1.25pts EW @ 30-1 Sky Bet Has had a strong season without crossing the finishing line. He finished 2nd at Riviera in February when he should have beaten Mickelson. With wind conditions forecast to be tranquil, I like the Wisconsin based player’s chances. Stricker will be motivated to win after his neighbour and friend Jerry Kelly’s triumph in New Orleans.
Stephen Ames 1pt EW @ 33-1 Stan James Canadian Stephen Ames loves Colonial. Renowned as a tremendous wind player he’s had a disappointing season, but his form curve is upwards. A 3rd and a pair of 4ths in the past 5 seasons here and played well last time out at the Texas Open when he contended. Ames can go close this week.
Mike Weir 0.75pt EW @ 50 -1 Ladbrokes It’s a Canadian double this week in Texas. Like Ames has underachieved but again his form curve is looking profitable. Plays Riviera brilliantly and after 16th last week at Byron Nelson will be looking to build. Great price for the World Number 23, 8 time PGA Tour winner and 6th best putter in 2009. I’ll take that.
Steve Flesch 1pt EW @ 150-1 Bet 365 A Colonial winner who placed 5th at Augusta in April. Loves tougher courses where shot shape and placement is key. 150-1 he must be in terrible form? He shot 66 in his final round last week at TPC Four Seasons. I can’t understand the price, but I’ll take it!
Matt Kuchar 1pt T10 @ 11/1 Bet 365 Unspectacular…a grinder….quiet….steady…..not as good as Ben Crane! Loves Riviera and the Georgia educated Florida resident gets on brilliantly at Colonial as well. 9th last year and played solidly at Byron Nelson last week.
Mark Wilson 1pt T10 @ 11/1 Bet 365 I’m going back to the Wilson well. A four putt at the Texas Open cost him a chance of the win when he finished 10th. Solid, steady, accurate and patient who can score low enough to T10 this week.
PW's tips.
My initial reaction was to simply copy Bamford's tips as he's on such a hot streak, however I think there's some more value out there:
Brian Davis, 2.5pts ew @ 50-1 Bet 365. In the best nick of his career and still improving with current form of 2-5-5 in the last 3 weeks. Has solidly hit over 70% GIR in the last 21 days and is improving with the flat stick - last week taking just 1.64 putts per GIR. This has got to be his best chance so far of breaking his US duck.
James Nitties, 2pts T10 @ 15-1 Stan James. First time on this course for the Aussie rookie, however his recent form (12-17) and top 10s at the FBR and Mayakoba earlier this term give hope at a generous price.
Paul Goydos, 2pts T10 @ 12-1 Stan James. This is the type of course which Goydos can excel on in my view - he'll never overpower a course but can shape the ball fantastically to put himself in the right position to score. 3rd in his last event (Valero) proves he's in the right kind of form to match his top 10 here last year - who knows, perhaps he could even get close to repeating his 2 top 4 finishes of the late 90s...
Corey Pavin, 1pt T10 @ 25-1 Bet 365. Couldn't resist a long shot! Won here twice, 6 top 10s, top 15 last year....worth a small punt at 25s.