Steve Bamford's tips for the 2010 Crowne Plaza Invitational
The classic course of Texas has pulled together a stellar field of top players. Phil Mickelson heads the list and a victory sees him overtake Tiger Woods as World Number 1. He’s ably backed up by Furyk, Stricker, Casey, Poulter, Ogilvy, Choi, Yang, Glover, Stenson, Singh, Perry, Johnson, Watney and host of great players. The Par 70, 7,000 yard Colonial needs to placed in the same bracket as Augusta National, Quail Hollow, Riviera, Waielee and next week’s Muirfield. Bent grass greens, tree lined fairways and strategically placed bunkers make it a challenge, where course knowledge and damn good golf usually triumph.
The recent champions list of Stricker, Mickelson, Sabbatini and Perry are all players who excel on these kinds of courses and have records around both Augusta but a number of the other courses. Interestingly they also have ‘northern state’ connections of some kind. Great scoring is also a pre-requisite to win here so expect a -15 to -17 total being required for victory.
Very interested to see that the traditional bookmakers are market leading on prices this week at Colonial. Applause therefore to Coral, Ladbrokes and William Hill this week. With the US Open just around the corner, where the discerning punter always waits for Wednesday morning “best price madness” across these three bookies, it’s well worth opening an account with them this week via the links below.
Phil Mickelson 3.5 pts win
Best priced 8/1 with
RESULT: Missed Cut
As regulars know I rarely back favourites, but Mickelson ticks EVERY box this week. Loves classical courses like Augusta, Riviera and twice a winner here in Dallas, allied to a 2nd and 8th place. Knows the place intimately and has a great connection with the tournament. Will be totally motivated to win to become World Number 1 and the tournament organisers are also backing Amy’s cancer fight with a number of initiatives through the 4 days. Lightly raced but his 17th at The Players on a course he doesn’t overly fancy shows his game is ready for the fight this week. Unsurprisingly our Predictor Model No 2 this week behind Tim Clark.
Kenny Perry 1pt EW
Best priced 40/1 with
RESULT: T22
As short as 30/1 with a number of bookmakers Perry, who I tipped last week for the Byron Nelson, is starting to contend in tournaments again after almost 9 months in the golfing wilderness. Shot rounds of 66 and 67 last week and sat in contention after the 3rd round in Irving, but expectedly fell back on the Sunday as the gravity of being in contention for a tournament took hold. We are due on Perry and his record both at Augusta, Muirfield and most importantly here at Colonial is first class. Those good vibes could well get the flat stick to work a little more consistently and Perry will contend.
Scott Verplank 0.75pt EW
Best priced 66/1 with
RESULT: T5
Oklahoma based Verplank (as he does) has hit a great vein of form in Texas. An experienced campaigner whose accuracy-based game pays real dividends around Colonial. His short game and putting were poor front end of the year but he has righted those wrongs in his game and a final round 67 in the wind on Sunday has generated a 5th placed finish. That was after 13th at The Players. As shorts as 40/1 with Victor Chandler, Verplank can play Colonial blindfolded and can offer value this week.
Tim Petrovic 0.5pt EW
Best priced 125/1 with
RESULT: T33
Austin Texas based Petrovic provokes real interest this week for a number of reasons. Firstly he qualified on Monday for the British Open in July, by topping the qualifying field in Plano Texas. That followed his first T10 of the season the previous week at the Texas Open where he finished 6th. His Connecticut college education fits perfectly with the ‘up state’ links with Colonial and his record around here is first class, with a 5th, 6th and a 12th amongst 7 starts. A look at Petrovic’s career shows that when he hits form it tends to last for 2-3 tournaments so I’m expecting more of the same this week. Finally I could have quite easily finished the team this week with Ben Crane or Brian Gay. Gay has been heavily backed in from 50/1 first showing to 40/1 and that’s purely based upon his closing 63 on Sunday. Crane is the PGA Tour’s form horse at present and tie that in with his love for Colonial you can see the Washington state born, Texas resident going well. However if I’m backing Mickelson I thought I’d close with something a little different.
Pat Perez 1pt EW
Best priced 80/1 with
RESULT: T10
The mercurial talents of Mr Perez could well embarrass me this week, BUT I’m thinking that the Californian will step up to the mark this week. Our Colonial Predictor Model this week keeps highlighting Perez as a player of interest, whatever way you cut the data. 6th here in 2008 and 4th in 2007 Pat obviously has great vibes about the place and we all know when on form he can shoot extremely low. Struggled early doors with his wedge play, but has hit 3 rounds in the mid 60s in his last 2 tournament appearances. I think Perez is due a decent showing and I also like the way he has played both Waielee and Riviera well throughout his career.
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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 19:30BST but naturally subject to fluctuation.
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