Steve Bamford’s HP Byron Nelson Championship Predictions
After Fredrik Jacobson’s place success last week we move into the middle week of the ‘Texas swing’ in good heart, after 3 successive positive tournaments. Picking a winner this week is really tough; with lots of course form players severely out of form and those players that are in-form at crazily low prices. I’m working completely in tandem with this week’s Marking Your Card with my tips. Insight like that needs to be followed religiously, so make sure you read it now!
My tips are below:
Vijay Singh 1.25pts EW @ 30-1 Bet365. The bookies have realised what I noticed at TPC Sawgrass, two weeks ago. Vijay’s putting is back! With putts per GIR of 1.69 and his first sub 70 score of 2009 in tough conditions, The Players marked a watershed for the big Fijian. His Byron Nelson record is excellent, so Go Vijay Go!
Rory Sabbatini 1pt EW @ 45-1 Stan James. 2009 has been a much better season for the brash South African. Three T10s this season have halted Sabbatini’s slide down the World Golf Rankings. He feels comfortable at TPC Four Seasons for a number of reasons. The new course layout suits his game where you need power bombing. He’s a superb putter and lives in Fort Worth so can drive home! Shorter rough this year will also suit him, so I’m on at 45-1.
Ryuji Imada 0.75pt EW @ 80 -1 Skybet. An excellent short game is required to succeed here. Superb scrambling (Ranked 21st in 2009) sand saves (32nd) and putting (25th) are an absolute must, just look at Adam Scott’s winning numbers last year. You can see why he has three T30 finishes here in four attempts. Thanks Skybet for the incredibly generous 80-1!
Dustin Johnson 1pt EW @ 90-1 Bet 365. I went with Dustin last week. A 75 in Round 1 had me spitting feathers. Another Missed Cut Tip!?! But then things changed radically. He proceeded to shoot 65 and then a 62. Superb! Then the wind blew and Dustin toppled back down the leaderboard. Note: DJ can’t play in the wind, but he’s a monster from tee to green when it doesn’t. Look at this week’s weather forecast and Marking Your Card and you can see why I’m on the Johnson train again.
Carl Pettersson 1pt T10 @ 15/1 Bet 365. I’ve tried really hard this week to find this season’s most out of form player and I’m thinking big Carl fits the bill perfectly. However his Byron Nelson record is superb and Carl is a perennial late starter every year. Come late May, through June and July the big North Carolina residing Swede starts to play superb golf. His price is about right for his current form, but this multiple PGA Tour player will turn the corner soon.
Scott McCarron 1pt T10 @ 15/1 Bet 365. In decent nick right now and if the wind blows it won’t affect McCarron. He’s an accuracy player, who is a great exponent of long irons and 5-10 feet putts. He’ll get plenty of practice this week. Tied for 13th here last year. Don’t be surprised to see him in contention this week.
PW's tips.
I'm going minimalistic this week as there's only one standout bet for me this week:
Shigeki Murayama 2.5pts e/w 80-1 Betfred; 5pts Top 10 7-1 Bet 365. Top 5 in 2 of his last 3 starts on the Japan Tour so in great nick, T10 at the Sony and T12 at Pebble Beach earlier this term in the US. Top in Japan for scrambling and avoiding bogeys this season which is vital around here. One of his 3 wins in America came here in 2002 and he's backed that up with another 3 top 10s. Lump on!