2011 starts here! That’s right the PGA Tour 2011 starts with the Hyundai Tournament of Champions at Kapalua. Only Tournament Champions from 2010 get entry onto the Plantation Course at Kapalua. Hence a stellar field less Woods (he never plays this event even when he wins Tournaments), Mickelson (rarely on his itinerary) and McIlroy (sticking to Europe) of 2009 Champions will fight it out for supremacy, the early Fed Ex Cup lead and $1,120,000 for the winner. Obscene isn’t it! Whilst one of thirty four players will be considerably richer come Sunday, so hopefully will we so read on. As per usual my tips will feature the standard 10 point staking plan each week across the PGA Tour. Add to that our new Spread Tips feature every tournament + Double Your Money (on full field events) and our new Ton Plus Tip feature. Here is to a profitable 2011 with Golf Betting System.
As you’d expect quality players abound in Kapalua this week, but who to pick? Ogilvy (winner 08 & 09), Furyk (winner 01), Stricker (2nd 08), Dustin Johnson, McDowell, Poulter, Kuchar, Mahan, Villegas, Zach Johnson, Rose, Clark, Watson – the list goes on! Ogilvy’s favouritism can’t be challenged just look at his record here and the Australian major winner has both won and lost in a Play Off in his native back yard over the ‘winter.’ Naturally he can’t be discounted and we’ve covered off Ogilvy within this week’s Predictor Model, which is well worth a play with this week.
However I’m sticking to my guns of not backing the favourite this week and picking the right players for the course and the likely windy conditions. It’s fact that the extremely slow nature of the uniquely over-sized Bermuda greens, the huge on-course undulations and the runway wide fairways of this +7,400 yard Par 73 make for a unique challenge. It may be surrounded by the Pacific but this is no links test of golf. Course experience is absolutely vital as is ‘winter momentum’ and players who can’t drive the ball ‘long’ quite simply struggle to get the job done.
Course debutants though can compete and I’m firmly in the “Big” Bob Garrigus camp this week and its well worth looking at the Arizona man as a spread bet with Extrabet – click here to read my Hyundai Tournament of Champions Spread Tips
Els is our Predictor Model Number 1 this week and the perfect Bermuda specialist who can get the job done this week. The “Big Easy” ticks every box. Winter Form: His win at the South African Open before Xmas on slow Bermuda was top notch and backed up 3 other Top 6 winter finishes. Course Experience: This week marks Ernie’s 9th visit to Kapalua where he has gleaned a Victory (03), 2nd (00) & 3rd (01 & 05). His last in visit in 2008, when he was in a real form slump saw a fighting 6th place. Driving Distance: Ernie may not be the longest but his 288 PGA Tour average for 2010 is ample. He’ll reach those Par 5s in two when he needs too. Bermuda/Florida Wins: Just look at his CV! RESULT: T17
I triumphed with Ben Crane using 888 Sports Free £20 No Lose Bet in Malaysia recently and Scott is a perfect candidate this week for the no risk fully refunded win bet. I love the look of Adam this week and yet again he ticks every box. Winter Form: A win on 11 stimp Bermuda in Singapore in November was the highlight of a decent winter campaign. He won’t be rusty. Course Experience: 7th on debut in 2004 has been backed up with 5th in 2005 and a 2nd in 2007. The course obviously suits Adam’s eye. Driving Distance: An average of 294 yards in 2010 adds flames to the fire! Bermuda / Florida Wins: Won the ultimate Bermuda test that is TPC Sawgrass in 2004 allied to multiple Bermuda victories across the US and Asia. In an small field the undoubted class of the World Number 23 offers a superbly tasty value punt this week at NO RISK!!! RESULT: T21
Tipsters often suffer with premature selection problems! That’s right, we pick and highlight players a week or two too early, who ultimately triumph when we’ve turned the other cheek. Well I’m going to show a higher level of patience with key players in 2011 and Kim after disappointing this column’s followers at the Chevron before Christmas is ripe for a decent start to this year. I won’t bore you with all the details but yet again Kim has the course experience and attributes to rip into Kapalua. 2nd here on his debut (and only) visit in 2009 shows he likes the course. His winter form started to show the uptrend in form I’m looking for and this was borne out with 3rd at the Shark Shoot Out with Chris DiMarco on Bermuda, the week after his Sherwood disappointment. But the key for me with Kim is his liking for both PGA National and Houston where he finished 2nd and triumphed in 2010. Appleby and Ogilvy have won 5 of the last 6 tournaments held at Kapalua. Appleby has won at PGA National and Houston a total of 3 times and Ogilvy finished 2nd at Houston in 2008. Horses and courses guys! RESULT: T19
Ryan Palmer used to be one of those players you’d never back. Inconsistency was his middle name. But 2010 saw a stop to all that. Palmer’s ‘shock’ win over Allenby at the Hawaii Open last year on Bermuda not only qualified the Texan for this event but provided the launch pad for a stellar year. 9th at the Texas Open (on Bermuda) was followed by one of Golf Betting System’s best 2010 tips 2nd at the Bridgestone Invitational. 5th at The Barclays then ensued and eventually Palmer finished an amazing 23rd in the Fed Ex Cup. Palmer now sits proudly in the World’s Top 64 players and believe me with the WGC Matchplay and Doral events just around the corner he’ll want to stay there. He has course experience, is long enough off the tee and all 3 of his PGA Tour wins have been on his beloved Bermuda. With a liking for Florida Resort style courses and a decent ‘winter’ culminating in a Top 20 at Disney after a solid debut at the WGC event in Shanghai, I’m thinking 66s is excellent value where he’s priced as short as 50/1 by other bookmakers. RESULT: T15
Paddy Power rate Garrigus as short as 66/1 for this event and I know exactly where they are coming from around Kapalua. As an Each Way value punt the Bermuda specialist who can bang it +310 yards is like manner from heaven. After the most famous disintegration of recent times at TPC Southwind last year, “Big Bob” showed amazing resolve and determination to hold onto his PGA Tour card with his first ever victory at Disney. Kapalua will definitely suit and I’m expecting a strong course debut from the PGA Tours longest drive who unlike Bubba Watson can play Bermuda greens. RESULT: 2nd, Lost Playoff
Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 21:00GMT 4.1.11 but naturally subject to fluctuation.