It could be argued that the Timberlake Tournament in Las Vegas is the ‘jewel’ of the Fall Series crown. Unsurprisingly this part of Nevada is the home to many players and is close to Scottsdale, another golfer hub, so named players come out to play in the early throws of Autumn in the desert. Fowler, Mahan, Watney and Hoffman head the betting field, with other luminaries such as Campbell, Kim (recovering from injury), Sabbatini, Appleby, Barnes and Love III, making for a half decent depth of field.
TPC Summerlin offers little of a test for this calibre of golfer and is one of the easiest courses on the PGA Tour. The course itself became a Par 71 last year by cutting 4 Par 5s to 3 but -4/138 was required to simply make the cut. Eagles, birdies and bouncebacks are the order of the day. Martin Laird shot 2 eagles and 23 birdies on his way to victory last year. The Champions List over the past 6 years tells you all you need to know around formulating the required betting strategy this week. Laird, Turnesa, McNeill, Matteson, Short Jnr, and Stolz. Not a favourite or named player amongst them. Fact is, they were all rookies or 2nd year PGA Tour players in desperate need of a result to keep their card. Allied to that, victory in Nevada marked their first PGA Tour win so we are looking for non winners:
Simpson has found it difficult to back up a stellar rookie season in 2009. A mid-season set of 6 straight missed cuts represented Simpson’s first collapse of form in his short PGA Tour career. However a consistent 2nd half of the season sees the North Carolina Wake grad sitting 116th on the Money List. However he still needs to perform this week to guarantee his 2011 playing privileges. 5th in Palm Springs and 13th at Scottsdale show that he can shoot low in desert conditions and a 12th and 8th in his last 6 outings show that his game is about to strike gold. RESULT: 4th
He disappointed at 66s last week, so I’m sticking with Jeff Quinney this week at triple figures. Quinney may not be a rookie but he’s in desperate need of a performance and has not triumphed on the PGA Tour in 4 seasons, so he would be a first time winner. 4th in Canada in July and 9th at the McGladrey 2 weeks back, so form is on the Scottsdale resident’s side but time certainly isn’t. Jeff is a West Coast positive golfer who knows he has to T5 this week to improve from 144th on the Money List and keep his card for 2011. The final Disney event in Florida simply doesn’t suit so it is now or never. 3rd in Phoenix, 4th in Palm Springs and 2nd in Reno over the past 4 years highlight that he is comfortable in the desert. RESULT: M/C
Hang on a minute, how does Jeev fit into this betting strategy? Well Singh is a PGA Tour rookie and is quietly building up a head of steam. India’s Number 2 always stated that he wanted to become the first Indian to win on the PGA Tour, so he was “stung” when compatriot Arjan Atwal delivered at the Wyndham in August and then took his nation’s No1 rank in recent weeks. A form line of 27-15-59-18 adds to my interest in Singh, as does 9 of his last 16 rounds being in the 60s. There is no doubt that Jeev is a class act but he finds himself in a hole as he sits outside both the US Top 125 and Euro Top 115, where his 2 year exemption for winning the Austrian Open ends at the end of 2010. He needs a result. RESULT: M/C
I’ll finish off this week with some value rookie and value outside the Top 125 in the Money List Top 10 place bets in association with Extrabet. All of these players will be keen to play well this week. REMEMBER - For place betting we use Extrabet (price permitting) as they pay out in FULL on tied place bets. It’s a no-brainer so click here to open an account. For my top 20 tips for this tournament click here: JT Shriners double your money
On a roll right now and if you take rookie impostor McIlroy and Fowler out of the mix he is rookie of the year. 2 Top 10s have delivered 93rd in the Money List and a guaranteed card for 2011. 3rd at Turning Stone in August and 33rd last time out despite his comfortable position. RESULT: T18
One of my favourite young players has had the season from hell and now finds himself mired in 138th on the Money List. 3 Top 10 finishes in the desert over the past 3 seasons show that Californian Merrick feels right home in this part of the world and he loves Bent grass greens so I wouldn’t be surprised to see his name pop up on the leaderboard. Merrick was 3rd on his last desert outing at Reno in August. RESULT: T41
At 154th on the list, Tasmanian Goggin is ready for the chop. A Top 5 would do nicely and I think that Goggin can deliver. Until last year Goggin was a Scottsdale resident so feels at home in the desert. 5 finishes in the past 6 tournaments show that the worst of his golfing form loss ills are over and he was 17th in the recent Viking Classic. Finished 4th in Phoenix in March and was 3rd in Scottsdale in 2008. RESULT: T28
We can’t get rid of Stankowski from our Predictor Model – Number 2 pick this week - and looking at his current form and game stats it’s easy to see why. The Texan makes birdies and eagles for fun. Stankowski's current form line of 18-33-42-53 is encouragingly progressive, especially when he was 4th at the Greenbrier and 10th at Reno in August. 139th so needs another big week. RESULT: M/C
Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 20:30BST 19.10.10 but naturally subject to fluctuation.
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