Steve Bamford’s St Jude Classic Tips
Like the Shell Houston event the week before The Masters, TPC Southwind and the newly named St Jude Classic has found a superb niche for itself. Effectively the course is a superb warm up for next week’s US Open. The course is hard; with US Open type long rough, fast greens and treacherous weather conditions. Only ‘hard nuts’ need apply!
TPC Southwind and its dedication to deliver a US Open feel is rewarded year after year with a strong international field and this year is no exception. This track is purely around accuracy, GIR% and scrambling. Tough course conditions and a hostile looking weather forecast that promises +30C temperatures over the course of the four days, +20 mph winds on Thursday and torrential rain on Friday, will make this a true test. It's very much horses for courses for me, where ‘plodders’ will prosper linked to the superb Marking Your Card Deep South historical analysis.
My tips are:-
Retief Goosen 1pt EW @ 28-1 Skybet Based in Florida, ‘The Goose’ is as tough as Teak. Goosen of course is a twice US Open champion. Add to that the fact that he won the Transitions Championship at Copperhead in March on another tough US Open style course where accuracy and hitting greens was key. 11th and 22nd on his last two outings I like the 28-1 on offer with Skybet so get on before it’s snapped up.
Scott Verplank 1pt EW @ 40 -1 Bet 365 Grew up in Texas and still resides there so used to windy tough conditions. Verplank is your typical ‘grinder’ who has patience is bucket loads and superb course management skills. Expect Scott to be in the mix come the weekend. His record here of two consecutive Top 10s is no surprise and I’m visiting Bet 365 right now to snap up the 40-1 on offer.
Bob Estes 1pt EW @ 70-1 Skybet Texan Estes is a straight driver who hits fairways all day. His accuracy into greens with long irons is superb and if he misses his scrambling ranks in the PGA Tour’s Top 20. His Texas roots dictate that he can play in severe humidity, torrential rain and strong winds. Bob’s record at TPC Southwind is brilliant as is his current form. Skybet should be your destination and add Estes at 70-1 to your St Jude portfolio.
Will Mackenzie 0.75pt EW @ 110-1 Bet 365 Mackenzie is a young man who is a free spirit in the world of professional golf. When he first turned pro he slept in his car! He left the sport for a couple of years to travel and experience the great outdoors. His golf game has similar attributes. Tough courses and tough conditions bring out the best in his game. He’s a two time PGA Tour winner who resides in Jupiter, Florida so windy conditions won’t scare him. I have a hunch that Mackenzie will play well this week and I’m snapping up the 110-1 best price on offer at Bet 365 and so should you.
Jose –Maria Olazabal 1.5pts T10 14-1 Those lovely guys at Skybet can be very generous! Don’t think that Olazabal can’t compete on the PGA Tour. His 6th at the Verizon Heritage in April shows that he can still mix it selectively at this level. Look at his 2009 PGA Tour stats and you can see how his game suits TPC Southwind perfectly. Garcia contended for Spain last year and I can see Jose stealing a Top 10 finish this week at a superb 14-1. You know where to click > Skybet
Brandt Snedeker 1 pt T10 @ 16-1 Stan James As many of Golf Betting System’s followers know, beware the local boy! Let's be honest his price is indicative of his 2009; it’s been atrocious. However a 17th at Bay Hill in April shows that Snedeker can compete on tough wind swept courses. Look at his record and certain facts jump out of the screen. He finished 3rd at Augusta and 9th in the US Open in 2008. He’s finished 3rd and 35th at St Jude in the past two seasons. If he finds any kind of form this week the 16-1 available right now at Stan James for a Top 10 place is an absolute steal. Get on!
PW's Tips
An interesting week where some of the big guns may well hold themselves back for the main event next week. Mickelson's return means some slightly longer prices for many, although with the course playing as tough as expected and lefty's recent family concerns I'm going nowhere near him. Here's my choice of players in with a sniff this week:
John Senden 1pt EW 66-1 Skybet. Much improved with the putter this term in my opinion (means he makes a few inside 10 feet as opposed to sod all!) - if he can nail a few putts then the rest of his game will hold him in great stead this week. Top 10 here in 2006, 3 top 10s already this term bode well. Note of caution - don't watch him on shot tracker!
Alex Cejka 1pt EW 90-1 Bet 365. Has played some of his best golf in the last few months without finishing the job - the Players was a case in point where he will have learned a lot about himself. Finished 4th here last year so will have fond memories - could well repeat that this year. Update - Cejka has withdrawn, additional selection below:
Jerry Kelly 1pt EW 100-1 Stan James. Kelly was next on my list - again has the game for this and a great final round of 67 last week gives great heart. Featured in the predictor heavily, could well repeat his winning form of a few weeks ago.
Scott McCarron 1pt EW 150-1 Sporting Bet. Rough week on the tough Par-3s last week can be forgiven; his form at the Byron Nelson following up a good finish in the Valero suggests he's good enough to feature here. Very good tee-to-green, this course will suit his accurate style of play.
Tim Wilkinson 2pts Top 10 14-1 Stan James . Another players who bases his game on accuracy. His putter returned to something like form at the Byron Nelson, if he can improve on that then top-10 is likely.
Joe Durant 2pts Top 10 22-1 Bet 365. Token long shot however I don't think his chances of a top-10 warrant such a long price. Came very close to a top 10 in 1998 and 2000; with the exception of his putter has the same to suit here.
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