Steve Bamford’s The Memorial Tournament Predictions
Muirfield Village, Dublin, Ohio is our next stop off for the tournament that celebrates Jack Nicklaus, The Memorial Tournament. Muirfield is a tough course that ranked 5th toughest on the PGA Tour in 2008. However don’t let that fool you into picking ‘grinder’ type selections this week. High winds battered Muirfield in 08, but tranquillity is forecasted.
Result: We need players who can shoot low this week to contend. I’m thinking that double digits will be required to get near a top 10 place and sub 275 shots to win the tournament. Key player skills required this week will be fairway positioning, strong iron play, top scrambling and making putts from 10 – 20 feet. The greens at Muirfield are difficult to hit, lightning fast and well contoured.
My tips are:-
Camilo Villegas 1pt EW @ 40-1 Skybet Spiderman is having a solid if not spectacular 2009 season. He contended on the West coast swing, played well at Doral in the WGC, but of late has been off the pace. However there are key reasons why he is the plan this week. He can shoot low scores. His tee to green game is strong as a quick look at his GIR% stats in 2009 highlight and his game around the greens is no weakness. 35th in 2007, I can see the Columbian playing well after a decent last outing at The Players (14th).
Stewart Cink 0.75pt EW @ 66 -1 Stan James I’m a sentimental fool and I want to see Cink playing closer to his best this season. In reality this year has been a disaster for him after a stellar 2008. I follow him on Twitter (you must sign up to follow GolfBetting on Twitter!) and the guy is slowly starting to turn it around. His Muirfield form is superb and after a season’s best 22nd at Colonial last week, I want Stewart to continue the uptrend this week in a successful setting for him.
Aaron Baddeley 1pt EW @ 80-1 Paddy Power. Muirfield suits Australian players. The greens are firm and fast and positioning the ball off the tee is key. Those characteristics are familiar to players from ‘Down Under.’ Baddeley came onto my radar just before The Masters when I read he had changed back to his original swing coach. There has been significant improvement culminating in a season’s best 9th at The Players. With a liking for Muirfield I like Badds’ chances this week.
Justin Rose 1pt EW @ 80-1 William Hill. I’ve never tipped Justin before and likely won’t ever again, but I like his chances this week. For once he’s a decent enough price thanks partly to Tiger’s participation. He has worked on his tendency to leak shots to the left and as a result of improved swing consistency his results are starting to trend upwards. The tremendous form of Casey and Poulter is motivating him to improve and with a 2nd and 4th at Muirfield from 4 visits I think he’ll have a decent week.
Freddie Jacobson 1.5pts T10 10-1 Bet 365 Steady Freddie is in-form and likes the course. Great short game and has a 5th and 17th from 3 visits to Muirfield. Can be erratic off the tee, but the tranquil conditions and wide fairways suit his game this week. I’ve only got 10pts to play with, but my advice is lump on at 10-1.
Matt Kuchar 1.5 pts T10 @ 10-1 Bet 365 Two weeks on the trot for Mr Kuchar. What grabs me about him this week is that he is a superb scrambler and can drill putts from 10-15 feet. This is also one of his favourite courses to play. Excellent recent form (14th Players, 39th Byron Nelson, 27th Crowne Plaza) I’ll have another tickle on Kuchar for a Top 10 success.
PW's tips
Hedgehog at the dartboard approach this week. 1 pt each way on the following 5 players, each of whom have a combination of either great Sony Open history or positive predictor scores at 3-figure prices. If any one of these are placed then you'll more than double your money:
Jerry Kelly 110-1 Stan James. Great record in the Sony Open (see Marking Your Card) gives him a sound foundation, as does 2nd place here last year. Missed his last 3 cuts after winning the Zurich Classic, can bounce back to form here at a long price.
Ryuji Imada 150-1 Bet 365. Imada's putter gets him the nod here despite some indifferent form of late.
Charley Hoffman 110-1 Sky Bet. Still in great nick, top 10 at the Valero Texas Open was encouraging. If he can get back in his early-season groove then he'll go close.
Scott Piercy 250-1 Sky Bet. His wayward driving may not be overly punished this week. Will win a tournament at some point soon - let's hope we're on him when he does!
Bubba Watson 110-1 Bet 365. Excellent attacking performance at Quail Hollow, solid at the Players. Could easily improve on his top-25 here in '07.
Good luck to you all this week.