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April 16th-19th 2009
Next Tournament:
SB’s Verizon Heritage 2009 Tips:
A rarity on the PGA Tour this week, a links course. Weather forecast is solid for the week ahead, so this will be a course that doesn’t bare too many teeth. Light winds and sunshine, rather than torrential storms and gales. Course form is important here, as is improving current form, so I’ve gone for players who have a decent record here. After much deliberation I have passed over one of the masters of ‘links’ golf Ernie Els. His price is too short with his current form, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him contending and certainly wouldn’t put off anybody having some ‘in-play’ action on the Big Easy.
My tips are below:
Aaron Baddeley 1pt EW @ 25-1 William Hill. We like the Victorian this week. His form is improving significantly. A superb talent, whose putting and short game is simply superb. Over the past 2 seasons his driving and iron play has been awful. Two weeks ago went back to his original swing coach Dale Lynch, (works with Ogilvy amongst others) and the results have been immediate. Played well at the Masters and loves Harbour Town Golf Links
Kevin Na 1pt EW @ 28-1 Victor Chandler. One of the most improved players on the PGA Tour this year. Always been hugely talented, but mentally fragile. Has added steel to his game and is now far more consistent. Loves coastal golf and like Baddeley has a short game to die for. This could well be his first PGA Tour victory.
Davis Love III 1pt EW @ 45-1 Bet 365. Just missed out on the Masters for the second season in a row and that will hurt Love III. He’s playing well enough this season, but things have not totally clicked. Davis’s record at Harbour Town is superb. He’s a local and lives just up the coast in Virginia. Can contend, great value.
Vaughan Taylor 0.75pt EW @ 90-1 Bet 365. Taylor is one of those streaky players who can click or play very poorly and miss the cut. Has local roots as born up the coast in Virginia and lives in Augusta. Two Top 5s in past three seasons at Harbour Town. Form recently has been ok, so here’s hoping the real Taylor steps forward this week.
Jason Bohn 1.5pts T10 @ 8-1 Stan James. In 2008 Bohn played this ‘segment’ of the PGA Tour well. Played well at the recent Houston Open and finished in the Top 10. The Georgia based Bohn can have a decent week again in South Carolina.
Marc Leishman 1pt T10 @ 25-1 Bet 365. The bookies seem to have over-priced Leishman. It’s a hunch but we think he’ll go well here. Talented rookie Aussie from Melbourne who loves coastal golf, just like near neighbour at home Aaron Baddeley.
PW’s Verizon Heritage 2009 Tips:
The bookies are no doubt still counting their profits from last week (much of which will have come on Sunday with Phil/Tiger getting everyone excited), so let's catch them out this week and get back ahead of the game. A number of players on my shortlist this week: Tim Clark, Lucas Glover, Jim Furyk, John Senden to name a few, although I think my 2 final picks show real promise:
Davis Love III 2.5pts EW @ 45-1 Bet 365. 5 wins here, 10 top-10s speaks for itself. Clear the predictor variables and just weight the Heritage stats and you'll see for yourself. His form at the end of last season running into the Mercedes Benz was outstanding - if this tournament was being played 3 months ago then Love III would be half that price or less. That 45-1 won't be around for long.
Dustin Johnson 1pt EW 100-1 Bet 365; 3pts Top 10 8-1. Exceptionally talented 24-year old from Columbia, South Carolina, who will have an army of local support for this. Won here as 12-year old and also had a good look at the course 6 weeks ago in a 2-day pro-am which he hosted. Played this tournament (MC) in a period last season when he was struggling with his form and driver; is a much better player now with 2 wins under his belt. Won at Pebble Beach a couple of months ago and also has a T10 (Nothern Trust Open) and T11 (Mercedes-Benz) this season; add to that, Davis Love III's last win here was preceded by a win at Pebble Beach as a positive omen. Clear the predictor variables and equally weight the following: Birdies, distance (300 yard drive leaves a wedge on half the holes here), Fed-Ex points (season form), GIR, Putting, Putts, Sand Saves and Scrambling - this ignores history at this event and the very most recent form - proves to me that Johnson has the game to win this.
