Steve Bamford's Tips for the 2011 Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
The PGA Tour stop-off in New Orleans has always been a little bit of a backwater. English Turn previously and now TPC Louisiana never attracted the greatest of fields and a spot prior to the Masters has now been superseded by a late April position prior to The Players championship in a fortnight. However the new tournament positioning, the fact that the course is a Pete Dye design (as are Hilton Head and, more importantly, TPC Sawgrass) and the fact that main sponsor Zurich has thrown more money at the problem, with a total prize pot of $6,400,000 with $1,152,000 to the winner, meant that I was highly surprised by the quality of the field released last Friday evening. A field containing (in order of favouritism) Luke Donald, Nick Watney, Steve Stricker, Justin Rose, Bubba Watson, K.J. Choi, Brandt Snedeker, Rickie Fowler and G-Mac is not to be sniffed at. It’s amazing how the world’s best player’s schedules are often dictated by cold hard cash!
The recent champion’s list here at TPC Louisiana is an ecclesiastic mix: Jason Bohn, Jerry Kelly, Andres Romero, Nick Watney and Tim Petrovic. That’s a real mix of short and long hitters, ball strikers and power bombers, so not much to work with there. Interestingly Romero’s, Watney’s and Petrovic’s wins were their first on the PGA Tour. Taking that a step forward, 65% of the Top 3 finishers since 2005 had never won on the PGA Tour and if you include players with singleton victories to their name the number jumps to a vast 80%. That’s an incredibly strong statistic although the weak nature of previous fields does need to be considered.
The course itself is a longish Par 72 that’s fairly difficult and which certainly has Florida-style overtures. As you’d expect with a Dye design, this is no resort course where scoring is easy. Instead the main defence of this 7,400 yard course is the nature of the Bermuda greens. Greens average 5,700 square feet, which is relatively standard, but they are undulating, which is why precision is premium on approaches. Proximity to hole with iron in-hand is imperative to making birdies.
Form seems to go out of the window in New Orleans as all previous winners at TPC Louisiana have only had a maximum of 2 Top 10 finishes in the season prior to the tournament. I’m not expecting another Brandt Snedeker-type form horse to win this week, so we could well be in for another longer price winner from slightly left field. Indeed 4 of the last 5 winners at TPC Louisiana have been ranked outside of the World’s Top 100 players.
J.J. Henry 1pt EW 80/1
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Texan Henry is in decent nick in 2011 and fits the bill perfectly for TPC Louisiana where experienced “winners” who aren’t prolific thrive. Henry finished 5th here in 2005 and the same again this week will do nicely, but the World 169 has experience of winning on the PGA Tour when he won the Buick Open back in 2006. His form line of 69-19-12-20-41-19 is solid if not spectacular, but what interests me is that three of the Top 20 results were on Bermuda namely at Mayakoba, Copperhead and 12th at Bay hill stands out. I like players this week who have a CV of results on Carolina courses as well as Turning Stone (Par 72), El Cameleon and Riviera - Henry has these characteristics: J.J. was 2nd last year at Turning Stone and 7th at Quail Hollow. Marry that with a 2nd at Mayakoba in 2009 and 4th at Sedgefield in 2008 and I’m starting to think that Henry will have “the eye” for the course this week. I get more excited when I see that Henry’s only Top 10 in 2011 to-date was at Riviera. RESULT: M/C
Webb Simpson 1pt EW
55/1
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I tipped up Simpson last week and although he didn’t deliver at 50s another Top 15 was a decent result. He actually made it to 3rd place on Saturday but couldn’t cope with the local expectation and 3 double bogeys across the first 3 days was too much despite an impressive putting display and 16 birdies plus an eagle in total. TPC Louisiana won’t punish Simpson as much this week. What really impresses me with Simpson at the moment is his form on Bermuda and I can see a first win just being around the corner. Recent Bermuda form of 14(Hilton)-16-MC-2(Copperhead)-24-8-13-40-4(TPC Summerlin) is crazily impressive. RESULT: 2nd, Lost In Playoff
Charles Howell III 1pt EW
50/1 with
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On paper this week Howell III looks as tasty as a Chicken Madras with Sag Aloo, Pilau Rice and some popadoms with those yummy dips. No wonder he’s been “nibbled” in from 55/1 this week to a general 40/1, so like Simpson I’d get on-board as quickly as possible with Ladbrokes who are the only firm still offering 50s. I’ve waxed lyrically about World Number 131 Howell in the past. How he’s too good not to win in America soon and I genuinely believe that and the Zurich Classic is EXACTLY the kind of tournament he’ll triumph in. A form line of MC-8-19-38 (typically when I had him on a 38 spread)-MC-10-13 is efficient and matches off recent winners like Bohn and Kelly. In fact, excluding last week’s missed cut at Hilton Head, Charlie has a Bermuda form line of 8-38-10-13-13...impressive stuff, especially when you marry that too his New Orleans history. 2nd here at TPC Louisiana in 2009 allied to English Turn finishes of 2nd(06), 5th(04) and 7th(01). Interestingly Howell’s last win of 2 was at Riviera (which fits) in 2007 and Snedeker’s triumph last week should inspire. RESULT: T13
David Toms 1pt EW 35/1
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Toms is a true Bermuda specialist who’s very much on home turf this week. Louisiana’s finest always comes under the spotlight of the national press at his local event and you can hardly say he’s disappointed! His emotional win at English Turn in 2001 was the stuff of legend and only as recently as 2009 he finished 5th. What truly grabs me about the World No. 81 is his incredible Bermuda prowess and boy he’s due a win. A 12-time winner including the 2001 PGA and 2005 World Matchplay championships, 4 of his victories since 2000 have been on Bermuda. You can add to that another highly relevant win at Quail Hollow in 2003 which fits the bill perfectly. Moving to now David finished a credible 24th last time out at Augusta and his recent Bermuda form is 3(Bay Hill)-37-5-MC-33-3(Sea Island)-11. Wow! More fuel to the fire was his 2nd place finish last season at Sedgefield, a course last year’s winner Bohn thrives at. RESULT: T18
Jerry Kelly 1pt EW 90/1
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Then it suddenly came to me……. I’m looking for a profile of a particular player. Somebody ranked say 100 to 150, who's in OK but not spectacular form on Bermuda, say 3 Top 20 finishes which include a couple of Top 10s. Some decent form around TPC Louisiana would be idyllic. Form at key tracks like El Cameleon, Sedgefield, Riviera, Turning Stone, Muirfield and the Carolina tracks would be fantastic and a player who isn’t prolific but knows how to get the job done. If I was being really selective a Top 5 at Augusta on their CV would be even better. Sometimes the truth just stares you in the face. Step forward Jelly Kelly at a whopping 90/1! RESULT: M/C
Ton Plus EW Tips: Tim Petrovic 125/1
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This journeyman comes alive from April onwards when he hit’s his favoured Carolina and Southern State tracks and when he realises he’s got some catching up to do to keep his PGA Tour card for another season. Why will 2011 be any different? Popped up with a Top 20 finish from nowhere at Houston earlier this month and backed that up with a solid performance last week. Won here in 2005 and has finishes of 7th, 11th and 24th since at TPC Louisiana. RESULT: M/C
Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 19:20BST 26.4.11 but naturally subject to fluctuation.
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2012 Zurich Classic Of New Orleans Tips
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