Paul Williams's tips for the 2010 Joburg Open
The final tournament of 4 in South Africa takes us to the Royal Johannesburg and Kensington Golf Club where Anders Hansen defends his trophy. This is the fourth outing for this tournament so we at least have some course history and analysis this week to help us with our picks. Two bookmaker offers of note this week before we start:
1) Totesport are going each way 1-6 players this week, plus they're offering some great prices. On top of this, they're offering up to £60 of free bets when you open an account via this link: Totesport Offer
2) Extrabet are paying out in full if your selection finishes tied for a top-5, top-10 or top-20 finish. This is critical to a golf punter as there are often lots of players who tie for a position, resulting in a reduced payout. This would have turned last week's payout of 13.2 points on Bothma to 22 points. Plus they're offering a total of £320 in bonuses when you open a new account via this link: Extrabet Offer
This week's tournament is played over the East and West courses which each present a very different challenge to the 206 entrants: the first 2 days alternate between the 2 courses; following the cut, the East course alone hosts the weekend's finale. The West course is the easier of the 2 at 7,146 yards (par 71) featuring generous greens to those who can find the fairways; the East course is much tighter where high Greens In Regulation is a prerequisite, plus at 7,590 (par 71) is the longest on the European Tour.
All 3 of the previous winners are playing: 2009 winner Anders Hansen is available at 14/1 with Boylesports; 2008 winner Richard Sterne is also available at 14/1 with Totesport; 2007 winner Ariel Canete is a massive 125/1 with Paddy Power. With such a large field, there's loads of value out there....if you've got any thoughts why not share them with us on Twitter or on our Facebook group?
Here's my tips for this week:
Richard Sterne 3 points EW @14/1 Totesport. RESULT: T44
South African Sterne will be keen to emulate the winning performance of last week's victor Charl Schwartzel in a tournament he's already won. Sterne is a classy player who comes into form in streaky patches often culminating in a win; indeed he won 2 tournaments back-to-back last year before running out of steam a little and finishing 12th here. Has finished inside the top 20 in each of the first 3 tournaments this season, including a never-nearer T13 last week. He's 33 under par for his last 12 rounds and of course won here back in 2008. A short price in a large field, however he's still good value to take this title back from Anders Hansen.
Trevor Fisher Jr 2pts Top 10 @ 12/1 Extrabet. RESULT: T51
Fisher Jr played a blinder last week to finish in a tie for 4th after opening up with a pair of 66's - clearly the bookies think that was a fluke and have priced him accordingly this week, however if we look a bit deeper there's room for optimism. In 2008 he finished in a tie for 25th with his Friday round costing him a top-10 finish; last year he equalled the course record with a 63 on Thursday before blowing up on Friday. Is more experienced now, and clearly hitting some form. Well worth a punt at 12/1, particularly as Extrabet payout in full if he's tied for 10th.
James Morrison 2pts Top 20@ 6/1 Paddy Power. RESULT: Missed Cut
Morrison is a bit of a punt here, however the rookie from Chertsey is rapidly getting his head around the European Tour with a T4 finish last week and a 17-under total. Played here last year whilst competing on the Challenge Tour and finished inside the top 40 despite shooting +3 over the weekend. 6/1 for a top 20 is a cracking price in my view.
All odds and bookmaker offer correct at 21:30GMT 12.1.10 but naturally subject to fluctuation.