Paul Williams' tips for the 2010 Open de Andalucia:
Finally we move back to the continent of Europe and once again it brings us to a course with little history to help us in our quest to beat the bookies - good job we've got the predictor to help us out then!
In Morocco the top 5 predictor tips produced the tournament winner once again- the 5th time in 12 tournaments this season. If you'd placed a £10 E/W bet on the top 5 from each of these 12 tournaments then you'd currently be £856 in profit! For more details click here.
So what do we know about the Open de Andalucia which will help us get another result this week? This is the 4th instalment of the current Open de Andalucia tournament, although there is a bit more course history to dig through in the shape of the Turespana Masters Open de Andalucia which was played between 1992-1995 and again in 1999 which, perhaps of importance, was played at the same course (before the recent changes) in 92 and 99. If you want to see the results from the 1999 tournament then click here. If we are to assume that the same attributes are required to win on the revamped design then ball-striking has to be key - Jimenez hit 86% of fairways and 83% of greens on his way to a 24-under par and a 4-shot victory.
Having said that, the fairways are wide so expect a general improvement in accuracy stats anyway. Greens are expected to be reasonably slow (10'2'' on the stimpmeter) and receptive following a wet winter. Generally dry weather is expected, although Thursday and Friday are expected to be breezy, particularly in the mornings and if anything Friday morning is expected to be the windiest. First Round Leader punters should pick players who are out very late on Thursday in my view.
At a par of 70 and a little over 6,800 yards, this course will be more about shot placement, GIR and heavy scoring. Previous winners have been in reasonable form with recent top-40 finishes however blistering recent form hasn't been a factor. The bunkers are particularly nasty after so much rain so positive bunker play is a must in my view.
Putting all of this together I have upweighted accordingly and loaded up the predictor. Here's my tips:
I was tweeting about Pablo Martin yesterday when you could still get 80/1 about him winning this. 66/1 is the best you'll get now and if Chapman tips him in the Post then this will be 50/1 or shorter. Local lad who has played this course umpteen times and knows it like the back of his hand. Won this season's curtain raiser before sadly losing his father in January - understandably been off the boil since. Got back into the swing of things last week with a top-40 and I'm expecting an emotional return to form this week.
Horsey's putter is hot this year - if he can get his irons onto the green then he'll go very well this week. Ignore last year's disaster at a different course - this is much more to his liking and his form is strong in the build up with a top 10 in Abu Dhabi and solid top-20s in Qatar and Dubai.
Last week's winner ranks highly on the predictor still as he's got all the qualities to do well here. This will go one of 2 ways - Davies will either miss the cut badly or be right up there...
The big Swede has done well around these parts in the past - 2nd in Andalucia in 2007, albeit on a different course, is testament to that. The generous fairways will be to his liking this year leaving him to prosper from his stronger ironplay and putting. In some good form this season too with top-7 finishes in India and South Africa.
This week's host clearly has a taste for playing in Spain and already has a win on this course back in 1999. Has been in the USA since his win in Dubai - has to be a strong fancy to win here.
Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 10:00GMT 23.3.10 but naturally subject to fluctuation