Phoenix Open - Double Your Money!

Paul Williams's Phoenix Open Double Your Money Special

With no tournament on the European Tour this week to keep me out of trouble, I've been looking at ways to make a profit with the lowest possible risk this week. Of course any kind of betting on a tournament with 140-odd players carries some risk, however with some careful planning I think there's a way! Anyway, here's the plan:

Step 1, have an Extrabet account ready to use - this is important for these bets. If you haven't got an Extrabet account then you can open a new one here: going via this link will qualify you for a £100 basket of free fixed-odds bets and £100 casino bonus.

Step 2, pick 3 players in the Extrabet top-20 market with odds of 5/1 or longer. The reason that you place these with Extrabet is that there's no reduction for ties in their rules - so if your player ties with any other players for 20th spot then you still get full returns at the quoted price. This happens more regularly than you might expect! Place a level stake on each, ie £10, or whatever suits you.

Step 3, use the predictor to work out those players who are most likely to finish well at a long price. Typically you need to be looking at outright odds of 150/1 or longer to get a 5/1 top-20 price although there's no hard and fast rule here, you'll need to check the price with Extrabet via this link.

Step 4, if any one of your 3 players finishes in the top 20 or a tie for 20th then you'll at least double your money!

On that basis, here's my 3 picks. If you have a different 3 why not share them with us on Twitter or Facebook via the links at the top of this page?

Alex Cejka 13/2 Top-20 finish. Cejka can only be described as streaky, however this can work to our advantage. His career is littered with consecutive missed cuts interspersed with streaks of better form - quite often a top 10 or top 20 is followed by another 1 or 2 before he disappears to obscurity once again. His results this season read MC, MC, MC, T10 - the latter being at Pebble Beach a fortnight ago which was his last outing. So, on my reasoning, he can finish well again this week before going off the boil again in March. His results in this event read T7, T14, WD, T53, MC, MC, MC....nothing unusual there then! RESULT: M/C

Scott McCarron 13/2 Top-20 finish. McCarron has settled his fued with Phil Mickelson over his use of the Ping wedge and can now concentrate on getting back on track with his golf. Showed a significant improvement in form at Pebble Beach with a T21 finish and importantly hit more than 3/4 of all fairways (his key strength) - something that will be even more important this week with the heavy rough. Has 4 top 20 finishes in this event from 13 starts to date. RESULT: T62

Jeff Maggert 6/1 Top-20 finish. Maggert is another who bases his game on accuracy and, once again, with the rough up this week that could be a potent weapon. Has shown steady improvement this season and finished in a paying position (from our perspective) last week at the Mayakoba. Identical record to McCarron here with 4 top 20 finishes from 13 starts, including a T-10 here last year. RESULT: T43

Good Luck!!