In this day and age of statistics it’s interesting to look at what inbound player skill strengths, if any, are particularly shared by U.S. Open winners. Naturally this cannot be an exact science as the U.S. Open moves from course-to-course, with venues changing in terms of key requirements from the eventual winner. Nothing highlights that more than a striking difference between Shinnecock Hills, Pebble Beach, Winged Foot, Torrey Pines, Brookline, Los Angeles Country Club, Pinehurst Number 2 and Oakmont over the past 8 U.S. Open renewals. However there are patterns which are not exact, but definitely highlight trends.
For instance 14 of the last 19 winners of the U.S. Open ranked in the top 16 in the All-Round skill category in their last appearance. It’s also fact that no U.S. Open winner over the same timescale has been outside the top 18 for Greens in Regulation in the week they won. Naturally hitting your irons and approaches well is a huge upside.
But if we’re looking for strong skill sets in a winner’s previous appearance, we actually need to look for top-level driving. In Wyndham Clark, Matt Fitzpatrick, Brooks Koepka (x2), Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Martin Kaymer and Justin Rose we have 8 players who ranked 1st, 18th, 3rd, 25th, 1st, 1st, 16th, 1st and 8th for Total Driving in their previous appearance. For Martin Kaymer that happened to be at Wentworth, so he has to be excluded from the Strokes Gained stat angle, but that Total Driving number also translates very well to Strokes Gained Off the Tee.
Here Fitzpatrick (2nd), DeChambeau (16th), Koepka (5th), Koepka (2nd), Johnson (4th), Spieth (5th) and Rose (13th) clearly had real confidence with the driver when they arrived at Brookline, Torrey Pines, Winged Foot, Shinnecock Hills, Erin Hills, Oakmont, Chambers Bay and Merion respectively. If the European Tour had a consistent Strokes Gained Stat back in 2014, Kaymer would have been very close to the top of it at Wentworth as well.
If we go back to 2010 and look at Graeme McDowell’s lead in to his U.S. Open victory, he played the Wales Open on the European Tour, which he won. That week he topped Greens in Regulation at 80.6%, was 15th for Total Driving and was 2nd in the All-Round category.
2019 U.S. Open champion Gary Woodland was 52nd in his previous appearance at the Memorial Tournament, which showed absolutely no hint of a Pebble Beach victory, but even with Woodland the All-Round, Total Driving and Strokes Gained Off The Tee angle works when you extrapolate a little. Prior to Muirfield Village, Gary had finished 8th at the PGA Championship – that was his second Major top 10 in his last 3 attempts. At Bethpage Black he’d ranked 4th for All-Round, 7th for Total Driving and 7th for Strokes Gained Off The Tee.
Now 2020 champion Bryson DeChambeau muddies the waters again, although in Covid times it’s worth noting it was played in mid-September. DeChambeau undoubtedly struggled with his All-Round came on his previous outing at East Lake. However both his Strokes Gained Off the Tee and Greens in Regulation numbers were in decent enough shape.
Covid again impacts the trend with Jon Rahm in 2021. Remember Rahm was leading the Memorial Tournament by 6 shots heading into Sunday when he tested positive for Covid-19 and had to withdraw. To say he was miffed was an understatement. Look at his numbers through 54 holes and, as you would expect, they were top drawer. 1st for Strokes Gained Off the Tee, 3rd for Total Driving and 1st for All-Round at the time of withdrawal, safe to say Jon was at the very peak of his powers and I’m inclined to use those numbers for U.S. Open research purposes ongoing.
2022 champion Matt Fitzpatrick played the week before the U.S. Open at the RBC Canadian Open at St George’s G&CC in Toronto, where he finished in 10th spot. 2nd for Strokes Gained Off the Tee, 18th for Total Driving and 7th for All-Round, marked him as a top contender to capture his first Major Championship in Massachusetts a week later.
2023 champion Wyndham Clark last year played the Memorial Tournament a fortnight before the Los Angeles Country Club-hosted U.S. Open. 1st for Total Driving (translated to 40th for Off the Tee incredibly), 2nd for Greens in Regulation and 3rd for All-Round was a beacon that if you overlooked his lack of Major experience. He would go on to win at a whopping 66/1.
Bryson DeChambeau in 2024 played LIV Houston the week before the Pinehurst Number 2-hosted US Open. As per 2020, his lead in event wasn’t exactly black and white in terms of indicators of impeding success, but like many US Open winners he was top 16 for All-Round.
And to bring this full circle, J.J Spaun missed the cut in his previous appearance at the Memorial Tournament, which showed absolutely no hint of an Oakmont victory, but even with Spaun the All-Round and Total Driving angle works when you extrapolate a little. Prior to Muirfield Village, J.J. had finished 6th at the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club, where he’d ranked 16th for All-Round, 28th for Total Driving and 3rd for Tee to Green.