US Open Longshots

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Steve Bamford's 2018 US Open Longshots Tips. Follow Steve on twitter: @bamfordgolf

Picking out some of the best outsiders for the US Open is one of my favourite pieces to write all year. Fact is, with all the focus on the top 10 in the betting, there's still value to be found if you dig deep enough into the betting market at Shinnecock Hills this week.

The US Open, year after year, produces big priced contenders. The last few years have generally produced some tasty 3-figure each-way places or better:

2018 Masters Each-Way Betting Options

This is the 10th US Open that we've covered at Golf Betting System. We've never seen so many each-way places available to punters, but importantly we've also never seen the amount of options available. That's an important point, as from as many as 10 places each-way 1/5 odds to the very standard 5 places at 1/4 odds are available. Now the each-way terms available this week make for an interesting dilemma - do you stick rigidly to 5 places each way and grab a top price on an outsider, or do you accept a slightly reduced price in exchange for more favourable each-way terms? Naturally it's a personal decision, so for the purpose of this piece we will list the options available plus list multiple prices as necessary to highlight based upon variations in odds offered.

Coral for the second Major Championship in succession have gone 10 places each-way 1/5 odds at the 2018 US Open. It's well worth noting with Coral that new customers who open an account via Golf Betting System receive a boosted £30 or €30 in free bets promotion, which is £10 or €10 more than Coral offer directly:

coral Coral are offering 10 places each-way at the 2018 US Open! Coral via Golf Betting System offer new customers a freshly boosted Bet £/€10 Get £/€30 of free bets sportsbook account opening offer. 18+, T&Cs apply: No promo code required – use this qualifying link to claim.

Paddy Power have matched Coral by also going a record-breaking 10 places each-way at 1/5 odds at Shinnecock Hills. Their £/€20 risk-free bet, returned in cash for new customers, is available below.

paddy power Paddy Power have gone 10 places EW at 1/5 odds plus get a £/€20 risk-free bet for new accounts using code YSKA01 - details here.

In terms of other extended each-way place offers, bet365 are going 8 places each way at 1/5 odds with some very attractive odds on offer too:

bet365 bet365 have gone 8 places EW at 1/5 odds, plus get up to £100 in Bet Credits for new accounts using code SPORT100 - details here.

Whilst all of these bookmakers are giving us additional each-way places at 1/5 odds, Ladbrokes have set out their stall clearly paying the standard 5 places each-way at 1/4 odds. On the other side of the coin though, Ladbrokes are offering top, market-leading odds across a vast number of players in the field from 66/1 and above.

Here's my pick of the bunch at longer prices:

Gary Woodland 1pt EW 150/1 with Bet365 *For the latest bet365 Opening Account Offer details see below, 8 places EW 1/5 odds.

Gary Woodland has to be the first on board when it comes to longshots with 8 places each-way available at bet365. There's lots to like about the 34 year-old who won his 3rd PGA Tour title at TPC Scottsdale in February. Shinnecock Hills and the US Open in general is long ball-striker friendly and a liking for Poa Annua greens seems a must. So Woodland ticks both of those boxes this week. Torrey Pines is always a strong indicator of Poa Annua positive players and Woodland has 1 top-10 and 3 more top-20s in San Diego. That could be a lot better as the Kansas man was 54-hole leader there in 2014, 3rd after 54 holes in 2016 and 5th after 54 holes this year. 5th at the AT&T Pebble Beach in 2016, which again features Poa Annua, Gary is undoubtedly west coast friendly and that has to be a huge positive this week. He also goes well in Up-State United States and in the Big Apple area specifically. 2nd at Liberty National Golf Club in 2013 could have been Woodland's biggest tournament victory, but it's the 4th place at US Open venue Bethpage Black which grabs my attention, as again that featured pure Poa Annua greens.

He undoubtedly likes "big boy" golf courses and his first win was at Copperhead in 2011, a course which 2004 US Open Champion Retief Goosen has won at twice in his career. 3rd (2015), 6th (2017) and 7th (2018) at Waialae, plus 2nd at El Camaleon (2016) are results which again highlight that he can play by the coast and his 12th at Troon in 2016 is his equal best Major Championship finish with the long par 70 at Atlanta Athletic in 2011. But it was his play at the Memorial Tournament on his last start which really grabbed my attention. 23rd overall, Woodland was 8th for Greens in Regulation, 5th for Total Driving, 5th for Strokes Gained Off the Tee and 3rd for All-Round. With a significant breeze in the forecast, the wind-positive OWGR No.40 should love the Shinnecock test.

Keegan Bradley 1pt EW 150/1 with Get a £30 free bet** for new customers. 18+, T&Cs apply. (8 EW, 1/5 odds).

Keegan Bradley, like Woodland, jumps off the page this week. The 2011 PGA Championship winner, Bradley seems to be playing better and better in 2018 and is lifting himself into contention far more often. 23rd last time out at Muirfield Village, following a final round 66 which lifted Keegan into 7th place at The Players Championship prior to that, this season has also seen Bradley finish 2nd at the CIMB Classic and 5th at the Farmers Insurance Open, but we'll go back to that in a short while. Keegan was born in nearby Vermont, grew up in Massachusetts and went to St Johns University in Queens. So his association with the area is strong and despite only playing Shinnecock Hills infrequently, he yesterday (Monday) described the course as one that will suit him. That makes sense from a number of perspectives. Growing up in the north-east of the United States, Bradley has always been comfortable on Poa Annua greens. 3 top-25s at Torrey Pines on top of 4th (2017) and 5th (2018) highlight a player happy by the coast on a US Open tough track. 2nd (2012) and 4th (2015) at Riviera Country Club and 1st (2012), 2nd (2013) and 4th (2014) at Firestone South also make lots of sense from a long, tough-track featuring Poa Annua perspective. But Keegan also has excellent associations with Coore and Crenshaw designs where 3 appearances have garnered 16th (2012) and 4th (2013) at Kapalua plus 4th in the US Open played at Pinehurst Number 2. Certainly has the game to play well here at Shinnecock - 46th Strokes Gained Off the Tee, 2nd Strokes Gained on Approach, 16th for Greens in Regulation season-long statistics - and his numbers last time out at the Memorial Tournament were impressive - 3rd Greens in Regulation, 4th Total Driving, 4th Strokes Gained Off the Tee and 20th All-Round.

Brandt Snedeker 1pt EW 110/1 with Bet365 *For the latest bet365 Opening Account Offer details see below, 8 places EW 1/5 odds.

Coastal golf is in Brandt Snedeker's DNA and the look and feel of Shinnecock Hills will undoubtedly be to the Tennessee man's liking this week. Fresh from a -8/62 at TPC Southwind which helped to secure 6th, his best finish on the PGA Tour in 2018, Snedeker will arrive on Long Island with some much needed confidence. A selection of colleague Paul Williams in this week's podcast, I'm all over the OWGR World Number 89 who has the Jeff Maggert from 2004 feel about him. 9 top-10 finishes in Major Championships since 2008, 3rd (2008), 6th (2013) and 10th (2017) at Augusta shows that Sneds can get on at long courses. 3rd at Royal Lytham in 2012 behind Ernie Els shows a links pedigree and his record in the U.S. Open is fantastic. 9th at Torrey Pines (2008), 8th at Pebble Beach (2010), 9th at Pinehurst No2 (2014), 8th at Chambers Bay (2015) and 9th at Erin Hills (2017) is a fantastic record. Clearly coastal golf is in his blood and it's worth recognising that 5 of his 8 PGA Tour victories have come by the coast at Harbour Town (2011), Torrey Pines (2012), Pebble Beach (2013), Pebble Beach (2015) and Torrey Pines (2016). Now Shinnecock Hills is not a genuine coastal links, but it's look and feel is extremely links-like and a momentum player like Snedeker is well worth latching onto at triple-digits. 2nd at the 2012 Barclays tournament played 60 miles down the road at 2009 US Open host course Bethpage Black again makes loads of sense as that course features Poa Annua greens. Indeed over the past 5 years on the PGA Tour, Snedeker ranks 3rd in my analysis across this field for finishes on pure Poa Annua greens, beaten by only Jason Day and Dustin Johnson.

For the latest World Cup promotions and offers read our World Cup 2018 Offers page.

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 11:40BST 12.6.18 but naturally subject to fluctuation. Author Steve Bamford, Find us on Google+

* bet365 New Customer Offer - Significant Terms: New Customers only. Up to £100 in Bet Credits. Sign up, deposit £5 or more to your account and bet365 will match your qualifying deposit in Bet Credits when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply - claim your offer here using bonus code SPORT100 during registration.

** Betway New Customer Offer - Significant Terms: New UK & Ireland customers only. Min deposit: £10. First deposit matched up to £30. 1x wagering at odds of 1.75+ to unlock Free Bet. Credit Card, Debit Card and PayPal deposits only. Full terms apply.

             

 

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