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Steve Bamford's tips for the 2011 BMW Championship. Follow us on Twitter: @golfbetting
It’s great to be back after a week on the bench and the BMW Championship at the classical Cog Hill which will provide a stern test for the last 70 players in the FedEx Cup standings. I’ll start by throwing some names at you: Mark Leishman, Ryan Moore and Kevin Na. What’s he on about now? Well the BMW Championship marks an opportunity where players score large Each Way results at big prices. Leishman returned a 150/1 EW return in 2009 with the 2 Americans jumping on the bandwagon last year with 125/1 place results. We all love a longshot so read my BMW Top Longshots which could earn you a few quid this week for low outlay!
The BMW Championship marks the halfway stage of the FedEx Cup Play Offs. 55 players have already packed their bags but now the real fun starts with only the top 30 players progressing to the Tour Championship in Georgia next week. 21 players are “locked in” for the trip to East Lake next week leaving 9 spots up for grabs between 69 players. Defending champion Jim Furyk, Y.E. Yang, Masters Champion Charl Schwartzel, Sergio Garcia, Zach Johnson, Ernie Els, Robert Karlsson, Geoff Ogilvy and Camilo Villegas all have differing levels of work to do to grab a place in the Top 30. It's last chance saloon for all these players and be very sure that they all want to make Atlanta where they can make serious money in the final FedEx standings.
Cog Hill is a lengthy +7,300 yard Par 71 which in 2008 was Re-Designed by Rees Jones, whose courses include Aronimink, Redstone, Torrey Pines, East Lake (home of the Tour Championship) + recent major stop offs Atlanta Athletic, Congressional, Oakland Hills, Bethpage and Hazeltine. Jones has ‘toughened’ the test at Cog Hill, where only 4 players made it into double digit red numbers in 2009 and where Dustin Johnson won with only a -9 total last year. The condition of the greens was poor last year so expect slightly lower scoring this week and I’d say -14 to -15 will be the likely contending target. The bent greens are in great nick, but penal rough and tree lined fairways will greet those who are wayward off the tee. Also worthy of note is that the limited 70 man field dictates that there will be no cut line after 36 holes this week.
Jim Furyk 1pt EW 25/1 with
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Furyk is a northern state classical course monster who needs at least a Top 10 finish to grab a spot at East Lake and consolidate an automatic spot in Fred Couples' Presidents Cup team. As defending FedEx Cup champion and, most importantly, an honourable chap, I’m of the mindset that Furyk will be totally focussed on delivering a contending performance this week. Furyk has joined the recent exodus to the belly putter and he’s starting to make putts again, but his all-round play from tee-to-green has ratcheted up since Firestone and his recent form line is a progressive 6-52-9-39. On top of that the Pennsylvanian feels ever so comfortable in Michigan where his last 5 visits to Cog Hill have delivered 1st (05), 4th (06), 14th (07), 2nd (09) and 15th (10). His 6th place at the low scoring TPC Boston last time out got my alarm bells ringing as that was Furyk’s best ever performance at a track that doesn’t suit. Expect bigger things this week from the Florida-based bent-positive Furyk. RESULT: T22
Brandt Snedeker 1pt EW 33/1 with
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2007: 3rd Torrey Pines, 1st Sedgefield 2008: 3rd Augusta, 9th US Open (Torrey Pines) 2009: 5th Congressional, 5th Glen Abbey, 5th Sedgefield, 10th Cog Hill (2nd after 56 holes) 2010: 2nd Torrey Pines, 8th US Open (Pebble Beach), 5th TPC Boston 2011: 4th Copperhead 4th TPC San Antonio, 1st Hilton Head, 3rd Plainfield, 3rd TPC Boston. Getting the picture? Here’s an in-form player who plays both technical and classical courses beautifully. Sneders has always been a momentum player and he is desperate to get into Couples' Presidents Cup team, where he can only guarantee a spot by qualifying automatically. Guess what he sit’s in 11th just behind Furyk and Toms. Expect fireworks from the Nashville, Tennessee boy. RESULT: T22
Camilo Villegas 1pt EW 40/1 with
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The Florida-based Colombian, like Furyk and Snedeker, will be highly motivated this week for a number of reasons. Camilo sits in 47th place in the FedEx Cup standings and that means that he requires at least an Each Way paying finish to grab a spot at East Lake. “Spiderman” only made the Playoffs by finishing 9th at Sedgefield so his progress in recent weeks has been marked and that’s down to his form on the greens where the belly putter has started to work and he’s making putts. Indeed his -12 and -14 totals at Sedgefield and Plainfield respectively were his first double digit red number totals since PGA National last year where he won his 3rd PGA Tour tournament. Like Snedeker, Camilo has always been a momentum player and his recent form line reads 25-6-9. A Top 3 here also makes a place in Greg Norman’s International Presidents Cup team a distinct possibility. His last 3 appearances at Cog Hill have produced 7th (07), 8th (09) and 11th (10) placed finishes and he always plays well in Great Lakes country and on Rees Jones re-designs. Crack on! RESULT: T6
Vijay Singh 1pt EW 70/1
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Vijay may have let me down in Boston as 3 contending weeks proved far too much, but again he has everything to gain this week. He’s also jumped from 35/1 to 70/1 on the basis of a single missed cut! 14th place in the FedEx Cup guarantees a spot at the Tour Championship but in my mind his FedEx Cup challenge is a by-product of 3 things: 1) His desire to qualify for the Presidents Cup 2) His love of the belly putter. 3) He’s finally pain free allowing the strict practice routine his play is built upon. On a classical course where keeping the ball in-play is imperative, Singh should thrive. 2nd at Riviera and 9th at Quail Hollow earlier in 2011 highlight to me that the classical nature of Cog Hill will be right up Vijay’s street this week. Adding more fuel to the flames is last year's 24th place finish which included 2 double bogeys in a 2nd round +6 77. Take those away and Singh would have been tied for 3rd. Singh for me is a due a win SOON and on the basis that his last wins have been accumulated in Massachusetts, New Jersey and Ohio, the Ponte Vedra based Singh will be looking forward to a return to the Great Lakes area where he won the PGA Championship in 2004 at Whistling Straits. RESULT: T67
Kyle Stanley 1pt EW 100/1 with
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Wisconsin native Stanley, who studied in South Carolina, should be looking forward to his visit to Illinois’ Cog Hill. The PGA Tour rookie has impressed in his first season and whilst fellow rookies Keegan Bradley, Johnny Vegas, Chris Kirk, Scott Stallings and Brendan Steele have rightly taken the plaudits, Stanley has constructed a superb debut season which puts him on the verge of a Tour Championship appearance if he finishes in the Top 15. Early 2011 finishes of 13th at El Camaleon and an eye catching 12th at Bay Hill highlighted that this guy could play on tough courses. A mid season slump then endangered Stanley’s playing privileges but a semi-contending performance at Aronimink (Pennsylvania) was followed by 2nd behind Steve Stricker at Deere Run (Illinois). Further Top 10s at the classical TPC Old White (Virginia) and last time out at TPC Boston (Massachusetts) show a player who is comfortable on northern bent greened golf courses a little like Mark Leishman (remember what I said at the top of the column). Have a little dabble on Stanley who could well be in the mix on Sunday. RESULT: T22
Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:45BST 13.9.11 but naturally subject to fluctuation.
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