Steve Bamford’s Valero Texas Open Predictions
Key assets for this week at La Cantera GC in San Antonio are tee to green accuracy, strong wind play and a liking for Bermuda greens. Add all those attributes together and the fact that Florida and Texas based players thrive here is unmistakable. The facts are that the US has produced the last 16 consecutive winners here and my selections won’t argue with that, although I’ve also gone with a Swede! With a forecast for winds +15mph over the weekend and heavy rain, hardy element players in my opinion will come to the top of the leaderboard at this incredibly short but extremely undulating course.
I’m on the search for value this week and ignoring the usual candidates like Zach Johnson, Anthony Kim and Justin Leonard who are top of this week’s predictor model.
My tips are below:
Mark Wilson 1pt EW @ 50-1 Paddy Power. Look at this Illinois based player’s record and you see one major theme. He performs at tracks where accuracy is required and where the elements are tough. Take his victory in Mexico this season, where the wind was a tremendous factor. Wilson is an extremely capable US player who has a decent record around La Cantera. Offers decent value at 50-1.
Freddie Jacobson 1pt EW @ 66-1 Ladbrokes. Started the season poorly, but his form curve is certainly on an upward trajectory. The Swede who is based in Naples Florida has 2 Top 20 finishes from previous visits to La Cantera so knows the course enough. His 5th at the Honda Classic in windy conditions jumps out this season as did 11th at Quail Hollow 2 weeks ago. Add to that the fact that Swedes play this course well and I can see ‘ready steady’ contending.
Dustin Johnson 0.75pt EW @ 70-1 General. La Cantera like Dustin Johnson can be mis-read. Accuracy off the tee is vitally important, but so can be distance. The Top 3 in 2008 averaged over 300 yds in driving distance. Dustin’s game is also a surprise when you look at his stats. In the modern game of golf Johnson truly is a ‘power bomber’ and his accuracy and especially his superb GIR% isn’t truly appreciated. With a 15th here on his first visit I’ll take the 70-1 on offer.
JJ Henry 0.75pt EW @ 80 -1 Ladbrokes. Which JJ will turn up this week? Consistent week on week performances are not in JJ’s repertoire. Let’s face it the term ‘streaky’ was made for the Texas resident. However when he touches down on a course he likes he can play superb golf. Close to home this week and on a course he loves. His recent record reads: 58, 6, 5, 5 29, 34, 2. A positive wind player who I like this week.
Chris Stroud 1.5pts T10 @ 8-1 Bet 365. As we often point out in Marking Your Card some players just perform on courses they know. Houston resident Stroud fits this category perfectly. A pair of 6th places in 2007 and 2008 jump out of the page and playing well enough in 2009 to make it 3 Top 10s in a row.
D.A. Points 1.5pts T10 @ 10/1 Stan James. Nationwide Tour graduate Points is one of those players that attract no attention at all, but his record in 2009 is superbly consistent. D.A. already has $454,000 in the bank and stands 80th in the FedEx Cup. The Florida resident is also a wind positive players as 9th at the Honda Classic and Puerto Rico prove. 15th here in 2006 shows like lots of Florida golfers he has ‘the eyes’ for La Cantera.
PW's tips:
I'd just finished my paragraph on why Brian Gay was going to walk this when I spotted he'd pulled out! Never mind, some even better prices below:
Briny Baird, 2 pts EW 60-1 Paddy Power: Last week's missed cut could be a blessing in disguise as he'll be fresh for this. Very tidy on the par 4s for this year to date (12th, net -1 overall), his solid tee-to-green game (11th) will be rewarded if he putts like he did at the Heritage. New putting style that will reap dividends at some point in the season; with a weak field around him he can profit at a great price. Has never excelled in this tournament, however has shot 66s and 67s regularly flanked by the odd 74 which has taken him out of contention.
Daniel Chopra, 1pt EW 40-1 General: Streaky player who showed some great glimpses of form last week; this is easier. Finished 3rd here 2 seasons back and has the ability to make the 20+ birdies required here to get firmly in contention. Has a home in Florida which qualifies him from our Marking Your Card article. His 2 career wins have both been at 18-under par - if he hit's that score again this week then he'll take first prize.
Tim Herron, 1pt EW 125-1 Skybet: Time for lumpy to get back to form on a course he's very familiar with, with a win and a couple of top 10s. T12 last year equals his bet effort this season at the Sony, he's better than that.
Eric Axley, 0.5pts EW 150-1 First round leader. This strategy will pay dividends very soon! The scene of Axley's only triumph to date in 2006 - his early season form has shocking but he's steadily improving with the driver, which is his key weakness - his putting is on a par with Baddeley at his best. Capable of a 62; equally capable of a 77, hence the price...
Alex Cejka, 0.5pts EW 66-1 First round leader. May have something to prove early on after last week's nosebleed - just a hunch that he'll come out all guns blazing then realise he's knackered come round 2 and shot 79 again.
And finally, one for you spread betting fans out there....buy Anthony Kim finishing position at around 32-35, he'll miss the cut if not withdraw with the hump at his inability to keep it in play with the windy conditions! Good luck!!