At last the PGA Tour 2010 is upon us……in the depths of a freezing January.  The road to profit starts here.The SBS Championship, previously known as the Mercedes Championship is the curtain raiser, where a stellar field fight it out for the $1.1 million winner’s purse.    Only Tournament Champions from 2009 get entry onto the Plantation Course at Kapalua. 

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However the field this year is missing some really big names.  Tiger Woods (obviously!), Phil Mickelson, Padraig Harrington, Ernie Els, Sergio Garcia, Jim Furyk, Hunter Mahan, Adam Scott, Justin Leonard, Mike Weir and Anthony Kim.  Woods and Mickelson never play the event and the others didn’t win on the most competitive golf Tour in the world.

Kapalua is a unique challenge.  A long Par 73 that severely undulates.  Players that are long off the tee have an advantage, but those with a shorter game can also challenge, through accurate approach play and a hot flat stick.  Fairways are wide and welcoming, but the large green surfaces place a premium on excellent putting.  Experience of the Plantation Course is a distinct advantage, but first timers can compete.  What is ESSENTIAL though is a great ‘wind game’ as the Westerly winds off of the Pacific are strong and constant.  It’s a coastal course, where the elements provide the challenge. 

A field of 28 players means one thing……very poor prices, but there is surprising value available if you look beyond the obvious.  It will also be fascinating which players cope best with the new ‘Wedge rules’, where V groves have had to be replaced with shallower smaller grooves, making approaches to the green especially out of the rough a lot more difficult to control. 

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Nick Watney 1.5pts EW @ 20/1  with Paddy Power. RESULT: Tied 16th

Californian Watney is the real deal right now and loves playing the West Coast swing.  He has all the attributes to contend this week.  Nick ranked 6^th on Tour in 2009 for driving distance.  Marry that to GIR% and scrambling numbers that are decent as well. Indeed he can scramble better than Phil Mickelson!  Two factors really grab my attention though. On his first visit to Kapalua in 2007 he finished a highly creditable 5^th and was 2^nd after 54 holes.  Watney continued to show his liking for coastal courses by then winning the Buick International at Torrey Pines in February last year.  Secondly, avoiding players who are ‘rusty’ is vitally important in early season tournaments and Watney has played well in the winter with 3 T10s across 3 continents.   

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Dustin Johnson 1pt EW @ 25/1 with Ladbrokes. RESULT: Tied 16th

DJ’s game is very similar to that of Watney’s but around the green the latter’s short game is slightly more polished. The American’s have high hopes for Johnson and 2 wins in his first 2 seasons, mark him as a potential ‘world stage’ player.  What is absolutely crystal clear is Johnson’s definite liking for coastal golf.  Dustin grew up in coastal South Carolina so feels right at home on any course by the sea. A win at Pebble Beach in 2009, with 2 further ‘west coast’ Top 10s in 2008 are testament to that.  11^th at the Plantation Course on debut last year also offer encouragement with closing rounds of 68 & 67 (-11 for 2 rounds) adding fuel to the fire! 

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Jerry Kelly 1pt EW @ 50/1 with Ladbrokes. RESULT: Tied 23rd

Kelly is over-priced at 50-1 and here’s why.  He won the Shark Shoot-Out with partner Steve Stricker in December backing up a 10^th and 11^th in late season 09.  The new groove rules will suit the accurate ball striking Kelly down to the ground.  Wisconsin born and bred, Kelly’s golf education was based around the harsh environs of Lake Michigan. So when the wind blows, rain falls and salt is in the air….Kelly moves towards the top of the leaderboard.  3^rd Sony Open (Hawaii) 2008, 2^nd Puerto Rico 2008, 6^th Mayakoba (Mexico coast) 2009, 9^th Puerto Rico 2009, 1^st New Orleans 2009.  You catching my drift…. let the conditions be harsh!  10^th at Kapulua on his course debut in 2003.

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Heath Slocum 3pts Top 10 @ 4/1 with Stan James. RESULT: Tied 27th

A tournament & course virgin, many would discount Slocum without any detailed inspection.  Heath is coming off the back of his best ever season in 2009, grossing over $2 million, finishing 5^th in the FedEx Cup and winning the Barclays by holding off Tiger Woods, Ernie Els and Paddy Harrington on the New Jersey coast. Just like Kelly, Slocum plays best when conditions are affected by the wind.  3^rd at the Mayakoba Classic on the Mexican coast in 2009 and a superb 9^th at the 2008 US Open at Torrey Pines show his liking for the coastal golf.  As straight as a dye tee to green, if the wind is a real factor, expect “in-form” Slocum to be in the mix for a Top 10 placing by the seaside.   

All odds and bookmaker offer correct at 19:45GMT 4.1.10 but naturally subject to fluctuation.