Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship Tips 2025

Get Paul's previews as soon as they're published @golfbetting Follow Now
Follow us on X @golfbetting
Join over 6,600 punters on our facebook group
Watch our latest tips videos on YouTube

Stats Pages For This Event:

 

After a week’s break for the DP World Tour’s leading players to take a slight breather, we’re back for the final two events of the 2025 season and the second edition of the DP World Tour Play-Offs.

With a $9m prize fund and 9,000 Race to Dubai points up for grabs, 13 of the world’s top 50 players are heading to Abu Dhabi for this week’s Rolex Series event, with the top 50 in the rankings then moving on to the Earth Course in Dubai for next week’s finale.

72 players tee it up here this week, headed by Rory McIlroy at up to 6/1 who holds a lead of over 440 ranking points over Marco Penge heading into the final two events, although that lead’s not unassailable by any stretch and he’s going to need to put in a decent fortnight if he’s going to be crowned as the DP World Tour’s top player for the sixth time. Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrrell Hatton follow McIlroy in the betting at single figures odds, with the likes of Ludvig Aberg, Robert MacIntyre and Matt Fitzpatrick following on behind.

Before we go into more detail and my final Abu Dhabi Championship tips, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System as the golfing year reaches its conclusion. Welcome to you all and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube, and our hugely popular, 6,600-strong private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

✅ Bet £10 get £30 in free bets for new customers
✅ Bonus code SPORT30 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way

bet365 New Customer Offer: Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration required. The bonus code SPORT30 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad

CLAIM T&Cs

Course Overview: After 16 years at the Abu Dhabi Golf Club, the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship moved to pastures new in 2022 and we head back for a fourth look at Yas Links again this year.

Listed as a 7,425 yard Par 72, the course is a typical 36/36 setup with 4 par-5s and 4 par-3s. Sub-400 yard Par-4s followed by mid-length Par-5s open both sets of 9 and should allow players the opportunity to get off to a positive start before the course bites back with some more stringent holes. The 646 yard Par-5 18th is the longest on the course and can play reasonably tough when the back tee is used, however the other Par-5s ranked as the three easiest holes last year and are reachable for those finding a good drive.

Designed by Kyle Phillips (think Kingsbarns, Bernardus Golf and Verdura in Sicily amongst others) and opened in 2010, this course falls into the links-style category as all modern imitations do, however with its exposed fairways, fescue and pot bunkers, it certainly does a fair impression of a links, especially when the wind blows. Paspalum grass has been used from tee to green.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Abu Dhabi Championship that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.

As noted above, the event moved to its current venue in 2022 so event history needs to be considered accordingly: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Form/Event Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2024: Paul Waring, 125/1; 2023: Victor Perez, 55/1; 2022: Thomas Pieters, 40/1; 2021: Tyrrell Hatton, 12/1;  2020: Lee Westwood, 90/1; 2019: Shane Lowry, 60/1; 2018: Tommy Fleetwood, 20/1; 2017: Tommy Fleetwood, 60/1; 2016: Rickie Fowler, 16/1; 2015: Gary Stal, 150/1; 2014: Pablo Larrazabal, 125/1; 2013: Jamie Donaldson, 66/1; 2012: Robert Rock, 150/1; 2011: Martin Kaymer, 8/1, 2010: Martin Kaymer, 14/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the Abu Dhabi region is here.

Clear and sunny conditions with temperatures peaking in the high 80s Fahrenheit are expected, with light winds reaching around 10mph in the afternoons.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Looking at the traditional stats for our three winners here at Yas Links gives us a few clues as to what may be required to succeed around these parts:

  • 2024: Paul Waring (-24); 305 yards (51st), 75% fairways (20th), 86.1% greens in regulation (13th), 70% scrambling (8th), 1.65 putts per GIR (4th)
  • 2023: Victor Perez (-18); 319 yards (4th), 71.4% fairways (11th), 81.9% greens in regulation (20th), 61.5% scrambling (19th), 1.68 putts per GIR (2nd)
  • 2022: Thomas Pieters (-10); 317 yards (23rd), 69.6% fairways (10th), 79.2% greens in regulation (9th), 86.7% scrambling (1st), 1.89 putts per GIR (59th)

Greens are large here at Yas Links and GIR numbers were really quite consistent across the whole field on all three renewals, with the overall level down in 2022 due to windier conditions. With the majority of the field finding between 70-80% of greens in the requisite number, how players performed on and around the greens determined the shape of the final leaderboard.

In calmer conditions last year, putting statistics came to the fore with eventual winner Paul Waring ranking 4th for putting when finding the green in the requisite number; Runner-up Tyrrell Hatton ranked 5th for putts per GIR and Rory McIlroy, who tied or third, was 7th on that count.

2022 was trickier as I mentioned – the winning score at 10-under par was a full 14 strokes worse than last year – and Thomas Pieters navigated to victory through the strongest scrambling performance on show, getting up and down 86.7% of the time and making just 5 bogeys overall on the week. This week promises to be much calmer than 2022 and I suspect last year will be a better proxy for our winner in that respect.

Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, the same three players performed as follows:

  • 2024: Paul Waring: T: 17th; A: 2nd; T2G: 3rd; ATG: 45th; P: 7th
  • 2023: Victor Perez: T: 3rd; A: 48th; T2G: 11th; ATG: 3rd; P: 5th
  • 2022: Thomas Pieters: T: 2nd; A: 23rd; T2G: 1st; ATG: 12th; P: 30th

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

The most consistent stat over the three renewals has been SG Tee to Green which looks like a pre-requisite here at Yas Links, however in the lower scoring renewals the winner’s also excelled in terms of SG Putting.

Incoming Form: All 13 winners of the Abu Dhabi Championship listed below had recorded a top-12 finish in one of their previous 4 starts and that trend can be extended back for all of Kaymer, Casey and DiMarco’s victories also, so a positive form line looks like a good starting point this week.

  • 2024: Paul Waring: 68/MC/WD/21/6/MC/25/12/45/MC/37/7
  • 2023: Victor Perez: 53/MC/34/23/MC/50/3/30/36/MC/44/12
  • 2022: Thomas Pieters: 35/16/54/MC/18/9/9/39/MC/16/1/15
  • 2021: Tyrrell Hatton: MC/25/16/5/MC/1/3/28/7/MC/23/8
  • 2020: Lee Westwood: 55/4/MC/28/MC/MC/MC/60/56/10/6/38
  • 2019: Shane Lowry: MC/12/15/12/MC/6/MC/34/2/14/35/30
  • 2018: Tommy Fleetwood: 27/28/61/MC/25/6/20/23/10/21/6/3
  • 2017: Tommy Fleetwood: 16/49/10/7/13/15/4/37/22/14/9/3
  • 2016: Rickie Fowler: 30/2/10/30/MC/1/4/12/25/17/3/5
  • 2015: Gary Stal: 18/51/70/39/MC/66/19/32/33/23/MC/5
  • 2014: Pablo Larrazabal: MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/9/17/8/5/53/26/MC
  • 2013: Jamie Donaldson: 60/36/7/50/9/21/MC/6/16/42/9/16
  • 2012: Robert Rock: MC/MC/25/MC/70/28/33/38/8/9/12

Event Form. To balance the clear correlation between current form and success in this event over the past 13 years, before Tommy Fleetwood retained his trophy in 2017 the previous 6 winners hadn’t mustered a single top-10 between them in this event prior to victory, so for all of Casey and Kaymer’s domination, a sparkling event history doesn’t look to be an absolute pre-requisite.

That said Shane Lowry, Lee Westwood, Tyrrell Hatton, Victor Perez and Paul Waring each had a top-6 finish to their name in Abu Dhabi, albeit quite distant, and Thomas Pieters had 3 top-5 finishes at the previous venue before we moved here to Yas Links:

  • 2024: Paul Waring: MC/37/46/MC/37/MC/MC/MC/6/12/MC/MC/MC
  • 2023: Victor Perez: 54/2/46/58
  • 2022: Thomas Pieters: MC/4/2/MC/5/16/30/41
  • 2021: Tyrrell Hatton: 10/6/46/13/15/MC
  • 2020: Lee Westwood: 2/MC/64/17/MC/8/MC/16
  • 2019: Shane Lowry: 4/MC/MC/MC
  • 2018: Tommy Fleetwood: MC/MC/19/MC/MC/1
  • 2017: Tommy Fleetwood: MC/MC/19/MC/MC
  • 2016: Rickie Fowler: 66
  • 2015: Gary Stal: MC
  • 2014: Pablo Larrazabal: 42/43/11/MC/39
  • 2013: Jamie Donaldson: MC/23/50/21/11/30
  • 2012: Robert Rock: 59/47/MC/MC

One final point of note is that the history of short-priced chances doesn’t read well here: 2013 McIlroy (5/1), Woods (15/2); 2014: McIlroy (6/1), Stenson (8/1); 2015: McIlroy (4/1); 2016: McIlroy (4/1), Spieth (9/2); 2017: Johnson (6/1), Stenson (7/1); 2018: Johnson (5/1), Rose (8/1), McIlroy (8/1); 2019: Dustin Johnson (6/1), Brooks Koepka (9/1), Tommy Fleetwood (10/1); 2020: Patrick Cantlay (8/1), Brooks Koepka (10/1). Tommy Fleetwood (10/1); 2021: Rory McIlroy (6/1), Justin Thomas (13/2); 2022: Collin Morikawa (15/2), Rory McIlroy (8/1), Viktor Hovland (10/1); 2023: Tyrrell Hatton (11/1), Tommy Fleetwood (11/1); 2024: Rory McIlroy (9/2), Tyrrell Hatton (6/1), Tommy Fleetwood (8/1) – these well-fancied players all failed to get over the line in Abu Dhabi.

My final Abu Dhabi Championship tips are as follows:

Rasmus Hojgaard 2.5pts EW 28/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Boylesports

The fact that this event has been somewhat of a graveyard for favourites over the recent past – at both venues and at the differing calendar spots – does make me wary of backing the players at the very top of the market this week, despite their very obvious credentials. With next week’s Earth Course finale where the big bucks will be earned, the likes of Rory, Tommy, Tyrrell et al could be excused for using this as a sharpening exercise as they work toward a peak when it matters the most.

McIlroy in particular has a great record in this event without winning; Fleetwood and Hatton on the other hand have both tasted victory in Abu Dhabi – albeit not here at Yas Links – however the bookies take no chances on any of the Ryder Cup winning trio at single digit odds.

Team Europe players dominate the betting, however it’s one of the slightly lesser fancied Bethpage attendees in the shape of Rasmus Hojgaard who I think has all the ingredients it takes to win this week’s Abu Dhabi Championship.

The Dane may have something to prove having been the most lightly raced player in Luke Donald’s team, playing just two matches in the end. In some ways he was seen as the weak link in the team as the only new face compared to 2023, however we shouldn’t forget that he qualified by rights, finishing runner-up in Denmark and Switzerland in the immediate build-up to Bethpage, and his form since then has been strong with a 3rd place finish at the Sanderson Farms Championship and 14th at the Baycurrent Classic, both at PGA Tour level.

Statistically the Dane has caught the eye on a number of those events just mentioned, ranking1st for SG Approach in Denmark, 1st for SG Tee to Green at Crans, and 3rd for SG Putting at the Sanderson Farms. With finishes of 20th and 32nd here at Yas Links from his two attempts, he arrives this year with no end-of-season pressure having sewn up his PGA Tour card already and sitting a solid 43rd in the OWGR, so I’m expecting a big personal best on a course that should suit.

Rasmus’s breakthrough win came in Mauritius which shares Paspalum agronomy with Yas Links, and he showed a further liking for that type of grass with finishes of 2nd, 8th and 6th in Ras al Khaimah, Bahrain and Qatar at the start of 2024, leading the field for SG Putting on the first event in that sequence.

✅ Bet £10 Get £30 Free Bets & £10 Casino Bonus for new customers using this qualifying link
✅ Get paid 10 places instead of 6 on each-way bets on selected PGA Tour events*
✅ ‘Pick Your Place’ promotion where you choose between 6, 10 or 12 places each way

Boylesports UK New Customer Offer: New UK customers (Excluding NI) only. £40 in FREE Bets (FB) as £30 in sports bets & a £10 casino bonus (CB). Min Deposit £10. Min stake £10. Min odds Evs. FB applied on 1st settlement of any qualifying bet. FB 7-day expiry. 1 FB offer per customer, household & IP address only. Account & Payment restrictions. 14 days to accept £10 CB, then active for 3 days. CB 5x wagering & max redeemable £100. Game restrictions apply. Cashed out/Free Bets won’t apply. 30 days to qualify. 18+. T&Cs apply. #Ad

*10 Places Key Terms: 18+. 1/5 odds 10 Places. Pre-live each way bets on outright market only. Dead Heat rules apply. Free/void/antepost/cashed out/multiple bets won’t qualify. Account & Payment restrictions apply. T&Cs apply. #Ad

CLAIM T&Cs

Alex Noren 2.5pts EW 20/1 (10EW, 1/5) with William Hill

Since the Ryder Cup we’ve seen Robert Macintyre win the Alfred Dunhill Links and Tommy Fleetwood win the DP World India Championship, and although Alex Noren was only a vice-captain at Bethpage Black, he was involved enough in the whole event for him to be riding the same crest of a wave as the 12 players.

We were on board when the super Swede won the Tour’s flagship event at Wentworth in September for his second win in the space of three starts, and there’s enough evidence from his past to suggest that winning again this side of Christmas isn’t out of the equation, having won 4 times back in 2016 in the space of 4 months with the final victory in that sequence coming in November at the Nedbank.

Form of 27/MC at PGA Tour level since Bethpage doesn’t tell the whole story as he was 2nd heading into the weekend at the Baycurrent Classic and 12th after day 1 in Utah before missing the cut on the number, so a return to contention here this week wouldn’t be a surprise in my view.

5th here at Yas Links in 2023 is the only course form we have to go on, however that’s more than a solid outing and importantly he took to the Paspalum greens well here that week, leading the field for SG Putting. With scoring likely to be good this year and with the flat stick in great form generally for the 43 year-old over the past couple of months, I can see Noren pushing the favourites all the way this week.

✅ Bet £/€10 Get £/€40 in free bets for new customers using code G40 and this qualifying link
✅ For further details read our William Hill promo code page
✅ One of the earliest bookmakers to publish odds most weeks on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour

18+. Play Safe. Online only. For new UK register customers using promo code G40. Deposit & place £10 cash single bet (min odds 1/2) on sportsbook (excl. Virtuals). Get £40 in Free Bets (4x£10), valid for sportsbook (excl. Virtuals), 7 days expiry, must use in full (£10 each). Not valid with deposits via PayPal, Neosurf, Paysafe, Apple Pay, NETELLER, Skrill, ecoPayz, Kalibra/Postpay or WH PLUS Card. One per customer. Full T&Cs apply. gambleaware.org. #Ad

CLAIM T&Cs

Keita Nakajima 1pt EW 70/1 (6EW, 1/5) with BetMGM

Slightly further down the list, I’m also backing Keita Nakajima who at his best has the game to take on and potentially beat those players at the top of the market, and who needs to give this week and next his full attention if he’s going to fulfil his dream of playing on the PGA Tour next season.

Having won the Indian Open last year for his maiden DP World Tour title in dominant fashion, he’s come close again on three occasions in 2025, finishing runner-up in Singapore and India twice, most recently at Delhi GC last month where his approach play and putting was excellent. Those efforts combined with 4th at The Belfry have thrust the Japanese star into the top dozen in the Race to Dubai and he’s currently in possession of the 9th of the 10 available PGA Tour cards. After an understandably quiet week to follow his most recent Indian effort and the subsequent week off, I’m expecting full focus here.

More exotic agronomy seems to suit the 25 year-old as opposed to the more regular bentgrass-based courses we often see in Europe – indeed he’s ranked 1st, 1st and 2nd in his Indian efforts where warm weather grasses have prevailed – and there’s enough to suggest from his efforts on Paspalum in Ras al Khaimah and here last year to suggest that he’s more than comfortable on these types of greens.

13th here last year on debut was only held back by his approach play on the week – interesting then that he’s ranked 6th and 16th for SG Approach over his last two outings, which would more than plug the gap should he do similar again this week as the rest of his performance here 12 months ago was strong enough to seriously contend.

✅ Bet £10, Get £40 in Free Bets using this qualifying link.
✅ For further details read our BetMGM sign up offer page
✅ Strong First Round Leader odds and each-way terms at Major Championships

Significant terms: New cust. Deposit £10+ in 7 days & bet on sports. Min odds apply. Reward = 4 x £10 Free Bets (2 x £10 Bet Builders & 2 x £10 Sports bet). Valid 7 days. Free bets not valid on e-sports & non UK/IE horse racing. 18+. T&Cs apply. #Ad

CLAIM T&Cs

Laurie Canter 1pt EW 90/1 (6EW, 1/5) with SpreadEx

Finally, another player with plenty to play for over this final fortnight of the season is Laurie Canter and he, like Nakajima, can ill afford to take his foot off the pedal at this stage in proceedings.

3rd at this year’s Dubai Desert Classic was followed by victory on the Paspalum greens of Bahrain on his next start a fortnight later, and after a runner-up finish at the South African Open his claims for a PGA Tour card looked rock solid at that stage of the season before his form tailed off. 7th at the BMW International Open was the only real positive from an otherwise disappointing spring and summer, and it took a return to form last time out in South Korea where he finished 2nd for him to force his way into the top 10 of the Race to Dubai and back in position to be playing Stateside golf next year.

Sitting nearly 300 points ahead of the aforementioned Keita Nakajima and currently in possession of the 6th of 10 cards, it’s more a case of defending that position than all out attack. What encourages me most though is that both of Canter’s DP World Tour wins followed finishes of 7th and 3rd on his previous starts, so he falls very much in the category of players who seem to need a strong finish before grabbing silverware.

Canter, who turned 35 on Monday, was 6th to halfway here 12 months ago before shooting a Saturday round of 74, so if he can string 4 rounds together here he could go close.

✅ Up to £60 in free bets for new customers using this qualifying link
✅ Both fixed odds and spread betting markets available
✅ 3 cashout options available

Spreadex New Customer Offer: Place a £10 fixed odds single or £10 each-way bet at minimum odds of 1/2 and get 3 x £10 free fixed odds bets, 3 x £5 Total Goals football spread bets and 3 x £5 Winning Favourites spread bets and a £1 racing Race Index spread bet. 18+ www.gambleaware.org. T&Cs Apply. New customers only. #Ad

CLAIM T&Cs

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 15:23GMT 3.11.25 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.