British Masters Tips 2019

Tommy Fleetwood quite rightly heads the market this week on a course that he knows like the back of his hand and, as the highest-ranked player in the field, his quote of 9/1 with some bookmakers at the time of writing is probably about right. 3rd at Bay Hill, 5th at TPC Sawgrass and 36th at Augusta are all performances that few in this field can get remotely close to in recent times, however to win this week Tommy is going to need to be able to concentrate on his golf and that may not be so easy with the media obligations and focus that he’ll undoubtedly receive as tournament host. Ian Poulter (33rd), Luke Donald (MC), Lee Westwood (15th) and Justin Rose (8th) have all failed to convert superior course knowledge into silverware when hosting the past 4 editions of this event and Tommy is a short price to buck that trend in my opinion.

Behind Tommy in the betting, Tyrrell Hatton is undoubtedly another class act, however the Englishman has failed to record a strokeplay top-10 finish in 2019 so far, whereas Matt Wallace may need some picking up after disappointing missed cuts at Augusta and Harbour Town on his last 2 starts. Eddie Pepperell defends a European Tour title for the first time this week and although he’s a danger, as are Joost Luiten and Lee Westwood, I’m starting this week’s team with Jordan Smith who’s looked increasingly assured with his game over the past few weeks and could be on the brink of a second European Tour title.

3rd in this event behind Eddie Pepperell last autumn ranks as the 26 year-old’s best finish on the regular European Tour outside of his win in Germany in 2017 and he’s clearly comfortable in his homeland having also won twice on the EuroPro Tour before progressing up the ranks. Although his experience on the European Tour on links tracks is relatively limited given he’s not been around for that long, he does have some tangible form on linkable tracks with 6th in Qatar, 20th in Ireland and 12th in Oman to his name.

7th, 14th and 5th on his last 3 starts has been driven by a continuation of some exceptional form with his irons, culminating in a field-leading 90.3% GIR last week in China. If he can get close to that again this week and get the odd putt here or there to drop then he’s going to go very close indeed. Result: T6

The sight of compatriot Jorge Campillo finally getting the European Tour monkey off of his back in Morocco, then putting himself into position to immediately follow that win up in China, might just be the final bit of inspiration that Nacho Elvira needs to get himself into the winners’ circle.

4 Challenge Tour victories tells us that he’s well capable of getting over the line, however it’s not quite happened so far on the European Tour when he’s had a gilt-edged opportunity, with Jeung-hun Wang producing putting heroics to beat him in a play-off at the 2016 Trophee Hassan II before Scott Hend pipped him on the first extra hole in Malaysia at the end of March. The win is coming though and it could be as soon as this week if everything falls into place for the Spaniard.

3rd behind Jon Rahm at last year’s Spanish Open on a course that carried some linsky features is a positive for Nacho this week, as is another runner-up finish from a few weeks ago, this time in Qatar behind Justin Harding. The 32 year-old could be forgiven for feeling a little deflated after those recent near-misses, however 6th at the Indian Open and another prominent showing last week in China, where he was 6th heading into Sunday before fading, suggests that he’s still in the right kind of form to contend for a title like this and perhaps this will be the week where the stars all align. A never-nearer 11th in this event in 2017 is positive and 10th at last year’s Dunhill Links also adds to the argument for Elvira this week. Result: T42

It’s been a challenging 18 months or so for Richie Ramsay since finishing 8th in this event at Close House at the back end of 2017. A solitary top-10 finish has come in the events that have followed and the 35 year-old had to pull out all the stops to retain his card for 2019 with an 11th place finish at Valderrama which meant he scraped through in 114th place on the Race To Dubai. 3 European Tour wins over his career prove that he’s a better player than that though and a return to the British Isles may well see a continuation of the improvement that produced a 14th-place finish last week in China and prompted a tweet saying, “Played lovely putted lovely and 3 lip outs. Stay patient out there. Game is looking good.”

I mention the British Isles as aside from being born in Aberdeen and now living in Edinburgh, the Scot has played the vast majority of his best golf close to his homeland. 4th and 2nd at the Dunhill Links; 6th at both the Johnnie Walker Championship and Scottish Open; 10th, 9th and 2nd at the Irish Open; 10th at the Wales Open; and 9th at the BMW PGA Championship all add to that aforementioned effort at Close House to suggest he’s most at home in this part of the world. All 3 of his wins though have come elsewhere and perhaps he can put that right this week with his game seemingly on the ascendancy once again.

With confidence growing and some practical experience of Hillside GC under his belt from his amateur days, I can see Richie putting in a decent performance here this week. Result: 5th

Wind the clock back to September last year and we picked up a tasty 3-figure winner in the shape of Ashun Wu at the KLM Open on a links-style track that clearly brought the best out of the Chinese star, following a quietly impressive 6th place finish the week before in the Swiss Alps. Aside from the tentative links that week between Wu and previous course contenders at ‘The Dutch’, what really caught my eye is that the 33 year-old’s putter had shown some signs of life at Crans the weekend before, ranking 9th for putting average and 8th for total putts versus the field. 8 months on and we find ourselves in a very similar situation with the 3-time European Tour winner arriving fresh off a top-5 finish last week in China, driven largely by a putting performance that saw him rank 5th for putting average and 4th for total putts.

Now, what we can’t build this time around are links between Wu and previous contenders here as we’re heading to Hillside for this event for the first time in the event’s history, plus putting is secondary in my view this week to a solid performance from tee-to-green, however at the price on offer I’m happy to take a chance that he can find the right approach to contending here this week. At 232nd on Tour in terms of Driving Distance, this week’s layout won’t penalise his lack of power and with this track being new to the vast majority of the field, he won’t be disadvantage by any lack of practical experience around Hillside either. Result: MC

The current crop of talented young Frenchmen almost saw one of its ranks break through on the European Tour last week with Benjamin Hebert missing out in a play-off to Mikko Korhonen in China, however it’s Hebert’s compatriot Clement Sordet who interests me most this week. Despite having yet to get over the line on Tour, Sordet has triumphed 4 times on the Challenge Tour circuit, including his biggest win which came at the 2017 NBO Golf Classic Grand Final which was held on the links-style Al Mouj track that hosted this year’s Oman Open where the Frenchman finished runner-up to Kurt Kitayama.

More tangible form on linksy or coastal tracks in Mauritius and the Vic Open from the 2018/19 wraparound season adds fuel to the argument that the 26 year-old plays his best golf on this type of track and he could easily go well at a long price this week. 14th on his last start in Morocco was a huge personal best for him on that course, having missed the cut badly on his previous two attempts, and if his surroundings this week spark the kind of long-game performance that we saw from him in that aforementioned effort in Oman, then he could be rewarding each-way backers at a tasty 3-figure price. Result: MC