For details of how to claim any of the new account offers listed below read our free bets for golf betting guide here!

With the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play in the rear-view mirror, we’ve almost made it to the hallowed grounds of Augusta National. Just a single week separates us from what has to be the most anticipated Masters for years with Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Bubba Watson, Phil Mickelson and one Tiger Woods all very much in the frame.

The unsponsored Houston Open is now the traditional curtain-raiser for The Masters. Played on a 7,400 yard, Par 72 track in Humble, Texas, the Rees Jones design will never quite be Augusta, but undoubtedly the course has been modelled over recent years to produce some similar challenges to those that the world’s best will face next week. The last Masters invite is also up for grabs for any non-qualified winner this week.

Course Guide: The Tournament Course at the Golf Club of Houston is a 7,441 yard, Par 72. An original Rees Jones design, the course has gone through a transformation over recent years with key features being minimal rough and fast MiniVerde Bermudagrass overseeded Bentgrass/Poa Trivialis greens which are large at an average 6,950 sq.ft. The green complexes themselves are surrounded by shaved grass areas, designed to capture errant approach shots and send them into collection areas and it’s noticeable that 4 of the past 8 winners here have ranked in the top 5 for scrambling the week they captured the title. That’s no mean feat on a course which continually ranks in the top-3 hardest courses on the PGA Tour for scrambling from the rough.

Champions Course, Golf Club of Houston, Redstone, Texas: Designer: Rees Jones 2005; Course Type: Texas, Resort; Par: 72; Length: 7,441 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 9; TifSport Bermuda with Perennial Rye; Rough: TifSport Bermuda with Perennial Rye 1.5″; Greens: 6,950 sq.ft average MiniVerde Bermuda overseeded with Bentgrass and Poa Trivialis; Tournament Stimp: 12.5-13.0 ft; Course Scoring Average 2012: 71.45 (-0.55), Difficulty Rank 34 of 49 courses. 2013: 71.87 (-0.13), Difficulty Rank 25 of 43 courses. 2014: 72.25 (+0.25), Rank 23 of 48 courses. 2015: 70.86 (-1.14), Rank 41 of 52 courses. 2016: 71.89 (-0.11), Rank 23 of 50 courses. 2017: 71.98 (-0.02), Rank 24 of 50 courses.

GC of Houston Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for the Golf Club of Houston course and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on the PGA Tour:

• Golf Club of Houston: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:30; 325:25; 350:28.
• Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:35; 300:35; 325:40 350:31.
• Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:22; 300:23; 325:23 350:26.
• Chapultepec: 250 yards from the tee: 28 yards wide; 275:26; 300:26; 325:23 350:26.
• PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:28; 300:24; 325:27 350:25.
• Riviera: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:29; 300:25; 325:27 350:27.
• Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 41 yards wide; 275:37; 300:33; 325:34 350:30.
• TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 35 yards wide; 275:30; 300:29; 325:29 350:29.
• Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:25 350:23.
• TPC Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:30; 300:29; 325:29; 350:27.
• Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 35 yards wide; 275:32; 300:33; 325:37; 350:34.
• Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 54 yards wide; 275:58; 300:62; 325:57; 350:61.

Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Rees Jones re-designs include:

• Aronimink GC – 2010/11 AT&T National
• Baltusrol – 2016 PGA Championship
• Bethpage Black – 2009 U.S. Open, 2012 & 2016 The Barclays
• Congressional CC – 2011 U.S. Open, 2012-14 & 2016 Quicken Loans National
• Dubsdread Course – Cog Hill GCC – Golf Club – BMW Championship 2009 through 2011
• East Lake – Tour Championship
• Torrey Pines South – Farmers Insurance Open
• Hazletine – 2009 PGA Championship + 2016 Ryder Cup
• Highlands Course, Atlanta Athletic Club CC – 2011 PGA Championship

Course Overview: Rees Jones’ first ever original golf course design (he’s famous for high profile re-designs of Major-hosting classical golf courses) is an interesting test to classify. Yes the course is scoreable with Russell Henley (-20), Jim Herman (-15), J.B. Holmes (-16), Matt Jones (-15), D.A. Points (-16) and Hunter Mahan (-16) winning with fairly low totals. But the organisers attempt to get the Tournament Course to play as firm and fast as possible so there’s certainly bite for those who struggle to hit greens. The course features tight fairways at 325 yards (so the longest players tend to throttle back off the tee), large MiniVerde Bermudagrass overseeded with Bentgrass greens and water hazards in-play on nine of the holes. Scrambling from the rough, or from over 30 yards is tough here and naturally, as we’re in Texas, wind tends to be a feature, although 2018 looks more tranquil than we’ve seen here since 2012. I’m also thinking that the course is likely to have some give in it as there’s been plenty of rain in the immediate build-up to the tournament.

A couple of key angles jump from the course statistics when we talk about the Golf Club of Houston. The large putting surfaces here allow even the short game specialists a good look at plenty of putts – indeed you would hardly call J.B. Holmes and Matt Jones Greens in Regulation specialists. However it’s also very difficult to get the ball close to the pin, so winners here always feature a hotter than standard putter. Also look for those who have a proven record on these quirky green surfaces. Ultimately though, on a course where Going for the Green has ranked in the top 10 most difficult across the past 7 renewals, those with an aggressive streak across the driveable 12th (338 yards) and a tough set of par-5s (even with -20/268 winning in 2017 they still played as the 5th toughest on Tour) tend to prevail.

Winners: 2017: Russell Henley (-20); 2016: Jim Herman (-15); 2015: J.B. Holmes (-16); 2014: Matt Jones (-15); 2013: D.A. Points (-16); 2012: Hunter Mahan (-16); 2011: Phil Mickelson (-20); 2010: Anthony Kim (-12).

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, Jordan Spieth, Phil Mickelson, Luke List, Henrik Stenson, Keegan Bradley, Ryan Palmer, Russell Henley and J.B. Holmes.

Recent Player Skill Rankings: These rankings are based on a 10-tournament window that stretches back to the CareerBuilder Challenge / Abu Dhabi and includes both PGA Tour and European Tour events. Players must have played in a minimum of 2 Tour events to be included and rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Driving Accuracy: 1) Steve Stricker; 2) Ryan Blaum; 3) Chez Reavie; 4) Keegan Bradley; 5) Chad Campbell / Henrik Stenson; 7) Ryan Armour; 8) Emiliano Grillo; 9) Kevin Streelman; 10) Xin-Jun Zhang;; 11) Bob Estes; 12) Chris Kirk / Ryan Palmer; 14) Brandt Snedeker / Ricky Werenski; 16) Blayne Barber / Lucas Glover / Russell Henley / Russell Knox / Rory Sabbatini. 21) Byeong-Hun An / Daniel Berger / Rickie Fowler / Fabian Gomez / John Huh / C.T. Pan.
• Greens in Regulation: 1) Charles Howell III; 2) Corey Conners; 3) Keegan Bradley / Sam Ryder; 5) Justin Rose / Peter Uihlein; 7) Tony Finau; 8) Emiliano Grillo; 9) Jason Kokrak / Russell Knox / Kevin Streelman; 12) Dylan Frittelli / Lee Westwood; 14) Thomas Pieters / Michael Thompson; 16) Nick Watney; 17) Lucas Glover / J.J. Henry / Matt Kuchar / Denny McCarthy; 21) Shane Lowry / Scott Piercy.
• Putting Average (Putts per GIR): 1) Phil Mickelson; 2) Lanto Griffin; 3) Michael Kim; 4) Greg Chalmers / Dylan Frittelli / Russell Henley; 7) Justin Rose; 8) John Huh / Peter Malnati; 10) Rafa Cabrera-Bello; 11) Chesson Hadley / William McGirt; 13) Emiliano Grillo; 14) Dominic Bozzelli / James Hahn; 16) Sam Saunders; 17) Bob Estes / Troy Merritt; 19) Grayson Murray; 20) Matt Kuchar.

Winners & Prices: 2017: Henley 40/1; 2016: Herman 400/1; 2015: Holmes 28/1; 2014: Jones 125/1; 2013: Points 250/1; 2012: Mahan 22/1; 2011: Mickelson 18/1; 2010: Kim 25/1. Average: 113/1.Past 4 Renewals Average: 148/1.

Historical Weather:

• 2017: Thursday: Mostly sunny with a high of 80. Wind WNW 8-16 mph. Friday: Sunny with a high of 86. Wind SSE 10-20 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a high of 82. Wind SE 15-25 mph. Sunday: Scattered showers with a high of 79. Wind SSE 15-25 mph.
• 2016: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 83 degrees. Wind WNW 6-12 mph. Friday: Cloudy, with thunderstorms in the morning. High of 65 degrees. Wind SSE 15-25 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 71 degrees. Wind NNW 10-18 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 74 degrees. Wind S 5-10 mph.
• 2015: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 82. Wind S at 15-20, with gusts to 25 mph. Friday: Overcast, with a high of 83. Wind WSW at 10-20 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 68. Wind NNW at 10-20 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 77. Wind SSE at 8-16 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Humble, Texas, is here. It’s been dry in the build-up to the tournament with only 1mm of rain falling in this part of north-east Houston recently, however pre-tournament rain looks a certainty across Wednesday afternoon and into Thursday morning. That will undoubtedly soften the course and help the longer hitters. The forecast also shows only 10-15 mph wind in-play across tournament week, so we should see genuine low scoring this week.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the 8 winners of the event since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

• 2017, Russell Henley (-20). 290 yards (29th), 75.0% fairways (4th), 79.2% greens in regulation (4th), 36’4″ proximity to hole (28th), 60.0 % scrambling (43rd), 1.54 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2016, Jim Herman (-15). 290 yards (41st), 69.6% fairways (16th), 73.6% greens in regulation (10th), 31’8″ proximity to hole (1st), 78.9 % scrambling (4th), 1.66 putts per GIR (5th).
• 2015, J.B. Holmes (-16). 312 yards (1st), 44.6% fairways (71st), 79.2% greens in regulation (10th), 38’1″ proximity to hole (45th), 60.0 % scrambling (36th), 1.63 putts per GIR (4th).
• 2014, Matt Jones (-15). 301 yards (21st), 64.3% fairways (25th), 80.6% greens in regulation (2nd), 41’0″ proximity to hole (54th), 64.3 % scrambling (28th), 1.64 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2013, D.A. Points (-16). 284 yards (64th), 64.3% fairways (31st), 79.2% greens in regulation (10th), 37’5″ proximity to hole (33rd), 80.0% scrambling (5th), 1.72 putts per GIR (20th)
• 2012, Hunter Mahan (-16). 280 yards (50th), 67.9% fairways (33rd), 86.1% greens in regulation (1st), 33’0″ proximity to hole (21st), 80.0% scrambling (2nd), 1.73 putts per GIR (14th).
• 2011, Phil Mickelson (-20). 315 yards (6th), 53.6% fairways (67th), 77.8% greens in regulation (11th), 42’9″ proximity to hole (67th), 50.0% scrambling (36th), 1.64 putts per GIR (3rd).
• 2010, Anthony Kim (-12). 306 yards (8th), 41.1% fairways (72nd), 68.1% greens in regulation (50th), 34’6″ proximity to hole (12th), 69.6% scrambling (4th), 1.71 putts per GIR (7th).

Tournament Skill Averages:

• Driving Distance: 28th, Driving Accuracy: 40th, Greens in Regulation: 12th, Proximity to Hole: 33rd, Scrambling: 20th, Putting Average 7th.

Let’s take a view from players as to how the course sets up and what skill sets the course favours:

Russell Henley: “I feel like the greens, don’t break a ton in most cases, so if I can just hit the ball in the fat side of the hole and not play a lot of break, it has a good chance of going in. I felt that frees me up a little bit, too, knowing it’s not going to break and all I got to do is take it straight back and through. I do love the greens. I feel comfortable with a lot of these shots off the tee. There’s a lot of room. I feel when I miss it, I know it. I don’t make a lot of bogies and roll a couple extra putts in. Yeah, I really love the greens and I just feel like I can hit most of them and I’m pretty confident.“

Jim Herman: “I was able to keep it in the fairway, and that way you can get a good look at some of these pins that were tucked. I was able to put it in the right spot, able to get some good uphill putts, and able to make a few. It’s very tricky. It seemed like every hole just seemed to be into the wind. You play a hole into the wind and turn around and it’s still in the wind. So, lot of guessing out there where Matt and I did a really good job of picking some good clubs to hit and just picking the correct line. Not being too aggressive when we have mid irons or long irons, but when we have a chance to hit wedges, we’re looking to cash in.“

Matt Jones: “We’re used to firm and fast, bump and runs, not a lot of flop shots. So that’s why, I mean, Adam winning Texas, Adam, Colonial, firm and fast is usually what we play here. I’m sure San Antonio blows every day there, 20 to 30. So that place is going to be firm and fast as well. I’d say that would definitely be the most common factor between the two countries, why we play Texas so well. We’re used to playing in the wind, too. Especially in Sydney. We get winds in Queensland as well.“

Jordan Spieth: “This is known as one of the best manicured courses all year. Lot of run-off areas and the grass being mowed into the grain, it’s similar to next week. This is a course where there are big greens, so I have a lot of speed putting. But if you do miss the greens, it’s very difficult to get up and down here. So, it’s going to be a true test. And the way the run-off areas are, there’s not much rough and the grain is mowed into us. The next two weeks are going to be very similar conditions.“

J.B. Holmes: “You know, it’s always well manicured. It’s not a whole lot of rough. That’s different for the Tour. Usually we have quite a bit of rough. But, you know, this course usually gets pretty windy. It’s nice to be able to hit it in a few places and still be able to come out. The greens are in great shape. I just like it. I think this course in general can favour long hitters. It’s pretty long out there, it gets windy, and some of those holes could be difficult. I would say it would favour the long hitters.“

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the last 8 Houston Open winners:

• 2017 – Russell Henley: Round 1: 6th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 3rd.
• 2016 – Jim Herman: Round 1: 32nd, Round 2: 8th, Round 3: 1st.
• 2015 – J.B. Holmes: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 6th, Round 3: 18th.
• 2014 – Matt Jones: Round 1: 18th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 4th.
• 2013 – D.A. Points: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 3rd.
• 2012 – Hunter Mahan: Round 1: 27th, Round 2: 11th, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2011 – Phil Mickelson: Round 1: 33rd, Round 2: 21st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2010 – Anthony Kim: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2 4th, Round 3: 1st.

Incoming form of winners since 2010:

• Russell Henley: 45th Bay Hill/9th Copperhead/43rd PGA National/16th TPC Scottsdale.
• Jim Herman: 63rd Bay Hill/MC Copperhead/MC PGA National/17th Pebble/MC TPC Scottsdale.
• J.B. Holmes: MC Bay Hill/2nd Doral/22nd Riviera/10th Pebble/2nd Torrey Pines.
• Matt Jones: 14th Bay Hill/MC Puerto Rico/MC PGA National/59th Riviera/45th Pebble.
• D.A. Points: MC Bay Hill/MC Copperhead/MC Puerto Rico/68th PGA National.
• Hunter Mahan: 42nd Bay Hill/24th Doral/1st WMP/24th Riviera/13th Pebble.
• Phil Mickelson: 24th Bay Hill/55th Doral/17th WMP/35th Riviera/9th Pebble.
• Anthony Kim: 22nd Doral/2nd PGA National/24th TPC Scottsdale/52nd Riviera.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010.

• 2017 – Fowler – AM – -8/64 25/1
• 2016 – Hoffman – PM -8/64.
• 2015 – Piercy – AM -9/63.
• 2014 – Haas/Hoffman – Both PM -7/65.
• 2013 – Points – AM -8/64.
• 2012 – Cabrera / Mickelson / Pettersson – 2AM/1PM Split -7/65.
• 2011 – Walker – PM -9/63.
• 2010 – Percy / Stadler – AM/PM Split -5/67.

Pre-Major tournaments always have a slightly strange feel to them and the week prior to The Masters is perennially difficult to read. Most of the field are ignoring Augusta on the basis that they haven’t qualified: Both Russell Henley and Jim Herman fell into this category across the past 2 renewals; 2014 also saw Matt Jones win this with no Augusta qualification weighing on his mind. Extrapolate that to TPC San Antonio in 2013, which due to a quirk in the PGA Tour schedule hosted the pre-Augusta event that year, Martin Laird again grabbed a last minute invite to the first Major of the year and there’s a line of enquiry that suggests we look for non-Augusta qualifiers. After all 4 of the past 5 champions here (including D.A. Points in 2013) weren’t already in the field for the following week’s main event.

However take the period from 2007 through 2012 when the tournament was moved to its week before Augusta place in the schedule and you’ll find that 5 of the 6 champions were elite, top 50 players. Rule nobody out, but one trend is quite defining: no winner here since 2007 had won a strokeplay PGA Tour tournament in the same season prior to winning the Shell Houston Open (Hunter Mahan in 2012 had won the World Matchplay in February prior to winning in Humble).

As ever then, this week for me is all about player desire. Some players will undoubtedly go for the win, whilst others will know their Masters history and will use the week as a great warm-up for the rigours of Augusta National.

The Tournament Course itself is scoreable, but ultimately winners here need to hit a high number of greens in regulation and that’s possible with above average green sizes. Wind-positive players are a must, but for me the golf course rewards aggression as players need to score well on the short par-4 12th and on a set of par-5s which ranked as the 6th most difficult on the PGA Tour last season. Softer conditions are expected this week which should see the winning score move slightly towards the -20/268 level we saw when Mickelson won here in 2011.

My selections are as follows: