KLM Open Tips 2024 - Golf Betting System

Paul Williams' KLM Open Tips 2024

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The Netherlands is our next stop on the DP World Tour as we head towards a slightly more consistent run of events in the lead up to the Open Championship in a month’s time. KLM have continued their support of this event after a 2-year break after Covid to once again give the Dutch Open a title sponsor, however with a $2.5m prize fund this event is undoubtedly still one of the lower tier affairs.

Pablo Larrazabal returns to defend his KLM Open title after notching his 9^th career victory at Bernardus Golf last year, however the Spaniard sits a fair way down the betting board which is headed by Tom McKibbin at 16/1 who ranked as the highest finisher in this week’s field who played at Pinehurst, eventually finishing in a tie for 41^st.

Beyond the market leader we have the likes of Rasmus Hojgaard, Bernd Wiesberger, Matt Wallace who ventures over from his US exploits, Laurie Canter and Sebastian Soderberg, who was last seen relinquishing an 8-shot lead at the Volvo Mixed.

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Course Overview. Having flitted between Kennemer and Hilversumche since the millennium, the KLM Open has been a little more nomadic in recent years, being hosted three times each at The Dutch from 2016 to 2018 and Bernardus Golf from 2021 to 2023, however this year we return to 2019’s venue, The International.

Opened in 2012 and designed by Ian Woosnam, the course is listed as a Par 71 at just 6,914 yards with the short Par-4 11^th converted to a fifth Par-3 for this year’s event. Other tweaks from 2019 are minor and for all intents and purposes we’re on the same courses and same routing as when Sergio Garcia won here, with the exception of the changes to the 11^th.

An exposed, undulating course with wide fairways and large bentgrass greens, the rough is long and thick in places for those venturing off of the straight and narrow, and whilst the par-5s will undoubtedly produce birdies and eagles given their dimensions, that will be best achieved from off the fairway.

As ever with short, exposed tracks, the elements are the course’s best defence and a fairly benign forecast should encourage some low scores.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s KLM Open, however as noted above The International hosted the event in 2019 only and results aside from that should be considered accordingly: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2023: Pablo Larrazabal, 55/1; 2022: Victor Perez, 50/1; 2021: Kristoffer Broberg, 275/1; 2019: Sergio Garcia, 16/1; 2018: Ashun Wu, 125/1; 2017: Romain Wattel, 175/1; 2016: Joost Luiten, 18/1; 2015: Thomas Pieters, 55/1; 2014: Paul Casey, 25/1; 2013: Joost Luiten, 20/1; 2012: Peter Hanson, 22/1; 2011: Simon Dyson, 25/1; 2010: Martin Kaymer, 12/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

A gusty first two days should give way to dry, settled and increasing calm conditions as the tournament progresses. Winds will be light at 5-10mph from Saturday onwards and temperatures will nudge towards 70 Fahrenheit in any afternoon sunshine.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of our one winner here at The International gives us a little more insight into the task at hand:

2019, Sergio Garcia (-18). 301 yards (15th), 60.7% fairways (18th), 83.3% greens in regulation (3rd), 66.7% scrambling (4th), 1.75 putts per GIR (20th).

No stats were captured for runner-up Nicolai Hojgaard, however we know that he’s one of the longest players on Tour so attacking this course with the driver is quite possible.

Overall there was little variance here 5 years ago in terms of GIR performance, with even those ranking around 50^th of the weekend participants hitting 70% or more putting surfaces. Scrambling and bogey avoidance were the ultimate determinants of success here in 2019, with the top 3 making no more than 6 mistakes each on the week.

Despite having 4 Par-5s on the course, no player in the field managed to reach double-digits under par for the long holes over the 4 days combined, with Garcia’s 7-under a fairly typical score for the leading players. Where the Spaniard did excel was on the Par-4s where he co-led the field at 10-under for the week.

Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, Sergio Garcia’s metrics were pretty much what you’d expect from him with long game performance shining.

SG Tee to Green was the most consistent stat of the leading performers on the week, with only Matthew Southgate from the top 14 recorded finishers ranking outside the top 17 on that measure for the week:

2019, Sergio Garcia: T: 4th; A: 2nd; T2G: 1st; ATG: 32nd; P: 31st

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Incoming Form: Pablo Larrazabal’s 9^th DP World Tour win followed hot on the heels of his 8^th 2 starts prior when the amiable Spaniard won this event 12 months ago at Bernardus Golf. His form had been average at best until a top-10 finish in India paved the way for a quick-fire double, with a paid weekend at the US PGA Championship wedged in between.

A second DP World Tour title for Victor Perez in 2022 followed some solid if unspectacular form with 2 top-10 finishes in his last 12 starts. 21^st at the British Masters and 33^rd at the Soudal Open in the immediate build-up to last year’s renewal didn’t scream impending success, however 8^th at the ISPS Handa Championship in Spain the previous month had shown some promise at least.

The 275/1 about Kristoffer Broberg in 2021 gives you a clue about his incoming form and just two top-20 finishes in the season to that point hardly hinted at impending success. 6 weeks off since finishing 63^rd on his previous start, the Swede coasted to victory having done the hard work over the first 3 days.

Before that, Sergio Garcia’s immediate form was nothing to write home about before he converted this title the in 2019, however he’d sat inside the top 10 heading into Sunday at Crans on his previous start.

Ashun Wu’s patchy season had taken a positive step the week before he obliged for us in this event in 2018 at 125/1, having finished 6th the week before at Crans-sur-Sierre; Wattel was having a poor season before capturing his maiden European Tour title in 2017 and 175/1 was indicative of the year he was having which, until that point, had seen no finish better than 24th on Tour.

Joost Luiten had twice finished runner-up earlier that season, and 33rd at the US PGA as well as 27th at the Olympics was clearly strong form relative to the field in 2016; Pieters had won a fortnight before, gaining his maiden European Tour victory in the Czech Republic; Casey had been playing predominantly in the USA and back-to-back top-22 finishes in higher company.

Luiten in 2013 had won the Lyoness Open earlier in the summer and Peter Hanson had finished 3rd at Augusta that season. Simon Dyson had won the Irish Open 5 events before capturing his 3rd KLM Open title in 2011, and Martin Kaymer’s 4 stroke victory in 2010 was his first start since winning the US PGA Championship at Whistling Straits:

2023, Pablo Larrazabal: 50/65/63/47/20/28/56/38/10/MC/1/65
2022, Victor Perez: 8/24/46/58/60/53/55/MC/8/MC/21/33
2021, Kristoffer Broberg: MC/MC/54/MC/MC/MC/MC/12/37/52/MC/63
2019, Sergio Garcia: 5/MC/4/MC/MC/52/MC/7/67/40/MC/23
2018, Ashun Wu: MC/64/60/47/MC/DQ/MC/11/MC/MC/49/6
2017, Romain Wattel: 24/31/66/MC/51/MC/MC/26/MC/33/MC/65
2016, Joost Luiten: 2/2/44/MC/27/6/16/9/MC/MC/33/27
2015, Thomas Pieters: MC/18/33/MC/MC/24/39/MC/60/33/35/1
2014, Paul Casey: 16/MC/13/24/56/33/22/14/47/MC/18/22
2013, Joost Luiten: 15/21/8/MC/11/1/10/2/49/MC/4/44
2012, Peter Hanson: 14/52/15/17/3/MC/61/23/63/7/59
2011, Simon Dyson: 5/3/20/MC/MC/25/9/1/33/51/15/16
2010, Martin Kaymer: MC/34/MC/28/12/8/21/6/MC/7/22/1

Event Form. Pablo Larrazabal’s form at the KLM Open was strong from his previous starts at various venues with 5 consecutive top-20 finishes and a best of 2^nd back in 2012 to his name, so picking him on a combination of current and event form last year wasn’t overly difficult.

Prior to that, there are no real clues from the previous 3 winners of this event as Sergio Garcia’s win in 2019 was both his first attempt at the Dutch Open and his competitive debut in Holland full stop. Kristoffer Broberg’s trio of missed cuts wasn’t exactly screaming for him to be backed in 2021 and Victor Perez’s only previous visit to Holland had also ended on the Friday.

2018 winner Ashun Wu had fairly non-descript event form before winning, however he’d sat in 6th position going into the weekend the year before to give some indication that he was comfortable on the course and in the area.

2017 winner Romain Wattel had missed the cut at The Dutch on his previous attempt, however a 5th place finish at Kennemer in 2014 masks the fact that he led by 3 shots going into the final round before stumbling to a closing 74.

2016 winner Joost Luiten won this event for the 2nd time having previously triumphed in 2013, whereas 2011 winner Simon Dyson has notched 3 KLM Open successes over his career:

2023, Pablo Larrazabal: MC/34/MC/2/9/5/20/11
2022, Victor Perez: MC
2021, Kristoffer Broberg: MC/MC/MC
2019, Sergio Garcia: Debut
2018, Ashun Wu: 46/31
2017, Romain Wattel: MC/MC/MC/5/MC/MC
2016, Joost Luiten: MC/MC/2/MC/MC/57/6/MC/1/5/23
2015, Thomas Pieters: 30/22
2014, Paul Casey: 46/41
2013, Joost Luiten: MC/MC/2/MC/MC/57/6/MC
2012, Peter Hanson: 28/MC
2011, Simon Dyson: 60/1/27/12/1/MC
2010, Martin Kaymer: 55

With conditions improving as the tournament progresses, Sergio Garcia’s 18-under total from 2019 could prove to be a good benchmark for this week’s test. A patient approach that minimised bogeys was key here 5 years ago and a similar story may well unfold on our return to The International.

My selections are as follows:

Guido Migliozzi 2pts EW 33/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Tom McKibbin heads the betting this week in another DP World Tour event where the favourites look there to be taken on.

Of those near the top of the market, Matt Wallace was the most appealing as he drops down in grade from the PGA Tour and returns to a venue where he finished 3^rd in 2019, however early bird punters have been aware of his chances on Monday and any juice in his price has all but gone and I suspect he’ll end up favourite.

Whether Sebastian Soderberg can bounce back from his Sunday horror show in Sweden remains to be seen although he’s been otherwise playing some great golf, however despite seriously testing my patience in Germany on his last start, I’ll keep faith in Guido Migliozzi this week across the border in the Netherlands.

The Italian looked primed to capture his 4^th DP World Tour title at the start of the month, heading into the final round tied with Laurie Canter who’d shown enough frailty on a Sunday in the past to give us serious hope that he’d convert. The 78 that followed wasn’t in the script though, however there was more than enough in his first 3 rounds to suggest that his final round was simply a bad day at the office and nothing more.

2^nd in China where he ranked 9^th for SG Tee to Green and 24^th in Belgium where he improved to 5^th in the field on that metric whilst topping the field for SG Approach, it was the putter that really shone in Germany for the first 3 days as the 27 year-old ranked 2^nd for SG Putting before his final day woes.

Of the key numbers I looked at for this week’s test, Guido was prominent in virtually all categories. 44^th for SG Tee to Green, 33^rd for SG Approach, 42^nd for GIR and 34^th for Bogey avoidance puts him in the top third or better on Tour for each metric, despite racking up 4 missed cuts in 2024 before his form improved in China.

Like many this week, this will be Migliozzi’s competitive course debut, however he was competitive on his Netherlands debut at Bernardus Golf the year before last, sitting in 3^rd place heading into Sunday before eventually finishing 10^th, and we know from past experience that Dutch form seems to carry across courses. RESULT: Winner

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Johannes Veerman 1pt EW 45/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Johannes Veerman is another player I’ve backed in the recent past to no avail who I’m going to keep the faith with this week in Amsterdam.

2^nd at the Indian Open where the American led the field for GIR and SG Approach, he followed that up with an 8^th place finish in China where he ranked 4^th for SG Off the Tee and 5^th for SG Tee to Green. Of course the 32 year-old’s performance levels dipped when carrying my money in Belgium, eventually finishing in a tie for 41^st, however his approach play was back on song in Germany the week after, once again topping the field for SG Approach whilst ranking 7^th for SG Tee to Green,

So with long game metrics very much aligned with what I’d expect to see from this week’s winner, a weekend off in Sweden in far worse conditions than we should expect this week may have done little more than give the 32 year-old an extended break, and keep him just far enough away from the bookies’ radar to make him a backable each-way proposition this week.

5 attempts at this event over the years have resulted in a best finish of 6^th at Bernardus Golf in 2021, however he does also have practical experience of this week’s venue having finished 40^th here in 2019. 3^rd for SG Approach and 6^th for SG Tee to Green that week were promising numbers, let down at the time by a poor putting week, and although the flat stick still isn’t his strongest suit, he’s undoubtedly been far more neutral when it comes to Strokes Gained putting in recent times. RESULT: T10

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Joost Luiten 1pt EW 50/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

I never need much of an excuse to back Joost Luiten, and when it comes to supporting the Dutchman on home soil here at a backable each-way price, I can find little reason to oppose him as he celebrates his Olympic qualification which was confirmed on Monday.

Joost is one of those players who just fits certain tests and these shorter, exposed layouts in his homeland suit him perfectly. Of his six career victories at DP World Tour level, two have come in this event at Kennemer and The Dutch in 2013 and 2016 respectively, and you can add a 2007 runner-up finish plus three further top-10 finishes to his list of accomplishments in the Netherlands. Some players feel the pressure in their home Open, Joost simply thrives on it.

Those six wins all came between 12- and 19-under par, putting this week’s test very much in Luiten’s wheelhouse. Plus the 38 year-old has competitive form here at The International to accompany the casual rounds he’s played here over the years, finishing 10^th back in 2019 when it was played at the start of September.

Joost arrives here off the back of a missed cut in Belgium and a mid-pack 33^rd at the Volvo Mixed where he bemoaned the weather conditions. Prior to that he’d notched three top-14 finishes in just four starts, and with better weather expected here this week I think that his odds are a little on the generous side. RESULT: T15

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Darius van Driel 1pt EW 100/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Finally I’ll back Luiten’s compatriot and confirmed Olympic team-mate Darius van Driel whose odds are also too long in my view.

At the age of 35, van Driel finally got his DP World Tour breakthrough at the Magical Kenya Open at the end of February, holding off Joe Dean and Nacho Elvira by a couple of strokes in an assured display on the Sunday. That success followed a pair of Challenge Tour victories and another on the Alps Tour, as well as a trio of lower-grade successes on home soil over the years, however his Kenya effort was undoubtedly his biggest success to date.

5^th for SG Tee to Green and 8^th for SG Approach on the week was the recipe for success in the late winter, and although he’s understandably been a little off the boil since his victory, there was a hint last time out at the Volvo Mixed that he might be ready to push on once again when he finished 12^th overall, fuelled largely by ranking 11^th for SG Approach.

Darius has missed the cut on four of his five attempts at the KLM Open over the years, all on different courses to this week, however his 4^th place finish at Bernardus Golf in 2021 sticks out like a sore thumb, suggesting that he’s quite capable of featuring here this week as he returns to play on home soil for the first time since his breakthrough and becoming a soon-to-be Olympic participant. RESULT: MC

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