Olympic Men’s Golf Tips

The Olympics, and winning Olympic Gold, evidently means more to some players than others. With a plethora of excuses and explanations allowing a whole host of top-level golfers to pass on the chance to represent their respective countries in Tokyo, alongside a few Covid-related omissions, we’ve finally got to a field of 59, one short of the target number with Jon Rahm’s place not being replaced following his late withdrawal.

For the likes of Sungjae Im and Si Woo Kim, the reward for success is preservation of their golf careers for 2 years that will otherwise be spent in military service; for others it’s a patriotic, almost romantic desire to stand on the podium and receive a gold medal with their national anthem ringing in their ears.

Justin Rose talked about how the Olympics were a personal target of his from a long way out prior to winning in Rio 5 years ago. Being part of the wider Team GB, embracing the athlete’s lifestyle for the Games, and rubbing shoulders with world-class performers from a whole myriad of disciplines captured his imagination and ultimately helped spur him on to success.

The Englishman was a 12/1 shot back then, winning from 11/2 favourite Henrik Stenson, as the cream rose to the top over the 4 days, despite Marcus Fraser threatening to produce an upset before eventually running out of steam. In a similar price range I’m backing Justin Thomas who strikes me as a player with a comparable mindset and approach to Rose, and one who is clearly capable of performing at the top level with a Major Championship to his name and having fleetingly reached the summit of the World Rankings back in 2018.

Like Rose back in the day, Thomas has targeted this event for a long time now, stating that there was absolutely no scenario that would mean he’d miss the Games while others were dropping like flies. The 28 year-old is excited and honoured to be representing the USA alongside compatriots Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele and Patrick Reed in what looks to be an ominously good team, and my preference goes to Justin whose game might just be back on track after struggling with the flat stick for a while following his win at TPC Sawgrass back in March.

Since that Players Championship success, Justin’s long game has been excellent and had he found any kind of form on the greens he’d have likely followed up with another victory by now. 1^st for SG Off the Tee, SG Approach and SG Tee to Green at the Valpsar Championship was a case in point, and he wasn’t far off those numbers at The Memorial either, despite finishing down the field in 42^nd.

19^th at the US Open might have been the turning point though as he gained over 5 strokes on the greens and he talked about how much better he was putting when finishing 8^th in Scotland for his Open Championship warm-up, despite taking a little while to adapt to the speed of the greens, or lack of as it were. More long game excellence prevailed that week and although Royal St George’s didn’t quite go to plan, finishing 40^th, I suspect that this layout in Japan will be much more to his liking.

Twice a winner in Kuala Lumpur for the CIMB Classic as well as having won the CJ Cup twice on Jeju Island, Thomas has tended to hit the ground running when venturing East. He’s comfortable in the kind of heat we can expect this week and also on the grasses being used, having won 4 times on Bentgrass greens on the PGA Tour as well as having triumphed on the Zoysia fairways at TPC Southwind this time last year, where he ranked 2^nd for SG Approach and 1^st for SG Tee to Green where others struggled in that respect.

I expect Thomas to be right in the mix this week on a track that should play to his strengths, and given the extremely generous each-way terms for such a short field, I’ve decided to back him each-way with 7 places available. RESULT: T22

The cancellation of the 2020 Open Championship meant that Shane Lowry kept the Claret Jug for a full year longer than he could have anticipated, however now that Collin Morikawa has taken over that privilege I wonder if we’ll see a return to some of the Irishman’s best form.

Talking of Morikawa, the victor of St George’s has been installed as the bookies’ favourite following the unfortunate withdrawal of Jon Rahm who’s yet again tested positive for Covid. Whether the immensely talented 24 year-old can immediately raise his game and win Olympic Gold after being crowned Champion Golfer of the Year is debatable, however I’d put nothing past him as he continues to break records. He’s mighty short in the betting though at around 7/1 and is one I’ll tentatively pass on given I’ve already put a number of my eggs in Justin Thomas’s basket.

Actually, other than Thomas, I struggled at the top of the market which led to Lowry as my only other relatively short selection. Xander Schauffele struggles to get over the line too much for someone who’s second favourite to win this, despite his penchant for no-cut affairs, and Rory McIlroy’s work under Pete Cowen is still clearly in progress, as is evidenced by a form line of 59/MC/46 since the US Open. Viktor Hovland holds a little more appeal than Hideki Matsuyama who’s got the weight of home expectation to deal with as well the unknowns following a relatively prolonged absence following a positive Covid test, despite winning form on this property in the past.

Lowry though makes more appeal after two winless years following his Royal Portrush triumph, and with the weight now lifted from his shoulders and a Ryder Cup debut a distinct possibility, I can see a strong couple of months coming from the 34 year-old.

9^th at The Heritage, 4^th at the US PGA Championship and 6^th at The Memorial all came in a period when he was largely struggling with the putter from a Strokes Gained Perspective. No SG stats were captured on his 12^th place finish when defending at Royal St George’s, however 17^th in the field for putting average is a positive sign and when you combine that with 4^th for Driving Accuracy and 5^th for GIR on the Kent coastline, we’ve got some pretty compelling numbers.

On the subject of the Olympics, Lowry said after The Open, “Obviously, it’s a huge honour for me to go and represent my country at the Olympics. It’s something I never thought I’d do, but now I get to go and do it. I’m going with one goal and one ambition, and that’s to bring a medal back to Ireland. That’s the only reason I’m going. I’m not going there on my holidays. I’m going there to win a medal, and that’s kind of the way I look at it. I feel like I’m playing some good golf going into it. Who knows?”

Tree-lined tracks with Bentgrass greens would point to Wentworth from a European Tour perspective, where Lowry has an excellent record with 4 top-6 finishes to his name. 6^th at TPC Southwind last year also encourages from a Zoysia perspective – he was 6^th for SG Tee to Green that week – and I can see the Irishman getting to grips with this layout quickly and efficiently. RESULT: T22

Finally, a slightly longer price in what’s just a 3-pronged approach for me on this event. Mackenzie Hughes made new ground at The Open a week or so ago, finishing in 6^th place and recording the best finish of a Canadian in golf’s oldest Major whilst also recording a big personal best on golf’s elite stage, and I wonder if there’s more to come this week when representing his nation.

Aside from that effort in Kent, there’s been plenty to like about his game in recent times, after missing every cut in May. 15^th at the US Open doesn’t tell the whole story as he sat in 1^st place heading into Sunday before shooting 77; he started brightly the following week at the Travelers Championship with a 67 before fading, then reversed that feat the following week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, closing with a 67/68 weekend for a tie for 14^th. An opening 66 at Royal St George’s was followed up by 3 more rounds in the 60s and he should be heading to Japan in fine spirits.

The 30 year-old’s sole PGA Tour victory came at a Fazio re-design back in 2016 at Sea Island and a pair of top-3 finishes at the Corales Championship on his last 2 attempts rubber-stamps his liking for tracks that Tom’s had a hand in, one way or another.

7^th at East Lake was a useful outing on Zoysia fairways and he sat 2^nd after the first day at TPC Southwind in 2018 before having a nightmare 2^nd round to miss the cut. Perhaps more relevant though, if at a lower level, was his breakthrough on the Web.com Tour at the time in 2016 at the Price Cutter Charity Championship which is held on the Highland Springs track in Missouri which features the same combination of Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens.

I think he’ll like what he sees course-wise in Tokyo and he’s approaching the Games in positive fashion, “I’m excited. I feel like just thinking about myself, I do think I have a strong chance, and I’ll go over there believing that I have a chance to win,” he said in interview after his effort in England last time out. RESULT: 50th