Check out our First Round Leader form stats, history stats and tee times here.
The First Round Leader (FRL) market is fascinating given there are many ways to review the data to hand.
How does the weather forecast impact conditions? Will it be softer earlier, firmer later, windier for some, warmer for others? What tee times have the recent FRL winners had? Have the recent FRL winners started well in this event in the past? Have the recent FRL winners started well in their recent events; have they even been playing well in recent events?
Lots of questions and the odd red herring along the way I’m sure, however I think there are a few factors to consider which might help point us in the right direction.
First up the weather: The latest weather forecast for Aronimink is here.
Overnight rain on Wednesday should have just about cleared by the time the players start on Thursday morning, leaving a dry and mostly sunny day with temperatures edging up to the low 60s Fahrenheit by early afternoon after a chilly start. The wind will hover around 10-12mph, although there’s a hint that the strongest gusts may dissipate a little by the afternoon.
Looking at recent US PGA Championship history, going back to 2011 the morning wave has produced 13 of the 20 players who either led or co-led after day 1 in this event.
The exceptions to the rule were Adam Scott who matched Jim Furyk’s 65 from a 13:45 tee time in 2013; Ryan Palmer who also shot 65 the year after to co-lead with Kevin Chappell and Lee Westwood; Kevin Kisner who equalled Thorbjorn Olesen’s early 67 in 2017 here at Quail Hollow from a 13:55 tee time; Gary Woodland who broke our hearts in 2018 from a 13:26 tee time to pip Rickie Fowler by shooting 64; Brendon Todd who equalled Jason Day’s early round of 65 in 2020; Corey Conners who took the solo lead 5 years ago from a 13:03 tee time with an opening round of 67; and finally Jhonattan Vegas who sat top of the pile last year from a 14:26 start.
With the exception of the aforementioned Ryan Palmer, all first round leaders since 2011 had shown some snippets of form in the very recent past. 6 of Woodland’s previous 8 rounds had been in the 60s prior to shooting 64 in the first round at Bellerive in 2018. In 2017 Kisner was 3rd after the first round in Ohio and Olesen had finished 10th overall courtesy of a 67/75 weekend.
Jimmy Walker, who led from wire-to-wire in 2016 to capture his maiden Major title, had also started brightly at the Bridgestone and sat 2nd after 18 holes whereas Dustin Johnson, who led the US PGA on his own in 2015 after a first round 66, had also produced some good opening form at Akron where he was 2nd going into the weekend.
More recently, Brooks Koepka’s opening 63 in 2019 followed on from having finished 1st and 4th after day one in his previous 3 starts, whereas Day (15th) and Todd (2nd) had both started brightly at St Jude the week before arriving at TPC Harding Park in 2020. 2021’s first round leader Corey Conners had finished 8th at The Masters, 7th at The PLAYERS and had been FRL at the Arnold Palmer Invitational before that, so was clearly playing nicely. Rory’s fast-finishing 2nd at Augusta, followed by 5th at Quail Hollow, also fits the narrative perfectly ahead of his fast start at Southern Hills, and Bryson DeChambeau had shot a second round 63 at LIV Tulsa the week before his first round effort 3 years ago.
Xander Schauffele’s 62 at Valhalla the year before last followed an opening 64 the week before at the Wells Fargo where he led from day 1 to day 3 before eventually losing out to Rory McIlroy on the Sunday. And to complete the picture, Jhonattan Vegas’s opening round of 64 last year at Quail Hollow shouldn’t have been a complete shock as he’d opened with 63 on his last start at the Byron Nelson a fortnight before to sit 2nd after day 1.
Essentially then a spark of life in the very recent past seems to be a good pointer for this.
The last time we visited Aronimink for the 2018 BMW Championship it was a short field with bunched tee times, so that gives us little in the way of additional clues. A soft course proved scoreable though with both Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy shooting 62 (-8) from 11.30am and 12.47pm respectively.
With the prospect of soft conditions following overnight rain for the early starters with low temperatures, offset by a gradually drying course and warmer conditions in the afternoon, I see no clear draw bias and have backed a player from each side of the draw accordingly.
My selections for First Round Leader are as follows:
