If you’re betting on the Safeway Open First Round Leader market then check out our combined FRL current/event form stats here.

Welcome to the 2018/2019 PGA Tour season! Just 2 weeks after crowning Justin Rose as the 2017/18 FedEx Cup Champion, the 2018/19 PGA Tour kicks-off in California at the Safeway Open.

Despite its establishment as recently as 2013, the wraparound season format still takes some getting used to and 2019 will yet again see some considerable changes. With the season now ending on the last weekend of August, ahead of us are 46 tournaments – 3 less than last season. The Players Championship moves from May to March creating a 4-week Florida swing; the PGA Championship moves from August to May, meaning that the 4 Major Championships are contained within a 14-week window; the FedEx St Jude becomes a WGC-Invitational replacing the Bridgestone at Firestone, a week after the Open Championship; and 2019 will also see the new 3 tournament FedEx Cup PlayOff format with the Northern Trust, BMW Championship and Tour Championship. We’ll also see 2 new events in the summer with the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit and the 3M Open in Minnesota. There are returns to Coco Beach G&CC (Puerto Rico Open), Bethpage Black (PGA Championship), Hamilton G&CC (RBC Canadian Open), Pebble Beach (U.S. Open), Royal Portrush (Open Championship), Liberty National GC (The Northern Trust) and Medinah CC (BMW Championship). The RBC Canadian Open moves from the week before the Open Championship to the week before the U.S. Open.

The 2018 Safeway Open at the classical Silverado Country Club sees a weaker renewal than we saw in 2017 when team USA Ryder Cup members Tony Finau, Phil Mickelson and Webb Simpson all played, but Brendan Steele goes for a famous three-peat and Phil Mickelson returns direct from Paris. As ever with a mix of solid PGA Tour players and a raft of new web.com Tour products to cast our eye over, we’ll be in for an interesting week.

Over on the European Tour, Paul Williams previews the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship – you can read his thoughts on that event here.

Safeway Open – Featured Bookmaker: 

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Course Guide: Silverado Country Club was purchased in 2010 by a small group of individuals including Johnny Miller who soon set about updating both the North and South courses. Set in the rich wine growing country of the Napa Valley, the North Course had played host to the PGA Tour from 1968 to 1976 and also the Champions Tour from 1977 to 1980. Miller’s goal had always been to attract the PGA Tour back to the North Course with a view to potentially landing the U.S. Open or PGA Championship in the future. So 2011 saw Miller re-design both courses with the 1966 Trent Jones Jnr tournament course receiving a renovation that added 250 yards and saw a host of holes re-routed.

North Course, Silverado Country Club, Napa, California: Designer: Trent Jones Jnr, 1966 with a Miller redesign, 2011; Course Type: Classical; Par: 72; Length: 7,166 yards; Water Hazards: 2; Fairways: Bentgrass with Poa Annua, Kentucky Bluegrass and Rye; Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass and Rye, 3″; Greens: 6,200 sq.ft average featuring Bentgrass with Poa Annua; Stimpmeter: 11.5ft; Course Scoring Average 2014: 71.70 (-0.30), Difficulty Rank 24 of 52 courses, 2015: 71.11 (-0.89), Difficulty Rank 33 of 50 courses. 2016: 70.83 (-1.17), Difficulty Rank 36 of 50 courses. 2017: 71.76 (-0.24), Difficulty Rank 23 of 51 courses.

Silverado Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Silverado and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:

• Silverado: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:26; 300:23; 325:24; 350:24.
• East Lake: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:25; 300:24; 325:23; 350:22.
• Aronimink: 250 yards from the tee: 37 yards wide; 275:40; 300:38; 325:36: 350:35.
• TPC Boston: 250 yards from the tee: 38 yards wide; 275:36; 300:35; 325:28; 350:33.
• Ridgewood: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:31; 300:30; 325:27; 350:27.
• Sedgefield: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:26; 300:25; 325:22; 350:22.

Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Robert Trent Jones Jnr designs include:

• Chambers Bay – 2015 US Open
• CordeValle – 2010-2013 Frys.com Open
• The Mines Resort & GC – 2010-2012 CIMB Classic

Course Overview: The North Course is a classical, tree-lined track that’s set up to be scoreable at the Safeway Open. It’s not overly long at just over 7,150 yards, however the Par 72 features plenty of dog-legs with Napa Valley Oaks and Redwoods strategically placed to block approach shots. Miller re-routed a number of holes, lengthened the course and re-worked the bunkering with the goal of creating an ‘Augusta-type’ feel. Fairways are on the tight side and are difficult to hit – 3rd most difficult in 2017, 6th most difficult in 2016 – but the penalty is not massive despite 3″ rough. Green complexes and surrounding rough are the main defence with some fairly severe undulations, but with winning totals at -15/273 (3 times) and -18/270, this course is more than attackable – especially when green conditions are receptive.

This event has traditionally favoured free-scoring players who can putt beautifully and confidently on greens that have Poa Annua within their structure. As we know Poa Annua is not every player’s cup of tea. Previous to 2015, a winners’ list with Molder, Blixt, Walker and Bae clearly indicated that strong putters, and those with an excellent scrambling game from the rough, had an advantage in Northern California. But in the past 3 renewals ball-strikers in the shape of Brendan Steele (x2) and Emiliano Grillo have won here at Silverado. Steele has always had a penchant for putting on the West Coast though having grown up in California.

Set-up wise, the North Course at Silverado is a classical-style golf course – indeed Johnny Miller has a long-term goal of landing a U.S. Open or PGA Championship here. Fairly tight, tree-lined fairways can block approach shots and pin positions can be tucked into areas where accessibility is difficult. To add to the difficulty, 2017 saw 7 green complexes feature closely mown run-off areas which grab wayward approaches. These now feature across the 15th to 18th holes just to add a new variant. The greens themselves, especially on the front side, are described as severely sloping by many, which in turn has placed Silverado in the top-half of difficulty on Tour when it comes to proximity to the pin since its arrival on the schedule. Another insightful statistic is that the course only ranked 14th (2014), 21st (2015), 5th (2016) and 17th (2017) for Going for the Green. With 5 holes (the 5th, 8th, 9th, 16th and 18th) where Going for the Green becomes a factor, look for players who can be successfully aggressive with their approach shots.

Winners: 2017: Brendan Steele (-15); 2016: Brendan Steele (-18); 2015: Emiliano Grillo (-15); 2014: Sang-moon Bae (-15); 2013: Jimmy Walker (-17); 2012: Jonas Blixt (-16); 2011: Bryce Molder (-17); 2010: Rocco Mediate (-15).

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Top 20 Finishes.

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Phil Mickelson, Patrick Cantlay, Ryan Moore, Cameron Champ, Roberto Castro, Brendan Steele, Sung-jae Im, Scott Langley, Hunter Mahan and Brandt Snedeker.

Recent Player Skill Rankings: These rankings are based on a 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Bridgestone Invitational / Barracuda Championship and includes PGA Tour, European Tour and web.com Playoff events. Players must have played in a minimum of 2 Tour events to be included and rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Driving Accuracy: 1) James Hahn; 2) Kramer Hickok / Ryan Moore / Chez Reavie; 5) Tyler Duncan; 6) Emiliano Grillo / Russell Knox; 8) Abraham Ancer / J.J. Spaun; 10) Joel Dahmen / Brady Schnell; 12) Shawn Stefani; 13) Denny McCarthy / Ted Potter Jnr / John Senden; 16) Roberto Diaz / Fabian Gomez; 18) Corey Conners; 19) Patrick Cantlay / Sung-jae Im / Martin Laird.
• Greens in Regulation: 1) Patrick Cantlay; 2) Cameron Champ; 3) Luke List; 4) Lucas Glover / Denny McCarthy; 6) Alex Prugh; 7) Anders Albertson; 8) Fabian Gomez / Shawn Stefani; 10) Max Homa; 11) Corey Conners; 12) Cameron Davis / James Hahn / Kyoung-Hoon Lee; 15) Kramer Hickok / Chez Reavie; 17) Jim Herman / Russell Knox; 19) Aaron Baddeley / David Hearn / Patrick Rodgers / Jhonattan Vegas.
• Putting Average (Putts per GIR): 1) Sung Kang / Patrick Rodgers; 3) Ricky Barnes; 4) Martin Trainer; 5) Sung-jae Im; 6) Sang-moon Bae / Scott Brown; 8) Roberto Diaz / Harris English / Peter Malnati / Seth Reeves / Michael Thompson; 13) Sam Saunders; 14) Cameron Davis / Jim Knous; 16) Beau Hossler / Shawn Stefani / Adam Svensson; 19) Brandt Snedeker; 20) Anirban Lahiri / Phil Mickelson / Ted Potter Jnr.

Winners & Prices: 2017: Steele 33/1; 2016: Steele 50/1; 2015: Grillo 50/1; 2014: Bae 150/1; 2013: Walker 30/1; 2012: Blixt 28/1; 2011: Molder40/1; 2010: Mediate 150/1; Past 4 Renewals Average: 71/1. Average: 66/1. For a full summary of winner’s odds on the PGA Tour since 2010 click here.

Historical Weather:

• 2017: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 84. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 84. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 86. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 84. N wind 15-25 mph, with gusts to 30 mph.
• 2016: Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 69. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Friday: Cloudy, with moderate rain showers in the afternoon. High of 66. Wind SW 10-20 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 66, with heavy rain in the afternoon. Sunday: Cloudy, with a high of 66. Wind SW 8-15 mph.
• 2015: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 78. Wind SW at 8-14 mph. Friday: High of 79. SW wind at 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 77. Wind S at 10-15 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy in the afternoon, with a high of 75. SW wind at 6-12 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Napa, California is here. This part of California, famous for its vineyards, is notoriously dry. So the interest this week from a meteorological perspective is rain on Tuesday prior to the tournament, which by the looks of it will give the course a 4-5 hour drenching. Across the tournament itself there will be clear conditions throughout with no rain forecast. Wind here is often a feature, so expect a freshening breeze in the afternoons (go for AM FRL tee-times – see below) which should be around the 12-15 mph. The strongest day for breeze looks to be Sunday. Temperatures climb from 21 degrees Celsius on Thursday through to a very pleasant 28 degrees Celsius on Sunday.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of Silverado winners Brendan Steele, Emiliano Grillo and Sang-moon Bae gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

• 2017, Brendan Steele (-15). 328 yards (1st), 67.9% fairways (3rd), 79.2% greens in regulation (4th), 29″10″ proximity to hole (6th), 73.3 % scrambling (7th), 1.81 putts per GIR (60th).
• 2016, Brendan Steele (-18). 292 yards (23rd), 64.3% fairways (5th), 75.0% greens in regulation (21st), 30″0″ proximity to hole (16th), 72.2 % scrambling (4th), 1.65 putts per GIR (8th).
• 2015, Emiliano Grillo (-15). 300 yards (37th), 64.3% fairways (8th), 73.6% greens in regulation (16th), 30″0″ proximity to hole (3rd), 73.7 % scrambling (5th), 1.74 putts per GIR (41st).
• 2014, Sang-moon Bae (-15). 299 yards (26th), 55.4% fairways (45th), 75.0% greens in regulation (6th), 28″5″ proximity to hole (4th), 77.8 % scrambling (3rd), 1.70 putts per GIR (18th).

Tournament Skill Averages:

• Driving Distance: 22nd, Driving Accuracy: 15th, Greens in Regulation: 12th, Proximity to Hole: 7th, Scrambling: 5th, Putting Average 32nd.

Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:

• 2017, Brendan Steele (-15). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 49th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 29th.
• 2016, Brendan Steele (-18). SG Off the Tee: 20th, SG Approach: 8th, SG Around the Green: 38th, SG Tee to Green: 11th, SG Putting: 6th.
• 2015, Emiliano Grillo (-15). SG Off the Tee: 18th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 5th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 61st.

Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:

• SG Off the Tee: 13th, SG Approach: 4th, SG Around the Green: 31st, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 32nd.

So let’s take a view from players as to how Silverado has played in recent years and what specific skills it requires:

Brendan Steele: “The difficulty on this course is definitely on the greens. You have to be careful where you leave it. They’re quick and got a lot of slope. A few have tons of slope. Nos. 3, 4, 8, these holes, like if you get on the wrong side you’ve got no chance. As the week goes on it’s going to firm up. If you’re out of position it’s going to be almost impossible to hold the greens, as it was last year. I think even though there are some shorter holes that they’re really good strategically because they have areas where you can’t be always. So you know, okay, if I’m going to lay up here I need to lay up left so I can come in this way or you have the tree in your way or there is a bunker on the other side. If you’re hitting good shots you can score well, and if you’re not hitting good shots it’ll penalized you a little bit.“

Emiliano Grillo: “The course asks you to be aggressive a little bit, but you have to be very smart out there. If you play smart you can score well. Out here you got to play well off the tee. You got to play from the fairway. If not, you can get some bogeys out there. I think the main key is staying patient and hitting some solid shots.“

Justin Rose: “Yeah, this is a golf course where you have to drive it well. If you do drive it well around here, you set up a lot of birdie chances. The par-5s are all within range and then there are a lot of par-4s where you have wedges into the green. That’s why you see guys going low. Also a tricky course. Has its subtleties. You got to put the ball in play. There are some doglegs. Pretty narrow off the tee. It’s kind of the course if you play well you can go low. It’s going to find out our if you’re not on your game.“

Sang-moon Bae: “Honestly, I really like this course because it’s like a classic – always classic courses you need really good iron shots for second, really narrow, small greens, a lot of undulation. I think the greens were pretty soft this week, but the fairways were a little firm, but rough is not easy. So I drove it pretty good, but iron shot was really, really good, and that’s why I made a lot of birdies this week.“

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the last 7 winners:

• 2017 – Brendan Steele: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 3rd.
• 2016 – Brendan Steele: Round 1: 9th, Round 2: 16th, Round 3: 6th.
• 2015 – Emiliano Grillo: Round 1: 13th, Round 2: 19th, Round 3: 4th.
• 2014 – Sang-moon Bae: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2013 – Jimmy Walker: Round 1: 34th, Round 2: 28th, Round 3: 4th.
• 2012 – Jonas Blixt: Round 1: 5th, Round 2: 7th, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2011 – Bryce Molder: Round 1: 37th, Round 2: 12th, Round 3: 4th.

Incoming form of winners since 2011:

• Brendan Steele: 44th BMW/56th Dell Tech/MC Northern Trust/MC PGA.
• Brendan Steele: 64th BMW/72nd Deutsche/22nd Barclays/17th Travelers.
• Emiliano Grillo: 1st web.com Final/MC Nationwide/2nd Small Business/9th Hotel Fitness.
• Sang-moon Bae: 15th ANA Open/MC Barclays/14th Wyndham/MC Canada.
• Jimmy Walker: 11th BMW/MC Deutsche/54th Barclays/MC Wyndham.
• Jonas Blixt: 3rd Shriners/20th Deutsche/44th Barclays/55th Wyndham.
• Bryce Molder: 10th Shriners/64th Barclays/56th PGA/10th Barracuda.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave (where applicable) and winning score since 2010. For full first round leader stats click here.

• 2017 – Duncan/Hoge/Steele – All AM -7/65 – 125/1, 100/1, 45/1.
• 2016 – Piercy – AM -10/62.
• 2015 – Steele – AM -8/64.
• 2014 – Bae/Gonzales AM/PM Split -6/66.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Poa Annua and Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 4 – Phil Mickelson, Brandt Snedeker.
• 2 – J.J. Henry, Hunter Mahan, Scott Piercy, Brendan Steele.
• 1 – Aaron Baddeley, Sang-moon Bae, Jonas Blixt, Ben Crane, Jason Dufner, Emiliano Grillo, Bill Haas, James Hahn, Russell Knox, Sean O’Hair, Ted Potter Jnr, Chris Stroud, Vaughn Taylor, Nick Watney.

The renamed Safeway Open – previously the Frys.com – produces some interesting trends. Although the tournament has had various schedule slots across the ‘Fall Series’ before becoming the now PGA Tour curtain-raiser, all winners have been at 150/1 or less across the past 7 renewals. All of these players arrived in California having seen recent competitive action, although Brendan Steele of late highlights that immediate top 10 form here is no requirement for victory. Steele, Bae, Molder, Blixt and Walker also had previous main Tour top-10 finishes ‘Out West’ to their names. Grillo, on the other hand, was quite simply playing exceptional golf after winning the web.com Tour Championship on his previous outing. This tournament in recent times has undoubtedly promoted maiden Tour winners: Molder, Blixt and Walker at CordeValle; Grillo became yet another in 2015 at Silverado at 50/1. Sang-moon Bae had won at TPC Four Seasons in 2013 prior to winning here in 2014 and Brandon Steele, who this week goes for the three-peat, had only tasted PGA Tour victory once, a distant 4 years prior to lifting the trophy here in 2016.

Spreading things slightly broader and taking the first tournament after the Tour Championship into account across the last 8 seasons – naturally this includes the Fall Series from 2010 through to 2013 – 7 of those 8 tournaments have been won by players ranked in the top 90 in the Official Golf World Rankings. Only Bae won with a triple digit OWGR at 195:

• Bill Haas – 2010 Viking Classic – OWGR 89 – 22/1
• Kevin Na – 2011 Shriners Open – OWGR 76 – 60/1
• Ryan Moore – 2012 Shriners Open – OWGR 44 – 14/1
• Jimmy Walker – 2013 Frys.com Open – OWGR 66 – 30/1
• Sang-moon Bae – 2014 Frys.com Open – OWGR 195 – 125/1
• Emiliano Grillo – 2015 Frys.com Open – OWGR 72 – 50/1
• Brendan Steele – 2016 Safeway Open – OWGR 88 – 50/1
• Brendan Steele – 2017 Safeway Open – OWGR 59 – 33/1

My selections are as follows: