The Masters FRL And Alternative Bets

A late tee time for Jordan Spieth – he goes out in the final group at 2pm alongside Paul Casey and Brooks Koepka – could well result in yet another flying start around Augusta National for the 2015 winner. As I highlighted in the preamble, the final two groups have had considerable success here on the Thursday in recent times and although the forecast suggests no significant advantage or disadvantage to any of the tee times, it’s often the case that conditions ease a little around this piece of manicured perfection in Georgia towards the end of the day.

5 attempts at The Masters has yielded 3 first round leads for the 25 year-old with rounds of 64 in 2015, 66 in 2016 and 66 again last year being enough for at least a 2-stroke lead on each occasion. Current form will be the main objection to Jordan’s chances in the outright market – he’s failed to produce a top-10 finish anywhere since the Open Championship last July and 30^th last week in Texas was his best finish of 2019 – however first round positions of 5^th, 9^th, 2^nd and 6^th in his last 6 strokeplay starts suggests that he’s getting off to decent starts without seeing it through for 4 days. 68/68 to open last week at the Valero put Spieth into 2^nd spot heading into the weekend before fading and I wouldn’t be remotely surprised to see something similar here after a fast Thursday start. RESULT: LOSE

At the other end of the draw is Charles Howell III who goes out at 9.47am alongside Eddie Pepperell and former Masters winner Charl Schwartzel. Marc Leishman, Bill Haas and Jordan Spieth have all produced FRL wins here from tee times in a similar ball-park in recent years and the 39 year-old, who was born and raised in Augusta, could get off to a flyer with plenty of friends and family in attendance. Although his record at The Masters is solid yet unspectacular and he hasn’t played here since 2012, he has got off to a decent start in past when sitting 8^th after day 1 in 2004.

Howell was the First Round leader at the RSM Classic at the start of the PGA Tour wraparound season, which he went on to convert for his 3^rd PGA Tour title, and his rock-solid form since then suggests to me that a low round is possible at any point in time – if he’s going to produce one this week then it’s likely to be early in the week before the pressure takes a firm grip in my view. RESULT: LOSE

A 1.16pm tee time alongside Francesco Molinari and Tyrrell Hatton will feel like a European Tour jaunt for Rafa Cabrera-Bello and a relaxed approach could see the birdies start to mount up in the first round, as they often can for the Spaniard. Last year’s 38^th place finish contained the 34 year-old’s best round here at Augusta National as he opened with 69 to sit in a tie for 4^th place after day 1 and it’s fair to say that he’s one of these players who often gets out of the blocks quickly in many events before treading water for the next couple of days and eventually back-dooring a top-10 finish.

3^rd at Bay Hill a month ago was Rafa’s best regular PGA Tour event career finish and was fuelled once again by a flying start where he shot 65 on the Thursday to lead by 2 strokes and something similar here isn’t out of the question. Lee Westwood, Jordan Spieth and Charley Hoffman have all finished up FRL here from similar tee times in recent years and similarly to Howell, his best round may well come while the pressure’s at a minimum. RESULT: LOSE

All the hype has been around Charley Hoffman’s chances in the first round leader market which has seen his price slashed as short as 25/1 in places, however for me there’s more likelihood that he continues his generally impressive efforts at Augusta now that he’s found some good form once again on the PGA Tour. 27^th, 9^th, 29^th, 22^nd and 12^th last year are 5 impressive attempts here in Georgia and after a poor run of 4 successive missed cuts earlier this year, the 42 year-old appears to have found something approaching top gear in recent weeks, finishing 18th at the Valspar Championship and 2^nd last week in Texas. Soft golf courses are Charley’s forte and although Augusta will undoubtedly dry out as the week progresses, when Sunday’s forecast breezy conditions arrive he’ll also be comfortable given how positive his game is in the wind. RESULT: LOSE

Consistency has always been Charles Howell III’s key strength – after all he’s amassed over $38m in prize money in a career that’s reaped just 3 Tour wins in a career entering its 20^th year – however from a betting perspective that low conversion rate of genuine chances can be a little off-putting if backing in the outright market. The top 20 market, however, is made for the 39 year-old who churns out that kind of finish with regularity, which he’s also done twice here at Augusta National in the past. Like Hoffman, Howell also performs well in soft conditions and isn’t one to collapse when the wind starts blowing, plus he’s found some excellent form with his irons in the last 6 months or so, punctuated by his first win in over 11 years at the RSM Classic in November. 8 successive top-35 finishes in strokeplay golf since that win, 6 of which were top-20 finishes, bodes well for another middling performance here which could well pay us off for this bet. RESULT: LOSE

With 12 aces at The Masters since 2004, this bet is a great bit of fun that can keep you interested right until late on Sunday. The 4th, 6th, 12th and 16th are the par-3 chances for a hole-in-one as always, however it’s the 16th where the action really tends to take place – particularly on Sunday when the pin position is traditionally put in its friendliest position at the bottom of the green. Matt Kuchar won this bet for us in 2017, Charley Hoffman won this bet for us last year and there were 3 more aces from Shane Lowry, Davis Love III and Louis Oosthuizen in 2016, making 5 in the past 3 renewals. RESULT: WIN