Plenty of questions will be answered at East Lake Golf Club this week which hosts the 2025 PGA Tour season-ending Tour Championship. The FedEx Cup Series culminates in Georgia with the top 30 in the standings arriving in Atlanta with a genuine shot at the overall title.
I’m disappearing for a well-earned break, so the timing is pretty good as with a short 30-man field I’m not going to bet on the 2025 Tour Championship. Here’s my research preview which details recent course changes and relevant tournament trends though if you do fancy a punt.
Before we go into the detail surrounding the Tour Championship, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast, the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,600 strong, private group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
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Course Guide: East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia first hosted the Tour Championship in 1998. Back then the tournament alternated every year with the Champions Golf Club in Houston, but East Lake has been the sole host since 2004. The course is a Donald Ross original which received wholesale changes in 2023 with the course being lengthened, plus completely re-built across tee boxes, fairways, bunkering and green complexes. There were also detailed changes to agronomy both on the fairways and the greens themselves.
East Lake Golf Club, East Atlanta, Georgia: Designer: Tom Bendelow (1904) & Donald Ross 1913 with Andrew Green restoration 2023; Course Type: Mid-Score, Long Length, Classical; Par: 70; Length: 7,490 yards; Number of Holes with Water In-Play: 8; Number of Sand Bunkers: 78; Acres of Fairway: 29; Fairways: Zorro Zoysiagrass; Rough: Tifway 419 Bermudagrass 2.5″; Greens: Greens: 6,238 sq.ft average (up 619 sq.ft) featuring TifEagle Bermudagrass.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Donald Ross designs include:
Aronimink – 2010/11 AT&T National & 2018 BMW Championship
Detroit Golf Club – Rocket Mortgage Classic
East Course at Oak Hill – 2013 & 2023 PGA Championship
Pinehurst Number 2 – 2014 & 2024 US Open
Plainfield – 2011 & 2015 Barclays
Sedgefield Country Club – Wyndham Championship
Course Overview: East Lake Golf Club appeared in a new guise in 2024 after an Andrew Green restoration. A classical, tree-lined golf course, post-2023 Tour Championship the course was completely rebuilt from the ground up in 10 months and had a 13-week grow-in period. Green used previously unknown aerial photography of East Lake from 1949 as his restoration inspiration. This showed the original Donald Ross design in surprising detail and provided guidance on green shapes, bunker shapes and the overall topography of the original design.
The most notable changes to the course are reflected in the topography, greens and bunkers. Fairways were converted from Meyer Zoysia to Zorro Zoysia, which plays firmer and leads to increased roll which allows for the topography to play a greater role in the strategy of each hole.
Green complexes also had lots of work done to them. Larger in size – up circa 620 sq.ft. on average – the size, shape, contouring and surrounding run-off areas of each green complex were enhanced. On the putting surfaces, tired MiniVerde UltraDwarf Bermudagrass was replaced by TifEagle Bermudagrass, which ultimately should run faster. Naturally that depends on how tough the Tour want this week to actually play and 2024 saw Collin Morikawa shoot -22/262 around here when the course played as a Par 71.
Bunkering also had a thorough work over, with more bunkers layered at various distances from the teeing areas, requiring players to be more accurate off the tee both in line of play and distance of shot. Bunkering reverts to the 1949 style.
2025 sees another change to the course format as the 14th Hole reverts back to a long 530 yard, par-4, rather than a short par-5. That sees only the 6th and 18th playing as par-5s, which will turn this into a mid-teens to high-teens target winning score assignment.
Bill Haas: 16th BMW/61st Deutsche/24th Barclays/MC Wyndham.
Jim Furyk: 15th BMW/37th Deutsche/24th PGA/15th Bridgestone.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Our brand new predictor model is also running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
2024: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 96. Wind S 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly sunny with thunderstorms in the afternoon. High of 94. Winds S/SE at 5-10 mph. Play was suspended due to dangerous weather at 5:15 p.m. ET and resumed at 6:48 p.m. (suspension of 1 hour, 33 minutes). Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 94. Winds S at 5-10 mph. Sunday: Partly sunny. High of 91. Wind W 6-12 mph, with gusts to 15 mph.
2023: Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High of 95. Wind WNW 4-8 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny with a high of 97 degrees and winds NW at 8-13 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny with a high of 99 degrees and winds NW at 5-12 mph. Play was suspended at 5:28 p.m. ET due to a dangerous weather situation and resumed at 6:43 p.m. ET, a delay of 1 hour and 15 minutes. Sunday: Mostly sunny with a high of 96 degrees and winds SSE at 4-8 mph. The final round was suspended at 1:57 p.m. ET due to inclement weather and resumed at 3:50 p.m. ET, a delay of 1 hour and 53 minutes.
2022: Thursday: Mostly Cloudy. Scattered Showers. High of 80. Wind S 4-8 mph. Preferred lies were utilized in round one. Friday: Partly Cloudy. High of 85. Wind S 4-8 mph. Preferred lies were utilized in round two. Saturday: Partly Cloudy. High of 88. Wind SE 4-8 mph. The third round was suspended due to inclement weather at 1:29 p.m. ET Saturday and resumed at 2:25 p.m. (56 minutes). Play was again suspended at 6:36 p.m. ET and was eventually called for the day, with 14 players yet to complete their rounds. Sunday: The third round resumed at 9:45 a.m. ET Sunday and was completed at 11:03 a.m. Mostly Sunny. High of 88. Wind ESE 7-14 mph.
2021: Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high of 85. Wind NE 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy with a high of 84. Wind ENE 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny with a high of 84. Wind SE 4-8 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high of 86. Wind WSW 4-8 mph.
2020: Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high of 92. Wind WNW 10-15 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny, less humid with a high of 87. Wind N 6-12 mph. Saturday: Sunny skies with temperatures reaching into the mid-80s. Wind ENE 10-15 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 86. Wind E 5-10 mph.
2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high of 93. Wind SW at 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 91. Wind W/SW 10-15 mph. Due to inclement weather, round two was suspended from 4:07 p.m. until 5:33 p.m. (1 hour, 26 minutes). Saturday: Round three resumed as scheduled at 8 a.m. Widely scattered passing showers throughout the day. High of 79. Wind E 7-15 mph. Sunday: Overcast and cooler, with a high of 79. Wind E 7-15 mph.
2018: Thursday: Sunny with a high of 93. Wind ESE at 5-10 mph. Friday: Sunny with a high of 91. Wind SE at 5-10 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy with a high of 90. Wind SSE at 4-8 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high of 90. Wind SE at 5-10 mph.
2017: Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high of 90. Wind NNE 4-8 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy with a high of 89. Wind ENE 4-8 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy with a high of 87. Wind NE 5-10 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high of 85. Wind ENE 10-15 mph.
2016: Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high of 89. Wind NNE at 6-12 mph. Friday: Clear skies with a high of 89. Wind N at 5-10 mph. Saturday: Hot and humid conditions with a high in the lower 90s. Calm NNE wind reaching 5-10 mph in the afternoon. Sunday: Partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the lower 90s. Wind E at 5-10 mph.
2015: Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high of 88. Wind WSW at 7-12 mph. Friday: Mist and drizzle in between showers. High of 68. Wind NNE at 10-15 mph. Saturday: Rain showers all day with a high of 71. ENE wind at 7-12 mph. Sunday: Cloudy with a high of 74. Wind E at 7-12 mph.
2016 – Chappell/D Johnson/Matsuyama – Groups 7/8/15 -4/66.
2015 – Stenson – Group 14 -7/63.
2014 – Horschel/Kirk = Both Group 15 -4/66.
2013 – Stenson – Group 15 -6/64.
2012 – Rose/Woods – Groups 4 & 15 -4/66.
2011 – Bradley – Group 6 -6/64.
2010 – Casey/Donald/Ogilvy – Groups 10/12/13 -4/66.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
10 – Scottie Scheffler.
7 – Justin Thomas.
4 – Sam Burns.
3 – Russell Henley, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Rose, Nick Taylor.
2 –Patrick Cantlay, Harris English, Sepp Straka.
1 – Ludvig Aberg, Keegan Bradley, Corey Conners, Ben Griffin, Brian Harman, Sungjae Im, Shane Lowry, Maverick McNealy, Collin Morikawa, Andrew Novak, J.J. Spaun, Cameron Young.
The Tour Championship sees a new format for 2025 where all 30 qualifiers have an equal chance: win the Tour Championship and you win the FedEx Cup into the bargain. The FedEx Cup Starting Strokes Index has been scrapped which was used from 2019 – 2024. Previous to 2019 at the Tour Championship, any player ranked 1-5 had the same chance of taking the overall FedEx Cup title by winning the title.
Before the FedEx Cup Starting Strokes Index, Tiger Woods (FedEx Cup Rank 20), Xander Schauffele (Rank 26), Rory McIlroy (Rank 6), Jordan Spieth (Rank 2), Billy Horschel (Rank 2), Henrik Stenson (Rank 2) and Brandt Snedeker (Rank 5) won the Tour Championship since 2012. Bill Haas and Jim Furyk were in positions 25 and 11 respectively in the 2 years prior to that.
As I mentioned in the preamble, I’m on holiday this week so won’t be having a bet on this event – best of luck if you are having a bet.
