Check out our First Round Leader form stats, history stats and tee times here.
The First Round Leader (FRL) market is fascinating given there are many ways to review the data to hand.
How does the weather forecast impact conditions? Will it be softer earlier, firmer later, windier for some, warmer for others? What tee times have the recent FRL winners had? Have the recent FRL winners started well in this event in the past? Have the recent FRL winners started well in their recent events; have they even been playing well in recent events?
Lots of questions and the odd red herring along the way I’m sure, however I think there are a few factors to consider which might help point us in the right direction.
The latest weather forecast for Shinnecock Hills is here.
The wind will be the main talking point on Thursday and there’s potential for disruption and carnage in equal measure. 10mph winds quickly rise to 20mph as the morning progresses, with the potential for stronger gusts too – and that’s before we reach the peak. In the afternoon we could see gusts in the 40mph range, which on an exposed course like this will either make it brutally difficult or simply unplayable if balls start oscillating on the greens.
First up some history, and going back to 2011 the morning wave has produced 14 of the 22 players who either led or co-led after day 1 in this event. That includes last year when eventual winner J.J. Spaun got off to a flying start from a 7.07am tee time, opening with a round of 66 to lead by one from Thriston Lawrence who also teed off in the morning wave.
The 2018 US Open held here at Shinnecock Hills was mixed in that four players tied for the lead after opening rounds of 69, with afternoon starters Dustin Johnson and Russell Henley matching the scores recorded by Scott Piercy and Ian Poulter from earlier in the day:
- Scott Piercy: 6.45am
- Ian Poulter: 7.51am
- Russell Henley: 12.52pm
- Dustin Johnson: 1.47pm
Of the four men, only Dustin Johnson had shown any significant first round form in the lead up to the 2018 US Open, having led after day 1 at The Players Championship a month before. The only common ground between three of the four men is that Piercy, Poulter and DJ had all won an event earlier that season so confidence would likely have been high.
The dilemma this week is clear – if (and it’s a big if) play continues to completion on Thursday then the early starters are likely to have slightly more playable conditions, although that’s all relative on a tough course like Shinnecock in the wind. If there’s any kind of significant delay which pushes part of the first round into Friday then the later starters could get a break. In truth, it’s a real guessing game and punters should be cautious with their bets in this market.
As with the outright market, there are different each-way terms available for FRL bets with BetMGM leading the way by offering 7 places each way, 1/5 odds – their new customer offer is detailed below:
