A Major championship may have eluded the ultra-talented Rickie Fowler thus far in his career, however nobody would be remotely surprised if he were to pop up and contend again this week. The 22/1 for him to win outright is nowhere near as attractive as the 35/1 available on him to be first round leader though in my view and I’m happy to take the bookies on at that price. Twice in his last three starts Rickie has finished a single shot off the pace after day 1: an opening 64 at the Scottish Open was good enough for 2nd place after 18 holes last month and he produced an even better round of 63 last Thursday to kick off his Bridgestone Invitational campaign. Neither event produced a win for Rickie, however a 65 on Saturday last week added further fuel to the argument that he’s playing some strong golf at the moment without putting all 4 rounds together. From a 7.39am tee time on Thursday alongside Hideki Matsuyama and Ian Poulter, who’s also been getting out of the blocks quickly of late, the 29 year-old may well produce a sparkling opening round to set himself up for another promising Major performance similar to his opening 65 at last year’s US Open which was good enough for the outright lead after day 1. 9th after 18 holes at the 2016 US PGA Championship and 8th after 18 holes last year shows promise and any kind of improvement on that this week will produce a tidy profit for this bet. RESULT: 2nd

Steve Bamford has quite rightly put Kevin Kisner up as one of his longshots in his US PGA Championship preview and I suspect this if he is to contend it will be driven primarily from a fast start. I won’t repeat what Steve’s said in terms of KK’s raw credentials for this week, however suffice it to say that there’s a lot to like about the 34 year-old. An opening round of 67 from a late tee time at Quail Hollow in this event last year was good enough for a share of the lead alongside Thorbjorn Olesen and he maintained that lead until the final day, eventually finishing 7th. It was a similar story at Carnoustie last month, this time from an early start on the Thursday, as an opening round of 66 game him a clear lead which he kept at least a share of every evening until the final day when he couldn’t quite live with Francesco Molinari. Clearly the South Carolinian isn’t afraid of getting into position at the Majors and after a mid-division finish at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational, which nevertheless contained two rounds of 68 bookended by a 74 and 71, he could well hit the ground running again this week on the final big stage of the 2018 Major season. RESULT: T5

The 64s produced by Thorbjorn Olesen and Dustin Johnson were perhaps the most eye-catching Sunday rounds at Firestone as they both finished in a tie for 3rd courtesy of those efforts, however further down the leaderboard we find an even better round of 63 from Charl Schwartzel. 8 under through 14 holes was enough for a few quiet murmurs of ’59 watch’ to be heard, however bogeys on 16 and 17 put paid to that pipe dream before he rattled home a 20-footer on the last to complete what was still an excellent round. The former Masters champion has started to find some form in the past few months after an indifferent spell and 2nd at TPC Sawgrass this year is certainly more than noteworthy given the correlation that Steve Bamford talked through in this week’s podcast, and another top-10 finish in Germany prior to last week’s effort suggests that the South African isn’t very far away at all at present. 4th at last year’s Open Championship after day 1 is encouraging form in elite company and although he’s not been sprinting out of the blocks of late, if the trend from previous US PGA Championships holds then a player who produced a round like Schwartzel’s 63 at Firestone could well be the type who takes that momentum into the first round here. A 1.32pm tee time will mean that he’s playing in the afternoon heat which will suit him down to the ground. RESULT: T48

I’ll save the most speculative bet for last, however the First Round Leader market can regularly throw a curveball and sometimes it can pay to take a bit of a chance. Going back to 2002, nobody in this field has a better first round leader record than Jim Furyk, as is evident from our FRL stats summary, where he sits at the very top of the list. Jim’s focus has understandably been all about the Ryder Cup of late and his results have been fairly non-descript for some time now, however the 2003 US Open Champion may still have the odd explosive round in him and who’s to say he won’t produce something special from a 7.17am tee time alongside Le Golf National hopefuls Tony Finau and Xander Schauffele? We know that Jim can go low when in the mood – with two sub-60 rounds to his name of that there can be no doubt – and nestled inside his 22 US PGA Championship appearances over the years we find two FRL successes in 2002 and 2013, plus he was 4th after round 1 in 2014. 6 top-10 finishes overall in this event is also impressive, however the icing on the cake here is that he produced the best round of the week here at Bellerive back in 2008 with a sublime second round 62 as he put himself in a contending position, eventually finishing 3rd. RESULT: T33