Paul Williams

Paul Williams' US PGA Championship Longshots 2024

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With additional each-way places available from most bookies, the scope for grabbing a piece of the each-way action with a 3-figure chance this week is as good as ever, and there’s plenty of value to be found if you dig deep enough into the market at Valhalla.

Last year’s US PGA Championship was yet another case in point that longer-priced players can place at the Majors. Whilst the top 3 spots were secured by three fancied players in the shape of Brooks Koepka, Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland, the 3-way tie for 4th between Bryson DeChambeau, Cam Davis and Kurt Kitayama at 110/1, 160/1 and 200/1 respectively was a happy hunting ground for each-way punters. Sepp Straka also tied for 7th at a massive 400/1 which given the extended place terms on offer meant for a bumper payout for those who backed the Austrian.

And you don’t need to go far back for further evidence. Who’ll forget Mito Pereira’s attempt to win his maiden Major title at Southern Hills in 2022, which looked very good right up until the 72nd hole? The Chilean was priced up at 200/1 with some firms pre-event.

The year before was no different either. Phil Mickelson was available at a whopping 250/1 with some bookies before capturing his second Wanamaker Trophy and 6th Major title in total. In addition to Lefty, 600/1 shots Padraig Harrington and Harry Higgs both finished in a tie for 4th place in 2021, rewarding each-way backers with a huge return.

For full background on the course and PGA Championship trends read Steve Bamford’s in-depth preview here. Steve also picks out 4 players who he thinks can win this year’s title, however if you like a small dabble on 3-figure chances who might just make the frame then you’re in the right place.

As ever, the each-way terms available from some bookmakers this week make for an interesting dilemma – do you stick rigidly to fairly standard each-way terms and grab a top price on an outsider, or do you accept a reduced price in exchange for more favourable each-way terms?

Personally I’ve opted to take my 3 selections using Betfred’s 10 places each way market where there’s a strong balance of odds and each-way terms but, as ever, do check the odds of the key bookmakers before placing your bet to suit yourself. For those of you new to Betfred, their new customer offer is detailed below:

✅ Bet £10 Get £50 in bonuses for new customers using code WELCOME50 and this qualifying link
✅ For further details read our Betfred promo code page
✅ Odds compiler takes a different view of many events meaning value can be found
✅ Flexible each-way terms available with 5, 7, 8 and 10 place options to choose from

Betfred New Customer Offer: New customers only. Register (excl. 13/04/24) with WELCOME50. First bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get Free Bets: £20 In-Play, £20 Acca & 50 x £0.20 (£10) Free Spins on Fishin’ Frenzy within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility & payment exclusions apply. Full T&Cs apply. #Ad

My selections are as follows:

Alexander Noren 1pt EW 125/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Betfred

The sheer consistency that Alex Noren has shown for months now makes him a danger pretty much every time he tees it up, and building on his recent efforts with a strong performance in a Major isn’t out of the question.

You have to go all the way back to the Fortinet Championship in September to find the last time that the Swede had an enforced weekend off, and in those 16 events since he’s finished 2nd at the Bermuda Championship, 3rd at both the Shriners Open and more recently at the CJ Cup Bryon Nelson, and he’s currently on run of 7 straight top-25 finishes.

Of course with that level of consistency comes some impressive statistics as the 10-time DP World Tour winner seeks out his breakthrough PGA Tour title. 35th for SG Off the Tee, 8th for SG Tee to Green and 6th SG Around the Green are all positive metrics for this week’s task, as are 6th for GIR and 1st for Scrambling for the 2024 season to date.

22nd back in 2020 is Noren’s best finish at the PGA Championship, although 6th at the Open Championship back in 2017 does show that he can feature at the business end of Majors. His 3 most recent DP World Tour wins though do suggest that he can compete against higher class opposition with his 2016 Nedbank win coming in the Tour’s Final Series, his 2017 win coming at Wentworth in the Tour’s flagship event, and his 2018 win at Le Golf National coming at Rolex Series level.

As with all three of my picks, whether Noren can muster the kind of magical 4 rounds required to actually go and win this week remains to be seen, but with the each-way terms on offer combined with healthy odds I’m happy to take a chance to find out.

✅ Bet £10 Get £50 in bonuses for new customers using code WELCOME50 and this qualifying link
✅ For further details read our Betfred promo code page
✅ Odds compiler takes a different view of many events meaning value can be found
✅ Flexible each-way terms available with 5, 7, 8 and 10 place options to choose from

Betfred New Customer Offer: New customers only. Register (excl. 13/04/24) with WELCOME50. First bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get Free Bets: £20 In-Play, £20 Acca & 50 x £0.20 (£10) Free Spins on Fishin’ Frenzy within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility & payment exclusions apply. Full T&Cs apply. #Ad

Nicolai Hojgaard 1pt EW 125/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Coming into this week off the back of raw form of MC/MC may put a few punters off backing the hugely talented Nicolai Hojgaard, but I beg to differ on a Valhalla course that I think plays to his key strengths.

In fairness, the Dane could have done without the Corales Championship immediately after a strong performance at Augusta National and a weekend off wasn’t the biggest shock in the world. Missing the weekend alongside twin Rasmus at the Zurich Classic isn’t that much of a crime either and the 23 year-old has had time since to rest, recuperate and prepare for his latest Major Championship start as he looks to build on progressive Majors form of 53/50/23/16.

It’s worth delving into that Masters effort a little more as Nicolai was in contention for three rounds, sitting 3rd, 4th and 6th on the leaderboard at the end of each of the first three days. Sunday’s 76 was disappointing not only in that he dropped right off the pace, but in that he also missed out on an automatic invite back to have another stab at the Green Jacket next year by a single stroke. That shouldn’t matter massively though as Nicolai has more than enough about him to stay inside the OWGR top 50 by the end of the year, which is a means to the same end.
Averaging nigh on 308 yards with his drives so far in 2024, which is good enough for 21st place on the PGA Tour, Hojgaard has the power to tackle this par 71 which stretches to over 7,600 yards from its tips. 20th for SG Off the Tee and 5th for Total Driving, which is a combination for power and accuracy, completes the argument for his skillset matching the demands that Valhalla possesses from off the tee.

Winning last year’s DP World Tour Championship and fending off the best that the European circuit could throw at him will have built on the confidence that a positive Ryder Cup performance instilled in him when it comes to elite level performances, and further progress in his Majors record this week could see him reward each-way punters at a tasty 3-figure price.

✅ Bet £10 Get £50 in bonuses for new customers using code WELCOME50 and this qualifying link
✅ For further details read our Betfred promo code page
✅ Odds compiler takes a different view of many events meaning value can be found
✅ Flexible each-way terms available with 5, 7, 8 and 10 place options to choose from

Betfred New Customer Offer: New customers only. Register (excl. 13/04/24) with WELCOME50. First bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get Free Bets: £20 In-Play, £20 Acca & 50 x £0.20 (£10) Free Spins on Fishin’ Frenzy within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility & payment exclusions apply. Full T&Cs apply. #Ad

Jake Knapp 1pt EW 150/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Of the really long prices, both Thorbjorn Olesen and Matt Wallace appealed to certain degrees this week, with the former shooting a flawless 10-under to catapult himself up the Myrtle Beach leaderboard on Sunday and the latter increasingly pleased with the direction that his game is heading of late.

I wouldn’t put anyone off a speculative punt on either Europeans, however I’ll reserve my third and final spot for Jake Knapp who, like Hojgaard above, has the raw firepower to contend on this kind of track in soft conditions.

At 23rd on Tour for Driving Distance, Knapp and Nicolai are virtually inseparable in terms of their power from off the tee and that prowess shone through at the Mexico Open in February where he secured his maiden victory in fine style. 2nd for DD that week was complimented by sufficiently good accuracy to rank 7th for Total Driving overall as he beat up a relatively weak field.

Of course the Californian will need to prove that he can put it all together against the world’s best if he’s going to get into a position to produce a return this week, however 3rd at Torrey Pines back in January against a decent field on the lengthy South Course adds some good encouragement.

8th at the Byron Nelson the week before last could have been a second victory save for a flat Sunday performance, and you can forgive him a tailed off effort last week at Quail Hollow in the immediate aftermath of that effort. A new week presents a new opportunity for the 29 year-old to build on his Majors debut last month at Augusta where he made the cut.

✅ Bet £10 Get £50 in bonuses for new customers using code WELCOME50 and this qualifying link
✅ For further details read our Betfred promo code page
✅ Odds compiler takes a different view of many events meaning value can be found
✅ Flexible each-way terms available with 5, 7, 8 and 10 place options to choose from

Betfred New Customer Offer: New customers only. Register (excl. 13/04/24) with WELCOME50. First bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get Free Bets: £20 In-Play, £20 Acca & 50 x £0.20 (£10) Free Spins on Fishin’ Frenzy within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility & payment exclusions apply. Full T&Cs apply. #Ad

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:55BST 13.5.24 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.