Whilst I didn’t have a bean on him last week, it was great to see Alex Levy exorcise the demons of last year’s play-off defeat at the Porsche European Open where he missed a tiddler to take the title. His attitude to golf and aggressive play would be an asset to the Ryder Cup team in his homeland and I for one hope that he keeps his foot to the floor this season and makes the team, albeit not this week! As much as I like the Frenchman – particularly when he’s playing in China – I can’t back him here at a very best price of 12/1. In the start immediately following a European Tour victory, Levy has recorded finishes of 24/13/MC/51 over his career and he has the added burden of defending his title here this week. Of course he may overcome those pressures and lift himself again here, however he’s a reluctant leave for me this week.

One player who undoubtedly caught the eye last week, not least in that he led from day 1 before eventually finishing runner-up to Levy, was the precocious talent that is Alvaro Quiros. The long-hitting Spaniard spent some time in the commentary booth last week and it was interesting to hear him talk about a change of approach to his game, having returned to former coach Jose Rivero, with a focus very much on enjoying the game as he used to as a youngster as opposed to stressing too much about the technicalities of it all. Rivero had suggested that Quiros would soon be close to contending once again on the European Tour and the 7-time European Tour winner almost jumped the gun in Morocco with some excellent play from tee-to-green over the first three days in particular. 9th for Driving Accuracy and 2nd for GIR is a great combination when you can hit the ball as far as the 35 year-old and despite a wobble on Sunday, he came back well towards the end to secure 2nd place overall.

Last year’s win at the Rocco Forte Open came after a horrible run of form had been stopped in its tracks with a much-improved 22nd place finish in Portugal and despite still being unfancied (he won at 150/1) he opened with rounds of 63/64 to set up his first victory since 2011. Statistically you’ll struggle to justify him this week given how many missed cuts he’s been producing in the recent past, however his performance resonated with me having backed him in 2011 when he won the Dubai World Championship as it was known at the time. Back then I’d noted that the Spaniard had finished 7th the week before on what’s essentially an unsuitable track for him at the Hong Kong Open before beating a high-class field at the Earth Course and last week’s effort on a more stringent test in Morocco feels similar to me. If he’s showing good form on a track that doesn’t necessarily play to his strengths then put him on a course like this that should reward long, aggressive driving then he could well run out winner once again.

With confidence returning to his game and some good memories of China to fall back upon having recorded 4 top-10 finishes in the country over the years, at the price on offer – which of course has been reduced from last week – I’m more than happy to take a chance on him here. RESULT: T45

A pair of bombers to back up my headline selection in the shape of Ryan Fox and Nicolas Colsaerts. Aside from a limited set of recorded drives from Harold Varner III on last year’s European Tour, Ryan Fox led the Driving Distance charts for the full season at in incredible 318.1 yard average over 86 rounds and he’s the type of player who can make hay on the short par-4s and long par-5s here that others will have to lay up to. With 2 wins on the Australasian Tour and 2 more on the Challenge Tour, it’s only a matter of time before the Kiwi breaks through at European Tour level and an amenable track such as this presents as good an opportunity as any in my view. Finishes of 6th, 4th and 4th in consecutive weeks last year at the Open de France, Irish Open and Scottish Open respectively elevated the 31 year-old into the OWGR top-100 for the first time in his career and although he couldn’t maintain that level, there have been positive signs of more to come in 2018. 4th at the Rebel Sports Masters on the Australasian Tour kicked off his campaign and 3rd behind Shubhankar Sharma at the Maybank Championship in February ranks as his best effort at this level to date. 12th last week in Morocco was noteworthy given the style of track there and I suspect that his third look at Topwin G&CC will produce a massive improvement over his previous efforts of 63/MC which have helped keep a lid on his price here this week. RESULT: T37

Andrew Landry’s win over on the PGA Tour last week gave us all a timely reminder of the impact that fatherhood can have on a player’s game and Nicolas Colsaerts is another who’s been changing a lot of nappies recently after the birth of his baby boy in February. Understandably his schedule has been sparse since, however he’s back to playing golf full-time now and a 28th place finish in Spain showed some promise before he bowed out before the weekend in Morocco. A return to China and an event where he secured his first European Tour victory may well help put him back on the right track and the fact that this is a different venue to his success in 2011 does nothing to put me off as he seeks to rediscover the form that saw him finish 3rd at the BMW PGA Championship and 2nd behind Justin Rose in Turkey last year, both of which were far stronger events than this. We all know about the Belgian’s prodigious length from off the tee and despite an understandably slow start to 2018 as he’s focussed on family matters, he still ranks 10th on Tour for Greens Under Regulation which is an interesting angle to study in these risk/reward tests. 15th here at Topwin G&CC in 2016 doesn’t tell the whole story as he was 3rd going into the final day before treading water on the Sunday and he was inside the top-20 here last season going into Sunday which suggests to me that the course suits his eye – indeed rounds of 65, 66 and 67 over those two efforts are encouraging, particularly if he can find some form with the putter. RESULT: MC

A couple of punts to finish on a pair of outsiders who could surprise this week. First up Lucas Herbert whose price must be being based on a pair of missed cuts in his most recent starts in Oman and New Zealand as opposed to the 5 top-8 finishes he racked up in 6 starts immediately prior to that blip in form. The long-hitting Australian ranks 11th (316.7 yards average) on the Driving Distance charts for the European Tour season to date and these risk/reward type setups are ideal for him to play aggressive golf and take a shy at the greens on the reachable par 4s and par 5s – indeed he ranks 9th on the European Tour for Greens Under Regulation so is clearly happy to take a chance when required with a fair level of success. The 22 year-old also ranks 2nd on the European Tour for birdie average – from a limited number of starts, granted – and after 6 weeks off gets another crack at the European Tour courtesy of his OWGR ranking as he seeks to earn his card having plied his trade predominantly on the Australasian PGA Tour thus far. Herbert’s form since November suggests that he’s more than capable of stepping up to this level permanently with 2nd at the NSW Open, 6th from a great position at the Australian Open, 7th at the Australian PGA, 8th behind Sergio Garcia at the Singapore Open and 3rd at the Super 6 having finished 2nd after the strokeplay element. RESULT: MC

Finally I’m also taking a chance on Rak Cho who gets another start on the European Tour, this time courtesy of an invite having previously gained sporadic starts as a result of winning last year’s China Tour Order of Merit. There are few here with more experience playing in China than the South Korean whose 2 professional wins both came in the country and last year’s 24th place finish here at Topwin G&CC showed some promise having previously finished 3rd on this track at the Pingan Bank Open on the China Tour back in 2016. Still a relative unknown in the world of professional golf and arriving here off the back of a missed cut in Morocco has kept a lid on his price, however a 12th place finish in Spain showed a lot of promise with sparkling rounds of 64 and 65 flanked by a pair of 73s. Clearly far from the finished article and a streaky scorer, his aggressive style may well see him record his best finish on the European Tour this week on a course that plays to strengths and that he has solid form upon. 81.9% GIR in Spain was beaten by just 3 players, one of whom was Jon Rahm, and I’m happy to take a punt on the 25 year-old here. RESULT: MC