It was fantastic to see Rickie Fowler capture his sixth PGA Tour victory and first for over 4 years at Detroit Golf Club for this column at 14/1. Despite the skinny price, some wins simply mean more and Rickie Fowler is a great professional who looks like he’s both Ryder Cup and London-bound (watch out for him in the capital this week with JT and Jordan Spieth for company).
The John Deere Classic is never the strongest field-wise, yet the event is still worth a full 500 FedEx Cup points to the winner and comes with the standard 2-year PGA Tour exemption so it’s a prize well worth taking. Played at the low-scoring TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois, the real skill is to work through which players have the motivation and skill-sets required to produce a birdie barrage around the accommodating D.A.Weibring, Par 71 design. Competition here for a potentially life-changing win is always fierce and the tournament always provokes keen interest for those brought up in America’s Midwest.
Before we go into the detail surrounding the John Deere Classic, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,200 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
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Course Guide: TPC Deere Run is a drag-strip of a Par 71 where you’d better make birdies or pack your bags come Friday evening.
Jordan Spieth, Brian Harman, Ryan Moore and J.T. Poston all managed an eagle or 3 (always a bonus) and 21/22 birdies respectively when winning here, whilst Lucas Glover, Dylan Frittelli, Michael Kim, Bryson DeChambeau, Zach Johnson and Spieth again made 24, 22, 30, 24, 24 and 25 birdies respectively when enjoying their successes since 2012. A minimum 1-in-3 birdie or better conversion is traditionally required to get the job done at the John Deere Classic, with the course giving chances to both the shortest and longest players. It’s also abundantly clear that the tournament eventually boils down to a putting contest where a sub-1.7 Putts per GIR performance is required if a player wants to be in the Sunday afternoon mix.
TPC Deere Run, Silvis, Illinois: Designer: D.A. Weibring 1999, with PGA Tour Design renovation 2006/07; Course Type: Parkland, Resort, Short; Par: 71; Length: 7,289 yards; Number of Holes with Water In-Play: 3; Fairways: Southshore Bentgrass; Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass with Fine Fescue 4″; Greens: 5,500 sq.ft average featuring L-93 Bentgrass; Stimpmeter: 12ft; Course Scoring Average 2012: 69.55 (-1.45), Difficulty Rank 42 of 49 courses. 2013: 69.40 (-1.60), Difficulty Rank 36 of 43 courses. 2014: 69.76 (-1.26), Rank 42 of 48 courses. 2015: 69.65 (-1.35), Rank 43 of 52 courses. 2016: 69.90 (-1.10), Rank 39 of 50 courses. 2017: 69.75 (-1.25), Rank 38 of 50 courses. 2018: 69.38 (-1.62), Rank 46 of 51 courses. 2019: 69.51 (-1.49), Rank 35 of 49 courses. 2021: 69.51 (-1.49), Rank 41 of 51 courses. 2022: 69.88 (1.12), Rank 34 of 50 courses.
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for TPC Deere Run and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:
Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
Riviera: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26 350:28.
TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes other D.A. Weibring designs include:
TPC Four Seasons – AT&T Byron Nelson till 2017
Course Overview: TPC Deere Run is a course that’s extremely scoreable for those players who love to manage their way strategically around a golf course rather than dominate it. With fairways that are easy to hit and receptive 6,000 sq.ft average sized Bentgrass green complexes to aim at, scoring is correspondingly low. Deere Run is a course that offers up opportunities for bombers like Jhonattan Vegas, Patrick Rodgers, Bryson DeChambeau and in 2022 Chris Gotterup, Callum Tarren plus Cam Davis. Conversely plotters like Zach Johnson, Ryan Moore and J.T Poston have also succeeded. The key this week will ultimately be a hot putter and minimising bogeys which is always the case on resort-level scoring tests.
Despite playing slightly tougher in 2014, 11 holes still played under par across the tournament, whilst 2015 saw 13 holes. Since then a minimum of 11 holes all played under par – incredible stuff when you think about it. Post-cut scoring increases slightly with more difficult pin positions and those with prior knowledge of this event know where those weekend holes will be cut and, more importantly, where to position off the tee to access them. Saying that both Sean O’Hair (2005) and Dylan Frittelli (2019) won this on course debut.
TPC Deere Run is a track that rewards consistency as bogeys in any great volume will cost a player any chance of victory. Fairways are wide for the length of course and 2 of the par-5s (2nd and 17th) are reachable for the whole field. As you’d expect, green complexes run pure and aren’t overly taxing. The tournament tends to be won by excellent putters who can find enough greens and hit the ball close enough to the pin so as to create enough birdie chances. Saying that ball-striker extraordinaire Bryson DeChambeau won this in 2017, entering the tournament ranked 195th in Strokes Gained Putting, whilst you would also place Lucas Glover in the ball-striker over short game specialist, so it’s as long as it’s short, as you would expect at a resort-scoring test.
Another angle to explore this week is to find players who are comfortable on par-3s as TPC Deere Run’s set of short holes yields plenty of birdies each and every renewal.
John Deere Classic Winners: 2022: J.T. Poston (-21); 2021: Lucas Glover (-19); 2019: Dylan Frittelli (-21); 2018: Michael Kim (-27); 2017: Bryson DeChambeau (-18); 2016: Ryan Moore (-22); 2015: Jordan Spieth (-20); 2014: Brian Harman (-22); 2013: Jordan Spieth (-19); 2012: Zach Johnson (-20); 2011: Steve Stricker (-22); 2010: Steve Stricker (-26).
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Denny McCarthy, Adam Hadwin, Russell Henley, Keith Mitchell, Chez Reavie, Lucas Glover, Eric Cole, Sam Ryder, Luke List and Adam Schenk.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
John Deere Classic Winning Prices: 2022: Poston 50/1; 2021: Glover 55/1; 2019: Frittelli 90/1; 2018: Michael Kim 300/1; 2017: DeChambeau 50/1; 2016: Moore 25/1; 2015: Spieth 4/1; 2014: Harman 125/1; 2013: Spieth 40/1; 2012: Zach Johnson 12/1; 2011: Stricker 7/1; 2010: Stricker 16/1. Past 8 Renewals Average: 87/1, Overall Average: 65/1.
For a full summary of winner’s odds on the PGA Tour since 2010 click here.
Historical Weather:
2022: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 92. Wind SW 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy. High of 85. Wind NW 5-10 mph. Due to inclement weather, play was suspended from 10:29 a.m. to 11:45 a.m. CT (1 hour, 16 minutes). Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 85. Wind SSE 5-10 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 87. Wind SE 7-14 mph.
2021: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 74. Wind NNE 6-12 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy. High of 77. Wind SE 5-10 mph. Saturday: Cloudy, with light showers throughout the day. High of 70. Wind E 7-14 mph. Sunday: Rain throughout the day. High of 72. Wind NE 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph.
2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 83. Wind N 8-15 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 87. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 90. Wind SW 6-12 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 92. Wind S/SSW 6-12 mph.
2018: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 91. Wind S 10-15 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy, with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High of 87. Wind SE 5-10 mph. Due to inclement weather, round two was suspended from 5:49 p.m. until 6:40 p.m. Due to additional storms, play was suspended for the day at 7:26 p.m. Saturday: Due to expected inclement weather in the afternoon, third-round tee times took place from 9:20 a.m. and 11:30 a.m. in threesomes off tee Nos. 1 and 10. Due to a dangerous weather situation, round three was suspended from 10:38 a.m. until 1:11 p.m. Play was again suspended at 5:53 p.m. and resumed at 7:12 p.m. Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High of 88. W SSE 4-8 mph.
2017: Thursday: Partly sunny with a high of 83. Wind WNW 8-15 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy with a high of 77. Wind NW 7-12 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny with a high of 83. Wind WSW 5-10 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high of 83. Wind NE 8-15 mph.
2016: Thursday: Overcast, with afternoon thunderstorms. Friday: High of 82. Wind NNW at 8-15 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy, becoming partly cloudy with a high of 82. Wind NW at 8-15 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 82. Wind W at 5-10 mph.
2015: Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 75. Winds variable at 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 81. Wind SE at 8-15 mph. Saturday: Overcast, with rain and lightning in the morning. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. High of 81. Wind SE at 6-12 mph. Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high of 87. Wind SE at 6-12 mph.
Forecast Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Silvis, Illinois, is here.
I’d expect another birdiefest here in tractor country with this week’s weather forecast looking just fine to deliver their wish. Wind won’t be a factor. The course had 36mm (1.4 inches) of rain deposited on it from Wednesday through to Sunday just gone, with a 70% chance of further rain on Pro-Am Wednesday. Rain could also feature on Sunday, so expect cut in the fairways at the very least come Thursday. So with a course that’s lush enough and temperatures that will be in the 23-29 degree Celsius (73-84 Fahrenheit) vicinity throughout, birdies will be the key here this week.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the AT&T Byron Nelson / Soudal Open which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Ludvig Aberg; 2) Peter Kuest; 3) Ryan Palmer; 4) Keith Mitchell / Brent Grant; 6) Kevin Yu; 7) Ross Steelman; 8) Trevor Cone; 9) Akshay Bhatia / Vince Whaley; 11) Garrick Higgo; 12) Byeong Hun An; 13) Doug Ghim; 14) Callum Tarren; 15) S.H. Kim; 16) Sam Stevens; 17) Beau Hossler / Sepp Straka / Cameron Young; 20) Kevin Chappell; 21) M.J. Daffue; 22) Lucas Glover / Matthew NeSmith; 24) Alex Smalley / Kevin Tway.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Russell Henley; 2) Ryan Palmer; 3) Adam Schenk; 4) Alex Smalley; 5) Mark Hubbard; 6) Adam Hadwin; 7) Doug Ghim; 8) Chez Reavie; 9) Kevin Streelman; 10) Denny McCarthy; 11) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Patton Kizzire / Nick Taylor; 14) Eric Cole; 15) Chris Kirk / Greyson Sigg; 17) Cameron Champ / Lucas Glover / Nate Lashley; 20) Ryan Armour / Emiliano Grillo; 22) Carson Young; 23) Luke List; 24) Stephan Jaeger; 25) Charley Hoffman / Justin Lower.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Jonathan Byrd; 2) Ludvig Aberg; 3) Ricky Barnes; 4) Derek Ernst; 5) Gordon Sargent; 6) Kevin Yu; 7) Eric Cole; 8) Byeong Hun An / Troy Merritt / Matthias Schwab; 11) Sung Kang; 12) Aaron Baddeley / Ryan Gerard; 14) Patrick Rodgers; 15) Chad Collins; 16) Adam Long; 17) Wesley Bryan; 18) Davis Thompson; 19) S.H. Kim; 20) Peter Malnati / Taylor Montgomery; 22) Doug Ghim; 23) Stephan Jaeger; 24) Adam Hadwin / Harry Higgs / Greyson Sigg.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Ryan Palmer; 2) Russell Henley; 3) Ludvig Aberg; 4) Doug Ghim; 5) Alex Smalley; 6) Byeong Hun An; 7) Sepp Straka; 8) Stephan Jaeger; 9) Eric Cole / Peter Kuest; 11) Callum Tarren; 12) Kevin Yu; 13) Greyson Sigg; 14) Kevin Chappell / Adam Hadwin / Chris Kirk / Kevin Streelman / Cameron Young; 19) Akshay Bhatia / Lucas Glover / Chez Reavie; 22) Denny McCarthy; 23) Joseph Bramlett / Cameron Champ / Davis Thompson.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Denny McCarthy; 2) Brian Gay; 3) Satoshi Kodaira; 4) Sung Kang; 5) Seung-yul Noh; 6) Jonas Blixt; 7) Chez Reavie / Carson Young; 9) Peter Kuest; 10) Peter Malnati; 11) Aaron Baddeley / Nick Hardy / Grayson Murray; 14) Justin Lower; 15) Eric Cole / Andrew Landry / Nick Taylor; 18) Taylor Montgomery / Augusto Nunez; 20) Keith Mitchell; 21) Emiliano Grillo; 22) Harry Higgs / J.T. Poston / Robby Shelton; 25) Jonathan Byrd / Adam Long / Kevin Roy.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Doug Ghim; 2) Denny McCarthy; 3) Russell Henley; 4) Eric Cole; 5) Ludvig Aberg; 6) Peter Kuest; 7) Ryan Palmer; 8) Chez Reavie; 9) Sepp Straka; 10) Satoshi Kodaira / Alex Smalley; 12) Jonathan Byrd; 13) Byeong Hun An / Adam Hadwin; 15) Kevin Streelman; 16) Sung Kang / Patrick Rodgers / Carson Young; 19) Callum Tarren; 20) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Chesson Hadley / Dylan Wu; 23) Emiliano Grillo / Stephan Jaeger / Adam Schenk.
For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at TPC Deere Run since 2019 click here.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the John Deere Classic winners here at TPC Deere Run since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this low scoring test:
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
2022, J.T. Poston (-21). SG Off the Tee: 15th, SG Approach: 10th, SG Around the Green: 1st, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 31st.
2021, Lucas Glover (-19). SG Off the Tee: 29th, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 17th, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 19th.
2019, Dylan Frittelli (-21). SG Off the Tee: 10th, SG Approach: 60th, SG Around the Green: 2nd, SG Tee to Green: 15th, SG Putting: 2nd.
2018, Michael Kim (-27). SG Off the Tee: 34th, SG Approach: 11th, SG Around the Green: 47th, SG Tee to Green: 16th, SG Putting: 1st.
2017, Bryson DeChambeau (-18). SG Off the Tee: 17th, SG Approach: 27th, SG Around the Green: 38th, SG Tee to Green: 18th, SG Putting: 2nd.
2016, Ryan Moore (-22). SG Off the Tee: 23rd, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 32nd, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 8th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
SG Off the Tee: 21st, SG Approach: 19th, SG Around the Green: 13th, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 10th.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winners of the John Deere Classic back to 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this low scoring test:
2022, J.T. Poston (-21). 295 yards (48th), 73.2% fairways (12th), 83.3% greens in regulation (4th), 40’0″ proximity to hole (67th), 83.3 % scrambling (3rd), 1.70 putts per GIR (27th).
2021, Lucas Glover (-19). 293 yards (41st), 73.2% fairways (24th), 77.8% greens in regulation (15th), 29’2″ proximity to hole (9th), 81.5 % scrambling (5th), 1.66 putts per GIR (10th).
2019, Dylan Frittelli (-21). 314 yards (32nd), 78.6% fairways (7th), 77.8% greens in regulation (10th), 31’9″ proximity to hole (22nd), 93.8% scrambling (1st), 1.70 putts per GIR (22nd).
2018, Michael Kim (-27). 295 yards (27th), 82.1% fairways (2nd), 83.3% greens in regulation (3rd), 24’11” proximity to hole (1st), 83.3% scrambling (1st), 1.53 putts per GIR (1st).
2017, Bryson DeChambeau (-17). 302 yards (21st), 75.0% fairways (32nd), 79.2% greens in regulation (11th), proximity to hole 30’7″ (13th), 66.7 % scrambling (29th), 1.65 putts per GIR (10th).
2016, Ryan Moore (-22). 289 yards (34th), 82.1% fairways (12th), 83.3% greens in regulation (1st), proximity to hole 27’0″ (2nd), 91.1 % scrambling (1st), 1.67 putts per GIR (6th).
2015, Jordan Spieth (-20). 284 yards (17th), 69.6% fairways (60th), 72.2% greens in regulation (33rd), proximity to hole 28’9″ (16th), 65.0 % scrambling (32nd), 1.54 putts per GIR (1st).
2014, Brian Harman (-22). 303 yards (18th), 80.4% fairways (8th), 87.5% greens in regulation (1st), proximity to hole 23’3″ (2nd), 66.7 % scrambling (29th), 1.70 putts per GIR (31st).
2013, Jordan Spieth (-19). 318 yards (14th), 76.8% fairways (19th), 72.2% greens in regulation (34th), proximity to hole 34’1″ (56th), 70.0% scrambling (18th), 1.62 putts per GIR (8th).
2012, Zach Johnson (-20). 293 yards (47th), 73.2% fairways (34th), 75.0% greens in regulation (26th), proximity to hole 29’7″ (16th), 77.8% scrambling (2nd), 1.61 putts per GIR (4th).
2011, Steve Sticker (-22). 318 yards (12th), 64.3% fairways (62nd), 73.6% greens in regulation (33rd), proximity to hole 30’2″ (15th), 78.9% scrambling (2nd), 1.55 putts per GIR (1st).
2010, Steve Stricker (-26). 292 yards (32nd), 73.2% fairways (34th), 80.6% greens in regulation (11th), proximity to hole 26’5″ (5th), 64.3% scrambling (24th), 1.53 putts per GIR (1st).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 29th, Driving Accuracy: 26th, Greens in Regulation: 15th, Proximity to Hole: 19th, Scrambling: 12th, Putting Average 10th.
Let’s take a view from players as to how TPC Deere Run sets up and what skill sets the course favours:
J.T. Poston (2022): “This course right now, the weather is perfect. The course is in great shape. Guys are going to make a lot of birdies. I wouldn’t be surprised if whoever is kind of right there in the mix tomorrow shoots 10-, 12-, 13-under on the weekend. I think it’s very possible. I know I need to keep the pedal down and try and match that.”
“On the par-5 Number 2, yeah, luckily it was a good number with the wind. I knew I could hit a 3-wood as much as I wanted and it wasn’t going to be too much. It just came out great. Hit another tight draw down there and landed in a perfect spot and had 20 feet down the hill. ”
Lucas Glover (2021): “I wedged it very nice today and putted well, which you have to do here, because you get a lot of opportunities, and distance control is pretty important, and I did a good job of that today and then putted nice. I just like Deere Run. It’s in perfect shape for starters. It’s a fun golf course, and you know barring some crazy conditions, you’re going to get a lot of opportunities. If you’re putting okay you’re going to make some birdies, which is always a good feeling.
Confidence wise, I had a good Sunday last week. I didn’t play well Friday, Saturday, but I had a good Sunday and brought some stuff here from Sunday that were good. Yesterday was a little scrappy, but today everything kind of clicked.”
Dylan Frittelli (2019): “Yeah, that’s huge. I’d obviously won on The European Tour, but my exemption was running out at the end of this year, so I was looking at, if I don’t keep my card here on the U.S. tour, I have to go to Korn Ferry Tour School and play the Playoffs there, and try and get my card back. Then I’m giving up three or four weeks to play in Europe where I can try to keep a card. All this stuff has been going through my mind the last four to eight weeks, and the only thing is you can’t control that stuff. You just have to play golf and try to put it in the background. Last week and the previous week, I played great but let it affect me, and thankfully it weekend I managed to knuckle down and have a really clear mind-set and execute on pretty much every shot on the weekend.”
Michael Kim (2018): You know, I’ve been really comfortable on the course the last couple years, and if you look at kind of the guys that have done well here going back, guys like Steve Stricker, Zach Johnson, Jordan Spieth, you know, guys that don’t necessarily bomb the ball, but with good wedge game and putting they can do good out here. So kind of along that same mould. Greens are great. They’re soft, they’re rolling true, and they’re bent greens, so you just got to hit it on your line.”
Bryson DeChambeau (2017): “Yeah, you got to be hitting your wedges really close. If you can do that all week, you’ll be just fine. If you can make pars on the tough par-3s and hit it on the fairway, like on 15 every day, land it on the green, two-putt, make your par, get out of there, I think you have a very good chance of playing well here. I have always liked short par 4s. My favourite is No. 9 at Cypress. It’s definitely a cool little short par-4; drivable. A lot of risk/reward in it. I think D.A.’s (Weibring) done a great job with 14, as well as 17. Definitely risk/reward holes that if you execute shots well you’re going to get rewarded. That’s the epitome of golf, right? Executing a shot, having it end up beautifully, even though sometimes you can get a bad break, right? So you could hit a beautiful shot on 14 and get absolutely into the worst place possible. Like if you pull it just a little bit on 14 and get on the down slope in the rough to the short left pin you’re toast. You’ve got to know where to miss it on those holes. I think he’s designed it very, very well.”
Ryan Moore (2016): “It’s a course I’ve really grown to like over the years. I played it early in my career, and I took a few years kind of off in the middle, and when I came back and started playing it again, I don’t know, I appreciated it more for some reason or another. Maybe I’ve learned over the years the type of golf courses that are good for me and that set up well for me, and this is definitely one of them. The golf course has enough angles, and the holes that you can force it down there a little bit farther, they’re pretty difficult tee shots, so guys that hit it significantly farther than me don’t have a huge advantage on a golf course like this.
Yeah, I think that’s part of the success. I enjoy the course. I like bent greens a lot. These are honestly some of the best we putt on every single year, and they’re probably the best I’ve ever seen them this year. They’re fantastic.”
Zach Johnson: “I think starting on 14, you’ve got often times a reachable par 4, a birdie hole, but a hole that if you’re just a little bit off, a bogey hole. 15 is a really good par 4. Obviously 16 assuming it’s one of the signature holes here if not the signature hole, great little par 3. A birdieable, maybe even eagle hole on 17, and then a brutal but fair 18th hole with a lot of opportunity and I would say treachery around the corner. It’s just because of the character of the last five holes here, I think. I don’t want to equate it to another golf course, but I look at I’m not saying we’re going to have seven straight birdies to finish, but if you look at TPC River Highlands, it’s kind of got that sort of ingredient, where you have a reachable par 5, you’ve got a short par 4, a par 3, a lot of water, and just holes that you can either go really, really low or it can really bite you, and I think that’s why you see a little bit of movement and guys just kind of bunching up at the end.”
Steve Stricker: “Winning score? Depends on the weather, I guess. I mean, there’s just a lot of good birdie opportunities out there, par-5s, some of them are reachable. For everybody, two of them are reachable, two out of the three. And there’s a lot of short irons in your hand where you can make some birdies. And then the holes you’ve got to pay attention on, you make your pars and move on. But yeah, it’ll be pushing that 20 number, I’m sure. The greens are pure.”
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the winners of the John Deere Classic since 2010:
Shots From the Lead: Below are the John Deere Classic winners since 2010 and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
5 – Zach Johnson.
3 – Lucas Glover, Matt Kuchar, Ryan Moore.
2 – Jason Dufner, Chris Kirk, Martin Laird, K.H. Lee, Troy Merritt, Brandt Snedeker.
1 – Jonathan Byrd, Cameron Champ, Derek Ernst, Dylan Frittelli, Emiliano Grillo, Bill Haas, Jim Herman, Charley Hoffman, Michael Kim, Russell Knox, David Lingmerth, Ben Martin, Trey Mullinax, Sean O’Hair, J.T. Poston, Seamus Power, Chez Reavie, Kevin Streelman, Brendon Todd, Nick Watney.
Recent winning totals of -16, -20, -26, -22, -20, -19, -22, -20, -22, -18, -27, -21, -19 and -21 highlight that the key to success in Illinois is two-fold: make copious amounts of birdies and minimise dropped shots. It’s not rocket science, but as both 2018 and 2019 highlighted, picking the winner here is not always easy. Picking out Michael Kim in 2018 at 300/1 with incoming form of MC/MC/MC highlights the volatility we are dealing with at the John Deere Classic with field quality falling year-on-year.
2019 saw Dylan Frittelli capture his maiden PGA Tour victory here at 90/1. His form in read 59-MC-46-46, hardly stellar stuff, but you could have picked him on the basis he had been 9th after 54 holes the week before at the 3M Open, before shooting a Sunday +2/73 and collapsing 37 spots. Fact is this is resort scoring golf and freak results happen as a regular matter of course.
Dig a little deeper and there might be a trend worth pursuing, but it’s a little counterintuitive at a birdiefest! Taking defending champion J.T. Poston, Lucas Glover, plus Bryson DeChambeau, Ryan Moore, Jordan Spieth and Brian Harman – looking at Bogey Avoidance – they entered the tournament with ranks of 9th (Spieth 2013), 27th (Harman), 3rd (Spieth 2015), 90th (Moore 2016), 139th (DeChambeau 2017, 97th (Glover 2021) and 62nd (Poston 2023). Bryson’s number is certainly an outlier, where the season-long number was based upon a terrible start to 2017 where he’d missed 12 cuts with a new putting style. However you can see the requirement for players to be balanced in being able to attack but keep the card clean on tough par-4s like the 9th, 15th, and certainly the 18th which traditionally play as the hardest holes on the course.
It won’t surprise in a tournament where 4 straight rounds of 66 is the target that streaky scorers dominate the contending positions. Poston, Michael Kim, Ryan Moore, Jordan Spieth, Zach Johnson and ‘Mr John Deere’ himself Steve Stricker are all excellent Bentgrass putters, but equally ball-strikers can contend and occasionally win. Lucas Glover, Bryson DeChambeau, Sean O’Hair, Jhonattan Vegas, John Senden, Troy Matteson and Kyle Stanley are hardly outstanding when it comes to the flat stick, but excellent close approach play on enough holes can generate the volume of close birdie opportunities required to feature.
Also worthy of note O’Hair, Senden, Harman, DeChambeau, Kim, Frittelli and famously Jordan Spieth were all Tour maiden winners here at the John Deere Classic.
My Final John Deere Classic Tips Are As Follows:
Denny McCarthy 2.5pts EW 16/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
I’ve always said that players mature at different speeds when it comes to converting Sunday contention situations. For every Keegan Bradley, Tom Kim, Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth or Matthew Wolff who all won quickly within their first season on the PGA Tour, there are the likes of a Jimmy Walker (won for the first time on his 187th PGA Tour start), Tom Hoge (202nd start), Tim Clark (178th start) or even Wyndham Clark (129th start).
Denny McCarthy makes his 159th PGA Tour start at the John Deere Classic and he’s a player who’s overdue his maiden PGA Tour title. Up to 34th in the Official World Golf Rankings and tellingly 14th in the Data Golf rankings, that rank of 14th places him above all in this field, plus the likes of Fitzpatrick (17th), Spieth (18th) Matsuyama (19th), Homa (22nd), Day (27th) and Justin Thomas (28th).
A putter of the highest calibre, the real jump in performance this season as opposed to last has come from small, incremental improvements across his driving and approach play. Up 48 spots for Strokes Gained Off the Tee and 50 spots for Strokes Gained on Approach, Denny’s high-class putting naturally remains. And that improving overall game-shape shouts from the rooftops this week in a poor field at TPC Deere Run, where making putts ultimately is king. 6th here 12 months ago, McCarthy was 2nd going into Sunday.
12 months on and McCarthy has additional 6th (Bermuda Championship) 4th (AT&T Pebble Beach) and 8th (Wells Fargo Championship) place finishes to draw upon, but it’s 2 of his last 3 outings I think have shown a real step change in the 30 year-old’s confidence on Sunday.
68-70 over the weekend at the designated Memorial Tournament saw Denny jump from 4th to lead heading down the stretch. His only error being a costly bogey on 18 that let in Viktor Hovland to snatch a play-off which the Norwegian then converted. 20th at the U.S. Open was then followed by an opening day -10/60 at the Travelers Championship, with Denny then backing that up with a -5/65 on Friday seeing him lead going into the weekend. All incremental steps and despite not converting on the weekend, a Sunday -3/67 showed more confidence on the day when the cheques get written.
McCarthy for me is getting his head around the fact that he now belongs and I can see the Jupiter, Florida native opening his winning account this week at a tournament which is very maiden winner friendly. RESULT: T6
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Adam Schenk is another who has impressed me this season.
The sort who used to start well and tail off over the weekend, 2023 has seen a real step change. 26th in the FedEx Cup standings and within touching distance of the world’s top 50, the season-ending Tour Championship and the lucrative designated events in 2024, plenty is on offer for the 31 year-old who hails from just over the Illinois border in Vincennes, Indiana. He just needs to keep playing great golf.
2nd at the Valspar Championship, 2nd at the Charles Schwab Challenge, 7th at the Memorial Tournament and 7th last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic have been backed up with 4 top-25 finishes this season. Plus he’s mixed it with some quality players on Sunday and not backed down. Rewind to Copperhead in March when he went head-to-head with Jordan Spieth, Tommy Fleetwood and Wyndham Clark, all being pipped by Taylor Moore. Colonial was probably more galling as Schenk lost in a play-off to Emiliano Grillo after heading into Sunday as joint leader with Harry Hall. Runner-up though was another huge result, beating the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns, Rickie Fowler and Max Homa on a packed leaderboard.
16th for Strokes Gained Off the Tee, 14th for Approach and 8th for Tee to Green last week in Detroit, Adam has always been the sort who has been able to go low. That can be seen by his record here at the John Deere Classic where he was 6th in 2019 and 4th in 2021. RESULT: T4
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Eric Cole 1.5pts EW 35/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
Eric Cole is a fearless Tour rookie who could seriously take advantage of the drop in class this week.
A mini-Tour legend with 56 wins in the Minor League Golf Tour, Cole is not afraid of winning and won the Frank B. Fuhrer Invitational in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania just last week. After finishing 24th at the Travelers Championship in Connecticut, he travelled overnight to Pittsburgh Field Club where he went on to win the event by the mere matter of 9 strokes, played over Monday to Wednesday. He donated the winning $20,000 back to the founder’s family as a mark of respect.
Yes it’s only a small Minor Tour event, but the fact that needs to be taken from all of this is that Eric Cole is a genuine competitor who has competed brilliantly since his promotion to the PGA Tour this season. The loser in a play-off to Chris Kirk at the Honda Classic marked our card in February. Since then 5th at the Mexico Open, 15th at the PGA Championship, 6th at the RBC Canadian Open and 24th at the designated Travelers Championship is form that most in this field get nowhere remotely close to.
Indeed in this field across my 8-week Strokes Gained tracker he ranks in the top 15 for Approach and Putting, the top 10 for Tee to Green, the top 7 for Around the Green and 4th for Strokes Gained Total. 20th after 54 holes at the Los Angeles Country Club-hosted U.S. Open (finished 39th) and 4th after 36 holes at TPC River Highlands (finished 24th), highlight that the 35 year-old Californian, who lives in Delray Beach, Florida continues to play golf of a very high level. RESULT: T42
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As a short hitter, it’s difficult to win on the PGA Tour, but Michael Kim won this in 2018. Plus of course we’ve seen Zach Johnson and Ryan Moore win around TPC Deere Run with their amazing approach play and Bentgrass putting. With all of that in mind and I’m happy to roll with Chez Reavie yet again!
Reavie is the sort who likes courses where Driving Accuracy actually gains Strokes Off the Tee. That can work at TPC Deere Run. 8th (2017) and 3rd (2019) at Waialae CC (Sony Open); 2nd (2018) and 3rd (2019 U.S. Open) at Pebble Beach; 2nd (2018) and 4th (2019) at TPC Scottsdale (WM Phoenix Open); 1st (2019), 8th (2022) and 4th (2023) at TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship); 1st (2008) at Glen Abbey (RBC Canadian Open); 4th (2017), 6th (2018) and 6th (2020) at TPC Southwind (St Jude); 3rd (2020) at Silverado (Fortinet Championship); 4th (2016) at El Camaleon (WWT Championship). All courses where short, straight hitters with a strong wedge game can compete. So theoretically the John Deere Classic will suit Chez well this week.
5th here in 2011 behind the combined might of Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson, Reavie was 1st after 36 holes and 3rd going into Sunday. His 2021 campaign is also interesting as he finished a half-decent 18th. Scratch the surface though and an opening 64-67 had him 3rd going into the weekend. A -2/69 on Saturday still had him 8th, just 3 shots back of Sebastian Munoz heading into Sunday, before Lucas Glover shot his extraordinary -7/64 to take the title.
4th as recently as the Travelers Championship a fortnight ago, Chez across my 8-week Strokes Gained tracker ranks in this field in the top 20 for Tee to Green and in the top 10 for Approach, Putting and Current Form. He was 1st for Approach and 16th for Tee to Green when finishing 29th last week in Detroit, which in retrospect benefits the longer hitters just a smidgen too much for the likes of Reavie. RESULT: T35
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Lucas Glover loves TPC Deere Run. Even better he’s a lover of low scoring golf tournaments and is more than decent on soft golf courses. Take players who have played the John Deere Classic more than once and Lucas ranks 2nd in this field for Strokes Gained Total at TPC Deere Run since 2016. Useful to know. Indeed Glover has landed 11th (2007), 15th (2013), 25th (2017), 10th (2019) and 1st (2021) here across 13 appearances, gleaning $1.486m into the bargain.
Take our free to use (no paywall) Predictor Model into account and Glover sits 6th overall in my model. As part of that ranking, in this field, Lucas ranks T5 for results on easy (resort-level) golf courses on the PGA Tour over the past 5 years, plus T7 for performances in soft conditions. With much rain in recent days here in Illinois and rain threatening prior to and during the tournament itself, soft turf and receptive greens are where Glover does his very best work. Makes sense for a player whose strength is Off the Tee and on Approach.
That much is also clear from what we saw last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. 41st heading into the weekend in Detroit, when the rain tumbled on Saturday and Sunday the 43 year-old thrived. Rounds of -8/64 and -7/65 followed. Glover headed weekend scoring at -15/129 and his game looked imperious on Sunday. 5th for Strokes Gained on Approach (naturally) and 12th for Tee to Green, the most eye-catching number for me was his 5th for Strokes Gained Putting on Detroit’s Bentgrass greens.
At 130th in the FedEx Cup standings he can’t sit back on his laurels and will be looking to play well again this week for another large haul of valuable PGA Tour status FEC points. RESULT: T6
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