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Steve Bamford’s US Open Tips
US Open time at Bethpage Black in upper New York State. An extremely tough course, but the first thing to note is that it’s also an extremely long course, where length is important on some particularly long Par 4s.
Another point to note is that those great guys at Stan James and Paddy Power are offering up to 6th place on Each Way stakes, so fill your boots. With Tiger on the prowl that extra place could well be worth its weight in gold! Both are offering free bets for new accounts - see below:
The US Open and Bethpage Black are incredibly tough tests. However there is a ‘US Open assumption' that accuracy pays off. Well, look at the past 3 winners in Ogilvy, Cabrera and Woods and what do they have in common? Answer: huge power off the tee. Since 2006 graduated rough has been a feature at all US Open courses, which effectively means that pinpoint accuracy off the tee hasn’t been quite such as important a factor. Bethpage registers at a huge 7,400+ yards and it’s not even a Par 72! With only two Par 5s offering birdie opportunities, driving distance will be a huge advantage this week. (I can feel Mr Williams getting behind Bubba Watson as I write this!). So my staking plan has focussed solely on those with power off the tee in tandem with our unique Marking Your Card contender insight. My tips are:
Geoff Ogilvy 2pts EW @ 18-1 Bet 365. This guy is true class. Long as you like, with a superb short game. He is the second best putter on the PGA Tour and leading the European Tour race to Dubai as well. A previous US Open champion, who likes Tillinghast designed courses. I think he will go extremely close this week and offer a stern test to Tiger who at sub 2-1 is simply too short.
Paul Casey 2pts EW @ 25 -1 Stan James (6 Places). At 40-1 a number of weeks back. I’m not an overly patriotic individual, you can’t afford to be with golf betting, but I genuinely believe he can contend this week. Casey has a solid ‘major’ base to build on and his game has improved markedly in 2009. His World Number 3 status irks the Americans tremendously and on a course that his coach describes as “perfect” for his game, I’m hoping for some exciting viewing on Sky Sports.
Steve Sticker 1.5pts EW @ 33-1 Bet 365. Must say I was pleased to see Mr Stricker win at Colonial a couple of weeks ago. His World Top 10 status is no fluke and the pressure of not converting tournament challenges into wins was starting to weigh heavily. Not the longest, but his ball striking, birdie making and scrambling game sets up well at Beth Page. Has decent US Open form and plays well in Northern US states.
Hunter Mahan 0.75pt EW @ 66-1 Stan James (6 Places). Look at Hunter’s US Open CV and you see solid Top 20 performances. Long off the tee and extremely talented, the Texan saves his best performances for the tougher courses. His 2009 has been consistent and his form is heading upwards at the right time. Like Stricker, Mahan plays better at the latter end of the season ‘up state’ and I can see value at 66-1.
Dustin Johnson 0.75pt EW 100-1 Stan James (6 Places). A real talent of the future who’s had a great 2009. Johnson sits in the same player bracket as Watson, Hoffman and Glover. Extremely long young players who can burn up golf courses. I think Johnson is the best of the crop. With this year’s Bethpage set up and his affinity for New York golf courses (he won the New York state based Turning Stone tournament last year) I can see Johnson in the higher altitude of the leaderboard.
Charl Schwarztzel 1pt T10 @ 18-1 Bet 365. I like the look of the South African. Go and analyse his game stats and his 2009 season, allied to his past US Open performances. The US Open is famous year in, year out for outsider contenders. Click here and get on believe me!
PW's tips
Robert Allenby, 2pts EW 80-1 Paddy Power (6 Places). Line: Check. Length: Check. Current Form: Check. Major performances: Check. Putting:....well, if there wasn't a flaw then he'd be contesting Tiger on a regular basis! Yes, he'll miss some from inside 4 feet with his questionable putting stroke; equally he makes a few from 20 feet plus to keep his supporters scratching their heads. I reckon he'll be in the last 3 groups on Sunday and in with a shout if he keeps his cool.
Graeme McDowell, 1pt EW 100-1 Bet 365; 2pts EW 16-1 GB&Ire Betfred. Outstanding finishing round of 63 last week will give G-Mac confidence going into this week. He's not afraid of the majors - 17th at the Masters earlier this term backed up top-20 finishes at both the US PGA and British Open last season.
Ben Curtis, 1pt EW 110-1 Paddy Power (6 Places). Solid (10 of 11 cuts) yet unspectacular this season to date; has the class, temperament and game to compete here as his previous results in majors has proven. Don't be surprised if he's in contention on Sunday afternoon.
John Merrick, 0.5pts EW 200-1 Stan James (6 places); 2pts Top-20 finish 7-1 Stan James. If all of the above fail, then you can still get all of your money back and some change by backing John Merrick for a top-20 finish. Merrick has the length to tackle Bethpage Black and, whilst his accuracy is likely to hamper his outright winning chances, the rest of his game can ensure a solid finish. Off-colour since a T6 at the Masters, Merrick is one of the more likely outsiders to succeed here in my opinion and could even come close to repeating his T6 last year.
Good luck everyone!