Thanks Brian, you got me thinking on a totally different angle this week. Fact is Brian is 100% correct, the US Open is in many ways a complete lottery. Course form is usually non-existent, or at least extremely dated, as the US Open travels a discreet circuit of extremely tough and normally long golf courses. However the 2010 US Open Pebble Beach is slightly different. Yes the US Open was held here and won by Tiger in 2000, but Pebble Beach is also a regular stop off on the PGA Tour, where the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am is a central part of the early season ‘west coast swing.’
The lottery element is no better illustrated than mentioning Lucas Glover, Angel Cabrera and Michael Campbell who won ‘shock’ majors in their respective years. Even 2007 winner Geoff Ogilvy has never backed up his achievement with another major championship. Fact is only Tiger Woods has won a tournament in the same season prior to winning the US Open since 2000. Season winners don’t win the US Open, so you won’t be reading about Phil, Lee, Rory, Jim, Ernie, Luke or even Dustin, Rhys or Yong-Eun further below. If you fancy a longshot again this year then read our thoughts on those most likely to contend: US Open Longshots; or for top 20 finish tips click here.
My tips are as follows:
Tiger Woods 2pts
win 15/2
with
£20 'no lose' bet - get it
here:
Phil is favourite and Tiger can’t win, so I’m on Tiger! I read an ‘expert’ in the US yesterday pontificating that Tiger can’t win. Utter Rubbish! His putter was warm at both The Masters and Memorial; he just needs to find more consistency with his iron play. Even with rusty iron-play he delivered 4th at the Masters and 19th at Memorial. Remember we’re not looking for season winners so Tiger’s in a perfect position. You won’t be seeing these prices on Tiger for too much longer so I’d snap it up this week and relax. Even better you can get a 14/1 return on Woods to win the US Open with Extrabet's new account offer: click here for more details . An absolute no brainer in my opinion and I’m on it! RESULT: Tied 4th
Padraig Harrington
1pt Each Way 28/1 with
Bet £10, get £30 here:
Harrington is totally right for Pebble Beach this week. A links golfer of the highest calibre, for Harrington Pebble Beach holds no fears, 14th in 2008 and 15th here in February indicate as much. Interestingly the AT&T Pro Am here in February only plays 2 rounds at Pebble and Harrington shot -4 under for his 2 rounds. In decent enough nick with a recent 7th at Quail Hollow, was in contention at Wentworth and ‘throttled back’ last week in Memphis. Paddy hasn’t won since his PGA Championship success in 2008, so absolutely perfect for our approach this week and it’s certain that he has both the game and temperament to win this week. RESULT: Tied 22nd
Retief Goosen 1pt Each Way
50/1 with
Get 5 x £5 free bets click here:
A 50/1 market-leading price on a two-time winner of the US Open is eye watering. Goosen must be in bad form then? Yes, the Orlando Florida domiciled South African has been injured, but effectively he’s fresh and he’s perfect for my team this week as he’s a non 2010 winner. I like that because Goosen is under no pressure as there are no expectations on him this week hence the juicy price. 4th at Bay Hill in April meant he was hot property for The Masters where he duly finished 38th. 3rd here last year at the AT&T and 12th here at the US Open in 2000, Goosen ALWAYS saves his best performance for tougher Open formats. Note his CV which includes US Open victory on the links at Shinnecock Hills and most recently his play off defeat to Nathan Green in the Canadian Open last year. RESULT: Tied 58th
Nick Watney 0.75pt Each Way
66/1
with
6 Place EW payout, up to £200 free bets click here:
6 place Each Way payout promotion for this week’s US Open is perfect for Californian Nick Watney. He’s a perfect Each Way pick for this week although I’m of the opinion he has the game to win in it, with Butch Harmon playing a central role in Watney’s back room team. He’s another 2010 non winner who back in his ‘home state’ loves playing both Pebble Beach and Torrey Pines. Poa Annoa greens therefore hold no fears, indeed Watney won the Buick Invitational at Torrey Pines last year. 7 visits to Pebble have yielded only a single missed cut and 7th in 2006. 3 Top 10s in 2010 including 4th at Augusta make up what experts are describing as a ‘disappointing’ season. For a full list of bookmakers going 6 places each way on the US Open click here: US Open Betting. RESULT: 76th
Vijay Singh 0.75pt Each Way 100/1
with
6 Place EW payout, up to £200 free bets click here:
The big Fijian only qualified on a special exemption to get into the tournament but he’s a lot of player for a three figure price and a great Each Way punt especially at Bet365 who are paying out to 6 places. Naturally a non winner in 2010 hence earns a place in my team. He won his last of 3 major championships at the Pete Dye designed Whistling Straits in 2004. Notable in the fact that the Dye course was both a wind-swept links and had famously small greens so very similar to Pebble. Singh hits a natural fade shot so finds Pebble comfortable and his recent form is improving as he starts to find some ‘warmth’ with his Achilles Heel, the putter. His love for Pebble can be seen in the fact that he has won the AT&T Pro Am and finished 2nd here 3 times! If you fancy a bigger price but only on 5 Each Way places you can pick him up for 125/1 at Sky Bet but I’d suggest it won’t last! RESULT: Tied 41st
Michael Sim 1pt Top 10 20/1
Get 5 x £5 free bets click here:
There is no doubt that an Australian will contend this week and I wouldn’t be surprised if it isn’t Ogilvy, Scott, Allenby, Appleby or Baddeley, but Western Australian’s young gun Michael Sim. This guy LOVES coastal golf and his 2nd at Torrey Pines in February was no real surprise. The Nationwide Tour 2009 Player of the Year currently sits in the Worlds Top 100 and is a class act. Worthy of note were his 5th and 6th places at the Australian Open and PGA Championships over the winter. You guessed it both were at coastal links courses. Ladbrokes 20/1 is an incredibly generous price when he is as short as 10/1 elsewhere to finish in the Top 10. Check out our top 20 finish tips here. RESULT: Missed Cut
Prices and bookmaker offers correct 14:15BST 17.6.10 but naturally subject to fluctuation
