3M Open Tips 2023

Congratulations if you were on-board Brian Harman at Monday prices (bet365) up to 110/1. Brian was the biggest priced winner of a Major Championship since Phil Mickelson when he lifted the 2021 PGA Championship at 250/1. With Wyndham Clark winning the U.S. Open at 66/1 in June, Team USA is going to look very different at the 2023 Ryder Cup.

On to this week and the fifth renewal of the 3M Open, played at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. 3M are based in Minneapolis and have sponsored a PGA Tour Champions Tour event in the area since 2001. 3M have certainly stepped up to the mark, parting with the circa $16 million required to sponsor a PGA Tour event. Tony Finau defends with Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama and Sungjae Im in attendance.

Before we go into the detail surrounding the 3M Open, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,200 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

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Course Guide: The 3M Championship had been an established tournament on the PGA Champions Tour going back to 1993 before it was promoted to the PGA Tour in 2019. Played in the northern suburbs of Minneapolis at TPC Twin Cities, this was always a tournament which produced very low scores.

A 7,114 yard Par 72 was the format for the Seniors, and winning scores of -19/197 (2016 – Joe Durant), -20/196 (2017 – Paul Goydos) and -21/195 (2018 – Kenny Perry) show that this course was very much there for the taking. After Kenny Perry lifted the trophy in August 2018, a Tom Lehman and Tim Herron-led course renovation started on this original Arnold Palmer design, with the focus of adding distance which they achieved by adding 350 yards. However across its PGA Tour renewals, winning scores of 21/263, 19/265, -15/269 and -17/267 highlight a golf course which in recent years has put up some resistance, especially as 15 holes feature water in play.

TPC Twin Cities, Blaine, Minnesota: Designer: Arnold Palmer, 2000 with Herron and Lehman renovation, 2018; Course Type: Mid-Score, Medium Length; Par: 71; Length: 7,431 yards; Number of Holes with Water In Play: 15 Holes; Fairways: Bentgrass; Rough: Bluegrass with fescue 4″; Greens: 6,500 sq.ft average featuring Bentgrass; Tournament Stimp: 12ft. Course Scoring Average 2016: 69.92 (-2.08), Champions Tour Difficulty Rank 25 of 26 courses. 2017: 69.28 (-2.72), Champions Tour Difficulty Rank 24 of 26. 2018: 70.92 (-1.08), Champions Tour Difficulty Rank 18 of 26 courses. 2019: 69.46 (-2.54), PGA Tour Difficulty Rank 36 of 49 courses. 2020: 69.95 (-1.05), PGA Tour Difficulty Rank 23 of 41 courses. 2021: 70.44 (-0.56), Difficulty Rank 24 of 51 courses. 2022: 71.44 (+0.44) Difficulty Rank 14 of 50 courses.

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for TPC Twin Cities and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:

• TPC Twin Cities: 250 yards from the tee: 38 yards wide; 275:38; 300:31; 325:30; 350:36.
• TPC Deere Run: 250 yards from tee: 41 yards wide; 275:40; 300:36 325:33; 350:30.
• TPC River Highlands: 250 yards from the tee: 38 yards wide; 275:36; 300:29; 325:29; 350:28.
• Muirfield Village: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:28; 325:24; 350:27.
• Colonial: 250 yards from tee: 27 yards wide; 275:26; 300:27; 325:26; 350:23.
• Champions Course – Southern Hills: Average 40 yards wide.
• TPC Potomac: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:30; 300:27; 325:23; 350:27.
• Harbour Town: 250 yards from tee: 29 yards wide; 275:26; 300:22; 325:26; 350:22.
• Oaks Course: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:34; 300:29; 325:27; 350:26.
• Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
• TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
• Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
• PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
• Riviera: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26 350:28.
• TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
• Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
• Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
• TPC Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
• Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
• Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.

Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Arnold Palmer designs include:

• Albany – 2015 – 2021 Hero World Challenge
• Bay Hill Country Club – Arnold Palmer Invitational
• Isleworth Golf & Country Club – 2014 Hero World Challenge
• PGA West – Palmer Private – Host Course 2008 through 2015 Career Builder Challenge
• TPC Boston – Dell Technologies Championship

Course Overview: TPC Twin Cities is part of the Tournament Players Club group of courses owned by the PGA Tour. Apart from the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass, which is the PGA Tour’s Number 1 tournament, TPC Designs tend to be quite standard and gettable. Naturally built and operated in the main for amateur players who want to be able to play courses they see the top professionals play on TV, the course set-ups tend to be resort like in general.

And so it has proved more or less over the past 4 years. Despite course strengthening TPC Twin Cities proved to be a total birdie-fest on its inaugural outing, and in 2020 with a couple of days with gusting 25 mph wind to contend with the winning total was -19/265. 2021 saw a -15/269 winning total with faster greens and a nagging 15mph westerly in play all week, with Tony Finau winning at -17/267 last year. 2022 saw +25mph winds on Thursday, with rain during Saturday producing a soft scoreable course where 4 players shot -7/64.

The course is wide from the tee, and despite fairways being tree-lined this is no classical layout. In fact the course sees water used as a defence on a majority of holes, giving the course almost a Florida-type look to it. I’ll add a couple of other facts. The course features pure Bentgrass green complexes, and at 900 feet in altitude the ball flies a little further than the professionals are used to. With the calculations required this is something that some players can work through with no issues, but undoubtedly some struggle with trusting the mathematics.

An original Arnold Palmer design, the course post Herron/Lehman renovation now plays as a 7,431 yard Par 71, which with thinner air is short enough to take apart. Green complexes are large at an average 6,500 square feet, especially when compared to recent Tour stop-offs. With 3 par-5s measuring 594 yards (6th), 593 yards (12th) and 596 yards (18th) in length, the longest holes on the course show some resistance here, but both sets of par-3s and par-4s are easy from a PGA Tour scoring perspective.

3M Open Winners: 2022: Tony Finau (-17); 2021: Cameron Champ (-15); 2020: Michael Thompson (-19); 2019: Matthew Wolff (-21).

• 2022: Tony Finau 67-68-65-67 -17/267 PM/AM Wave
• 2021: Cameron Champ 69-67-67-66 -15/269  AM/PM Wave
• 2020: Michael Thompson 64-66-68-67 -19/265 PM/AM Wave
• 2019: Matthew Wolff 69-67-62-65 -21/263  AM/PM Wave

OWGR of 3M Open Winners: 2022: Finau 17; 2021: Champ 123; 2020: Thompson 208; 2019: Wolff 1659.

Cut Line: 2022: +1; 2021: -2; 2020: -2; 2019: -3.

Lead Score Progression:

• 2022: Round 1 -6; Round 2 -13; Round 3 -18; Round 4 -17
• 2021: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -10; Round 3 -12; Round 4 -15.
• 2020: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -15; Round 4 -19.
• 2019: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -14; Round 3 -15; Round 4 -21.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Sungjae Im, Nicolai Hojgaard, Cameron Young, Gary Woodland, Cameron Champ, Keith Mitchell, Cameron Davis, Tony Finau, Vincent Norrman and Emiliano Grillo.

Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.

3M Open Winning Prices: 2022: Finau 14/1F; 2021: Champ 150/1; 2020: Thompson 125/1; 2019: Wolff 175/1. Overall Average: 116/1. For a full summary of winner’s odds on the PGA Tour since 2010 click here.

Historical Weather:

• 2022: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 86. Wind NW 12-17 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 92. Wind WSW 12-16 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Saturday: With the threat of severe weather, third-round tee times featured threesomes off tee Nos. 1 and 10 from 6:50 – 9:02 a.m. CT. Due to inclement weather, the third round was suspended from 10:57 am until 5:35 p.m. (6 hours, 38 minutes). High of 85. Wind ESE 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. 15mm rain. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 78. Wind NW 15-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph.
• 2021: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 88. Wind S 6-12 mph, with gusts to 17 mph. Due to inclement weather, round one was suspended from 11:28 a.m. to 1:52 p.m. (2 hours, 24 minutes). Play was suspended due to darkness at 8:54 p.m., with 11 players yet to complete their round. Friday: Mostly cloudy. High of 93. Wind SSW 10-15 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 90. Wind NW 10-15 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 92. Wind WNW 10-15 mph.
• 2020: Thursday: Due to fog, the start to round one was delayed by 19 minutes and began at 7:09 a.m. CT. Mostly sunny with a high of 81. SE wind 8-15 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 88. Wind S 13-18 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Saturday: Cloudy with scattered showers. High of 89. Wind S 14-20 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Sunday: Due to early morning storms, the original one-tee start at 7:20 a.m. was changed to a split tee start from 9:59 a.m. – noon. Mostly cloudy. High of 82. Wind NW 7-14 mph.
• 2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 83. Wind N 8-15 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 87. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 90. Wind SW 6-12 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 92. Wind S/SSW 6-12 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Blaine, Minneapolis, is here.

Hot, humid and with a moderate breeze on a couple of the days is the forecast summary for this week. Typical 30 degree Celsius (+86 Fahrenheit) or higher temperatures here in Minneapolis are in play this week. The course has received a good dousing over the past 7 days, but with the chance of rain less than 50% across tournament week, I’d expect releasing fairways and watered greens – the perfect mix for a high-teens winning score. All in all, at this stage I’m thinking -18 to -20 winning total.

Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Memorial Tournament / Porsche European Open which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Ludvig Aberg; 2) Brent Grant; 3) J.J. Spaun; 4) Trevor Cone; 5) Kevin Yu; 6) Peter Kuest / Sam Bennett; 8) Cameron Young; 9) Garrick Higgo; 10) Keith Mitchell; 11) M.J. Daffue / Sepp Straka; 13) Emiliano Grillo / Vincent Norrman; 15) Lucas Glover / Beau Hossler; 17) Lanto Griffin; 18) Ryan Palmer; 19) Grayson Murray / Callum Tarren; 21) Cameron Champ; 22) S.H. Kim / Gary Woodland; 24) Aaron Rai; 25) Andrew Novak.
• Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Chez Reavie; 2) Adam Hadwin / Greyson Sigg; 4) Stephan Jaeger / Peter Kuest / Hideki Matsuyama; 7) Eric Cole / Mark Hubbard; 9) Kevin Streelman; 10) Lucas Glover; 11) Gary Woodland; 12) Nate Lashley; 13) Ben Griffin; 14) Cody Gribble; 15) J.J. Spaun; 16) Emiliano Grillo / Charley Hoffman / Ryan Palmer; 19) Russell Knox / Sepp Straka; 21) Marty Dou / Sungjae Im / Grayson Murray; 25) Justin Lower / Henrik Norlander.
• Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Ryan Fox; 2) Matthias Schwab; 3) Satoshi Kodaira; 4) Tano Goya; 5) Jonathan Byrd; 6) Adam Long; 7) Ryan Gerard; 8) Stephan Jaeger / Andrew Novak; 10) Troy Merritt; 11) Aaron Baddeley; 12) S.H. Kim / Sam Stevens; 14) Aaron Rai / J.J. Spaun; 16) Austin Cook / Stewart Cink / Martin Laird / Chad Ramey / Dylan Wu; 21) Tom Hoge / Nicolai Hojgaard; 23) J.T. Poston / Matt Wallace; 25) Ryan Palmer / Kevin Streelman.
• Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Ludvig Aberg; 2) Stephan Jaeger; 3) J.J. Spaun; 4) Greyson Sigg / Gary Woodland; 6) Sepp Straka; 7) Hideki Matsuyama; 8) Ryan Palmer / Cameron Young; 10) Ryan Fox; 11) Aaron Rai; 12) Lucas Glover; 13) Peter Kuest; 14) Grayson Murray / Chez Reavie; 16) Kevin Streelman; 17) Trevor Cone / Vincent Norrman; 19) Kevin Yu; 20) Emiliano Grillo / Keith Mitchell / Troy Merritt / Taylor Pendrith; 24) Doug Ghim; 25) Eric Cole / Russell Knox / Nate Lashley.
• Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Brian Gay / Justin Suh; 3) M.J. Daffue; 4) J.T. Poston; 5) Eric Cole; 6) Grayson Murray; 7) Nick Hardy; 8) Chesson Hadley / Harry Hall; 10) Mark Hubbard / Carson Young; 12) Peter Malnati; 13) Justin Lower; 14) Sahith Theegala; 15) Kelly Kraft; 16) Davis Thompson; 17) Harry Higgs; 18) Kevin Roy; 19) Aaron Baddeley / Sungjae Im; 21) Andrew Landry; 22) Alex Noren; 23) Garrick Higgo / Seung-yul Noh; 25) Chez Reavie / Patrick Rodgers / Richy Werenski.
• Top 25 SG Total: 1) Ludvig Aberg; 2) Eric Cole; 3) Ryan Fox / Sepp Straka; 5) Mark Hubbard; 6) Gary Woodland; 7) M.J. Daffue / Beau Hossler / Hideki Matsuyama / Chez Reavie; 11) Grayson Murray / J.T. Poston; 13) Greyson Sigg; 14) Lucas Glover / Stephan Jaeger / Aaron Rai; 17) Nicolai Hojgaard; 18) J.J. Spaun; 19) Doug Ghim / Vincent Norrman / Davis Thompson; 22) Ryan Gerard / Emiliano Grillo / Patrick Rodgers / Cameron Young.

For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at TPC Twin Cities since 2019 click here.

Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the 3M Open winners here at TPC Twin Cities since 2019 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this low scoring test:

Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:

• 2022, Tony Finau (-17). SG Off the Tee: 3rd, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 2nd, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 42nd.
• 2021, Cameron Champ (-15). SG Off the Tee: 39th, SG Approach: 19th, SG Around the Green: 48th, SG Tee to Green: 27th, SG Putting: 1st.
• 2020, Michael Thompson (-19). SG Off the Tee: 51st, SG Approach: 4th, SG Around the Green: 53rd, SG Tee to Green: 17th, SG Putting: 1st.
• 2019, Matthew Wolff (-21). SG Off the Tee: 21st, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 18th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 39th.

Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:

• SG Off the Tee: 29th, SG Approach: 7th, SG Around the Green: 30th, SG Tee to Green: 12th, SG Putting: 21st.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winners of the 3M Open back to 2019 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this resort scoring-level test:

• 2022, Tony Finau (-17). 311 yards (16th), 76.8% fairways (6th), 83.3% greens in regulation (3rd), 32’6″ proximity to hole (10th), 83.3 % scrambling (1st), 1.77 putts per GIR (37th).
• 2021, Cameron Champ (-15). 318 yards (8th), 58.9% fairways (49th), 75.0% greens in regulation (22nd), 33’7″ proximity to hole (22nd), 77.8 % scrambling (6th), 1.63 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2020, Michael Thompson (-19). 293 yards (46th), 67.9% fairways (22nd), 83.3% greens in regulation (3rd), 33’3″ proximity to hole (31st), 83.3% scrambling (2nd), 1.72 putts per GIR (20th).
• 2019, Matthew Wolff (-21). 304 yards (36th), 67.9% fairways (31st), 83.3% greens in regulation (6th), 28’5″ proximity to hole (11th), 50.0% scrambling (62nd), 1.63 putts per GIR (6th).

Tournament Skill Averages:

• Driving Distance: 26th, Driving Accuracy: 27th, Greens in Regulation: 9th, Proximity to Hole: 19th, Scrambling: 18th, Putting Average 16th.

Let’s take a view from players as to how TPC Twin Cities sets up and what skill sets the course favours:

Tony Finau (2022): “Yeah, I played really nicely. I thought it was pretty tricky. There was enough wind up there to kind of affect every shot, putting and hitting, but I steadied the ship pretty good. I bogeyed the first hole, which is not the start you want on a day where it’s playing kind of tricky, but I was able to hole some putts in the middle of that front nine and kind of get going in the middle of the round. So I held it together really nicely and my ball-striking really came through for me to kind of make the golf course gettable on a day like today.”

“2nd shot on 18, I had 230 over the water. It was a 3-iron. It didn’t come out the way I wanted, it was basically like I was hitting out of the rough. I was at the very end of the first cut, but three to six inches from my golf ball the rough was about this high. So what ended up happening is basically like I was hitting out of the rough. I hit a hard 3-iron, which is about my 250 club, and it barely covered the water. I’ll take that putt after kind of a scare with the second shot.

Cameron Champ (2021): Yeah, I was just in a very good place. My game was trending in the right direction. The previous two days I felt like it was just kind of stress-free golf. Obviously I feel like I left a lot out there, but I knew Sunday if I just played the same way and minimized the mistakes, which I did today, I might have a chance. Obviously coming down today, the course played not as easy as it did Thursday, Friday. Obviously the wind conditions, it kind of started to firm up some and I just dug down and just tried to finish it off.”

Troy Merritt (2021): “You know, as most of the players would tell you, they think a lot of courses suit their eye, but I like bent greens, I always have. I’m not a fan of Bermuda, and obviously we don’t have it up here. Spent plenty of years up here playing on these style of golf courses and hopefully we can use that to our advantage this weekend.”

Michael Thompson (2020): “Putting, really. I really like these greens, I’ve always liked bentgrass greens. Growing up in Arizona, I grew up on kind of slow Bermuda, kind of grainy Bermuda, and so it was a treat to get to play bent. So when I get good greens like this that roll smooth, it feels like the ball is hugging the ground for a long time, I get excited because I know I’m starting it on my line and it’s easier for me to get a good feel. I think I started out the week with confidence in my putting, and I’m going to go do some work in a little bit and maintain that and just kind of keep it rolling.

It is, it is, very much like PGA National this course.  You know what shots you have to hit. There’s no if, and or but about it, you’ve just got to step up and hit the shot, execute, and I’m doing that well this week. I’m happy with where I’m at, feel like my game’s really good. It was nice to get those jitters out of the way today and tomorrow, going to go have some fun.”

Matthew Wolff (2019): “ This course is gettable, especially with the rain, it’s been softer. I feel like it’s a course that really suits me well, a lot of drivers. Hitting the fairway obviously sets you up in good position to hit a lot of wedges in there, and I think that’s the biggest thing today is I was really dialled in with my wedges, got the distances really spot on.”

Bryson DeChambeau (2019): “Both 18 and 9 are difficult holes. They’re very difficult holes. Look, if you hit in the fairway on 18, it’s a pretty simple hole. If you hit it in the rough, it’s a tough layup and you’ve got to wedge it close to try to make birdie. You’re giving up a shot. No. 9, it’s also a very difficult hole. You’ve got to hit a good drive. If the pin’s over there on the right on nine again, you’re going to have to think about it. It’s a very difficult hole. Just make sure you’re in the fairway, so they’re both difficult.

For sure, I think that there’s a lot of water and a lot of tedious tee shots out here and that’s a pretty good defence. The pins were tucked a couple times today and people are going to make mistakes. Piercy shooting 9 under yesterday just kind of opened the floodgates a little bit, just going, okay, we can do it out here.”

Collin Morikawa (2019): “I think my ball-striking’s kept me in this week and finally was able to make some putts. Yeah, no, I like this course, it fits my eye a lot, it fits my eye off the tee, which is really comfortable and I think that’s the most part. You’ve got to see it from the tee and see it all the way from the last shot that’s going to drop. It’s pretty much stress-free today other than the three-putt. Just hit my lines, hit a lot of good shots and played to my strengths. Ball-striking has been my strength ever since I’ve been a little kid and kept up on that.”

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the winners of the 3M Open since 2019:

• 2022 – Tony Finau: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 3rd.
• 2021 – Cameron Champ: Round 1: 38th, Round 2: 19th, Round 3: 4th.
• 2020 – Michael Thompson: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2019 – Matthew Wolff: Round 1: 49th, Round 2: 35th, Round 3: 1st.

Shots From the Lead: Below are the 3M Open winners since 2019 and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:

• 2022 – Tony Finau: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 6 back, Round 3: 5 back.
• 2021 – Cameron Champ: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 2 back.
• 2020 – Michael Thompson: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: level.
• 2019 – Matthew Wolff: Round 1: 7 back, Round 2: 8 back, Round 3: level.

Incoming Form of 3M Open winners since 2019:

• Tony Finau: 28th Open/13th Travelers/MC US Open/2nd Canadian Open.
• Cameron Champ: 11th John Deere/MC Rocket Mortgage/MC US Open / WD Memorial.
• Michael Thompson: MC Workday/64th Rocket Mortgage/46th Travelers/8th Heritage.
• Matthew Wolff: MC Rocket Mortgage/MC Travelers/50th TPC Scottsdale.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.

• 2022 – Im/Piercy – Both AM – -6/65 – 33/1 & 100/1.
• 2021 – Fowler/Merritt/Sloan/Vegas  -2AM/2PM Split -7/64 – 66/1, 90/1, 100/1 & 66/1.
• 2020 – Werenski  – PM -8/63 – 90/1.
• 2019 – Piercy  – PM -9/62 – 66/1.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 5 – Justin Thomas.
• 4 – Hideki Matsuyama.
• 3 – Lucas Glover, Matt Kuchar, Ryan Moore.
• 2 – Stewart Cink, Jason Dufner, Tony Finau, Billy Horschel, Martin Laird, K.H. Lee, Troy Merritt.
• 1 – Jonathan Byrd, Cameron Champ, Dylan Frittelli, Emiliano Grillo, Jim Herman, Charley Hoffman, Sungjae Im, Michael Kim, Russell Knox, David Lingmerth, Ben Martin, Trey Mullinax, Vincent Norrman, J.T. Poston, Chez Reavie, Brandt Snedeker, Sepp Straka, Kevin Streelman, Nick Watney.

Naturally we have now seen 4 renewals here. 2019 saw Matthew Wolff deliver his first PGA Tour win at the age of 20 in only his 4th PGA Tour start. His win came off incoming form of MC/MC since becoming a professional at the Travelers Championship only 2 weeks earlier, and he won at a rather tasty 175/1 best price. 2020 saw Michael Thompson win at 125/1. His inbound form read MC/64/46/8, with the top 8 finish coming at Harbour Town 4 appearances back.

2021 saw Cameron Champ win. More in the mould of a Matthew Wolff as a stellar driving distance golfer, Champ was more obvious than the previous 2 winners. 11th last time out at the John Deere Classic had seen Cameron in 3rd spot heading into Sunday. He landed the 3M Open at 150/1. Last year saw Tony Finau fly to Minnesota direct from St Andrews after finishing 28th at the Open Championship. His form read 28/13/MC/2/4 with the runner-up finish coming at the RBC Canadian Open. With only 2 PGA Tour wins to his name, Tony was the 14/1 favourite which was a tough price to swallow pre-event for many.

It’s relatively early days in terms of being able to correlate courses to TPC Twin Cities, and building your preferences solely on some tenuous links would be ill-advised, but it’s worth remembering that we are in the north of the United States. Matthew Wolff since his win has popped up in Detroit (Michigan) at the Rocket Mortgage Classic birdiefest where he shot -20/268 to finish 2nd behind Bryson DeChambeau. DeChambeau of course finished runner-up here in 2019 when we were on-board at 16/1, tied in fact with Collin Morikawa. Now Bryson and Collin are both Muirfield Village winners, with Bryson also winning his first ever PGA Tour title at Deere Run in 2017. Collin went on to finish 4th at Deere Run the week after his runner-up finish here at TPC Twin Cities, and was T2 at Detroit in 2023.  Another player you can throw into this mix is Adam Hadwin. 4th and 6th here in his 2 appearances at the 3M Open, he has also finished 4th (2020) and 2nd (2023) in Detroit. The Canadian has always been the sort who likes low scoring so 8th at Deere Run (2016) plus 4th (2019) and 6th (2021) at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas is also interesting, especially on the basis that Bryson DeChambeau won the 2018 Shriners Open and has another 3 top-8 finishes there in the Las Vegas desert suburbs.

How does this translate to Michael Thompson? Well you have to dig a little with the Arizona man, but Michael does have 8th and 14th place finishes at Muirfield Village. 12th at Deere Run fits and there is also a 13th place finish at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas. It’s not emboldened correlating form, but it’s there. Michael also has a top-10 finish at Colonial on his CV, which again fits nicely with Morikawa (2nd 2020), DeChambeau (3rd 2020) and Adam Hadwin (5th 2015, 8th 2021).

Cameron Champ was 11th at Deere Run the outing before he won this and had also finished 12th at the 2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic emboldening that correlating course line of enquiry, especially as he was also 2nd at Detroit Golf Club in 2019 going into the weekend. 14th at Colonial (2020) also links very nicely.

Tony Finau reinforces plenty of these correlating course links as well. Tony went on to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit the week after winning the 3M Open. 2nd (2019) and 4th (2022) at Colonial is spot-on form, as are a couple of top-10 finishes at both Muirfield Village and TPC Summerlin.

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 15:10BST 24.7.23 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.