It was nice to get a 40/1 victory with Nick Dunlap at the Barracuda Championship last week. Apart from Rory McIlroy – the less said about that the better – my main bet at The Open was Shane Lowry at 33/1, who in my opinion should be the 2024 champion. With a 3-shot lead on Saturday I expected better from the Irishman.
On to this week and it’s the sixth time we’ve visited the 3M Open played at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. 3M are based in Minneapolis and have sponsored a PGA Tour Champions Tour event in the area since 2001. 3M have certainly stepped up to the mark, parting with the circa $16 million required to sponsor a PGA Tour event. Lee Hodges defends with Tony Finau and Sahith Theegala in attendance.
Before we go into the detail surrounding the 3M Open, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,400 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
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Course Guide: The 3M Championship had been an established tournament on the PGA Champions Tour going back to 1993 before it was promoted to the PGA Tour in 2019. Played in the northern suburbs of Minneapolis at TPC Twin Cities, this was always a tournament which produced very low scores.
A 7,114 yard Par 72 was the format for the Seniors and winning scores of -19/197 (2016 – Joe Durant), -20/196 (2017 – Paul Goydos) and -21/195 (2018 – Kenny Perry) show that this course was very much there for the taking. After Kenny Perry lifted the trophy in August 2018, a Tom Lehman and Tim Herron led course renovation started on this original Arnold Palmer design, with the focus of adding distance, which they achieved by adding 350 yards. However across its PGA Tour renewals winning scores of 21/263, 19/265, -15/269, -17/267 and -24/260 highlight a golf course which, apart from if bad weather is in play, isn’t that much of a challenge.
TPC Twin Cities, Blaine, Minnesota: Designer: Arnold Palmer, 2000 with Herron and Lehman renovation, 2018; Course Type: Mid-Score, Long Length; Par: 71; Length: 7,431 yards; Number of Holes with Water In-Play: 15; Number of Sand Bunkers: 72; Acres of Fairway: 28; Fairways: Bentgrass; Rough: Bluegrass with fescue 4″; Greens: 6,500 sq.ft average featuring Bentgrass; Tournament Stimp: 12ft.
Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:
2023: 69.71 (-1.29), Difficulty Rank 36 of 50 courses
2022: 71.44 (+0.44) Difficulty Rank 14 of 50 courses
2021: 70.44 (-0.56), Difficulty Rank 24 of 51 courses
2020: 69.95 (-1.05), Difficulty Rank 23 of 41 courses
2019: 69.46 (-2.54), Difficulty Rank 36 of 49 courses
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for TPC Twin Cities and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
TPC Twin Cities: 250 yards from the tee: 38 yards wide; 275:38; 300:31; 325:30; 350:36.
Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
Riviera: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26 350:28.
TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Arnold Palmer designs include:
Albany – 2015 – 2023 Hero World Challenge
Bay Hill Country Club – Arnold Palmer Invitational
Isleworth Golf & Country Club – 2014 Hero World Challenge
PGA West – Palmer Private – Host Course 2008 through 2015 Career Builder Challenge
TPC Boston – Dell Technologies Championship
Course Overview: TPC Twin Cities is part of the Tournament Players Club group of courses owned by the PGA Tour. Apart from the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass, which is the PGA Tour’s Number 1 tournament, TPC Designs tend to be quite standard and gettable. Built and operated in the main for amateur players who want to be able to play courses they see the top professionals play on TV, the course set-ups tend to be resort-like in general.
And so it has proved more or less over the past 5 years. Despite course strengthening, TPC Twin Cities proved to be a total birdie-fest on its inaugural outing and in 2020 with a couple of days with gusting 25 mph wind to contend with, the winning total was -19/265. 2021 saw a -15/269 winning total with faster greens and a nagging 15mph westerly in play all week, with Tony Finau winning at -17/267 in 2022 which saw +25mph winds on Thursday, with rain during Saturday producing a soft scoreable course where 4 players shot -7/64. Lee Hodges won last year at -24/260 by 7 clear shots, with middling to light winds and a soft course from a Friday downpour.
The course is wide from the tee, and despite fairways being tree-lined this is no classical layout. In fact the course sees water used as a defence on a majority of holes, giving the course almost a Florida-type look to it. I’ll add a couple of other facts. The course features pure Bentgrass green complexes, and at 900 feet in altitude the ball flies a little further than the professionals are used to. With the calculations required, this is something that some players can work through with no issues, but undoubtedly some struggle with trusting the mathematics.
An original Arnold Palmer design, the course post Herron/Lehman renovation now plays as a 7,431 yard Par 71, which with thinner air is short enough to take apart. Green complexes are large at an average 6,500 square feet, especially when compared to recent Tour stop offs. With 3 par-5s measuring 594 yards (6th), 593 yards (12th) and 596 yards (18th) in length, the longest holes on the course show some resistance here, but both sets of par-3s and par-4s are easy from a PGA Tour scoring perspective.
3M Open Winners: 2023: Lee Hodges (-24); 2022: Tony Finau (-17); 2021: Cameron Champ (-15); 2020: Michael Thompson (-19); 2019: Matthew Wolff (-21).
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Tony Finau, Keith Mitchell, Tom Hoge, Sam Burns, Hayden Springer, Pierceson Coody, Rico Hoey, Cam Davis, Sam Stevens and Jhonattan Vegas.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
2023: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 89. Wind NE 8-12 mph, gusting to 18 mph. Due to inclement weather, round one was suspended for the day Thursday at 6:59 p.m. CT with 21 players having not completed their round. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 89. Wind NE 8-12 mph, gusting to 18 mph. Play was suspended at 4:23 p.m. due to dangerous weather. The second round resumed at 6:20 p.m., a delay of 1 hour, 57. Play was suspended for the day at 8:53 p.m. due to darkness with six players to complete their round. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 82. Wind NW 8-14 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 80. Wind NNW 6-12 mph, gusting to 15 mph.
2022: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 86. Wind NW 12-17 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 92. Wind WSW 12-16 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Saturday: With the threat of severe weather, third-round tee times featured threesomes off tee Nos. 1 and 10 from 6:50 – 9:02 a.m. CT. Due to inclement weather, the third round was suspended from 10:57 am until 5:35 p.m. (6 hours, 38 minutes). High of 85. Wind ESE 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. 15mm rain. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 78. Wind NW 15-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph.
2021: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 88. Wind S 6-12 mph, with gusts to 17 mph. Due to inclement weather, round one was suspended from 11:28 a.m. to 1:52 p.m. (2 hours, 24 minutes). Play was suspended due to darkness at 8:54 p.m., with 11 players yet to complete their round. Friday: Mostly cloudy. High of 93. Wind SSW 10-15 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 90. Wind NW 10-15 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 92. Wind WNW 10-15 mph.
2020: Thursday: Due to fog, the start to round one was delayed by 19 minutes and began at 7:09 a.m. CT. Mostly sunny with a high of 81. SE wind 8-15 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 88. Wind S 13-18 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Saturday: Cloudy with scattered showers. High of 89. Wind S 14-20 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Sunday: Due to early morning storms, the original one-tee start at 7:20 a.m. was changed to a split tee start from 9:59 a.m. – noon. Mostly cloudy. High of 82. Wind NW 7-14 mph.
2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 83. Wind N 8-15 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 87. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 90. Wind SW 6-12 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 92. Wind S/SSW 6-12 mph.
Weather Forecast: Latest weather forecast for Blaine, Minnesota is here.
Pleasant temperatures – 27-29 degrees Celsius – 81-84 Fahrenheit – with sunshine and moderate south-westerly winds is the summary for the 3M Open this week. There is a risk of a thunderstorm on Sunday and rain on tournament Monday and Tuesday, but I’m expecting lush fairway conditions and watered greens. The south-westerly wind will reach 15-20mph across Friday to Sunday, so scores in the high-teens will be the target for contention in my opinion.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the RBC Canadian Open / European Open which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Luke Clanton; 2) Jhonattan Vegas; 3) Kevin Dougherty / Patrick Fishburn; 5) Akshay Bhatia; 6) Cameron Champ; 7) Sam Stevens / Erik van Rooyen; 9) Keith Mitchell; 10) Chan Kim; 11) Joe Highsmith; 12) Ryan Brehm / Scott Piercy; 14) Kurt Kitayama / Patrick Rodgers; 16) Matti Schmid; 17) Pierceson Coody / Joel Dahmen / Austin Eckroat; 20) Carson Young; 21) Cam Davis; 22) Kevin Chappell / Max Greyserman / Neal Shipley / Adam Svensson.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Doug Ghim; 2) Tony Finau / Ben Griffin / Matt Wallace; 5) Austin Smotherman; 6) J.J. Spaun; 7) Will Gordon; 8) Emiliano Grillo; 9) Nick Hardy; 10) Tom Hoge / Taylor Pendrith / Greyson Sigg; 13) Luke Clanton; 14) Nick Dunlap / Kevin Yu; 16) Austin Eckroat / Ben Kohles; 18) Keith Mitchell; 19) Andrew Putnam; 20) Zac Blair / Chan Kim; 22) David Skinns; 23) Joel Dahmen; 24) Keegan Bradley / Joseph Bramlett / Matt Kuchar.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Harry Hall / Andrew Putnam; 3) Sam Burns; 4) Cam Davis / Patton Kizzire / Alejandro Tosti; 7) Billy Horschel; 8) Tony Finau / Ryan Moore; 10) Chris Gotterup / Maverick McNealy; 12) Michael Kim; 13) Chan Kim; 14) Jacob Bridgeman; 15) Lee Hodges; 16) J.T. Poston / Brandt Snedeker; 18) Anders Albertson / Mac Meissner; 20) Ben Griffin; 21) Thriston Lawrence; 22) Patrick Rodgers / J.J. Spaun / Michael Thorbjornsen; 25) Adam Svensson.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Chan Kim; 2) Luke Clanton; 3) Doug Ghim / Jhonattan Vegas; 5) Austin Smotherman; 6) Ben Griffin / Keith Mitchell / Neal Shipley; 9) Mac Meissner; 10) Sam Burns / Cam Davis; 12) Taylor Pendrith / Ben Silverman / Matt Wallace / Kevin Yu; 16) Tony Finau / Joe Highsmith / Patton Kizzire; 19) Akshay Bhatia / Nick Dunlap / Kurt Kitayama; 22) Patrick Fishburn; 23) Michael Kim / J.J. Spaun; 25) Harry Hall / Billy Horschel / Sam Stevens.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Pierceson Coody; 2) Tony Finau / Nicholas Lindheim; 4) Sam Burns; 5) Andrew Novak / Chandler Phillips / Patrick Rodgers / Ben Taylor; 9) Mackenzie Hughes / S.H. Kim; 11) Harry Hall; 12) Taylor Pendrith / Alex Smalley; 14) Nate Lashley; 15) Akshay Bhatia / Thriston Lawrence; 17) James Hahn; 18) Seung-yul Noh / Justin Suh; 20) Justin Lower / Taylor Moore; 22) Max Greyserman / J.T. Poston; 24) Seamus Power / Sam Stevens.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Harry Hall; 2) Luke Clanton; 3) Sam Burns / Jhonattan Vegas; 5) Sam Stevens; 6) Akshay Bhatia; 7) Tony Finau / Taylor Pendrith / Patrick Rodgers / Ben Silverman; 11) Thriston Lawrence; 12) Pierceson Coody; 13) Patrick Fishburn / Andrew Novak; 15) Rico Hoey; 16) Nick Dunlap / Max Greyserman / Seung-yul Noh / J.J. Spaun; 20) Chan Kim; 21) Michael Kim; 22) Erik van Rooyen; 23) Keegan Bradley / Joel Dahmen / Billy Horschel / J.T. Poston.
For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at TPC Twin Cities click here.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the 3M Open winners here at TPC Twin Cities gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this northern United States test:
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
2023, Lee Hodges (-24). SG Off the Tee: 27th, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 27th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 4th.
2022, Tony Finau (-17). SG Off the Tee: 3rd, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 2nd, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 42nd.
2021, Cameron Champ (-15). SG Off the Tee: 39th, SG Approach: 19th, SG Around the Green: 48th, SG Tee to Green: 27th, SG Putting: 1st.
2020, Michael Thompson (-19). SG Off the Tee: 51st, SG Approach: 4th, SG Around the Green: 53rd, SG Tee to Green: 17th, SG Putting: 1st.
2019, Matthew Wolff (-21). SG Off the Tee: 21st, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 18th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 39th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
SG Off the Tee: 28th, SG Approach: 6th, SG Around the Green: 24th, SG Tee to Green: 9th, SG Putting: 10th.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winners of the 3M Open back to 2019 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this water very much in-play course:
2023, Lee Hodges (-24). 311 yards (25th), 71.4% fairways (13th), 80.6% greens in regulation (9th), 34’9″ proximity to hole (37th), 78.6 % scrambling (7th), 1.64 putts per GIR (2nd).
2022, Tony Finau (-17). 311 yards (16th), 76.8% fairways (6th), 83.3% greens in regulation (3rd), 32’6″ proximity to hole (10th), 83.3 % scrambling (1st), 1.77 putts per GIR (37th).
2021, Cameron Champ (-15). 318 yards (8th), 58.9% fairways (49th), 75.0% greens in regulation (22nd), 33’7″ proximity to hole (22nd), 77.8 % scrambling (6th), 1.63 putts per GIR (1st).
2020, Michael Thompson (-19). 293 yards (46th), 67.9% fairways (22nd), 83.3% greens in regulation (3rd), 33’3″ proximity to hole (31st), 83.3% scrambling (2nd), 1.72 putts per GIR (20th).
2019, Matthew Wolff (-21). 304 yards (36th), 67.9% fairways (31st), 83.3% greens in regulation (6th), 28’5″ proximity to hole (11th), 50.0% scrambling (62nd), 1.63 putts per GIR (6th).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 26th, Driving Accuracy: 24th, Greens in Regulation: 9th, Proximity to Hole: 22nd, Scrambling: 16th, Putting Average 13th.
Let’s take a view from players as to how TPC Twin Cities sets up and what skill sets the course favours:
Lee Hodges (2023): “I would say it’s a ball-striker’s course, like getting in the fairways and hitting it on the greens. It’s soft out there so you can really attack, like there was a ton of pitch marks right around the holes today because guys were really throwing it at the flag. It should firm up, I would imagine, but yeah, the whole golf course is a ball-striker’s course. And I think I hit it pretty nice, so I’ll take my chances around here.
I’ve got a great attitude out there. Me and my caddie, we’re 70-something on the points list, like what do we have to lose, you know? We’ve committed to every shot we’ve hit so far, which has been great. We’ll continue to do it, because what do we have to lose.”
Tony Finau (2022): “Yeah, I played really nicely. I thought it was pretty tricky. There was enough wind up there to kind of affect every shot, putting and hitting, but I steadied the ship pretty good. I bogeyed the first hole, which is not the start you want on a day where it’s playing kind of tricky, but I was able to hole some putts in the middle of that front nine and kind of get going in the middle of the round. So I held it together really nicely and my ball-striking really came through for me to kind of make the golf course gettable on a day like today.”
“2nd shot on 18, I had 230 over the water. It was a 3-iron. It didn’t come out the way I wanted, it was basically like I was hitting out of the rough. I was at the very end of the first cut, but three to six inches from my golf ball the rough was about this high. So what ended up happening is basically like I was hitting out of the rough. I hit a hard 3-iron, which is about my 250 club, and it barely covered the water. I’ll take that putt after kind of a scare with the second shot.
Cameron Champ (2021): Yeah, I was just in a very good place. My game was trending in the right direction. The previous two days I felt like it was just kind of stress-free golf. Obviously I feel like I left a lot out there, but I knew Sunday if I just played the same way and minimized the mistakes, which I did today, I might have a chance. Obviously coming down today, the course played not as easy as it did Thursday, Friday. Obviously the wind conditions, it kind of started to firm up some and I just dug down and just tried to finish it off.”
Troy Merritt (2021): “You know, as most of the players would tell you, they think a lot of courses suit their eye, but I like bent greens, I always have. I’m not a fan of Bermuda, and obviously we don’t have it up here. Spent plenty of years up here playing on these style of golf courses and hopefully we can use that to our advantage this weekend.”
Michael Thompson (2020): “Putting, really. I really like these greens, I’ve always liked bentgrass greens. Growing up in Arizona, I grew up on kind of slow Bermuda, kind of grainy Bermuda, and so it was a treat to get to play bent. So when I get good greens like this that roll smooth, it feels like the ball is hugging the ground for a long time, I get excited because I know I’m starting it on my line and it’s easier for me to get a good feel. I think I started out the week with confidence in my putting, and I’m going to go do some work in a little bit and maintain that and just kind of keep it rolling.
It is, it is, very much like PGA National this course. You know what shots you have to hit. There’s no if, and or but about it, you’ve just got to step up and hit the shot, execute, and I’m doing that well this week. I’m happy with where I’m at, feel like my game’s really good. It was nice to get those jitters out of the way today and tomorrow, going to go have some fun.”
Matthew Wolff (2019): “This course is gettable, especially with the rain, it’s been softer. I feel like it’s a course that really suits me well, a lot of drivers. Hitting the fairway obviously sets you up in good position to hit a lot of wedges in there, and I think that’s the biggest thing today is I was really dialled in with my wedges, got the distances really spot on.”
Bryson DeChambeau (2019): “Both 18 and 9 are difficult holes.They’re very difficult holes. Look, if you hit in the fairway on 18, it’s a pretty simple hole. If you hit it in the rough, it’s a tough layup and you’ve got to wedge it close to try to make birdie. You’re giving up a shot. No. 9, it’s also a very difficult hole. You’ve got to hit a good drive. If the pin’s over there on the right on nine again, you’re going to have to think about it. It’s a very difficult hole. Just make sure you’re in the fairway, so they’re both difficult.
For sure, I think that there’s a lot of water and a lot of tedious tee shots out here and that’s a pretty good defence. The pins were tucked a couple times today and people are going to make mistakes. Piercy shooting 9 under yesterday just kind of opened the floodgates a little bit, just going, okay, we can do it out here.”
Collin Morikawa (2019): “I think my ball-striking’s kept me in this week and finally was able to make some putts. Yeah, no, I like this course, it fits my eye a lot, it fits my eye off the tee, which is really comfortable and I think that’s the most part. You’ve got to see it from the tee and see it all the way from the last shot that’s going to drop. It’s pretty much stress-free today other than the three-putt. Just hit my lines, hit a lot of good shots and played to my strengths. Ball-striking has been my strength ever since I’ve been a little kid and kept up on that.”
Incoming Form of 3M Open winners since 2019:
Lee Hodges: MC Open/12th Scottish Open/MC Rocket Mortgage/MC Travelers.
Tony Finau: 28th Open/13th Travelers/MC US Open/2nd Canadian Open.
Cameron Champ: 11th John Deere/MC Rocket Mortgage/MC US Open / WD Memorial.
Michael Thompson: MC Workday/64th Rocket Mortgage/46th Travelers/8th Heritage.
Matthew Wolff: MC Rocket Mortgage/MC Travelers/50th TPC Scottsdale.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
5 – Zach Johnson.
3 – Keegan Bradley, Matt Kuchar, Ryan Moore.
2 – Tony Finau, Billy Horschel, Martin Laird, K.H. Lee, Troy Merritt, Jhonattan Vegas.
1 – Daniel Berger, Sam Burns, Cameron Champ, Stewart Cink, Bill Haas, Harry Hall, Charley Hoffman, Lee Hodges, Michael Kim, Kevin Kisner, Vincent Norrman, Sean O’Hair, Taylor Pendrith. J.T. Poston, Seamus Power, Chez Reavie, Davis Riley, Brandt Snedeker, Kevin Streelman, Nick Watney.
We’ve now seen 5 renewals here at TPC Twin Cities. 2019 saw Matthew Wolff deliver his first PGA Tour win at the age of 20 in only his 4th PGA Tour start. His win came off incoming form of MC/MC since becoming a professional at the Travelers Championship only 2 weeks earlier and he won at a rather tasty 175/1 best price. 2020 saw Michael Thompson win at 125/1. His inbound form read MC/64/46/8, with the top 8 finish coming at Harbour Town 4 appearances back.
2021 saw Cameron Champ win. More in the mould of a Matthew Wolff, a stellar driving distance golfer, Champ was more obvious than the previous 2 winners. 11th last time out at the John Deere Classic had seen Cameron in 3rd spot heading into Sunday. He landed the 3M Open at 150/1. 2022 saw Tony Finau fly to Minnesota direct from St Andrews after finishing 28th at the Open Championship. His form read 28/13/MC/2/4 with the runner-up finish coming at the RBC Canadian Open. With only 2 PGA Tour wins to his name, Tony was the 14/1 favourite which was a tough price to swallow pre-event for many. And last year saw 90/1 shot Lee Hodges claim his maiden PGA Tour win by the mere matter of 7 shots. Flying back early from a Missed Cut at the Hoylake-hosted Open Championship, Hodges had flashed at the Genesis Scottish Open prior to that in Scotland, where he had finished 12th.
It’s relatively early days in terms of being able to correlate courses to TPC Twin Cities and building your preferences solely on some tenuous links would be ill-advised, but it’s worth remembering that we are in the north of the United States. Matthew Wolff since his win has popped up in Detroit (Michigan) at the Rocket Mortgage Classic birdiefest where he shot -20/268 to finish 2nd behind Bryson DeChambeau. DeChambeau of course finished runner-up here in 2019 when we were on-board at 16/1, tied in fact with Collin Morikawa. Now Bryson and Collin are both Muirfield Village winners, with Bryson also winning his first ever PGA Tour title at Deere Run in 2017. Collin went on to finish 4th at Deere Run the week after his runner-up finish here at TPC Twin Cities, and was T2 at Detroit in 2023. Another player you can throw into this mix is Adam Hadwin. 4th and 6th here at the 3M Open, he has also finished 4th (2020) and 2nd (2023) in Detroit. The Canadian has always been the sort who likes low scoring so 8th at Deere Run (2016) plus 4th (2019) and 6th (2021) at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas is also interesting, especially on the basis that Bryson DeChambeau won the 2018 Shriners Open and has another 3 top-8 finishes there in the Las Vegas desert suburbs.
How does this translate to Michael Thompson? Well you have to dig a little with the Arizona man, but Michael does have 8th and 14th place finishes at Muirfield Village. 12th at Deere Run fits and there is also a 13th place finish at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas. It’s not emboldened correlating form, but it’s there. Michael also has a top 10 finish at Colonial on his CV, which again fits nicely with Morikawa (2nd 2020), DeChambeau (3rd 2020) and Adam Hadwin (5th 2015, 8th 2021).
Cameron Champ was 11th at Deere Run the outing before he won this and had also finished 12th at the 2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic emboldening that correlating course line of enquiry, especially as he was also 2nd at Detroit Golf Club in 2019 going into the weekend. 14th at Colonial (2020) also links very nicely.
Tony Finau reinforces plenty of these correlating course links as well. Tony went on to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit the week after winning the 3M Open. 2nd (2019) and 4th (2022) at Colonial is spot-on form, as are a couple of top-10 finishes at both Muirfield Village and TPC Summerlin.
Lee Hodges’ results also translate to a level. 12th at Muirfield Village last year was prior to his 3M Open victory. 44th on his first visit to Detroit in 2022 had seen him sit 3rd heading into the weekend. 27th (2022) at TPC Summerlin saw Lee 15th heading into Sunday, and since his win here in Minnesota the Alabama man has gone on to finish 12th this year at Colonial Country Club.
Sam Burns is trending for a much needed PGA Tour victory. Yes he won the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club last year, taking advantage of his best friend Scottie Scheffler inexplicably missing a 3 foot putt on the 20th hole (2nd of extra-time) for victory in their Semi-Final. But World Number 30 Burns hasn’t won a stroke play event since the 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club and we know he tends to win on medium length to long courses and prefers easier scoring tests, with 3 of his 4 stroke play victories coming at -17, -17 and -22.
Undoubtedly Bermudagrass positive, Sam has also racked up wins and strong finishes on Bentgrass greens. His aforementioned Colonial win were on them and you can add 6th (2023) at Colonial, 2nd (2021) at TPC Craig Ranch, 4th (2022) at St George’s G&CC plus 7th here at TPC Twin Cities on his debut here in 2019, when he was 2nd after 36 holes. That was very much in Sam’s early career, 18 months prior to his first win at the 2021 Valspar Championship.
Primed and motivated to win as he currently sits outside the top 12 for Team USA President’s Cup qualification, I love his chances just a week after going out in the 2nd from last Sunday group at Royal Troon, where he was 8th for Strokes Gained Putting. Ranks in this field across my 8-week Strokes Gained Tracker top 10 for Tee to Green, top 5 for Putting and top 3 for Current Form.
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Erik van Rooyen 1.5pts EW 40/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
Erik van Rooyen has a lot of local links. EVR went to college in Minnesota, and it’s where he met his wife whose family are from the area. He’s been known to use Minnesota as a training base and there have been undoubted seeds of improvement of late. 4th at the Myrtle Beach Classic plus 6th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic within his past 6 appearances, Erik will be disappointed with a closing 74 at the Genesis Scottish Open last time out, where he fell from 8th on the leaderboard to 39th by the close when within touching distance on an Open Championship late entry.
Despite that, 4 top-8 finishes this season on the PGA Tour highlight that van Rooyen has had a decent campaign in the United States and even better he’s still within striking distance of forcing his way into Mike Weir’s President’s Cup International team. He just needs to deliver and there would be nowhere more apt then here at TPC Twin Cities this week.
12th for Tee to Green at the Renaissance, if he can putt like he did at the Rocket Mortgage Classic where he ranked 7th for Strokes Gained Putting, Erik should be more than capable of challenging in this depth of field.
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Adam Hadwin 1.5pts EW 50/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports
The Presidents Cup is approaching with the BMW Championship in just 4 weeks time being the cut-off for selection. Adam Hadwin currently sits in 11th spot for qualification for the International Team and could undoubtedly do with a top finish on the PGA Tour to take a little of the pressure off as players of the ilk of Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Si Woo Kim, Taylor Pendrith and Ryan Fox loom large in the rear view mirror. TPC Twin Cities could just be the right course and precisely the right time for a player who was 3rd as recently as The Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village in early June.
Fact is that Adam really is a horse for a course. A true low scoring specialist – within this field he ranks in the top 4 in our stats for low scoring affairs, which I think this could be if scoring touches the high teens under par. 4th (2020) and 2nd (2023) at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, he’s also finished 10th (2014), 4th (2019) 6th (2021), 10th (2022) and 2nd (2023) at TPC Summerlin. 5th (2015) and 8th (2021) at Colonial, the 36 year-old has also finished 4th (2019) and 6th (2021) here at TPC Twin Cities. Bentgrass or Bent/Poa Annua mix putting surfaces tend to be to his liking.
So relatively under the radar this week, I can see Hadwin contending and potentially adding to his single PGA Tour win that he achieved back at the 2017 Valspar Championship.
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Patton Kizzire 1pt EW 125/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
Patton Kizzire at 135th in the FedEx Cup standings has different priorities, but we have seen both Michael Thompson and Cameron Champ win the 3M Open from outside of the top 125.
Patton is a 2-time winner on the PGA Tour, and has always been the sort who goes well in tournaments where making birdies is the key. His wins came at -19/265 (2017 OHL Classic) and -17/263 (2018 Sony Open) and for me TPC Twin Cities where he’s made 4 cuts from 5 appearances should suit very nicely this week. 9th here after 36 holes in 2022 where he eventually finished 38th, Patton’s play in 2024 is far and away better than is was 2 years ago.
10th (Myrtle Beach Classic), 20th (Rocket Mortgage Classic) and 8th (Barracuda Championship across his past 6 appearances highlights a player on the ascendancy and in this field, he ranks in the top 20 across my 8-week Strokes Gained Tee to Green tracker. Scored 13 points on Sunday at the Barracuda which was T8 for Final Round Scoring and Patton has always been the sort to link contending top 10 performances together when confident.
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