You can read Liam Williams’ Power Rankings for the 3M Open at bet365 News.
Course Guide: The 3M Championship had been an established tournament on the PGA Champions Tour going back to 1993, before it was promoted to the PGA Tour in 2019. Played in the northern suburbs of Minneapolis at TPC Twin Cities, this was always a tournament which produced very low scores. A 7,114 yard Par 72 was the format for the Seniors, and winning scores of -19/197 (2016 – Joe Durant), -20/196 (2017 – Paul Goydos) and -21/195 (2018 – Kenny Perry) show that this course was very much there for the taking.
After Kenny Perry lifted the trophy in August 2018, a Tom Lehman and Tim Herron-led course renovation started on this original Arnold Palmer design, with the focus of adding distance which they achieved by adding 350 yards. However across its PGA Tour schedule spot, winning scores of -15/269 to -24/260 highlight a Mid-Score to Resort level scoring golf course dependant on strength of wind and turf conditions.
TPC Twin Cities, Blaine, Minnesota: Designer: Arnold Palmer, 2000 with Herron and Lehman renovation, 2018; Course Type: Mid-Score, Medium Length; Par: 71; Length: 7,431 yards; Number of Holes with Water In-Play: 15; Number of Sand Bunkers: 72; Acres of Fairway: 28; Fairways: Bentgrass; Rough: Bluegrass with Fescue 4″; Greens: 6,500 sq.ft average featuring Bentgrass; Tournament Stimp: 12ft.
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for TPC Twin Cities and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
- TPC Twin Cities: 36 yards at 300 yards.
- Corales GC: 75 yards at 300 yards.
- Hurstbourne CC: 25-30 yards at 300 yards
- TPC Deere Run: 36 yards at 300 yards.
- TPC River Highlands: 29 yards at 300 yards.
- Shinnecock Hills: 45 yards at 300 yards.
- TPC Toronto: 35-37 yards at 300 yards.
- Muirfield Village: 24 yards at 300 yards.
- Colonial: 25-30 yards at 300 yards.
- TPC Craig Ranch: 25-28 yards.
- Aronimink: 30 yards.
- Quail Hollow: 28 yards.
- Blue Monster, Doral: 25-40 yards.
- Harbour Town: 22-25 yards.
- Augusta National: Average 50 yards.
- Oaks Course: 25-30 yards.
- Memorial Park: 30–40 yards.
- Copperhead: Average 20 yards.
- TPC Sawgrass: Average 28 yards.
- Bay Hill: Average 30 yards.
- PGA National: Average 28 yards.
- Riviera: Average 27 yards.
- Pebble Beach: Average 30-33 yards. Spyglass Hill: 25-30 yards.
- TPC Scottsdale: Average 38 yards.
- Torrey Pines South: Average 24-27 yards. Torrey Pines North: Average 24-27 yards.
- Pete Dye Stadium: Average 33 yards.
Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:
- 2025: 68.84 (-2.16), Rank 41 of 50 courses
- 2024: 70.39 (-0.61), Rank 16 of 51 courses
- 2023: 69.71 (-1.29), Rank 36 of 50 courses
- 2022: 71.44 (+0.44) Rank 14 of 50 courses
- 2021: 70.44 (-0.56), Rank 24 of 51 courses
- 2020: 69.95 (-1.05), Rank 23 of 41 courses
- 2019: 69.46 (-2.54), Rank 36 of 49 courses
Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Arnold Palmer designs include:
- Albany – 2015 – 2023 Hero World Challenge
- Bay Hill Country Club – Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Isleworth Golf & Country Club – 2014 Hero World Challenge
- PGA West – Palmer Private – Host Course 2008 through 2015 Career Builder Challenge
- TPC Boston – Dell Technologies Championship
Course Overview: TPC Twin Cities is part of the Tournament Players Club group of courses owned by the PGA Tour. Apart from the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass, which naturally is the PGA Tour’s Number 1 tournament, TPC Designs tend to be quite standard and gettable. Built and operated in the main for amateur players who want to be able to play courses they see the top professionals play on TV, the course set-ups tend to be resort like in general, unless the wind blows.
And so it has proved more or less over the past 7 years. Despite course strengthening, TPC Twin Cities proved to be a total birdie-fest on its inaugural outing and in 2020 with a couple of days with gusting 25 mph wind to contend with, the winning total was -19/265. 2021 saw a -15/269 winning total with faster greens and a nagging 15mph westerly in play all week, with Tony Finau winning at -17/267 in 2022 which saw +25mph winds on Thursday, with rain during Saturday producing a soft scoreable course where 4 players shot -7/64. Lee Hodges won in 2024 at -24/260 winning by 7 shots, with middling to light winds and a soft course from a Friday downpour. 2024 saw Jhonattan Vegas win at more of a mid-score -17/267 with 25 mph gusting winds for the final 54 holes. 2025 we were back to a -23/261 winning total with soft ground conditions throughout and strong winds only on Sunday.
The course is wide from the tee, and despite fairways being tree-lined this is no classical layout. In fact the course sees water used as a defence on a majority of holes, giving the course almost a Florida-type look to it. I’ll add a couple of other facts. The course features pure Bentgrass green complexes, and at 900 feet in altitude the ball flies a little further than the professionals are used to. With the calculations required, this is something that some players can work through with no issues, but undoubtedly some struggle with trusting the mathematics.
An original Arnold Palmer design, the course post-Herron/Lehman renovation now plays as a 7,431 yard Par 71, which with thinner air is short enough to take apart. Green complexes are large at an average 6,500 square feet, especially when compared to recent Tour stop-offs. With 3 par-5s measuring 594 yards (6th), 593 yards (12th) and 596 yards (18th) in length, the longest holes on the course show some resistance here, but both sets of par-3s and par-4s are easy from a PGA Tour scoring perspective.
3M Open Winners: 2025: Kurt Kitayama (-23); 2024: Jhonattan Vegas (-17); 2023: Lee Hodges (-24); 2022: Tony Finau (-17); 2021: Cameron Champ (-15); 2020: Michael Thompson (-19); 2019: Matthew Wolff (-21).
- 2025: Kurt Kitayama 65-71-60-65 -17/267 AM/PM Wave
- 2024: Jhonattan Vegas 68-66-63-70 -17/267 PM/AM Wave
- 2023: Lee Hodges 63-64-66-67 -24/260 AM/PM Wave
- 2022: Tony Finau 67-68-65-67 -17/267 PM/AM Wave
- 2021: Cameron Champ 69-67-67-66 -15/269 AM/PM Wave
- 2020: Michael Thompson 64-66-68-67 -19/265 PM/AM Wave
- 2019: Matthew Wolff 69-67-62-65 -21/263 AM/PM Wave
OWGR of 3M Open Winners: 2025: Kitayama 97; 2024: Vegas 321; 2023: Hodges 110; 2022: Finau 17; 2021: Champ 123; 2020: Thompson 208; 2019: Wolff 1659.
Datagolf Ranking 3M Open Winners: 2025: Kitayama 64; 2024: Vegas 136; 2023: Hodges 94; 2022: Finau 12; 2021: Champ 244.
3M Open Cut Line: 2025: -5; 2024: -2; 2023: -4; 2022: +1; 2021: -2; 2020: -2; 2019: -3.
Lead Score Progression:
- 2025: Round 1 -11; Round 2 -14; Round 3 -18; Round 4 -23.
- 2024: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -16; Round 4 -17.
- 2023: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -15; Round 3 -20; Round 4 -24.
- 2022: Round 1 -6; Round 2 -13; Round 3 -18; Round 4 -17.
- 2021: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -10; Round 3 -12; Round 4 -15.
- 2020: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -15; Round 4 -19.
- 2019: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -14; Round 3 -15; Round 4 -21.
Path to Victory: Below are the round positions for the winners of the 3M Open since 2019:
- 2025 – Kurt Kitayama: Round 1: 11th, Round 2: 44th, Round 3: 3rd.
- 2024 – Jhonattan Vegas: Round 1: 24th, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 1st.
- 2023 – Lee Hodges: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
- 2022 – Tony Finau: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 3rd.
- 2021 – Cameron Champ: Round 1: 38th, Round 2: 19th, Round 3: 4th.
- 2020 – Michael Thompson: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
- 2019 – Matthew Wolff: Round 1: 49th, Round 2: 35th, Round 3: 1st.
Shots From the Lead: Below are the 3M Open winners since 2019 and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
- 2025 – Kurt Kitayama: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 8 back, Round 3: 1 back.
- 2024 – Jhonattan Vegas: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
- 2023 – Lee Hodges: Round 1: 1 ahead, Round 2: 4 ahead, Round 3: 5 ahead.
- 2022 – Tony Finau: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 6 back, Round 3: 5 back.
- 2021 – Cameron Champ: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 2 back.
- 2020 – Michael Thompson: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: level.
- 2019 – Matthew Wolff: Round 1: 7 back, Round 2: 8 back, Round 3: level.
Tournament Form of 3M Open winners since 2019:
- Kurt Kitayama: 14th Barracuda/5th JDC/51st Rocket/MC Canada.
- Jhonattan Vegas: 20th JDC/25th Rocket/27th Canada/MC Byron.
- Lee Hodges: MC Open/12th Scottish Open/MC Rocket Mortgage/MC Travelers.
- Tony Finau: 28th Open/13th Travelers/MC US Open/2nd Canada.
- Cameron Champ: 11th JDC/MC Rocket/MC US Open/WD Memorial.
- Michael Thompson: MC Workday/64th Rocket/46th Travelers/8th Heritage.
- Matthew Wolff: MC Rocket/MC Travelers/50th TPC Scottsdale.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Keith Mitchell; 3) Kurt Kitayama; 4) Johnny Keefer, 5) Pierceson Coody; 6) Tom Kim; 7) Max Homa; 8) Jordan Smith; 9) Ben Kohles; 10) Doug Ghim.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
3M Open Winning Prices: 2025: Kitayama 40/1; 2024: Vegas 80/1; 2023: Hodges 90/1; 2022: Finau 14/1F; 2021: Champ 150/1; 2020: Thompson 125/1; 2019: Wolff 175/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 75/1; Average: 96/1.
Historical Weather:
- 2025: Thursday: Partly sunny. High of 83. Wind NNW 5-10 mph. Preferred lies were in effect for round one. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 85. Wind SSE 6-12 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 89. Wind SSW 10-15 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 92. Wind S 10-15 mph with intermittent gusts to 30 mph.
- 2024: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 82. Wind SE 8-12 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 86. Wind S 10-16 mph, with gusts to 24 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 90. Wind SSW 12-18 mph, with gusts to 28 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 89. Wind S 10-16 mph, with gusts to 24 mph.
- 2023: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 89. Wind NE 8-12 mph, gusting to 18 mph. Due to inclement weather, round one was suspended for the day Thursday at 6:59 p.m. CT with 21 players having not completed their round. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 89. Wind NE 8-12 mph, gusting to 18 mph. Play was suspended at 4:23 p.m. due to dangerous weather. The second round resumed at 6:20 p.m., a delay of 1 hour, 57. Play was suspended for the day at 8:53 p.m. due to darkness with six players to complete their round. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 82. Wind NW 8-14 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 80. Wind NNW 6-12 mph, gusting to 15 mph.
- 2022: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 86. Wind NW 12-17 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 92. Wind WSW 12-16 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Saturday: With the threat of severe weather, third-round tee times featured threesomes off tee Nos. 1 and 10 from 6:50 – 9:02 a.m. CT. Due to inclement weather, the third round was suspended from 10:57 am until 5:35 p.m. (6 hours, 38 minutes). High of 85. Wind ESE 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. 15mm rain. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 78. Wind NW 15-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph.
- 2021: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 88. Wind S 6-12 mph, with gusts to 17 mph. Due to inclement weather, round one was suspended from 11:28 a.m. to 1:52 p.m. (2 hours, 24 minutes). Play was suspended due to darkness at 8:54 p.m., with 11 players yet to complete their round. Friday: Mostly cloudy. High of 93. Wind SSW 10-15 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 90. Wind NW 10-15 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 92. Wind WNW 10-15 mph.
- 2020: Thursday: Due to fog, the start to round one was delayed by 19 minutes and began at 7:09 a.m. CT. Mostly sunny with a high of 81. SE wind 8-15 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 88. Wind S 13-18 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Saturday: Cloudy with scattered showers. High of 89. Wind S 14-20 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Sunday: Due to early morning storms, the original one-tee start at 7:20 a.m. was changed to a split tee start from 9:59 a.m. – noon. Mostly cloudy. High of 82. Wind NW 7-14 mph.
- 2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 83. Wind N 8-15 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 87. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 90. Wind SW 6-12 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 92. Wind S/SSW 6-12 mph.
Weather Forecast: Latest weather forecast for Blaine, Minnesota is here.
Hot temperatures – 30-38 degrees Celsius – 86-93 Fahrenheit – with sunshine is the summary for the 3M Open this week. This part of Minnesota has received less rain than last year in the build-up, so I’m expecting faster fairway conditions and the standard watered greens. Nagging winds akin to Birkdale last week are in play with Friday looking slightly calmer. Expect 15-20 south-westerly and southerly winds across the other 3 days of play.
Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Charles Schwab Challenge / Austrian Alpine Open which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
- Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Matthieu Pavon; 2) Jesper Svensson; 3) Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen; 4) Keith Mitchell; 5) Michael Brennan / Doug Ghim; 7) Patrick Fishburn / Tony Finau / Kevin Yu / Marcelo Rozo; 11) Scottie Scheffler; 12) Neal Shipley; 13) Steven Fisk / Luke List; 15) Jason Day / Haotong Li / Jordan Smith; 18) Jimmy Stanger; 19) Will Gordon; 20) Rico Hoey / Kris Ventura; 22) Gary Woodland; 23) Jackson Koivun / Aldrich Potgieter; 25) Cameron Champ.
- Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Stefano Mazzoli; 2) Tom Kim; 3) Tyler Duncan; 4) Billy Horschel;5) Ben Kohles; 6) Zac Blair; 7) Joel Dahmen; 8) Lucas Glover; 9) Scottie Scheffler / Austin Smotherman; 11) Tom Hoge / Johnny Keefer; 13) Aaron Wise; 14) Zach Bauchou / William Mouw / Kevin Yu; 17) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 18) Keith Mitchell; 19) Corey Conners / A.J. Ewart; 21) Hideki Matsuyama / Paul Peterson; 23) Max McGreevy; 24) Ben James / Jackson Suber.
- Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Ryder Cowan; 2) Jason Day; 3) Takumi Kanaya / Gordon Sargent / Brandt Snedeker; 6) Adrien Dumont de Chassart; 7) Matt Kuchar; 8) Hideki Matsuyama; 9) Ricky Castillo / Mark Hubbard / Mackenzie Hughes; 12) Taylor Pendrith / Scottie Scheffler; 14) Fabian Gomez / Kurt Kitayama; 16) Vince Whaley; 17) Troy Merritt / Jackson Suber; 19) Seung-yul Noh / Karl Vilips; 21) Cam Davis / Sungjae Im; 23) Lucas Glover / Peter Malnati; 25) Stephan Jaeger / Maverick McNealy / Chandler Phillips.
- Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Ryder Cowan; 3) Joel Dahmen / Kevin Yu; 5) Doug Ghim / Ben Kohles; 7) Lucas Glover; 8) Tyler Duncan / Tom Kim / Hideki Matsuyama; 11) Kurt Kitayama / Aaron Wise; 13) Casey Jarvis; 14) Ben James; 15) William Mouw; 16) Will Gordon; 17) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Corey Conners / Johnny Keefer / Stefano Mazzoli; 21) Rico Hoey; 22) Michael Brennan; 23) Zac Blair / Max Homa / Billy Horschel.
- Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Matt Kuchar; 2) Troy Merritt; 3) Erik van Rooyen; 4) Max Homa; 5) Emiliano Grillo / Davis Riley; 7) A.J. Ewart / Maverick McNealy / Keita Nakajima; 10) Davis Chatfield / Garrick Higgo / Mackenzie Hughes; 13) Zac Blair / Peter Malnati / Kris Ventura; 16) Mac Meissner; 17) Aaron Wise; 18) Ben Silverman / Gary Woodland; 20) Austin Eckroat / Andrew Putnam; 22) Patrick Rodgers / Sudarshan Yellamaraju; 24) Tony Finau / Denny McCarthy.
- Top 25 SG Total: 1) Scottie Scheffler / Aaron Wise; 3) Matt Kuchar; 4) Max Homa; 5) Ryder Cowan; 6) Kevin Yu; 7) Emiliano Grillo; 8) Zac Blair; 9) Doug Ghim / Ben Kohles; 11) Ben James; 12) Jackson Suber; 13) Tom Kim; 14) Kurt Kitayama / Hideki Matsuyama / Keita Nakajima; 17) Mackenzie Hughes; 18) Mac Meissner / Jordan Smith; 20) A.J. Ewart; 21) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Will Gordon / Casey Jarvis / Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen; 25) Corey Conners / Johnny Keefer / Max McGreevy.
For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at TPC Twin Cities click here.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the 3M Open winners here at TPC Twin Cities gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this northern United States test:
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
- 2025, Kurt Kitayama (-23). SG Off the Tee: 23rd, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 11th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 37th.
- 2024, Jhonattan Vegas (-17). SG Off the Tee: 9th, SG Approach: 8th, SG Around the Green: 53rd, SG Tee to Green: 7th, SG Putting: 8th.
- 2023, Lee Hodges (-24). SG Off the Tee: 27th, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 27th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 4th.
- 2022, Tony Finau (-17). SG Off the Tee: 3rd, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 2nd, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 42nd.
- 2021, Cameron Champ (-15). SG Off the Tee: 39th, SG Approach: 19th, SG Around the Green: 48th, SG Tee to Green: 27th, SG Putting: 1st.
- 2020, Michael Thompson (-19). SG Off the Tee: 51st, SG Approach: 4th, SG Around the Green: 53rd, SG Tee to Green: 17th, SG Putting: 1st.
- 2019, Matthew Wolff (-21). SG Off the Tee: 21st, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 18th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 39th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
- SG Off the Tee: 25th, SG Approach: 5th, SG Around the Green: 30th, SG Tee to Green: 8th, SG Putting: 19th.
Across the 2021 to 2025 3M Open renewals, statistically from a Stroke Gained perspective the winners gained on average 2.77 strokes per round from Tee to Green (72%) and 1.06 Putting (28%). With 1.84 strokes per round gained on Approach, this is the highest number of any course so far in 2026. Tie that in with 0.61 of a stroke per round gained Off the Tee and with Strokes Gained Ball-Striking at 64% – that’s second only to Pebble Beach so far this golf betting year.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winners of the 3M Open back to 2019 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this water very much in-play course:
- 2025, Kurt Kitayama (-23). 315 yards (13th), 60.7% fairways (56th), 83.3% greens in regulation (7th), 58.3 % scrambling (44th), 1.62 putts per GIR (7th).
- 2024, Jhonattan Vegas (-17). 309 yards (7th), 71.4% fairways (12th), 79.2% greens in regulation (7th), 46.7 % scrambling (69th), 1.60 putts per GIR (1st).
- 2023, Lee Hodges (-24). 311 yards (25th), 71.4% fairways (13th), 80.6% greens in regulation (9th), 78.6 % scrambling (7th), 1.64 putts per GIR (2nd).
- 2022, Tony Finau (-17). 311 yards (16th), 76.8% fairways (6th), 83.3% greens in regulation (3rd), (10th), 83.3 % scrambling (1st), 1.77 putts per GIR (37th).
- 2021, Cameron Champ (-15). 318 yards (8th), 58.9% fairways (49th), 75.0% greens in regulation (22nd), 77.8 % scrambling (6th), 1.63 putts per GIR (1st).
- 2020, Michael Thompson (-19). 293 yards (46th), 67.9% fairways (22nd), 83.3% greens in regulation (3rd), 83.3% scrambling (2nd), 1.72 putts per GIR (20th).
- 2019, Matthew Wolff (-21). 304 yards (36th), 67.9% fairways (31st), 83.3% greens in regulation (6th), 50.0% scrambling (62nd), 1.63 putts per GIR (6th).
Tournament Skill Averages:
- Driving Distance: 22nd, Driving Accuracy: 27th, Greens in Regulation: 8th, Scrambling: 27th, Putting Average 11th.
Let’s take a view from players as to how TPC Twin Cities sets up and what skill sets the course favours:
Kurt Kitayama (2025): “Working with my coach, Chris Como. He’s really improved my driving. I feel like I’m hitting it straighter and just more comfortable pulling out driver on holes I would never have hit driver on and I think that’s been the key.
Well, 18 yesterday, I just didn’t have the lie to go for it. Going for it to try to shoot 59 or lay up and try and make birdie and keep myself in the tournament was kind of the ultimate decision there. And then today being in the fairway straight downwind to try and take water out of play, I knew what I needed to do to win, so took a little extra club there to make sure I took the water out of play.
Yeah, there was some rain earlier this week so we knew it was soft. I think early on this week you could be more aggressive at pins because if you were in the rough, you had enough — it was soft enough where you could be short sided and still get it up and down. And like today we tried to be a little more strategic, play a little more on the safer side. That’s kind of what you go through in the practice round, you notice how thick the rough is, where you can be, where you can miss it. That’s kind of the preparation that goes in.”
Jhonattan Vegas (2024): “This is a golf course where you have to drive it well. If you can drive it well out here, you can give yourself a lot of good chances. I drove it really well that year, had a great chance to win coming down to the last and kind of left with a sour mouth. So like I said, it’s a place that I like, that it fits my game and I’m going to try to keep coming back.
My mindset tomorrow – it’s all going to depend on the weather, right? If it stays like this where it’s blowing hard, then you’ve got to put a game plan together where it’s not as aggressive and you’ve got to manage the game a little bit better. We’ll see what the weather gives us and we’ll go from there.
Yeah, I made a change of putters the week of Detroit a few weeks ago and started seeing the ball roll really good. Yeah, it’s been giving me a lot of confidence and I made some really key putts today, which it was massive to keep the round from going the other way. But that’s the kind of stuff that you have to do to win, so glad it worked.”
Max Greyserman (2024): “Once Jhonattan hit the fairway on 18, that was kind of a big moment because if you hit the fairway on 18, that really opens up your opportunity to make a birdie because it’s playing straight downwind. He probably only hit 6- or 7-iron in there into a pretty wide green. I knew at that point that it wasn’t looking good when he hit the fairway, but before that I thought I had a good opportunity for a playoff.”
Lee Hodges (2023): “I would say it’s a ball-striker’s course, like getting in the fairways and hitting it on the greens. It’s soft out there so you can really attack, like there was a ton of pitch marks right around the holes today because guys were really throwing it at the flag. It should firm up, I would imagine, but yeah, the whole golf course is a ball-striker’s course. And I think I hit it pretty nice, so I’ll take my chances around here.
I’ve got a great attitude out there. Me and my caddie, we’re 70-something on the points list, like what do we have to lose, you know? We’ve committed to every shot we’ve hit so far, which has been great. We’ll continue to do it, because what do we have to lose.”
Tony Finau (2022): “Yeah, I played really nicely. I thought it was pretty tricky. There was enough wind up there to kind of affect every shot, putting and hitting, but I steadied the ship pretty good. I bogeyed the first hole, which is not the start you want on a day where it’s playing kind of tricky, but I was able to hole some putts in the middle of that front nine and kind of get going in the middle of the round. So I held it together really nicely and my ball-striking really came through for me to kind of make the golf course gettable on a day like today.”
“2nd shot on 18, I had 230 over the water. It was a 3-iron. It didn’t come out the way I wanted, it was basically like I was hitting out of the rough. I was at the very end of the first cut, but three to six inches from my golf ball the rough was about this high. So what ended up happening is basically like I was hitting out of the rough. I hit a hard 3-iron, which is about my 250 club, and it barely covered the water. I’ll take that putt after kind of a scare with the second shot.
Cameron Champ (2021): “Yeah, I was just in a very good place. My game was trending in the right direction. The previous two days I felt like it was just kind of stress-free golf. Obviously I feel like I left a lot out there, but I knew Sunday if I just played the same way and minimized the mistakes, which I did today, I might have a chance. Obviously coming down today, the course played not as easy as it did Thursday, Friday. Obviously the wind conditions, it kind of started to firm up some and I just dug down and just tried to finish it off.”
Troy Merritt (2021): “You know, as most of the players would tell you, they think a lot of courses suit their eye, but I like bent greens, I always have. I’m not a fan of Bermuda, and obviously we don’t have it up here. Spent plenty of years up here playing on these style of golf courses and hopefully we can use that to our advantage this weekend.”
Michael Thompson (2020): “Putting, really. I really like these greens, I’ve always liked bentgrass greens. Growing up in Arizona, I grew up on kind of slow Bermuda, kind of grainy Bermuda, and so it was a treat to get to play bent. So when I get good greens like this that roll smooth, it feels like the ball is hugging the ground for a long time, I get excited because I know I’m starting it on my line and it’s easier for me to get a good feel. I think I started out the week with confidence in my putting, and I’m going to go do some work in a little bit and maintain that and just kind of keep it rolling.
It is, it is, very much like PGA National this course. You know what shots you have to hit. There’s no if, and or but about it, you’ve just got to step up and hit the shot, execute, and I’m doing that well this week. I’m happy with where I’m at, feel like my game’s really good. It was nice to get those jitters out of the way today and tomorrow, going to go have some fun.”
Matthew Wolff (2019): “This course is gettable, especially with the rain, it’s been softer. I feel like it’s a course that really suits me well, a lot of drivers. Hitting the fairway obviously sets you up in good position to hit a lot of wedges in there, and I think that’s the biggest thing today is I was really dialled in with my wedges, got the distances really spot on.”
Bryson DeChambeau (2019): “Both 18 and 9 are difficult holes. They’re very difficult holes. Look, if you hit in the fairway on 18, it’s a pretty simple hole. If you hit it in the rough, it’s a tough layup and you’ve got to wedge it close to try to make birdie. You’re giving up a shot. No. 9, it’s also a very difficult hole. You’ve got to hit a good drive. If the pin’s over there on the right on nine again, you’re going to have to think about it. It’s a very difficult hole. Just make sure you’re in the fairway, so they’re both difficult.
For sure, I think that there’s a lot of water and a lot of tedious tee shots out here and that’s a pretty good defence. The pins were tucked a couple times today and people are going to make mistakes. Piercy shooting 9 under yesterday just kind of opened the floodgates a little bit, just going, okay, we can do it out here.”
Collin Morikawa (2019): “I think my ball-striking’s kept me in this week and finally was able to make some putts. Yeah, no, I like this course, it fits my eye a lot, it fits my eye off the tee, which is really comfortable and I think that’s the most part. You’ve got to see it from the tee and see it all the way from the last shot that’s going to drop. It’s pretty much stress-free today other than the three-putt. Just hit my lines, hit a lot of good shots and played to my strengths. Ball-striking has been my strength ever since I’ve been a little kid and kept up on that.”
First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.
- 2025 – A Svensson – AM -11/60 – 150/1.
- 2024 – Bridgeman – AM -8/63 – 150/1.
- 2023 – Hodges – AM -8/63 – 70/1.
- 2022 – Im/Piercy – Both AM – -6/65 – 33/1 & 100/1.
- 2021 – Fowler/Merritt/Sloan/Vegas -2AM/2PM Split -7/64 – 66/1, 90/1, 100/1 & 66/1.
- 2020 – Werenski – PM -8/63 – 90/1.
- 2019 – Piercy – PM -9/62 – 66/1.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
- 6 – Scottie Scheffler.
- 5 – Jason Day.
- 4 – Hideki Matsuyama.
- 3 – Lucas Glover, Matt Kuchar.
- 2 – Tony Finau, Brian Harman, Billy Horschel, Tom Kim, Chris Kirk, Troy Merritt.
- 1 – Michael Brennan, Brian Campbell, Cameron Champ, Steven Fisk, Emiliano Grillo, Lee Hodges, Max Homa, Sungjae Im, Michael Kim, Kurt Kitayama, Ben Martin, William Mouw, Taylor Pendrith, Seamus Power, Davis Riley, Brandt Snedeker, Kevin Streelman, Davis Thompson, Camilo Villegas.
We have now seen 7 renewals here. 2019 saw Matthew Wolff deliver his first PGA Tour win at the age of 20 in only his 4th PGA Tour start. His win came off incoming form of MC/MC since becoming a professional at the Travelers Championship only 2 weeks earlier, and he won at a rather tasty 175/1 best price. 2020 saw Michael Thompson win at 125/1. His inbound form read MC/64/46/8, with the top 8 finish coming at Harbour Town 4 appearances back.
2021 saw Cameron Champ win. More in the mould of a Matthew Wolff, a stellar driving distance golfer, Champ was more obvious than the previous 2 winners. 11th last time out at the John Deere Classic had seen Cameron in 3rd spot heading into Sunday. He landed the 3M Open at 150/1.
2022 saw Tony Finau fly to Minnesota direct from St Andrews after finishing 28th at the Open Championship. His form read 28/13/MC/2/4 with the runner-up finish coming at the RBC Canadian Open. With only 2 PGA Tour wins to his name, Tony was the 14/1 Favourite which was a tough price to swallow pre-event for many. 2023 saw 90/1 shot Lee Hodges claim his maiden PGA Tour win by the mere matter of 7 shots. Flying back early from a Missed Cut at the Hoylake-hosted Open Championship, Hodges had flashed at the Genesis Scottish Open prior to that in Scotland, where he had finished 12th.
In 2024 Jhonattan Vegas took the 3M Open out at 80/1. He hadn’t played in Scotland or either of the alternate events across the Scottish Open/Open Championship fortnight and was a little under the radar. Incoming form was pretty good as well with 27th in Canada, 25th in Detroit and 20th in Hartford, where he had been 12th heading into Sunday. The Venezuelan had finished 2nd at the 3M Open in 2021.
That takes us to 2025 where this column landed Kurt Kitayama at 35/1 with extended places. Kitayama followed the Vegas route of no trip to the British Isles, but the 32 year-old after a sluggish start to the year had finished 5th a the John Deere Classic and a fast-finishing 14th at the Barracuda Championship in California the week before.
In terms of being able to correlate courses to TPC Twin Cities, it’s worth remembering that we are in the north of the United States. Matthew Wolff, since his win popped up on the PGA Tour in Detroit (Michigan) at the Rocket Mortgage Classic birdiefest where he shot -20/268 to finish 2nd behind Bryson DeChambeau. DeChambeau of course finished runner-up here in 2019 when we were on-board at 16/1, tied in fact with Collin Morikawa. Now Bryson and Collin are both Muirfield Village winners, with Bryson also winning his first ever PGA Tour title at Deere Run in 2017. Collin went on to finish 4th at Deere Run, the week after his runner-up finish here at TPC Twin Cities, and was T2 at Detroit in 2023. Another player you can throw into this mix is Adam Hadwin. 4th and 6th here at the 3M Open, he has also finished 4th (2020) and 2nd (2023) in Detroit. The Canadian has always been the sort who likes low scoring so 8th at Deere Run (2016) plus 4th (2019) and 6th (2021) at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas is also interesting, especially on the basis that Bryson DeChambeau won the 2018 Shriners Open and has another 3 top 8 finishes their in the Las Vegas desert suburbs.
How does this translate to Michael Thompson? Well you have to dig a little with the Arizona man, but Michael does have 8th and 14th place finishes at Muirfield Village. 12th at Deere Run fits and there is also a 13th place finish at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas. It’s not emboldened correlating form, but it’s there. Michael also has a top 10 finish at Colonial on his CV, which again fits nicely with Morikawa (2nd 2020), DeChambeau (3rd 2020) and Adam Hadwin (5th 2015, 8th 2021).
Cameron Champ was 11th at Deere Run the outing before he won this and had also finished 12th at the 2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic emboldening that correlating course line of enquiry, especially as he was also 2nd at Detroit Golf Club in 2019 going into the weekend. 14th at Colonial (2020) also links very nicely.
Tony Finau emboldens plenty of these correlating course links as well. Tony went on to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit, the week after winning the 3M Open. 2nd (2019) and 4th (2022) at Colonial is spot-on form, as are a couple of top 10 finishes at both Muirfield Village and TPC Summerlin.
Lee Hodges’ results also translate to a level. 12th at Muirfield Village was prior to his 3M Open victory. 44th on his first visit to Detroit in 2022 had seen him sit 3rd heading into the weekend. 27th (2022) at TPC Summerlin saw Lee 15th heading into Sunday and since his win here in Minnesota, the Alabama man has gone onto finish 12th (2024) at Colonial Country Club, plus 3rd (2026) at Deere Run.
Jhonattan Vegas prior to winning the 3M Open had finished 5th (2011) at TPC Summerlin, 25th in Detroit 2 outings before winning the 3M Open and naturally had the runner-up finish on the TPC Twin Cities track 3 years earlier – probably the best form of all.
Kurt Kitayama follows on nicely – 9th at TPC Summerlin (2024), 5th at Deere Run a few weeks prior to winning here in Minnesota, plus he had finished 6th at the 3M Open a year before his win at TPC Twin Cities.
