Steve Bamford

Steve Bamford's RBC Canadian Open Tips 2025

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Congratulations if you were on-board World Number 1 Scottie Scheffler at a best Monday opening price of 3/1. Job done from my perspective and you have to ask the question whether you take a proportion of your weekly betting stake and place it on the Texan each week he plays. After his Memorial Tournament victory, Scheffler has won 11 of his last 28 starts – that’s a 39% success rate. Plus from a golf history perspective, Scottie joined Tiger Woods as the only player to successfully defend his Memorial Tournament title in the 50th running of Jack’s event.

The week before the U.S. Open is always a fascinating scenario on the PGA Tour and in 2025 the RBC Canadian Open returns to Ontario to play a venue we have never seen before on the PGA Tour – TPC Toronto. This week the field includes defending champion Robert MacIntyre, Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, Sam Burns, Luke Clanton (making his professional debut), Wyndham Clark, Max Homa, Sungjae Im, Shane Lowry, Alex Noren and Justin Rose with Corey Conners leading the home contingent.

Before we go into the detail surrounding the RBC Canadian Open, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,500 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

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Course Guide: We have a brand new course on the PGA Tour to build into our thoughts. The North Course at TPC Toronto is the 38th course in the 121 year history of the Canadian Open to host the tournament, which it will also do in 2026. By the way, the Canadian Open is the third oldest continuously run event on the PGA Tour. This course has never seen top level action, but did host the 2024 Fortinet Cup Championship on the PGA Tour Americas where -5/275 won the title for Will Cannon.

TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley – North Course, Alton, Ontario: Designer: Doug Carrick 2001, Ian Andrew renovation 2023; Course Type: Parkland, Up-State, Medium; Par: 70; Length: 7,389 yards; Holes with Water In-Play: 3; Number of Sand Bunkers: 48; Acres of Fairway: 32; Fairways: Bentgrass with Poa Annua; Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass with Tall Fescue 3.75″; Greens: 6,500 sq.ft average featuring Bentgrass with Poa Annua.

North Course TPC Toronto Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for TPC Toronto and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:

  • TPC Toronto: 35-37 yards at 300 yards.
  • Muirfield Village: 24-25 yards at 300 yards.
  • Colonial: 25-30 yards at 300 yards.
  • Quail Hollow: 28-30 yards at 300 yards.
  • The Dunes Golf and Beach Club: 20 – 25 yards at 300 yards.
  • Philadelphia Cricket Club: 30-32 yards at 300 yards.
  • TPC Craig Ranch: 30 – 40 yards at 300 yards.
  • Harbour Town: 250 yards from tee: 29 yards wide; 275:26; 300:22; 325:26; 350:22.
  • Oaks Course: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:34; 300:29; 325:27; 350:26.
  • Memorial Park: 30 – 40 yards at 300 yards.
  • Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
  • TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
  • Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
  • PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
  • TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
  • Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
  • Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
  • Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
  • Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
  • Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.

Course Overview: The North Course at TPC Toronto was originally built in 2001 and was revamped in 2023, re-opening for action in the spring of 2024. Indeed it hosted the Fortinet Cup Championship on the PGA Tour Americas in September. For that is played as a 7,445 yard, Par 70, so length has been taken out of the format for the PGA Tour – 56 yards to be precise. A parkland course, holes are framed by trees, but this isn’t a claustrophobic layout. It’s a big ballpark.

The Par 70 format is also unique in that the 2 par-5s are the 1st and 18th holes. Diametrically opposite on the scorecard, for those starting on the 1st Hole, don’t make a birdie on the short, 542 yard, Par-5 and you won’t see the other one until your closing hole. Naturally those starting on the 10th Hole will play them consecutively, as the 9th and 10th holes of their round.

In terms of difficulty, the front 9 features 481 (2nd), 497 (5th) and 500 (9th) yard par-4s, with the closing 9 featuring 526 (13th), 513 (16th) and 530 (17th) yard par-4s. So that’s 6 par-4s between 481 and 530 yards, where mid-length irons will be required to get home. Tie that in with a couple of long par-3s in the form of the 7th (237 yards) and the 11th (225 yards) and I’m starting to think that wedge play won’t be as common as it often can be on the PGA Tour here at TPC Toronto.

Many of the holes are sweeping doglegs to elevated greens. Fairways are generous at 35-37 yards in landing areas. Miss them though and deep bunkering and shortish fescue for those offline makes this course tough, plus we are promised almost 4 inch long Kentucky Bluegrass rough.

This course hosted the 2019 Osprey Valley Open on the PGA Tour Canada which was won by Paul Barjon, from Taylor Pendrith and Jake Knapp. The Frenchman’s winning score was -26/263, but back then the course played as a 7,159 yard, Par 72. In consultation with the PGA Tour and TPC Network, the club hired Ian Andrew in 2022 to toughen the course.

His work lengthened the course, added fairway bunkers that challenge the longest hitters, enlarged the Bent/Poa Annua greens. and created runoff areas which offer up multiple recovery shot options around the greens.

Since the new format reopened, the 2024 Fortinet Cup Championship on the PGA Tour Americas was played here, won by Will Cannon (now on the Korn Ferry Tour). His winning score of -5/275 was in a tournament which featured high winds, but does suggest the North Course will put up some decent resistance if the weather is compliant. I expect a low teens winning score.

rbc canadian open tips

RBC Canadian Open Winners: 2024: Robert MacIntyre (-16); 2023: Nick Taylor (-17); 2022: Rory McIlroy (-19); 2019: Rory McIlroy (-22); 2018: Dustin Johnson (-23); 2017: Jhonattan Vegas (-21); 2016: Jhonattan Vegas (-12); 2015: Jason Day (-17); 2014: Tim Clark (-17); 2013: Brandt Snedeker (-16); 2012: Scott Piercy (-17); 2011: Sean O’Hair (-4); 2010: Carl Pettersson (-14).

  • 2024: Robert MacIntyre 64-66-66-68 -16/264 – PM/AM Wave
  • 2023: Nick Taylor 75-67-63-66 -17/271 – AM/PM Wave
  • 2022: Rory McIlroy 66-68-65-62 -19/261 AM/PM Wave
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy 67-66-64-61 -22/258 AM/PM Wave

OWGR of RBC Canadian Open Winners: 2024: MacIntyre 76; 2023: N Taylor 69; 2022: McIlroy 8; 2019: McIlroy 4; 2018: Dustin Johnson 2

Cut Line: 2024: E; 2023: -1; 2022: +1; 2019: -2.

Lead Score Progression:

  • 2024: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -10; Round 3 -14; Round 4 -16.
  • 2023: Round 1 -5; Round 2 -9; Round 3 -14; Round 4 -17.
  • 2022: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -8; Round 3 -7; Round 4 -19.
  • 2019: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -13; Round 4 -22.

Incoming Form of RBC Canadian Open winners since 2010:

  • Robert MacIntyre: MC Colonial/8th PGA/13th Myrtle/MC CJ Byron.
  • Nick Taylor: MC Colonial/MC PGA/2nd New Orleans/41st Harbour Town.
  • Rory McIlroy: 18th Memorial/8th PGA/5th Wells Fargo/2nd Augusta.
  • Rory McIlroy: MC Memorial/8th PGA/8th Wells Fargo/21st Augusta.
  • Dustin Johnson: MC Open/3rd US Open/1st St Jude/8th Memorial.
  • Jhonattan Vegas: MC Open/MC National/MC Travelers/MC US Open.
  • Jhonattan Vegas: 4th Barbasol/53rd Barracuda/44th Congressional/MC Memorial.
  • Jason Day: 4th Open/9th US Open/MC Memorial/MC TPC Sawgrass.
  • Tim Clark: 5th JDC/MC Greenbrier/MC Travelers/19th St Jude.
  • Brandt Snedeker: 11th Open/8th AT&T National/17th US Open/MC St Jude.
  • Scott Piercy: 3rd JDC/12th Greenbrier/ MC US Open/MC Memorial.
  • Sean O’Hair: MC Open/MC AT&T National/63rd Travelers/MC Memorial.
  • Carl Pettersson: MC JDC/6th AT&T National/34th Travelers/28th Memorial.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: 1) Rory McIlroy; 2) Taylor Pendrith; 3) Keith Mitchell; 4) Corey Conners; 5) Sungjae Im; 6) Robert MacIntyre; 7) Sam Burns; 8) Niklas Norgaard; 9) Kurt Kitayama; 10) Ludvig Aberg.

Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.

RBC Canadian Open Winners & Prices: 2024: MacIntyre 100/1; 2023: N Taylor 66/1; 2021: McIlroy 10/1; 2019: McIlroy 10/1; 2018: Johnson 7/1F; 2017: Vegas 125/1; 2016: Vegas 125/1; 2015: Day 9/1F; 2014: Clark 66/1; 2013: Snedeker 14/1; 2012: Piercy 50/1; 2011: Sean O’Hair 100/1; 2010: Pettersson 80/1.  Past 5 Renewals Average: 39/1; Average: 59/1.

Weather Forecast: Latest weather forecast for Caledon, Ontario is here. The PGA Tour moves to Ontario from Ohio and conditions will be similar to last week. Moderate temperatures of 15-21 Celsius – 59-70 Fahrenheit – are slightly down on what we saw last week.

The forecast in the main is calm and dry. Wind looks like it could be a factor on Saturday with a 15-20 mph northerly, but apart from that expect calm conditions. Rain on tournament Wednesday has a 50% chance, and the same probability of Thursday morning showers could see the course in a soft state.

Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Masters Tournament which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

  • Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Chris Gotterup; 2) Patrick Fishburn; 3) Niklas Norgaard; 4) Jesper Svensson; 5) Taylor Pendrith; 6) Corey Conners; 7) Rory McIlroy; 8) Keith Mitchell; 9) Ryan Fox; 10) Joseph Bramlett / Rico Hoey / Rasmus Hojgaard; 13) Vince Whaley; 14) Sungjae Im; 15) Ricky Castillo; 16) Cameron Young; 17) Thomas Rosenmueller; 18) Hayden Buckley / Justin Lower; 20) Doug Ghim; 21) Robert MacIntyre; 22) Thomas Detry; 23) Erik van Rooyen; 24) Luke List / Matthieu Pavon / Alex Smalley.
  • Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Emiliano Grillo; 2) Steven Fisk; 3) Antoine Rozner / Mike Weir; 5) Corey Conners / Shane Lowry / Matti Schmid; 8) Eric Cole; 9) Doug Ghim; 10) Joel Dahmen / Kurt Kitayama / Alex Noren; 13) Justin Rose / Sahith Theegala; 15) Henrik Norlander; 16) Taylor Pendrith; 17) Mark Hubbard; 18) Taylor Pendrith; 19) Ryan Fox / Sam Ryder; 21) Ricky Castillo; 22) Robert MacIntyre; 23) Joseph Bramlett / Ben Silverman; 25) Lee Hodges / Nick Taylor.
  • Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Aaron Wise; 2) Beau Hossler; 3) Chris Gotterup; 4) Mike Weir; 5) Matt Wallace; 6) Wyndham Clark / Andrew Putnam; 8) Kevin Velo; 9) Alex Noren; 10) Brice Garnett; 11) Ryo Hisatsune / Rory McIlroy; 13) Sungjae Im / Kurt Kitayama; 15) Taylor Moore / Davis Riley; 17) Byeong Hun An / Nick Taylor; 19) Matteo Manassero; 20) Mark Hubbard; 21) Ludvig Aberg; 22) Shane Lowry / Patrick Rodgers; 24) John Pak / Brandt Snedeker.
  • Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Chris Gotterup / Emiliano Grillo; 3) Kurt Kitayama; 4) Antoine Rozner; 5) Steven Fisk; 6) Niklas Norgaard; 7) Shane Lowry; 8) Corey Conners; 9) Mark Hubbard; 10) Ricky Castillo / Rory McIlroy; 12) Vince Whaley; 13) Doug Ghim / Thorbjorn Olesen; 15) Ryan Fox / Alex Noren; 17) Joseph Bramlett; 18) Taylor Pendrith; 19) Sungjae Im; 20) Eric Cole / Robert MacIntyre / Matti Schmid / Alex Smalley; 24) Aaron Wise; 25) Max McGreevy / Mike Weir.
  • Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Cristobal Del Solar; 2) Sam Burns; 3) Harry Hall / Danny Willett; 5) Max Homa; 6) Mark Hubbard; 7) Gary Woodland; 8) Brice Garnett / Keith Mitchell; 10) Eric Cole / Quade Cummins; 12) Corey Conners / Will Gordon / Trey Mullinax; 15) Thomas Detry / Kevin Roy; 17) Ludvig Aberg / Camilo Villegas; 19) Erik van Rooyen; 20) Sungjae Im / Sam Ryder; 22) Davis Riley / Nick Taylor / Cameron Young; 25) Adam Hadwin / Rory McIlroy.
  • Top 25 SG Total: 1) Mark Hubbard; 2) Rory McIlroy / Vince Whaley; 4) Chris Gotterup; 5) Sam Burns / Corey Conners; 7) Antoine Rozner; 8) Harry Hall; 9) Kurt Kitayama; 10) Shane Lowry; 11) Eric Cole; 12) Keith Mitchell / Thorbjorn Olesen; 14) Sungjae Im; 15) Ricky Castillo; 16) Alex Noren / Niklas Norgaard / Matti Schmid; 19) Emiliano Grillo; 20) Brice Garnett / Sam Ryder; 22) Kevin Roy; 23) Ludvig Aberg / Robert MacIntyre / Andrew Putnam.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their group and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.

  • 2024 – Skinns – PM -8/62 – 200/1.
  • 2023 – Conners/Hadley/Lower/Rai – ALL AM -5/67 – 33/1 200/1 150/1 80/1.
  • 2022 – Clark – AM -7/63 – 125/1.
  • 2019 – Bradley – AM -7/63 – 60/1.
  • 2018 – Garrigus – AM -9/63 – 200/1.
  • 2017 – Chappell/Every/Hagy/Schniederjans/Swafford – 1AM/4PM  -7/65 – 50/1 250/1 125/1 80/1 100/1.
  • 2016 – D Johnson/List – AM/PM Split -6/66.
  • 2015 – Grillo – AM -8/64.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Poa Annua and Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

  • 4 – Max Homa, Brandt Snedeker, Rory McIlroy.
  • 2 – Justin Rose, Nick Taylor, Gary Woodland.
  • 1 – Ludvig Aberg, Aaron Baddeley, Wyndham Clark, Nick Dunlap, Emiliano Grillo, Nate Lashley, Luke List, Matthieu Pavon, Andrew Putnam, Erik van Rooyen.

The RBC Canadian Open tends to visit similar golf courses. Tree-lined, normally classical in nature, and not overly long. Bentgrass greened or a mix of Bentgrass with Poa Annua. TPC Toronto is a small step away from the norm, medium in length and verging on long, wide fairways could turn this more into a bomber’s golf course.

Winners vary massively. Brandt Snedeker in 2013 (14/1), Jason Day in 2015 (9/1F), Dustin Johnson in 2018 (7/1F), Rory McIlroy in 2019 (10/1) and McIlroy again in 2022 (10/1) have all been favourites or in the top 3 in the betting market.

If a super-elite doesn’t win, then we need to look far deeper down the betting market. 50/1 Scott Piercy (we were on-board) at Hamilton in 2012 was the shortest odds-wise, with in odds order Tim Clark (2012) 66/1, Nick Taylor (2023) 66/1, Carl Pettersson (2010) 80/1, Sean O’Hair (2011) 100/1, Robert MacIntyre 2024 (100/1), Jhonattan Vegas (2016) 125/1 and Jhonattan Vegas (2017) at 125/1 making up the other winners since 2010. So summarising there have been no winners of the RBC Canadian Open going all the way back to 2009, between 14/1 and 50/1.

Food for thought!

My Final RBC Canadian Open Tips Are As Follows:

Ludvig Aberg 3pts EW 14/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

I’ll admit that I have a love/hate relationship with Ludvig Aberg. I love the way he plays and the way in which he plays, but our betting relationship to this point has not been that great. Let’s hope that changes this week, and I’m thinking that Aberg is going to love the nature of the North Course at TPC Toronto. 6 par-4s over 480 yards in length, with a couple of par-3s over 220 yards, highlights a course where mid- to long-range approach play will be critical. Throw in 2 very gettable par-5s and a driveable par-4 and I’m thinking that TPC Toronto will be very much in Ludvig’s wheelhouse. With width available off the tee, doglegs where +310 yard carry is preferable and plenty of medium to long approaches required, I’m guessing that the World Number 6 will make hay.

And after a lull in results, I expect that Aberg will want to build momentum as we head to a stretch that has the U.S. Open, Travelers Championship and the Open Championship in short succession. Noticeably 2 of his 3 main Tour wins have been on Par 70 formats and he’s also very comfortable on Bentgrass and Poa Annua greens. His 2023 Omega European Masters success came at Crans-Sur-Sierre GC which features Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix putting surfaces. Plus his 2025 Genesis Invitational win came at Torrey Pines South Course which features Poa Annua greens. RESULT: T13

Aberg closed with a -6/66 on Sunday at The Memorial for a T16 finish where he ranked 3rd for Ball-Striking, 4th for Total Driving and 12th for Strokes Gained Tee to Green. Plus I think a first National Open is something that will motivate the 25 year-old who by the way had pre-Major outing form in 2024 of 14-10-5-4.

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Michael Thorbjornsen WD Pre-Event

Michael Thorbjornsen should thrive this week coming back from his wrist injury WD at the Charles Schwab Challenge. I’m not too concerned about that on the basis he’d played 5 straight weeks from Corales through the gruelling PGA Championship, so I expect he simply needed a rest.

With plenty of space off the tee here on the North Course and a driveable par-4, Thorbjornsen will be able to use his undoubted ability off the tee. At 316 yards Driving Distance he sits behind only Aldrich Potgieter (where is he this week!), Niklas Norgaard, Rory McIlroy and Jesper Svensson for length off the tee on the PGA Tour, and backing that up across my 8-week Strokes Gained Tracker he ranks in this field 1st for Off the Tee, in the top 15 for Current Form, and top 25 for Tee to Green.

Born in Ohio and based in Wellesley, Massachusetts, the Bentgrass with Poa Annua fairways, Kentucky Bluegrass rough and Bentgrass Poa mix greens will be very much to Michael’s liking this week. Plus it’s well worth noting that despite his lack of professional experience he’s still finished 4th (2022) at the Travelers Championship and 2nd (2024) at the John Deere Classic. Up-State golf in the northern United States or Ontario, Canada should not be a problem in terms of agronomy.

A 7-time amateur winner with victories across Illinois (twice), Massachusetts, New Jersey and on his Stanford University (2023 Pac-12 Men’s Golf Championships) course which features Bentgrass greens, I think that TPC Toronto will be right up Michael’s street. Plus he’s in strong form with 2nd at Corales, 4th at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with Karl Vilips, and was 7th after 36 holes at the Quail hollow-hosted PGA Championship last time out, eventually falling back to 41st – his best Major finish at 23 years of age. RESULT: WD Pre-Event

Niklas Norgaard 1pt EW 75/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Niklas Norgaard is a fascinating player. A rookie on the PGA Tour, the Dane sits around the top 90 in both the Datagolf and Official Golf Rankings and the top 140 of the FedEx Cup rankings. That highlights that the 30 year-old’s introduction to the PGA Tour and life on the American circuit has been slow. Nothing better than T25 prior to a string of 4 MCs in late March and early April is below the expectations he set in an excellent 2024. This doesn’t tally with the fact that Norgaard Moller is still in the top 12 qualifiers for Ryder Cup Team Europe. In my estimation his ceiling is way better than we have seen in the United States to date and at some point he’s going to flourish.

33rd at the CJ Cup – 7th after 36 holes, Niklas played nicely at the alternate Myrtle Beach Classic in mid-May, grabbing his first top 5 on the PGA Tour with a closing 64. 2nd in Belgium (Rinkven International), 4th in Germany (Green Eagle Golf), 1st on the Brabazon Course at The Belfry (Betfred British Masters) and 7th at Wentworth in 2024, most of the 30 year-old Dane’s best work is on Bentgrass or Bentgrass Poa Annua putting surfaces on the DP World Tour.

He’s due to pop soon on the PGA Tour and I think the wide open spaces of the North Course at TPC Toronto, plus the mild Canadian climate, could be just the spot. RESULT: MC

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Matti Schmid 1pt EW 75/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Golf Betting System Podcast colleague Barry O’Hanrahan had some triple-digit each-way success on Matti Schmid at the Charles Schwab Challenge a fortnight ago and I’m jumping on-board the same wave for this week’s RBC Canadian Open.

Schmid is having his best ever period in professional golf – now at his highest Official World Golf Ranking in the mid 70s – 4 top-10s on the PGA Tour in 2025 has been a record haul for the 27 year-old German, who is based in Jacksonville Beach, Florida. 6th at the Puerto Rico Open, 9th at the Corales Championship and 7th at the Myrtle Beach Classic, Schmid stepped it up in both result and class by finishing 2nd to Ben Griffin at the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial, where he landed his first $1 million pay-cheque. Mixing it with Scottie Scheffler and Rickie Fowler on Sunday, he pushed Griffin all the way, something he must take even more confidence from.

Long off the tee (15th for Driving Distance on the PGA Tour season to date), his lack of accuracy won’t be such as an issue this week on a lush course with wide fairways. Matti’s real wheelhouse though is his approach play. 36th for Strokes Gained on Approach on the PGA Tour so far this season, mid to long iron play is his real forte, ranking in the top 30 for Proximity 150-175 yards and in the top 10 for proximity 175-200 yards and outside of 200 yards. Despite a poor RBC Canadian Open record – MC-MC – I’m thinking that the longer, wider set-up here at TPC Toronto will suit far more than Oakdale and Hamilton have done over the past 2 years. Still drove it well and was positive with his approaches at the Memorial Tournament last week, where he missed the cut on the number. RESULT: MC

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Erik van Rooyen 1pt EW 80/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

In light of Michael Thorbjornsen’s Monday WD, as a replacement I’ll put up Erik van Rooyen. Erik on Monday qualified for the U.S. Open at the Kinsale Golf & Fitness Club in Ohio. His -13 total was good enough to be the medalist beating the likes of fellow qualifiers Bud Cauley by 6 shots and Cameron Young by 8 shots. No mean feat.

A 2-time winner on the PGA Tour – once on Bentgrass Poa Annua mix greens – van Rooyen has come close to winning National Opens in the past. 2nd at the 2019 Turkish Airlines Open and 4th at the 2018 Irish Open played at Ballyliffin Golf Club, he lost in a play-off in Turkey and was the 36- and 54-hole leader in Donegal. He’s also been close at the Scottish Open being 2nd at the 2019 renewal at the Renaissance before dropping to 14th and then very much back-dooring a T6 in 2020. 8th at the 2023 Mexico Open, 10th at the 2019 Italian Open plus a couple of top 20s at the Open Championship – 2018 (Carnoustie) and 2019 (Royal Portrush) – highlight a player who clearly values National Opens and plays well in them.

The best he’s done in Canada is 20th at the 2019 RBC Canadian Open played at Hamilton, but as I’ve said above Canadian Opens tend to be played on short, tight, classical golf courses, which for me aren’t Erik’s forte. Give him width off the tee where he can bomb away with driver and van Rooyen tends to thrive. The North Course at TPC Toronto built on rolling agricultural land should suit.

The 35 year-old has always been a momentum player, who has always been one to follow when driving the ball well so now is a good time to get on-board. You may remember him finishing 2nd to Scottie Scheffler at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson early in May. Since then 34th at the Signature event Truist Championship was no disgrace and 36th last time out at the Charles Schwab Challenge featured a Friday -6/64 and a Sunday -5/65 which was the very best round of the day.

Across my 8-week Strokes Gained Analysis in this field he ranks in the top 20 for Putting top 25 for Off the Tee, plus on the PGA Tour he ranks 6th for Total Driving, 41st for Greens in Regulation, plus he’s exceptional with his irons from 175 yards and beyond. RESULT: MC

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✅ Odds compiler takes a different view of many events meaning value can be found
✅ Flexible each-way terms available with 5, 7, 8 and 10 place options to choose from

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CLAIM T&Cs

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 14:30BST 2.6.25 but are naturally subject to fluctuation. Van Rooyen added 10:25BST 3.6.25.