Steve Bamford

Steve Bamford's VidantaWorld Mexico Open Tips 2026

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The PGA Tour Fall Series moves to Mexico. This time of year has seen a trip to Mexico since 2013, and 2026 sees a couple of stop-offs with the VidantaWorld Mexico Open followed by the World Wide Technology Championship.

With only this and 3 more tournaments ending with the RSM Classic in terms of 2026 PGA Tour events left to play, there are plenty of motivating factors this week such as:

  • Official World Golf Ranking top 50 spot (invite for the 2027 Masters arriving pre-Christmas for those not already exempt).
  • AON Next 10 FedExCup Fall Series spot (entry into the big money AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am & Genesis Invitational tournaments early in 2027.
  • FedExCup Fall Series top 100 (Full Tour Card playing privileges for 2027 for those not already exempt)
  • FedExCup Fall Series top 101–125 (Conditional Tour Status for 2027 for those not already exempt)

It’s a better field this week with Wyndham Clark, Ben Griffin, Corey Conners, Doug Ghim, Ben James and Tom Kim making his first appearance since his life-changing Asian Games gold medal. There are plenty of European players as well like Harry Hall, Rasmus Hojgaard, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, John Parry, Marco Penge and Jordan Smith.

Before we go into the detail surrounding the VidantaWorld Mexico Open, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube, and our hugely popular, +6,600 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

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You can read Liam Williams’ Power Rankings for the VidantaWorld Mexico Open at bet365 News.

Course Guide: VidantaWorld is a golf destination in the town of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. Set on the Pacific Coast, Grupo Salinas within their Vallarta resort complex have a number of golf courses, the newest of which is the Norman Signature Course. Designed by Greg Norman and opened in 2015, it’s only accessible via the world’s longest golf cart suspension bridge.

Set within a kilometre of the Pacific shoreline, the course itself is set on the Ameca River, with a few holes running alongside, reminding me of WGC World Match Play host course Austin Country Club in that respect. It’s not a coastal links by any means as the course is flat with plenty of lakes and ponds forming hazards around the set-up for the errant.

VidantaWorld – Norman Signature Course, Puerto Vallarta, Mexico: Designer: Greg Norman 2015, with 2025 Greg Norman Golf Course Design re-design; Course Type: Coastal, Mid-Score, Short; Par: 71; Length: 7,337 yards; Holes with Water Hazards In-Play: 13; Number of Sand Bunkers: 55; Acres of Fairway: 40; Fairways: Platinum Paspalum; Rough: Platinum Paspalum 2.5″; Greens: Platinum Paspalum; Tournament Stimp: 11-11.5 ft.

Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:

  • 2025: 69.51 (-1.49), Rank 33 of 50 courses
  • 2024: 70.07 (-0.93), Rank 21 of 51 courses
  • 2023: 70.10 (-0.90), Rank 31 of 49 courses
  • 2022: 70.32 (-0.68), Rank 24 of 50 courses

Designer Links: For research purposes other Greg Norman designs include:

  • Earth Course – DP World Tour Championship (DP World Tour)
  • El Camaleon GC – Mayakoba Classic or WWT Championship up to 2022
  • TPC at Sugarloaf – 1997 – 2008  Classic
  • Oaks Course, TPC San Antonio – Valero Texas Open

Course Overview: This will be the fifth Mexico Open that has been “promoted” to the PGA Tour. The Mexico Open actually dates back to 1944 and is considered Mexico’s national championship. Grupo Salinas, who brought the WGC Mexico Championship to Chapultepec across 2017-2020, now finance and host the tournament at their VidantaWorld golf complex.

Set within a kilometre of the Pacific coastline, if you’re expecting a course with coastal vistas and holes that front onto the sea, well that isn’t the case. Built on flat land adjacent to the Ameca River to the north and an International airport to the south, the course is pretty unique in that no buildings or housing surround the property. Indeed access to the course is via a unique suspension bridge over the river. The course is inland and features plenty of lakes meaning water is very much in-play across the vast majority of holes. The volume of water actually reminds a little of a Florida-type golf course, although there are far more trees on the property than you would find at say PGA National. The topography, volume of water, Paspalum agronomy and length of the course also remind me of Grand Reserve Country Club where they play the Puerto Rico Open. Naturally with their shared designer and geographical location within Mexico, you can also see elements of El Camaleon where they played the Mayakoba Classic – that course though is over 400 yards shorter.

VidantaWorld, formerly the Signature Course, features very wide fairways, small bunkers, long waste areas, and Paspalum greens with plenty of subtle breaks and surrounded by tricky collection areas. As per any course located by the sea, scoring is dictated purely by wind strength, although saying that Tony Finau and Brandon Wu both shot -8/63s in 2022 on a day when the wind was gusting over 30 mph. Less wind in 2023 and 2024 saw Jon Rahm shoot -10/61 on Saturday with Akshay Bhatia, Jake Knapp, Ben Silverman and Erik van Rooyen also hitting -8/63s. Aldrich Potgieter in 2025 shot a Friday -10/61 in 10-15mph wind.

The 2026 VidantaWorld Mexico Open will be played over a significantly rerouted Vidanta Vallarta layout, with the course reduced by 99 yards from 7,436 to 7,337 yards, while retaining its par-71 configuration. The front nine has increased from par 35 to par 36, with the back nine moving in the opposite direction. Much of the apparent change in individual hole yardages is attributable to the renumbering of existing holes rather than wholesale redesign. The course continues to feature 4 par-5, 5 par-3s, and 9 par-4s.

There have, however, been some genuine architectural changes, powered by Chris Campbell at Greg Norman Golf Course Design, including new bunkering, alterations to landing areas and green complexes, and a redesigned stadium-style 17th hole. The revised routing is also intended to improve spectator movement and tournament operations. Despite the changes, historical course form should remain highly relevant with the wide fairways, generous landing areas, and opportunities for aggressive scoring continuing to characterise Vidanta Vallarta. The shorter overall yardage is unlikely to fundamentally alter the course’s established emphasis on strong approach play, attacking par-five scoring, and birdie-making ability.

Mexico Open Winners: 2025: Brian Campbell (-20); 2024: Jake Knapp (-19); 2023: Tony Finau (-24); 2022: Jon Rahm (-17).

  • 2025: Brian Campbell 65-65-64-70 -20/264
  • 2024: Jake Knapp 67-64-63-71 -19/265
  • 2023: Tony Finau 64-65-65-66 -24/260
  • 2022: Jon Rahm 64-66-68-69 -17/267

OWGR of Mexico Open Winners: 2025: Campbell 222; 2024: Knapp 101; 2023: Finau 16; 2022: Rahm 2.

Datagolf Ranking of Mexico Open winners: 2025: Campbell 118; 2024: Knapp 124; 2023: Finau 6; 2022: Rahm 4.

Cut Line: 2025: -3; 2024: -2; 2023: -2; 2022: -1.

Lead Score Progression:

  • 2025: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -16; Round 3 -20; Round 4 -20.
  • 2024: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -11; Round 3 -19; Round 4 -19.
  • 2023: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -14; Round 3 -19; Round 4 -24.
  • 2022: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -15; Round 4 -17.

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the winners of the Mexico Open:

  • 2025 – Brian Campbell: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 2nd.
  • 2024 – Jake Knapp: Round 1: 15th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2023 – Tony Finau: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2022 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.

Shots From the Lead: Below are the Mexico Open winners and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:

  • 2025 – Brian Campbell: Round 1: 1 behind, Round 2: 4 behind, Round 3: 1 behind.
  • 2024 – Jake Knapp: Round 1: 4 ahead, Round 2: level, Round 3: 4 ahead.
  • 2023 – Tony Finau: Round 1: 2 behind, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 2 ahead.
  • 2022 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: Level, Round 2: 2 ahead, Round 3: 2 ahead.

Incoming Form of Mexico Open winners:

  • Brian Campbell: MC Torrey/51st PGA West/WD Waialae/2 KF Tour Champ.
  • Jake Knapp: 28th TPC Scottsdale/3rd Torrey/MC PGA West/70th Waialae.
  • Tony Finau: 31st Harbour Town/26th Augusta/ 17th WMP/19th TPC Sawgrass.
  • Jon Rahm: 27th Augusta/9th WMP/55th TPC Sawgrass/17th Bay Hill.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: 1) Doug Ghim; 2) Johnny Keefer; 3) Kris Ventura; 4) Neal Shipley; 5) Lee Hodges; 6) Rico Hoey; 7) Blades Brown; 8) Jordan Smith; 9) Jackson Suber; 10) Kevin Streelman.

Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.

Mexico Open Winners & Prices: 2025: Campbell 150/1; 2024: Knapp 50/1; 2023: Finau 8/1; 2022: Rahm 5/1F. Overall Average: 53/1.

Historical Weather:

  • 2025: Thursday: Mix of sun and high clouds. High of 81. Wind SW 8-14 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny after mid-morning. High of 85. Wind SW 10-15 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 86. Wind SW 8-13 mph, gusting to 15 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 86. Wind SW 10-15 mph, gusting to 18 mph.
  • 2024: Thursday: Sunny. High of 85. Wind SSW 10-15 mph. Friday:   High of 83. Wind SSW 10-15 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 82. Wind SSW 10-15 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 82. Wind SSW 10-15 mph.
  • 2023: Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High of 63. Wind SW 6-12 mph. Friday: Mostly Cloudy. High of 57. Wind NE 5-10 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 66. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Sunday:  Sunny. High of 65. Wind SW 6-12 mph.
  • 2022: Thursday: Sunny. High of 83. Wind SW 8-13 mph, increasing in the afternoon with gusts to 29 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 84. Wind SW 8-16 mph, increasing in the afternoon with gusts to 32 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 83. Wind SW 8-17 mph, increasing in the afternoon with gusts to 22 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 81. Wind SW 10-15 mph, increasing in the afternoon with gusts to 32 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Puerto Vallarta, Mexico is here.

As ever, hot and humid is the best way to describe the conditions this week in Mexico. With temperatures at 30-32 degrees Celsius (86-90 Fahrenheit) throughout the players will welcome some breeze. Wind looks similar to last year, with limited wind early, building up to varying direction 10-15 mph around lunchtime and into the afternoon. With a 70% threat of rain on tournament Wednesday, you can expect soft conditions on Thursday and resort-level scoring levels across the week, with -20s probably the winning total required.

Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Omega European Masters which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

  • Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) David Ford; 2) Joel Dahmen; 3) Keita Nakajima; 4) Neal Shipley; 5) Steven Fisk; 6) Karl Vilips; 7) Corey Conners / Ben James / Chan Kim; 10) Jackson Suber; 11) Doug Ghim; 12) Taylor Pendrith / Kris Ventura; 14) Max Homa; 15) Takumi Kanaya; 16) Kihei Akina / Blades Brown; 18) Zach Bauchou; 19) Rafael Campos; 20) Rico Hoey; 21) Gordon Sargent / John VanDerLaan; 23) Jeffrey Kang; 24) Haotong Li / Chandler Phillips.
  • Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Corey Conners; 2) Andrew Novak; 3) Marty Dou; 4) Gordon Sargent; 5) Kihei Akina / Chandler Blanchet / Lee Hodges / Jackson Suber; 9) Austin Eckroat / Rico Hoey / Adam Svensson; 12) Peter Malnati; 13) Billy Horschel / Johnny Keefer; 15) Zach Bauchou / Doug Ghim; 17) Chan Kim / Patton Kizzire; 19) Blades Brown / Garrick Higgo; 21) Ben James; 22) Danny Walker; 23) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Paul Peterson; 25) Luke Clanton / Trace Crowe / John Parry.
  • Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) David Skinns; 2) Dylan Wu; 3) Wyndham Clark; 4) Zach Bauchou; 5) Kihei Akina / Brice Garnett / Mackenzie Hughes / Johnny Keefer; 9) Tony Finau; 10) Adrien Dumont de Chassart; 11) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 12) Doug Ghim / Christo Lamprecht / Chandler Phillips; 15) Justin Lower / Gordon Sargent; 17) Aaron Baddeley / Vince Whaley; 19) Danny Walker; 20) Takumi Kanaya / Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen; 22) Nick Dunlap / Joe Highsmith / Taylor Moore / Chad Ramey.
  • Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Corey Conners; 2) Doug Ghim; 3) Kihei Akina; 4) Rico Hoey; 5) Zach Bauchou / Gordon Sargent; 7) Chan Kim / Jackson Suber; 9) Neal Shipley; 10) Marty Dou / Max Homa; 12) Blades Brown / Johnny Keefer / Andrew Novak; 15) Ben James; 16) Keita Nakajima / Danny Walker; 18) John Parry / Taylor Pendrith / John VanDerLaan / Kris Ventura; 22) Steven Fisk / Harry Hall / Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen / Kevin Roy.
  • Top 25 SG Putting: 1) A.J. Ewart; 2) Chan Kim; 3) C.T. Pan; 4) Adrien Dumont de Chassart; 5) Billy Horschel / Takumi Kanaya; 7) Max Homa / Christo Lamprecht / Davis Riley; 10) Doug Ghim; 11) Patrick Rodgers; 12) Blades Brown / William Mouw / Patrick Rodgers; 15) Trace Crowe / Johnny Keefer / Camilo Villegas; 18) Max Greyserman / Vince Whaley; 20) Hayden Springer; 21) Steven Fisk / Taylor Moore / Aaron Wise; 24) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Chad Ramey.
  • Top 25 SG Total: 1) Chan Kim; 2) Doug Ghim; 3) Kihei Akina; 4) Zach Bauchou; 5) Neal Shipley; 6) Blades Brown / Johnny Keefer; 8) Trace Crowe / Max Homa; 10) Corey Conners; 11) Billy Horschel; 12) Gordon Sargent; 13) Lee Hodges; 14) Andrew Novak; 15) Steven Fisk / Jackson Suber; 17) Zac Blair / Danny Walker; 19) Rico Hoey / Takumi Kanaya;  21) Ben James / Ben Silverman / Dylan Wu; 24) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Patrick Rodgers.

Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the VidantaWorld Mexico Open winners gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this long, Par 71:

Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:

  • 2025, Brian Campbell (-20). SG Off the Tee: 32nd, SG Approach: 4th, SG Around the Green: 2nd, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 33rd.
  • 2024, Jake Knapp (-19). SG Off the Tee: 11th, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 42nd, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 17th.
  • 2023, Tony Finau (-24). SG Off the Tee: 2nd, SG Approach: 8th, SG Around the Green: 13th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 8th.
  • 2022, Jon Rahm (-17). SG Off the Tee: 2nd, SG Approach: 30th, SG Around the Green: 22nd, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 18th.

Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:

  • SG Off the Tee: 12th, SG Approach: 11th, SG Around the Green: 19th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 19th.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the VidantaWorld Mexico Open winners give us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

  • 2025, Brian Campbell (-20). 294 yards (73rd), 84.6% fairways (5th), 73.6% greens in regulation (17th), 68.4% scrambling (19th), 1.58 putts per GIR (6th).
  • 2024, Jake Knapp (-19). 323 yards (2nd), 67.3% fairways (28th), 76.4% greens in regulation (5th), 64.7% scrambling (27th), 1.64 putts per GIR (10th).
  • 2023, Tony Finau (-24). 329 yards (11th), 75.0% fairways (11th), 80.6% greens in regulation (3rd), 85.7% scrambling (2nd), 1.62 putts per GIR (6th).
  • 2022, Jon Rahm (-17). 340 yards (1st), 69.2% fairways (15th), 76.4% greens in regulation (7th), 70.6 % scrambling (17th), 1.73 putts per GIR (32nd).

Tournament Skill Averages:

  • Driving Distance: 22nd, Driving Accuracy: 15th, Greens in Regulation: 8th, Scrambling: 16th, Putting Average 14th.

So let’s take a view from players as to how the Norman Signature Course sets up plus what skill sets they favour:

Brian Campbell (2025): “I think just do the same thing we have been doing, stay aggressive to our targets, stick to our game plan and stick to our process. Distance control, I think my iron play feels comfortable, driver’s starting to feel a lot better and I’m really starting to see the reads on the greens as the week goes on, so that’s exciting.

Hitting it to two inches on the first hole calmed the nerves, so nice opening birdie there. I think breathing, taking that extra time to not get rushed is huge, and then just stay within yourself. He’s playing a different course than we are. It’s been honestly fun to watch. I know him from last year, so it’s just been fun. I’m playing my game, he’s playing his game and we’ll see where that stacks up.

Really love the way I held in there today. Bogey free are my favorite rounds. I don’t care how many birdies I make, the more the better, but I think a lot of the 113-foot of putts came on hole 9, about half of it or more. Yeah, I really felt comfortable on the greens, I felt comfortable off the tee boxes. Giving myself chances was just what I was trying to do and chase down Aldrich.“  

Aldrich Potgieter (2025): “Yeah, on the par-5 12th, I knew I was playing good and I knew if I didn’t hit the shot the best I could still walk away with maybe a birdie, I just had to miss that tree, the big tree. I’ve been practicing doing a drill on the driving range with teeing it really low and hitting it really good with the diver that way. I was telling my caddie, I was like let’s just do the same thing. It was a perfect number, so yeah, hit the perfect shot and had an eagle opportunity that I didn’t make, but it was good, yeah.”

Jake Knapp (2024): “Just a lot of the same, nothing changes. I mean, golf course is pretty gettable if you can drive it well and take advantage of the downwind holes, and they can tuck some pins and put them in some tough spots, so just have to be able to be aware of when it’s not a green light and when it is. Yeah, just a lot of the same thing, what I’ve been doing, give myself chances and hopefully roll in some more putts.

Yeah, I kind of circled the par-3s this morning after looking at the pin locations and just felt like depending on where the tee was, I felt like they were going to match up for me pretty well and thought they were going to be pretty gettable, so wanted to make sure I kept in the back of my head that there was definitely going to be some good opportunities there.

I still move it pretty quick or at least I’m still trying to be aggressive into the ball. I mean, yeah, like a lot of guys out here we all have like another gear we can get to. There’s a few holes out here where we can let it go, for sure.  But for me, I just think I’ve realised over the past few years and especially this year just fairways are a premium so tend to kind of hit a lot of that like spinny cut shot and just kind of get it in play. Especially when I’m hitting the ball well, I know if I can just get it in play off the tee, can give myself a lot of chances from there.”

Tony Finau (2023): “Yeah, they were good. Some of the pins were tucked. The greens are actually a lot firmer than they were last year. Greens are also a little bit faster so you’ve got to respect some of these pins. Short-sided is actually quite a bit tougher than it was last year. With that being the case, I thought the pins were really good and they weren’t easy. The wind blew out there in the afternoon, so I was happy to score the way I did.

Yeah, there’s a few tough driving holes, but there’s also four or five holes that allow you to really swing the driver, it’s pretty open on some of those holes. Yeah, I like hitting driver a lot when I play golf, it’s the club that gets me the momentum. It kind of goes hand in hand when I’m swinging the driver well, I’m usually putting it well. That’s how I was as a kid and this golf course I think just suits my game pretty nicely.

I think Rahmbo and I both hit a little cut, we like hitting the cut with the driver. This golf course I think suits guys that hit a little left-to-right shot with their driver, but mostly I would say just suits guys that hit it very far. This golf course allows me to kind of open up a little bit and hit it with some length.

I hit a really good iron shot on No. 17. It was a really tough par 3 today into the wind 220 yards. I hit a little draw 4-iron right on the green. It’s just a hard shot. I would have taken anything dry and to be able to hit it to 30 feet there I thought was a really good shot.”

Jon Rahm (2022 – Thursday): “Yeah, really comfortable off the tee. It’s not like it’s ever bad, but today felt especially comfortable. It’s not the most demanding golf course off the tee, right, besides 10 and maybe 1. You’re not really in real danger of being in bad position, but even though it’s generous, when I’m hitting shots the way with the trajectory and the ball flight that I wanted, it just gives me more confidence for every other shot. It’s a really good golf course. And the one thing to keep in mind for people watching the scores, there’s a big difference between morning and afternoon. We had no wind for 13, 14 holes, it’s very, very scorable. Once the wind starts going 20, 30 miles an hour, this golf course starts showing some teeth. It’s long, you have a couple really long par 4s, 4 and 8 straight into the wind, both of them 500 yards, so you can start seeing higher scores out there.“

Jon Rahm (2022 – Friday): “Well, the wind makes it a completely different golf course. Yesterday, you know, except the last four holes or so, we enjoyed a wind-free day and you can be a little bit more aggressive with certain shots. Even with a couple longer irons, you’re just comfortable hitting it at the pin because those greens are receptive. On the other hand, today a couple of the par 5s were shorter, yes, but some holes were playing long, 10 was long, eight was long, nine and 13 were playing very, very difficult. You need to hit some quality shots on those holes. Sixteen and 17, you need to hit great shots to give yourself chances. And even 18, it is a par-5, but it’s not the easiest fairway to hit with that crosswind.”

Kurt Kitayama (2022 – Friday): “Not really. I just kind of stayed patient because I know I was able to make a lot of birdies yesterday so I figured I would be able to make a few more today, so just stayed patient. It happens. Especially 10’s such a hard starting hole and I had still a lot of par 5s coming in, so just kind of regrouped and stayed patient. I hit a couple 4 irons into 3 today and then 8, that was playing really long. I actually missed on 8, but I thought it was a really good 4-iron shot. I know on 3 I hit it to like 20 feet and that was really good. when you’re near the ocean, you get a lot of this grass, but everything’s like so purely conditioned and you don’t really get a bad lie out there, which is nice. Just a lot of like island golf, I guess.”

Jonathan Byrd (2022 – Thursday): “ Well, I mean, for a guy who’s kind of, struggled with my tee ball a little bit over the years at times and when you’ve got so many tee shots where you can just let it go and swing as hard as you want, you start off on the first hole and it kind of puts a little pressure on you like you don’t want to mess up the first tee. So it was nice to hit the first fairway. But then the rest of the golf course, it kind of gives you plenty of room off the tee and the rough’s not bad, so it’s just kind of swing away.”

Alex Smalley (2022 – Friday):” It was hard, it certainly was. We were laughing about it. The par 5, I think it’s 605, 610 yards and I hit a really good drive, but I hit 5-iron into that green on my second shot. And then No. 8 was a par-4 and I had 3-wood in on my second shot. So some of the par 4s were certainly playing pretty long. That’s what happens when you have winds that are gusting 25, 20 or 25. I was able to keep the ball in play and was able to get out of those holes that were playing really long, and happy I’m done with them.”

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.

  • 2025 – Hall/J Paul/Ventura – 2AM / 1PM Split -7/64 45/1, 110/1, 70/1.
  • 2024 – van Rooyen – PM -9/62 50/1.
  • 2023 – Smotherman – AM -8/63 125/1.
  • 2022 – Byrd/Kitayama/Mullinax/Nimmer/Rahm/Todd – 5AM / 1PM Split -7/64 180/1, 100/1, 125/1, 200/1, 16/1, 60/1.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of Paspalum PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

  • 2 – Tony Finau, Brice Garnett.
  • 1 – Brian Campbell, Rafael Campos, Joel Dahmen, Austin Eckroat, Ben Griffin, Garrick Higgo, Billy Horschel, Patton Kizzire, Chad Ramey, Erik van Rooyen, Karl Vilips.

This is only our fifth visit to the Norman Signature Course, so it’s dangerous to make a full view on what we have witnessed. However the “grip and rip” style of golf was certainly viewable at the top of all leaderboards.

Strokes Gained Ball Striking has been the critical metric, with the 2022 title going to World Number 2 (at the time) Jon Rahm despite not being in the best of form, and the 2023 title heading the way of World Number 16 Tony Finau. Tour rookie Jake Knapp stepped up to the mark in 2024 after an impressive start to his Tour career which included a 3rd spot at Torrey Pines in the lead-up to his Mexico victory. 2025 saw a tale of the “long and the short” as Brian Campbell and Aldrich Potgieter co-led by 3 shots heading into Sunday, with Campbell eventually out-grinding the South African in a play-off. Potgieter was the longest player on Tour in 2025, Campbell the shortest, with the 31 year-old taking his maiden PGA Tour title.

A look at each-way placers shows undoubted links to Grand Reserve Country Club (Puerto Rico Open) Corales Golf Club (Corales Championship) El Camaleon (Mayakoba Classic) and El Cardonal (WWT Championship), which is hardly surprising given the coastal location, tropical climes, and the Paspalum agronomy.

My Final VidantaWorld Mexico Open Tips Are As Follows:

Johnny Keefer 2pts EW 20/1 (8EW, 1/5) with BetFred

Take the FedEx Cup PlayOffs out of the equation and we’ve seen a whole host of youthful players winning on the PGA Tour. Jackson Koivun, Michael Thorbjornsen, Michael Brennan (twice) and Jacob Bridgeman are all aged 26 years and under. Talent that could well be in the Team USA Ryder Cup qualification mix in 2027. I’m hoping that 25 year-old Johnny Keefer joins the winner’s circle in Mexico this week.

Current form of 7th (Biltmore), 10th (Bank of Utah) and 33rd (Baycurrent) places Keefer in the top 6 for Current Form in this field across my 8-week Strokes Gained Analysis. Following the narrative of the Norman Signature Course suiting bombers who can putt, Johnny ranks in the top 12 for both Driving Distance and Driving Distance All Drives this season on the PGA Tour, plus he’s within the top 15 in this field of my 8-week Strokes Gained Putting metric.

2nd in Panama and 4th in Colombia in his 2025 Korn Ferry Tour campaign where he won twice, Keefer, who is amazing throughout his bag on approach, has decent results in similar geographical climes.

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Marco Penge 2pts EW 22/1 (8EW, 1/5) with BetFred

Marco Penge is another talent who is trending. A 3-time winner on the DP World Tour last season, at 110th in the FedEx Cup Fall Series Points List he’s still outside the magical top 100 who gain full playing privileges for 2027. 10th at the Biltmore and 66th at the Bank of Utah within the Fall Series has been surrounded by better play in Europe including 6th at the Husqvarna British Masters, 18th at the Omega European Masters, and a fast-finishing 20th at the Open de Espana when defending for the first time, last time out. That will build Marco’s confidence in my opinion.

Like Keefer, a bomber whose better approach play is from 175 yards and out, Penge was 15th for Strokes Gained Putting last time we saw him at the Club de Campo Villa de Madrid. He’s also got some hidden Paspalum form which I really like, as his DP World Tour maiden win came at the 2025 Hainan Classic last April. The Blackstone Course at Mission Hills is Paspalum from tee to green, and incidentally was played in humid, 30 degree Celsius – upper 80 degree Fahrenheit conditions.

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Neal Shipley 1.5pts EW 30/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Neal Shipley is a player we’ve been on at the recent Bank of Utah event, and on courses in the Fall Series that suit he’s been top 10 at both – including 3rd at Asheville. Where Bermuda last week was too tight, fiddly and ultimately far too windswept for Shipley, I think the Norman Signature Course will suit on his first look.

Long and straight off the tee, Shipley is superb with longer irons and the putter has started to warm a little after being in the deep freeze for most of 2026. In this field across my 8-week Strokes Gained Analysis, he ranks in the top 10 for Tee to Green plus the top 5 for Off the Tee and Current Form. 5th for Strokes Gained Putting at the Biltmore Championship, he was positive again at Port Royal last week on grainy Bermudagrass greens in windy conditions. I expect that builds confidence with the flat stick.

I can’t find Paspalum form to excite hugely, but in his Korn Ferry Tour season in 2025 he finished 9th in Panama and 18th at Riviera Maya (Tulum Championship) in Mexico on a Paspalum golf course, so he has experience.

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Chandler Blanchet 1pt EW 140/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

I’ll close with Chandler Blanchet who at a bigger price interests me as well. Formative career PGA Tour Latinoamerica wins in Brazil (2019), Argentina (2023), and the 2023 Bupa Tour Championship are excellent indicators, especially the latter at PGA Riviera Maya in Mexico which features Platinum TE Paspalum. A 2025 Korn Ferry Tour promotion year also highlights a player who plays very nicely outside the confines of the United States. 13th in Colombia, 11th in Argentina, 9th in Chile and 12th at again at Riviera Maya differ in relevancy, but do show an aptitude in central and southern America.

Blanchet later on in 2025 went on to win the Price Cutter Championship (Highland Springs GC) and the season closing Korn Ferry Championship (French Lick) – a tournament and a course that 2025 Mexico champion Brian Campbell finished 2nd at in 2024. On to Blanchet’s maiden PGA Tour season which has produced 2 top-6 finishes across the Puerto Rico Open plus last week’s Bermuda Championship, and a further 2 top-20 finishes across Copperhead and Detroit Golf Club.

Grand Reserve in Puerto Rico makes lots of sense – coastal, windswept plus Paspalum agronomy, and it was interesting to see Blanchet pop up again at Port Royal last week. The First Round Leader and joint 36-hole leader, Chandler hung around on a windy Saturday, shooting 71 in a final group containing Seamus Power and Kensei Hirata who ejected. 11th for Strokes Gained on Approach – he ranks 5th in this field over the past 8 weeks – Blanchet was also 12th for Strokes Gained Putting in Bermuda.

At 114th in the FedEx Cup Fall Points List, he has the opportunity to grab a coveted top 100 spot for 2027, or conversely fall out of the top 125 partial status positions completely, so will be 100% focussed.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 14:30GMT 26.10.26 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.

About The Author - Steve Bamford

Steve Bamford

Steve Bamford is co-founder and part of our editorial team at Golf Betting System and he focuses mainly on the PGA Tour. Steve has been involved in the gambling industry for over 15 years and has a passion for golf as well as football, horse racing and MMA, where he has developed a deep understanding of both online and offline betting gathered through practical experience. Steve also hosts the popular Golf Betting System podcast.

You can find out more about Steve’s involvement with Golf Betting System here.

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