Steve Bamford

Steve Bamford's WWT Championship Tips 2026

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After Andrew Novak won the Mexico Open last week at a best Monday price of 45/1, the PGA Tour stays in Mexico with the World Wide Technology Championship.

With only this and 2 more tournaments – ending with the RSM Classic – in terms of 2026 PGA Tour events left to play, there are plenty of motivating factors this week such as:

  • Official World Golf Ranking top 50 spot (invite for the 2027 Masters arriving pre-Christmas for those not already exempt)
  • AON Next 10 FedExCup Fall Series spot (entry into the big money AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am & Genesis Invitational tournaments early in 2027)
  • FedExCup Fall Series top 100 (Full Tour Card playing privileges for 2027 for those not already exempt)
  • FedExCup Fall Series top 101 – 125 (Conditional Your Status for 2027 for those not already exempt)

It’s a strong enough Fall Series field this week in Cabo. Ben Griffin makes his third PGA Tour title defence – he’s already finished 10th and 3rd when defending. Blades Brown, Ryan Gerard, Stephan Jaeger, Ben James, Johnny Keefer, Michael Kim, Jackson Koivun, Keith Mitchell, Marco Penge, Seamus Power, Jordan Smith and Nick Taylor all play.

Before we go into the detail surrounding the World Wide Technology Championship, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,600 strong private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

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You can read Liam Williams’ Power Rankings for the WWT Championship at bet365 News.

Course Guide: Previous host course El Camaleon was a short, flat, coastal affair on the Caribbean Sea, where accuracy counted. 2023 saw the WWT Championship move to Baja California, which is effectively the Mexican-controlled “Lower California”, and the fashionable resort of Cabo San Lucas. El Cardonal Golf Course is an altogether different course set in desert conditions with wide fairways, much longer in length, and overlooking the Pacific Ocean.

El Cardonal at Diamante, Los Cabos, Mexico: Designer: Tiger Woods 2014; Course Type: Desert, Resort, Long; Par: 72; Length: 7,452 yards; number of Holes with Water Hazards In-Play: 1; Number of Sand Bunkers: 48; Acres of Fairway: 97; Fairways: Platinum Paspalum; Rough: None; Greens: 8,300 sq.ft average featuring Platinum Paspalum; Tournament Stimp: 11ft.

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for El Cardonal and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:

  • El Cardonal: Average 60 yards up to 70 yards wide.
  • Black Desert: Average 30 yards up to 70-100 yards at 300 yards.
  • The Cliffs at Walnut Cove: 35-45 yards at 300 yards.
  • East Lake: 30-32 yards at 300 yards.
  • Bellerive: 27-29 yards at 300 yards.
  • TPC Southwind: 25 yards at 300 yards.
  • Sedgefield Country Club: 28 yards at 300 yards.
  • Detroit Golf Club: 26 yards at 300 yards.
  • TPC Twin Cities: 36 yards at 300 yards.
  • Corales GC: 75 yards at 300 yards.
  • Hurstbourne CC: 25-30 yards at 300 yards
  • TPC Deere Run: 36 yards at 300 yards.
  • TPC River Highlands: 29 yards at 300 yards.
  • Shinnecock Hills: 45 yards at 300 yards.
  • TPC Toronto: 35-37 yards at 300 yards.
  • Muirfield Village: 24 yards at 300 yards.
  • Colonial: 25-30 yards at 300 yards.
  • TPC Craig Ranch: 25-28 yards.
  • Aronimink: 30 yards.
  • Quail Hollow: 28 yards.
  • Blue Monster, Doral: 25-40 yards.
  • Harbour Town: 22-25 yards.
  • Augusta National: Average 50 yards.
  • Oaks Course: 25-30 yards.
  • Memorial Park: 30–40 yards.
  • Copperhead: Average 20 yards.
  • TPC Sawgrass: Average 28 yards.
  • Bay Hill: Average 30 yards.
  • PGA National: Average 28 yards.
  • Riviera: Average 27 yards.
  • Pebble Beach: Average 30-33 yards. Spyglass Hill: 25-30 yards.
  • TPC Scottsdale: Average 38 yards.
  • Torrey Pines South: Average 24-27 yards. Torrey Pines North: Average 24-27 yards.
  • Pete Dye Stadium: Average 33 yards.

Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:

  • 2025: 68.90 (-3.10), Rank 46 of 50 courses
  • 2024: 70.26 (-1.74), Rank 37 of 51 courses
  • 2023: 68.99 (-3.01), Rank 56 of 58 courses

Course Overview: El Cardonal opened in 2014. This course is part of the successful Diamante Resort, and that’s worthy of note – whatever you read it’s effectively designed for the amateur golfer market – and -27/261, -24/264 and -29/259 have won this across the opening 3 renewals.

The raw course numbers are also interesting. On the scorecard it’s a 7,452 yard, par 72. It’s the typical par 72 format so features 4 par-3s and 4 par-5s. The course is also within a stone’s throw of the Pacific coastline, so as it’s pretty much at sea-level it plays all of that yardage.

The intrigue continues further as despite having panoramic views of the sea, the course is set in desert terrain featuring cacti, palo verde trees, scrubby desert flora, and encroaching desert arroyos. Those arroyos also effectively form the off-fairway hazards as this course features short fairway all the way. There’s no rough and errant tee shots in many cases will find a sandy or rocky location. Fairways are 60 to 70 yards wide in landing areas making them generous in the extreme, with only the Plantation Course at Kapalua and Black Desert Resort in Utah featuring such wide landing areas. In reality though, there are few forced carries with arroyos flanking holes rather than cutting across them in the main.

That link to Kapalua also holds further water as this El Cardonal layout is set on land which drops 240 feet along the mile-long stretch from the 17th tee to the 3rd fairway. There are undulations aplenty and this terrain proves demanding for both players and caddies. Flat holes are few and far between with ascending (par-5 14th climbs the most at 80 feet) and descending (par-5 6th falls the most at 70 feet) holes the norm.

Greens are huge which at 8,300 sq.ft. on average are some of the largest on the PGA Tour and tend to be canted diagonally. They are pretty flat. The course is also bedecked in Platinum Paspalum from tee to fairway to green. There’s no rough, with stray drives heading directly into bunkers.

WWT Championship Winners: Hosted at El Cardonal: 2025: Ben Griffin (-29); 2024: Austin Eckroat: (-24); 2023: Erik van Rooyen (-27); Hosted at El Camaleon: 2022: Russell Henley (-23); 2021: Viktor Hovland (-23); 2020: Viktor Hovland (-20); 2019: Brendon Todd (-20); 2018: Matt Kuchar (-22); 2017: Patton Kizzire (-19); 2016: Pat Perez (-21); 2015: Graeme McDowell (-18); 2014: Charley Hoffman (-17); 2013: Harris English (-21); 2012: John Huh (-13); 2011: Johnson Wagner (-17); 2010: Cameron Beckman (-15).

  • 2025: Ben Griffin 65-65-66-63 -29/259 AM/PM Split
  • 2024: Austin Eckroat 68-67-66-63 -24/264 PM/AM Split
  • 2023: Erik van Rooyen 68-64-66-63 -27/261 AM/PM Split

OWGR of WWT Championship Winners: 2025: B Griffin 12; 2024: Eckroat 59; 2023: van Rooyen 189; 2022: Henley 59; 2021: Hovland 17; 2020: Hovland 26; 2019: Todd 185; 2018: Kuchar 40.

Datagolf Ranking Bank of WWT Championship Winners: 2025: B Griffin 7; 2024: Eckroat 109; 2023: van Rooyen 179; 2022: Henley 48; 2021: Hovland 14.

Cut Line: 2025: -5; 2024: -2; 2023: -5.

Lead Score Progression at El Cardonal:

  • 2025: Round 1 -11; Round 2 -17; Round 3 -22; Round 4 -29.
  • 2024: Round 1 -5; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -16; Round 4 -24.
  • 2023: Round 1 -10; Round 2 -16; Round 3 -19; Round 4 -27.

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the WWT Championship winners here at El Cardonal:

  • 2025 – Ben Griffin: Round 1: 8th, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 3rd.
  • 2024 – Austin Eckroat: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 4th.
  • 2023 – Erik van Rooyen: Round 1: 28th, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 3rd.

Shots From the Lead: Below are the WWT Championship winners here at El Cardonal and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:

  • 2025 – Ben Griffin: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 2 back.
  • 2024 – Austin Eckroat: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 1 back.
  • 2023 – Erik van Rooyen: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 1 back.

Incoming Form of WWT Championship winners since 2013:

  • Ben Griffin: 32nd India/2nd Fortinet/10th Tour/12th BMW.
  • Austin Eckroat: 46th Shriners/46th BMW/18th St Jude/8th Wyndham.
  • Erik van Rooyen: 23rd Shriners/16th Sanderson/30th Fortinet/16th Irish Open.
  • Russell Henley: 45th CJ Cup/MC Sanderson/35th BMW/ MC St Jude.
  • Viktor Hovland: 18th CJ Cup/44th Shriners/49th BMW PGA/5th Tour.
  • Viktor Hovland: 15th Houston/47th ZOZO/12th CJ Cup/13th US Open.
  • Brendon Todd: 1st Bermuda/28th Houston/MC Shiners/MC Safeway.
  • Matt Kuchar: 57th Shriners/28th Dunhill Links/43rd Dell Tech/60th Northern Trust.
  • Patton Kizzire: 4th Shriners/10th Sanderson/MC Safeway /MC Dell Tech.
  • Pat Perez: 7th Shriners/33rd CIMB.
  • Graeme McDowell: 37th Turkey/24th Hong Kong/30th British Masters/19th Dunhill Links.
  • Charley Hoffman: 35th Sanderson/MC McGladrey/MC Shriners/53rd BMW.
  • Harris English: 27th McGladrey/7th CIMB/40th Shriners/50th BMW.

Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: 1) Ben Kohles; 2) Zac Blair; 3) Chris Kirk; 4) Joel Dahmen; 5) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 6) Jackson Suber; 7) Zach Bauchou; 8) Ben James; 9) Blades Brown; 10) Seamus Power.

Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.

WWT Championship Winning Prices: 2025: B Griffin 12/1JF; 2024: Eckroat 45/1; 2023: van Rooyen 100/1; 2022: Henley 55/1; 2021: Hovland 18/1; 2020: Hovland 22/1; 2019: Todd 110/1; 2018: Kuchar 60/1; 2017: Kizzire 70/1; 2016: Perez 125/1; 2015: McDowell 33/1; 2014: Hoffman 60/1; 2013: English 25/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 46/1; Overall Average: 53/1.

Historical Weather:

  • 2025: Thursday: Sunny. High of 86. Wind W 7-14 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 84. Wind W 6-12 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 84. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 84. Wind SW 5-10 mph.
  • 2024: Thursday: Mostly sunny with wind. High of 76. Wind WNW 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 79. Wind WNW 10-15 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 79. Wind WSW 7-12 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 79. Wind WSW 8-13 mph.
  • 2023: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 85. Wind WSW 7-13 mph, with gusts to 21 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 85. Wind W 7-13 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 85. Wind W 10-15 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 85. Wind W 7-12 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Los Cabos, Mexico is here. There’s been plenty of precipitation in the build-up to the tournament with 214 mm (8.4 inches) across October, with 71mm (2.8 inches) of that in the past week. I’d expect soft conditions, so cut in the fairways and slow, receptive greens. With little in the way of significant wind plus warm 27-28 degrees Celsius – 81-82 Fahrenheit – temperatures, expect super low scoring.

Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Amgen Irish Open which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

  • Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Keith Mitchell; 2) Joel Dahmen; 3) Steven Fisk / Ben James; 5) David Ford; 6) Blades Brown; 7) Neal Shipley; 8) Kris Ventura; 9) Jesper Svensson; 10) Gordon Sargent; 11) Rico Hoey / Sami Valimaki; 13) Taylor Pendrith; 14) Haotong Li; 15) Zach Bauchou; 16) Takumi Kanaya / Johnny Keefer; 18) Seamus Power; 19) Ryan Gerard; 20) Ben Kohles / Isaiah Salinda / Kevin Streelman / Jackson Suber / Sudarshan Yellamaraju; 25) John VanDerLaan.
  • Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Chris Kirk; 2) Ryan Gerard; 3) Ben Kohles; 4) Jackson Suber; 5) Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen; 6) Keith Mitchell; 7) Johnny Keefer; 8) Marty Dou; 9) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Blades Brown / Trace Crowe / Patrick Rodgers; 13) Zach Bauchou / Ben James / Billy Horschel; 16) Stephan Jaeger; 17) John Parry / Kevin Roy / Karl Vilips; 20) Chandler Blanchet / Austin Eckroat; 22) Ben Griffin / Ben Silverman; 24) Michael Kim / Gordon Sargent.
  • Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Ben Griffin; 2) Stephan Jaeger / Alvaro Ortiz; 4) Nick Taylor; 5) Mackenzie Hughes; 6) Chris Kirk / Keith Mitchell; 8) Seamus Power / Sami Valimaki; 10) Ryan Gerard / Takumi Kanaya / Vince Whaley; 13) Zach Bauchou / Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Nick Dunlap / David Skinns / Sudarshan Yellamaraju; 18) Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen; 19) Ben Kohles / Chad Ramey; 21) Gordon Sargent; 22) Danny Walker; 23) Brice Garnett; 24) Jackson Koivun / Jordan Smith.
  • Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Keith Mitchell; 2) Ryan Gerard; 3) Chris Kirk; 4) Blades Brown; 5) Ben Kohles; 6) Zach Bauchou / Gordon Sargent; 8) Johnny Keefer / Neal Shipley; 10) Ben James / Jackson Suber; 12) Ben Griffin; 13) Kris Ventura / Karl Vilips; 15) John Parry; 16) Steven Fisk / Rico Hoey / Sudarshan Yellamaraju; 19) Stephan Jaeger / Ben Silverman; 21) Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen; 22) Kevin Roy; 23) Seamus Power / Isaiah Salinda / Danny Walker.
  • Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Ben Griffin; 2) Alvaro Ortiz; 3) Michael Kim; 4) Keith Mitchell; 5) Adrien Dumont de Chassart; 6) Sami Valimaki; 7) Billy Horschel; 8) Trace Crowe / A.J. Ewart; 10) Davis Riley; 11) Vince Whaley; 12) Christo Lamprecht; 13) Steven Fisk / Chad Ramey; 15) Max Greyserman; 16) Peter Malnati; 17) Alejandro Tosti; 18) Taylor Moore; 19) David Ford / Seamus Power; 21) Takumi Kanaya / Neal Shipley / Aaron Wise; 24) Pierceson Coody; 25) Luke Clanton / Tyler Duncan / Garrick Higgo / Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen.
  • Top 25 SG Total: 1) Keith Mitchell; 2) Ben Griffin; 3) Chris Kirk; 4) Sami Valimaki; 5) Ryan Gerard / Michael Kim / Ben Kohles / Neal Shipley; 9) Blades Brown / Trace Crowe; 11) Steven Fisk; 12) Billy Horschel; 13) Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen; 14) Stephan Jaeger / Gordon Sargent; 16) Zach Bauchou / Ben James; 18) Johnny Keefer / Seamus Power / Ben Silverman / Karl Vilips; 22) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Jackson Suber; 24) Alvaro Ortiz; 25) Luke Clanton / Mackenzie Hughes / Justin Lower / Kris Ventura.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of WWT Championship winners gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test

  • 2025, Ben Griffin (-29). 299 yards (60th), 91.1% fairways (26th), 87.5% greens in regulation (10th), 77.8 % scrambling (5th), 1.59 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2024, Austin Eckroat (-24). 288 yards (60th), 91.1% fairways (29th), 83.3% greens in regulation (8th), 66.7 % scrambling (13th), 1.63 putts per GIR (4th).
  • 2023, Erik van Rooyen (-27). 301 yards (43rd), 92.9% fairways (25th), 86.1% greens in regulation (13th), 60.0 % scrambling (29th), 1.55 putts per GIR (2nd).

Tournament Skill Averages:

  • Driving Distance: 54th, Driving Accuracy: 27th, Greens in Regulation: 10th, Scrambling: 16th, Putting Average 3rd.

Let’s take a view from players as to how El Cardonal sets-up and what specific skills it requires:

Ben Griffin (2025): “It’s been an awesome time so far in Cabo and my game has been solid.  Been hitting a lot of fairways, hitting a lot of greens, giving myself a lot of looks.  Feel like I could be even lower, just with a couple misses that I’ve had, a couple reads more than anything.  They can be a little tricky to read sometimes.

Yeah, 15 played the most difficult hole today. Fortunately I’ve played here every single year since they started coming to Diamante.  I learned right from the get-go just from playing partners I was playing with that that’s just not a pin you can go for.  Rookies coming here for the first time, you might overlook it a little bit and try to get aggressive, and that’s a pin that can make or break your tournament. Even though I had pretty much a wedge in my hand, or it would have been 9 if I had gone at the pin, I was playing significantly away from that pin and just trying to put it in the middle and try and get out of there with a 4 because 4 on that hole, to most pins but specifically that back left, if I make a 4 there I’m picking up — most years it’s between a third and a half shot.   Just trying to play to my strengths.  There’s a lot of pins out there that I can attack and try to make birdies, and that’s just one that you can.  But you can also make a 7 or 8 very fast, and I’m sure there were some guys that probably did that today.

The biggest thing about winning that I’ve learned?  You’ve got to be aggressive the entire time.  No lead is really safe, especially at a course like this where the 18th hole guys are making eagles or have a chance to.”

Austin Eckroat (2024): “Really the last two holes, for the whole week so far is really the only ones that were outside chances. The rest of them have been, the par 5s being gettable. Then some really good approach shots. Maybe if the putter will heat up, we’ll have a really special week.

For that first day we had an extremely windy day. Honestly, outside of today, that was probably the second best round I played this week. To shoot 4 under on a day like that was really good. Then it was just kind of we had a similar wind direction every day and you could kind of get comfortable with certain tee balls with the wind direction. After Thursday the wind was pretty consistent on the amount until late yesterday, whenever we were playing hole 15 with 20-, 25-mile-an-hour gusts on the hardest hole on the golf course.

I think it could kind of validate the win I had earlier this season. Obviously that was huge for my career. Winning twice is really special because it means you really can do it. Yeah, just good confidence going into next season.

I don’t know, but there’s something about this place, I guess. It’s funny, before I won in Palm Beaches earlier this year, that was my last win was in Cabo, so it had been five years between wins. ”

Erik Van Rooyen (2023): “You know, if it’s as calm as it was this morning, someone’s going to get to 25. So just keep making birdies.

The course matches me great. I’m a great iron player. Like I said, the fairways are wide so everyone’s going to be hitting all of them. It’s a second shot golf course. There’s lots of little pockets in the greens and it kind of suits my game. I’ve putted well this week as well, so everything’s coming together nicely.”

Matt Kuchar (2023): “A lot of this place is very generous fairways. Fairways are pretty easy to find. It’s I think kind of a second-shot golf course, back nine even more so than the front nine. Back nine feels like they have a lot of rejection greens, the front nine are more collection greens. So on the back nine you’ve really got to kind of focus on avoiding a few of those big fall-offs on the greens and I was able to do that pretty well today.

It was a lot of good steady golf. The 12th hole is a difficult green, hit just a 9-iron in, but nice approach shot, my third hole of the day to get going with a birdie there.  It was just steady golf. I felt good over the driver. It’s a thing, these fairways are forgiving, but if you do miss it’s big trouble. You want to make sure you’re in these fairways. Even though they’re pretty wide, pretty forgiving, if you do get off, there are big numbers to be had.

Listen, the 15th hole is I think one everybody’s kind of got circled in their yardage book, this one could get you in some trouble. I hit a terrible tee shot, tried to ride the wind, tried to have a slightly shorter club in and ended up hitting a big hook instead of a little draw. It was a big hook in the junk. That’s the only one I’d love to have back.”

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2023. Full First Round Leader stats are here.

  • 2025 – Dunlap, Valimaki – Both AM Wave -11/61 – 150/1, 100/1
  • 2024 – Hoey, Streelman, Whitney – 1 AM / 2 PM wave split -5/67 – 55/1, 100/1, 200/1
  • 2023 – Percy – PM Wave -10/62 175/1

For the record, here’s the breakdown of Paspalum PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

  • 2 – Tony Finau, Brice Garnett.
  • 1 – Rafael Campos, Joel Dahmen, Austin Eckroat, Ben Griffin, Garrick Higgo, Billy Horschel, Patton Kizzire, Matt Kuchar, Chad Ramey, Erik van Rooyen, Karl Vilips.

The new El Cardonal at Diamante layout certainly plays a little differently to its predecessor El Camaleon. A desert-style, resort golf course with wide fairways, undulations aplenty and huge green complexes, Erik van Rooyen, Austin Eckroat and Ben Griffin are the winners here so far.

My Final WWT Championship Tips Are As Follows:

Ben James 2pts EW 20/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

If we are to see a breakout winner this week at El Cardonal then Ben James is top of my list. We’ve now seen 44 PGA Tour rounds of golf from Benjamin in 2026 and still no PGA Tour statistic rankings, but I’ve been anal enough to work out that he’d sit 2nd for Scoring Average (Adjusted), T7 for Birdie Average, 2nd for Bogey Avoidance (critical here), 2nd for Driving Accuracy, 1st for Greens in Regulation, plus from a Strokes Gained perspective, 15th for Off the Tee, 20th for Approach, 10th for Tee to Green, 33rd for Putting and 3rd for Strokes Gained Total. The 23 year-old from Connecticut can play.

T3 for Final 54 Hole Scoring last week at the Mexico Open, he gained a stroke per round on the Greens, 1.2 strokes per round on Approach, and 1.1 strokes per round Off the Tee over those closing 54 holes. Naturally the Signature Course at VidantaWorld features Platinum Paspalum, the same as we have here at El Cardonal.

Wide fairways and a course where exact approach play is critical will suit James, who is gunning for his maiden PGA Tour win and the AON Next 10 FedExCup Fall Series, plus an OWGR top 50 spot that would go with it.

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Chris Kirk 1.5pts EW 33/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

I’ll stick with Chris Kirk for a second consecutive play. He was T6 in Bermuda, 3 shots back of Power and Smotherman, when the tournament got called, so he returned me a slither of each-way money. Whether he’d have moved forward or gone backwards in a Round 4 group that included Sunday bottlers Danny Walker and Chan Kim we will never know.

Fact is though that despite playing some great golf over the past 3 months, Chris sits at 116th in the FedEx Cup Fall Points List so he needs to continue generating strong results to keep his playing privileges for 2027. Across my 8-week Strokes Gained Analysis, in this field he ranks in the top 10 for Around the Green and the top 5 for Approach, Tee to Green and Current Form. He’s also a rarity in this field – a 6-time PGA Tour winner, whose last win came at -29/263 at the topography-similar Plantation Course at Kapalua.

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Stephan Jaeger 1.5pts EW 40/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Stephan Jaeger loves to go low and also plays very nicely on Paspalum. As a quick synopsis looking at our Predictor model variables on the PGA Tour, you’ll find the German T5 for par-5 Performance (handy on a Par 72) and T6 for Birdies per Round. The winning target here will suit. Then a handy Predictor variable is Paspalum results over the past 5 years – Jaeger sits T6. Then with El Cardonal receiving 214 mm (8.4 inches) across October, with 71mm (2.8 inches) of that in the past week, I’d expect cut in the fairways and typically slow, target practice greens. The Soft Course predictor variable sees Stephan sitting T2, just a spot behind defending champion Ben Griffin.

Rested following on from 25th at the Bank of Utah and a very sporty 4th at the Baycurrent Classic in Japan, the El Cardonal course will suit a player who will hit far more fairways this week than he’s used to. Ranking in this field across my 8-week Strokes Gained Analysis in the top 20 for Strokes Gained on Approach, Tee to Green and in the top 15 for Current Form, Stephan was 45th here in 2023, when 3rd after 36 holes. A non-winner then, if he lands in the same situation heading into this weekend then I could see the 37 year-old hanging around in contention.

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Erik van Rooyen 1pt EW 60/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Despite a back-door 7th last week at the Mexico Open, Erik van Rooyen is still in deep trouble when it comes to participation on the 2027 PGA Tour. A FedEx Cup Fall Series List position of 139 is still 14 spots shy of conditional status. With no winner’s exemption to cling onto, it’s pretty much now or DP World Tour golf for the 36 year-old.

A winner here in 2023, Erik has always been the sort to go well in low-scoring affairs. 1st (2021), 2nd (2025) and 6th (2023) at the Barracuda Championship which used the Modified Stableford Scoring system where Eagles and Birdies are boosted, he’s also finished 2nd (2025) and 19th (2026) at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson birdiefest. Indeed a look at our Predictor variables, which look at a rolling 5 years on the PGA Tour, show van Rooyen ranking in this field T2 for Desert, T4 for Resort Scoring and T5 for Paspalum performances.

A massive 8 Strokes Gained from Tee to Green at VidantaWorld last week was EVR’s best performance on the PGA Tour since his 2nd place finish at the CJ Cup Bryon Nelson behind Scottie Scheffler last year, so he’ll be bursting with enthusiasm arrive here in Cabo.

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Matthieu Pavon 1pt EW 80/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Matthieu Pavon like most in this field needs results now, and the 33 year-old Frenchman is starting to show signs of life as his PGA Tour day of reckoning beckons. From this point on it’s all PGA Tour for Pavon, who sits at 132nd in the FedEx Cup Fall Series List and has his win exemption for the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open victory running out at the season-ending RSM Classic. Remember top 125 for partial status and top 100 for a full PGA Tour card are the hard lines – or of course a victory.

I was on a few weeks back where Matthieu missed the cut in Bermuda. Typically he then sat T2 at the Mexico Open last week heading into Sunday, where ultimately I felt vindicated to a degree when he collapsed to 11th spot, firing 71 when 63s were available. It’s quite easy to put Sunday down to not being in a final group for a chunk of time, but what is for sure is the Frenchman can’t sit back and ponder – he simply has to get on with it and fight for his PGA Tour future.

1st for Approach and 2nd for Tee to Green last week at VidantaWorld highlights a player who, if he focuses on the positives, can contend again this week on the exact same agronomy.

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✅ Bonus code SPORT30 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
✅ Early Outright and FRL odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way

bet365 New Customer Offer: Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration required. The bonus code SPORT30 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 14:17GMT 02.11.26 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.

About The Author - Steve Bamford

Steve Bamford

Steve Bamford is co-founder and part of our editorial team at Golf Betting System and he focuses mainly on the PGA Tour. Steve has been involved in the gambling industry for over 15 years and has a passion for golf as well as football, horse racing and MMA, where he has developed a deep understanding of both online and offline betting gathered through practical experience. Steve also hosts the popular Golf Betting System podcast.

You can find out more about Steve’s involvement with Golf Betting System here.

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