Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Abu Dhabi Aldar Championship Tips 2026

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After a week’s break for the DP World Tour’s leading players to take a slight breather, we’re back for the final two events of the 2026 season and the third edition of the DP World Tour Play-Offs.

With a $9m prize fund and 9,000 Race to Dubai points up for grabs, 9 of the world’s top 50 players are heading to Abu Dhabi for this week’s Rolex Series event, with the top 50 in the Race to Dubai rankings then moving on to the Earth Course in Dubai for next week’s finale.

70 players tee it up here this week headlined by Rory McIlroy, but with the turmoil surrounding the Middle East at present it’s certainly more a case of who’s missing as opposed to who’s attending this week. High-profile omissions include Matt Fitzpatrick, Shane Lowry, Robert MacIntyre, Ludvig Aberg, Justin Rose and Open Champion Ryan Fox to name but a few.

The top 5 in the Race to Dubai are all here though with Eugenio Chacarra looking to extend his lead at the top of the pile with Patrick Reed and Rory McIlroy both playing catch-up, with Casey Jarvis and defending Abu Dhabi champion Aaron Rai a little further adrift. Rory tops the betting at a best-priced 11/2 at the time of writing, with Tommy Fleetwood at 7/1 and Jon Rahm hovering between 9/1 and 10/1.

Before we go into more detail and my final Abu Dhabi Championship tips, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System as the golfing year reaches its conclusion. Welcome to you all and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube, and our hugely popular, 6,600-strong private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

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Course Overview: After 16 years at the Abu Dhabi Golf Club, the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship moved to pastures new in 2022 and we head back for a fifth look at Yas Links again this year.

Listed as a 7,438 yard Par 72, the course is a typical 36/36 setup with 4 par-5s and 4 par-3s. Sub-400 yard Par-4s followed by mid-length Par-5s open both sets of 9 and should allow players the opportunity to get off to a positive start before the course bites back with some more stringent holes. The 646 yard Par-5 18th is the longest on the course and can play reasonably tough when the back tee is used, however the other Par-5s ranked as the three easiest holes last year and are reachable for those finding a good drive.

Designed by Kyle Phillips (think Kingsbarns, Bernardus Golf and Verdura in Sicily amongst others) and opened in 2010, this course falls into the links-style category as all modern imitations do, however with its exposed fairways, fescue and pot bunkers, it certainly does a fair impression of a links, especially when the wind blows. Paspalum grass has been used from tee to green.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Abu Dhabi Championship that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.

As noted above, the event moved to its current venue in 2022 so event history needs to be considered accordingly: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Form/Event Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2025: Aaron Rai, 22/1; 2024: Paul Waring, 125/1; 2023: Victor Perez, 55/1; 2022: Thomas Pieters, 40/1; 2021: Tyrrell Hatton, 12/1;  2020: Lee Westwood, 90/1; 2019: Shane Lowry, 60/1; 2018: Tommy Fleetwood, 20/1; 2017: Tommy Fleetwood, 60/1; 2016: Rickie Fowler, 16/1; 2015: Gary Stal, 150/1; 2014: Pablo Larrazabal, 125/1; 2013: Jamie Donaldson, 66/1; 2012: Robert Rock, 150/1; 2011: Martin Kaymer, 8/1, 2010: Martin Kaymer, 14/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the Abu Dhabi region is here.

Clear and sunny conditions with temperatures peaking in the low 90s Fahrenheit are expected, with light winds reaching around 10mph in the afternoons.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Looking at the traditional stats for our four winners here at Yas Links gives us a few clues as to what may be required to succeed around these parts:

  • 2025: Aaron Rai (-25); 296 yards (54th), 82.1% fairways (2nd), 91.7% greens in regulation (1st), 50% scrambling (46th), 1.66 putts per GIR (5th)
  • 2024: Paul Waring (-24); 305 yards (51st), 75% fairways (20th), 86.1% greens in regulation (13th), 70% scrambling (8th), 1.65 putts per GIR (4th)
  • 2023: Victor Perez (-18); 319 yards (4th), 71.4% fairways (11th), 81.9% greens in regulation (20th), 61.5% scrambling (19th), 1.68 putts per GIR (2nd)
  • 2022: Thomas Pieters (-10); 317 yards (23rd), 69.6% fairways (10th), 79.2% greens in regulation (9th), 86.7% scrambling (1st), 1.89 putts per GIR (59th)

Greens are large here at Yas Links and GIR numbers were really quite consistent across the whole field on all four renewals, with the overall level down in 2022 due to windier conditions. With the majority of the field finding between 70-80% of greens in the requisite number, how players performed on and around the greens determined the shape of the final leaderboard.

2022 was trickier as I mentioned – the winning score at 10-under par was a full 15 strokes worse than last year – and Thomas Pieters navigated to victory through the strongest scrambling performance on show, getting up and down 86.7% of the time and making just 5 bogeys overall on the week. This week promises to be much calmer than 2022 and I suspect last year will be a better proxy for our winner in that respect.

Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, the same four players performed as follows:

  • 2025: Aaron Rai: T: 27th; A: 1st; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 17th; P: 20th
  • 2024: Paul Waring: T: 17th; A: 2nd; T2G: 3rd; ATG: 45th; P: 7th
  • 2023: Victor Perez: T: 3rd; A: 48th; T2G: 11th; ATG: 3rd; P: 5th
  • 2022: Thomas Pieters: T: 2nd; A: 23rd; T2G: 1st; ATG: 12th; P: 30th

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

The most consistent stat over the four renewals has been SG Tee to Green which looks like a pre-requisite here at Yas Links.

Incoming Form: All 14 winners of the Abu Dhabi Championship listed below had recorded a top-12 finish in one of their previous 4 starts and that trend can be extended back for all of Kaymer, Casey and DiMarco’s victories also, so a positive form line looks like a good starting point this week.

  • 2025: Aaron Rai: 19/MC/MC/33/17/47/34/5/22/33/MC/3
  • 2024: Paul Waring: 68/MC/WD/21/6/MC/25/12/45/MC/37/7
  • 2023: Victor Perez: 53/MC/34/23/MC/50/3/30/36/MC/44/12
  • 2022: Thomas Pieters: 35/16/54/MC/18/9/9/39/MC/16/1/15
  • 2021: Tyrrell Hatton: MC/25/16/5/MC/1/3/28/7/MC/23/8
  • 2020: Lee Westwood: 55/4/MC/28/MC/MC/MC/60/56/10/6/38
  • 2019: Shane Lowry: MC/12/15/12/MC/6/MC/34/2/14/35/30
  • 2018: Tommy Fleetwood: 27/28/61/MC/25/6/20/23/10/21/6/3
  • 2017: Tommy Fleetwood: 16/49/10/7/13/15/4/37/22/14/9/3
  • 2016: Rickie Fowler: 30/2/10/30/MC/1/4/12/25/17/3/5
  • 2015: Gary Stal: 18/51/70/39/MC/66/19/32/33/23/MC/5
  • 2014: Pablo Larrazabal: MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/9/17/8/5/53/26/MC
  • 2013: Jamie Donaldson: 60/36/7/50/9/21/MC/6/16/42/9/16
  • 2012: Robert Rock: MC/MC/25/MC/70/28/33/38/8/9/12

Event Form. To balance the clear correlation between current form and success in this event over the past 14 years, before Tommy Fleetwood retained his trophy in 2017 the previous 6 winners hadn’t mustered a single top-10 between them in this event prior to victory, so for all of Casey and Kaymer’s domination, a sparkling event history doesn’t look to be an absolute pre-requisite.

That said Shane Lowry, Lee Westwood, Tyrrell Hatton, Victor Perez and Paul Waring each had a top-6 finish to their name in Abu Dhabi, albeit quite distant, and Thomas Pieters had 3 top-5 finishes at the previous venue before we moved here to Yas Links.

Aaron Rai’s event form was understated before his win 12 months ago, although his historical form was all at Abu Dhabi GC as opposed to Yas Links:

  • 2025: Aaron Rai: 54/MC/25
  • 2024: Paul Waring: MC/37/46/MC/37/MC/MC/MC/6/12/MC/MC/MC
  • 2023: Victor Perez: 54/2/46/58
  • 2022: Thomas Pieters: MC/4/2/MC/5/16/30/41
  • 2021: Tyrrell Hatton: 10/6/46/13/15/MC
  • 2020: Lee Westwood: 2/MC/64/17/MC/8/MC/16
  • 2019: Shane Lowry: 4/MC/MC/MC
  • 2018: Tommy Fleetwood: MC/MC/19/MC/MC/1
  • 2017: Tommy Fleetwood: MC/MC/19/MC/MC
  • 2016: Rickie Fowler: 66
  • 2015: Gary Stal: MC
  • 2014: Pablo Larrazabal: 42/43/11/MC/39
  • 2013: Jamie Donaldson: MC/23/50/21/11/30
  • 2012: Robert Rock: 59/47/MC/MC

One final point of note is that the history of short-priced chances doesn’t read well here: 2013 McIlroy (5/1), Woods (15/2); 2014: McIlroy (6/1), Stenson (8/1); 2015: McIlroy (4/1); 2016: McIlroy (4/1), Spieth (9/2); 2017: Johnson (6/1), Stenson (7/1); 2018: Johnson (5/1), Rose (8/1), McIlroy (8/1); 2019: Dustin Johnson (6/1), Brooks Koepka (9/1), Tommy Fleetwood (10/1); 2020: Patrick Cantlay (8/1), Brooks Koepka (10/1). Tommy Fleetwood (10/1); 2021: Rory McIlroy (6/1), Justin Thomas (13/2); 2022: Collin Morikawa (15/2), Rory McIlroy (8/1), Viktor Hovland (10/1); 2023: Tyrrell Hatton (11/1), Tommy Fleetwood (11/1); 2024: Rory McIlroy (9/2), Tyrrell Hatton (6/1), Tommy Fleetwood (8/1); 2025: Rory McIlroy (5/1), Tommy Fleetwood (5/1), Tyrrell Hatton (17/2), Ludvig Aberg (17/2) – these well-fancied players all failed to get over the line in Abu Dhabi.

My Final Abu Dhabi Aldar Championship Tips Are As Follows:

Aaron Rai 3pts EW 14/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

This event has been something of a bloodbath for single-digit chances and with the main event looming next week at the Earth Course, I’m happy to swerve the likes of McIlroy, Fleetwood and Rahm at the top of the market and side with defending champion Aaron Rai who holds a similar position in the betting to that of 12 months ago.

At 5th on the Race to Dubai, if the US PGA Champion has any lingering hopes of topping the tree overall a week on Sunday then it’s pretty much a victory here or the chance has gone, and after the season he’s had perhaps there’s scope for another huge effort here. Aside from his success at Aronimink back in May, the Wolverhampton man also finished runner-up at the DP World Tour’s flagship event at Wentworth back in September, and that in itself is worth of note even though we’re six weeks or so further down the line now.

A cursory look through Rai’s career record highlights that his victories have often followed a strong performance on one of his most recent outings. That doesn’t tend to help us much in terms of his odds, however when he’s playing well he’s one to follow and that 2nd place finish in Surrey is incontrovertible evidence. His Scottish Open and US PGA Championship wins all built on a top-5 finish or better on the previous outing, as did his win here last year, and his 2024 Wyndham Championship victory followed a 4th place finish in Scotland on his penultimate start. Even his breakthrough win back in 2018 in Hong Kong came hot on the heels of a top-10 finish a fortnight before at Sun City.

Rai disappointed when carrying our money on his last start in India, with the putter proving ice cold as he eventually finished in a tie for 20th place. He did, however, top the SG Tee to Green statistic on the week, and it’s encouraging to note that his long game was so strong here last year that he gained less than two strokes with the flat stick over the four days combined and still shot -25. A similar performance and result isn’t out of the equation this week in my view.

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Victor Perez 2pts EW 28/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Another former Yas Links winner, Victor Perez, also appeals this week as he looks to cement his position in next week’s finale in Dubai from a Race to Dubai ranking of 54th heading into this week.

The Frenchman won his third of three DP World Tour titles when carrying our money here at the start of 2023 when the event was part of the early-season Middle East swing, building on victories at the Dunhill Links and Dutch Open to record his biggest career title and first Rolex Series win.

The riches of LIV Golf lured the 34 year-old to relinquish his PGA Tour card at the end of 2025, however he’s kept his hand in at DP World our level this season alongside his LIV outings, finishing 2nd at the Soudal Open as well as 9th at both the BMW International Open and Scottish Open, before finishing runner-up to Grant Forrest at the Spanish Open on his last start, missing a ten-footer on the 72nd hole that would have otherwise given him a chance in a play-off.

Disappointment aside in Madrid, Victor played some very tidy golf from tee-to-green which marries up very nicely with the demands here at Yas Links. 8th for SG Approach, 5th for SG Off the Tee and 5th also for SG Tee to Green,  his traditional stats also stuck out like a sore thumb by ranking 2nd for fairways found and 1st for GIR on the week. That’s very much in line with Aaron Rai here 12 months ago.

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Joe Dean 1pt EW 55/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

If Victor Perez was entitled to be disappointed with how the Spanish Open panned out, then so was Joe Dean who snatched defeat from the jaws of victory while carrying our money.

Tied for the lead heading into Sunday despite a late wobble as he finished off his third round, the Englishman got himself back into a winning position with a birdie on the 15th hole to once again tie the lead with three holes to play. A missed 2-foot par putt on the next whole put paid to that though before he made a mess of the final two holes to ultimately finish in a tie for 5th.

In truth there were enough chances for Joe to have been a long way clear by that point in proceedings, having missed a number of short putts on the week which was ultimately reflected in him ranking 64th of those who made the weekend for SG Putting. The eye-catching stat though was undoubtedly his SG Tee to Green performance where he gained over 12 shots in total to top the statistic on the week, and that’s encouraging for this week given what we’ve seen here in recent years.

59th and 49th here at Yas Links explains why the Sheffield man is so far down the betting, however at 14th in the Race to Dubai and currently in possession of the final PGA Tour card for next year as things stand, I suspect motivation and desire could trump course form this week here for the former Morrisons delivery driver.

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Dan Bradbury 1pt EW 100/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Finally, another player whose game fits Yas Links but is yet to make an impression here is Dan Bradbury. When on his game, the Englishman is one of the strongest iron-play performers on the DP World Tour – a strength which has seen him notch three victories at this level already in the four years that he’s been on Tour.

The most recent of those wins came at the Joburg Open in March, a victory which has ultimately given him a chance of gaining promotion to the PGA Tour next year if he can muster something special either this week or next. At 19th on the Race to Dubai there are four players between him and Joe Dean who holds the final card currently, however such are the points available over the next fortnight that Dan will know that anything is possible.

A form line of seven missed cuts from eight starts from July through to mid-September has improved as the season’s drawn to its conclusion, with 14th at the Open de France, 34th in India and 22nd last time out at in South Korea showing definite progress. 3rd for SG Approach at Le Golf National and 2nd on that same count at Woo Jeong Hills suggests that his primary weapon is firing once again, and with his place at next week’s finale guaranteed perhaps Dan can attack this week and produce a vastly improved result here from previous finishes of 60th and 46th.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 15:00GMT 2.11.26 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.

About The Author - Paul Williams

Paul Williams

Paul Williams is co-founder and part of our editorial team at Golf Betting System and he focuses mainly on the DP World Tour. Paul has been involved in the gambling industry for over 15 years and has a passion for golf as well as football and horse racing, where he has developed a deep understanding of both online and offline betting gathered through practical experience. Paul also contributes weekly to the popular Golf Betting System podcast.

You can find out more about Paul’s involvement with Golf Betting System here.

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