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Although the Rolex Series may have relegated this week’s Alfred Dunhill Links a little in terms of stature in recent years, it’s still more than a decent title to win with a $5m prize fund up for grabs, plus the event is equally about the celebrity amateurs who play alongside their golfing heroes at and around the Home of Golf for 4 days.
The event is played over 3 courses for the first 3 days – Kingsbarns, Carnoustie and St Andrews – then the final round is contested around the Old Course with slightly trickier pin positions after 3 days of pretty generous placements to help the amateurs.
Temperament is an important factor in this quirky event where rounds can take over 6 hours to complete, with some of the amateurs barely able to claim ‘hacker’ status. Long waits of half an hour or longer are common on some tees as play grinds to a halt, so those with the personality to enjoy the occasion whilst retaining focus when it’s eventually their time to play a shot are at an advantage.
Given the 3-course rota, an extended field of 168 players are in attendance this week with last week’s winner Matt Fitzpatrick sharing favouritism with Tommy Fleetwood at around the 9/1 mark, with defending champion Robert MacIntyre and Tyrrell Hatton in the 14/1 to 16/1 bracket behind the leading pair.
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Course Overview. The Old Course at St Andrews needs little introduction as the ‘Home of Golf’ is steeped in golfing tradition dating back to the very roots of the sport some 600 years ago. The 17th Road Hole, with its notorious bunker, and the closing 18th, which features the Swilcan Bridge and the Valley of Sin, are the most famous closing holes on the planet, and this rolling links is recognisable worldwide to those with just the most basic of golfing knowledge.
The 7,318 yard, par 72 has a peculiar setup of 14 par-4s and just a pair each of par-3s & par-5s and features 7 double greens with huge, fescue/bentgrass putting surfaces. The other two tracks used for a day each in this event are Carnoustie and Kingsbarns with Carnoustie tending to play the toughest of all 3 courses, however much depends on the strength of the breeze.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Alfred Dunhill Links Championship that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Winners & Prices. 2025, Robert MacIntyre, 16/1; 2024, Tyrrell Hatton, 11/1; 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick, 12/1; 2022: Ryan Fox, 80/1; 2021: Danny Willett, 100/1; 2019: Victor Perez, 175/1; 2018: Lucas Bjerregaard, 50/1; 2017: Tyrrell Hatton, 22/1; 2016: Tyrrell Hatton, 66/1; 2015: Thorbjorn Olesen, 200/1; 2014: Oliver Wilson, 500/1; 2013: David Howell, 125/1; 2012: Branden Grace, 50/1; 2011: Michael Hoey, 250/1; 2010: Martin Kaymer, 16/1.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for St Andrews is here.
Our trip to Scotland will be greeted with fairly pleasant conditions after a wet practice day on Thursday. Largely dry for the first two days with sunny spells, Saturday looks a little duller with light rain before the weather improves again for the final day. Temperatures will peak around 18 Centigrade/64 Fahrenheit with a fairly consistent breeze of 15-20mph throughout.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the last 14 winners of this event gives us a little more insight into the type of player suited to this test. Given the weather issues in 2023, no statistics were captured for eventual winner Matt Fitzpatrick. Stats are from St Andrews rounds only:
With the exception of Carnoustie, fairways are wide and greens large and easy to hit, so much of this event comes down to how players perform on and around the greens.
Converting birdie chances is critical if players are going to compile a contending score and minimising bogeys from off of the green is also vital in an event where somewhere around 20-under is typically the target to be in with a sniff on Sunday afternoon in average conditions.
As well as the event’s nuances that are more obvious in that a slow, pro-am event on 3 different links tracks isn’t likely to suit everyone, there are also some other important points to consider:
Incoming Form. In terms of incoming form, the winners here since 2010 have been very mixed as is reflected by odds ranging from 11/1 to 500/1, and around half of the winners in that period have been 100/1 or longer pre-event.
Martin Kaymer (16/1) in 2010 completed a personal hat-trick of wins here having captured the US PGA Championship and KLM Open in his two previous events. Michael Hoey (250/1) hadn’t finished inside the top 30 in his previous 10 starts, David Howell (125/1) had recorded a solitary top-10 in the previous 6 months, Oliver Wilson (500/1) had failed to make the top-30 in his previous 15 events, most of which were on the Challenge Tour, and Thorbjorn Olesen (200/1) had missed 10 of his previous 14 cuts after his return from a wrist injury.
Despite some good early-season form, Tyrrell Hatton arrived here in 2016 with incoming efforts of MC/MC/45, however his successful defence came off the back of consecutive top-8 finishes. 2012 winner Branden Grace (50/1) had shown poor recent form on the European Tour before winning here, although he did arrive fresh off the back of a low-key victory the previous week on the Sunshine Tour.
Lucas Bjerregaard had shown some of the most consistent form of recent victors here with 4 consecutive top-20 finishes before winning in 2018, included in which was a play-off defeat at Crans on his penultimate start, whereas Victor Perez had finished 10th in Sweden 3 starts before winning in 2019.
After the 2020 break for Covid, Danny Willett won here at 100/1 off of very patchy looking form. 33rd at the Open Championship was solid, however 3 missed cuts and a tailed-off 71st at Wentworth hardly inspired punters. In a similar vein, 2022 winner Ryan Fox had seemingly gone off the boil after some sparkling early season form, however he turned it around here in fine style.
2023 winner Matt Fitzpatrick was a well-fancied 12/1 shot having finished 2nd at the PGA Tour’s BMW Championship and 3rd at Crans-sur-Sierre before finishing a solid 18th at Wentworth prior to forming part of the winning Ryder Cup team.
In 2024, 11/1 third favourite Tyrrell Hatton returned to the DP World Tour following a successful first season on LIV to finish 18th at The Belfry then 10th the Spanish Open before winning here. To complete the picture, Robert MacIntyre had missed his first cut since April on his previous start to winning here, although prior to that his runner-up finishes at the US Open and BMW Championship in the PGA Tour Playoffs more than hinted at some good golf. A very mixed bag indeed:
Event Form. Going back to 2010, around half of the winners had fairly tangible form here – in fact Kaymer, Wilson, Olesen and Willett had all finished runner-up in this event previously in their respective careers and Hatton was defending champion in 2017 before winning again in 2024.
David Howell had 4 top-8 finishes from 12 starts here prior to winning and clearly also enjoys the format. Hoey, Grace, Hatton (in 2016), Bjerregaard and Fox on the other hand would have been very difficult to pick out simply by eyeballing their previous efforts at the Alfred Dunhill Links, and Victor Perez was making his debut here in 2019. Matt Fitzpatrick’s record prior to winning was solid if unspectacular, as was last year’s winner Robert MacIntyre:
In years where conditions have been tougher, it’s been players who’ve featured towards the top of the GIR stats on the week who’ve tended to prevail. This is links golf though so a strong short game is also of value and contenders will need to bring all aspects of their game this week if they’re going to compile a competitive total.
Alex Noren 3pts EW 18/1 (8EW, 1/5) with BetFred
Last week’s win for joint-favourite Matt Fitzpatrick demonstrated that whilst the odds at the top of the market in France were pretty miserly, the bookies nevertheless got it right and there’s a similar dilemma for punters here in Scotland.
Fitzpatrick and Tommy Fleetwood share favouritism again this week, with the latter back after withdrawing at the halfway point in Paris due to illness. Whether Fitzpatrick can raise his game again so quickly remains to be seen, as does whether Fleetwood is back to 100% health, however either men could win this of course given their respective records here and obvious class.
Having seriously pondered whether Bob MacIntyre could successfully defend his title after recording progressive finishes of 14th and 10th in Ireland and Wentworth over his past two starts, my preference is to back Alex Noren who might just be looking at the wins of Shane Lowry and Matt Fitzpatrick since Ryder Cup qualification has begun and would want to get in on the act too.
The Swede had to make do with vice-captain duties at Bethpage last year, however if he’s going to add to his to date only playing appearance in golf’s biennial spectacular then getting a win on the board quickly to set some qualification foundations has got to be the best approach.
15th when defending his BMW PGA Championship title just over a week ago was a decent enough effort without rewarding each-way backers, however 7th at the Wyndham Championship and 3rd at the St Jude Championship prior to that suggests that he’s playing some great golf. 10 of his 12 wins at DP World Tour level have come between June and October, suggesting that the Swede really gets into his stride as the summer progresses and comes to an end, an assertion backed up again with his two wins on British soil last year at the British Masters and at Wentworth.
Despite the vagaries of this event, the 44 year-old has missed the Dunhill Links cut just once from a dozen starts, with 3rd in 2012 and 2nd in 2022 his best finishes. Two top 10s at The Open over the years adds further justification and I can see Alex seriously contending for the win here this week. RESULT: T23
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Jacob Skov Olesen 1.5ps EW 35/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Star Sports
I may be in danger of following Jacob Skov Olesen over the proverbial cliff on links tests, however I can find no justification in dropping him this week having clung on to an each-way place for this column at the Irish Open earlier this month.
A tie for 7th at Doonbeg doesn’t tell the whole story though as the Dane was 12-under through his first 45 holes and pulling away from the field with eventual winner Shane Lowry before the Irishman simply left Olesen and the rest of the field for dust. A closing round of 73 meant that we were sweating on the place money by the end, however overall he once again demonstrated that links golf is where his strengths lie.
As we’ve noted before, the Copenhagen resident shared the lead after day 1 at last year’s Open Championship before finishing 3rd at Trump Aberdeen on his next start and 5th later in the year here at St Andrews, before finishing 3rd at Doha in February on another track that tends to carry strong form lines when it comes to links golf.
That effort here 12 months ago on his Dunhill Links debut came off the back of a missed cut at the Open de France on his previous outing, so a weekend off last time out at Wentworth is of little concern to me and I can see him putting in another bold performance on his favourite terrain having taken last week off. RESULT: T11
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Guido Migliozzi 1pt EW 70/1 (8EW, 1/5) with BetFred
One thing we’ve learned about Guido Migliozzi over the years is not to drop him when he’s showing some form, and having finished in a tie for 7th for us last week I’m more than happy to stick with him for another outing.
Winding back to 2024, we backed the Italian at the European Open in Germany where he limped home in 78 strokes to finish 8th, having entered the final day with a share of the lead, before he put things right in the Netherlands on his next start to capture his fourth title at DP World Tour level. That was on an exposed track, as was his previous win at Le Golf National in 2022, and whilst neither can be described as links tracks they do both share enough characteristics not to ignore them completely ahead of this week.
17th here in 2021 is the best result that the 29 year-old has mustered around these parts, although as a player who can blow hot and cold perhaps he can improve on that arriving here in progressive form of 10th and 7th over the past fortnight, and having ranked Strokes Gained positive in every category last week in Paris. RESULT: T42
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Jeff Winther 1pt EW 80/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Star Sports
One of the most popular punts of last week was Jeff Winther and for a while the Dane looked like he was going to delight much of the golf betting community, having opened up an early lead on Friday morning before Matt Fitzpatrick reeled him in later in the day. 66/64 to open put Winther in a great position though before a 7 at the par-5 14th on Friday effectively ended his chances, eventually finishing 10th.
Winther’s popularity in Paris was driven by a strong record at Le Golf National combined with his recent win on home soil on another exposed, linksy course, however with punters giving him a wider berth this week the doubling in price from around 40/1 to 80/1 has more than peaked my interest.
Whether the increase in price is justifiable is debatable given he has best finishes of 14th (2021) and 10th (2023) here at the Dunhill Links, plus a little bit of breeze in the forecast will only help a player who cut his teeth playing golf near the Danish coast.
Having understandably missed the cut at The Belfry on his first start since his win at the Danish Golf Championship, the 38 year-old has shown progressive form of 23/15/10 and any improvement on that this week could see a healthy return for this bet. RESULT: MC
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Scott Jamieson 1pt EW 170/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
Finally, it would be remiss of me not to include a local in my team this week, and in Scott Jamieson we have a player who returns to home soil having won the Nexo Championship just over a month ago when we last visited Scotland.
The 42 year-old’s victory at Trump Aberdeen was his first on Tour for 14 years and his first success over a full 72-hole tournament with the Nelson Mandela Championship having been reduced to just 36 holes due to severe weather. With the record set straight now, whether the Glaswegian can build on that remains to be seen, however with a breezy links ahead of us this week I feel that he’s worth taking a punt on just in case.
Jamieson arrived here 12 months off the back of four straight missed cuts before finishing in a tie for 5th at a huge price, and although his form dropped off after that win up the coast from here in August, opening rounds of 67/69 last week at Le Golf National put him inside the top 20 at the halfway point. RESULT: T35
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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 15:25BST 28.9.26 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.
Paul Williams is co-founder and part of our editorial team at Golf Betting System and he focuses mainly on the DP World Tour. Paul has been involved in the gambling industry for over 15 years and has a passion for golf as well as football and horse racing, where he has developed a deep understanding of both online and offline betting gathered through practical experience. Paul also contributes weekly to the popular Golf Betting System podcast.
You can find out more about Paul’s involvement with Golf Betting System here.