Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Alfred Dunhill Links Tips 2021

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After the trials and tribulations of last week’s Ryder Cup, we’re back in action on the European Tour this week as we head to Scotland for the high-profile Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.

Although the introduction of the Rolex Series may have relegated this event a little in terms of stature, it’s still more than a decent title to win with a $5m prize fund up for grabs, plus the event is equally about the celebrity amateurs who play alongside their golfing heroes at and around the Home of Golf for 4 days.

Despite the late withdrawal of Tony Finau from this week’s field, we still have 4 players from the OWGR top 50 in attendance – namely Billy Horschel, Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry – as well as an impressive undercard featuring the likes of defending champion (from 2019) Victor Perez, Robert MacIntyre, Branden Grace and Alex Noren amongst others.

The event is played over 3 courses for the first 3 days – Kingsbarns, Carnoustie and St Andrews – then the final round is contested around the Old Course with slightly trickier pin positions after 3 days of pretty generous placements to help the amateurs.

Temperament is an important factor in this quirky event where rounds can take over 6 hours to complete, with some of the amateurs barely able to claim ‘hacker’ status. Long waits of half an hour or longer are common on some tees as play grinds to a halt, so those with the personality to enjoy the occasion whilst retaining focus when it’s eventually their time to play a shot are at an advantage.

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Course Overview. The Old Course at St Andrews needs little introduction as the ‘Home of Golf’ is steeped in golfing tradition dating back to the very roots of the sport some 600 years ago. The 17th Road Hole, with its notorious bunker, and the closing 18th, which features the Swilcan Bridge and the Valley of Sin, are the most famous closing holes on the planet and this rolling links is recognisable worldwide to those with just the most basic of golfing knowledge.

The 7,318 yard, par 72 has a peculiar setup of 14 par-4s and just a pair each of par-3s & par-5s and features 7 double greens with huge, fescue/bentgrass putting surfaces. The other two tracks used for a day each in this event are Carnoustie and Kingsbarns with Carnoustie tending to play the toughest of all 3 courses, however much depends on the strength of the breeze as we saw first hand at the 2010 Open Championship when a windy Friday decimated many scorecards at St Andrews – including that of Rory McIlroy who shot 80 that day to ultimately scupper his chances of what would have been his first Claret jug.

alfred dunhill links tips

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Alfred Dunhill Links Championship that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2019: Victor Perez, 175/1; 2018: Lucas Bjerregaard, 50/1; 2017: Tyrrell Hatton, 22/1; 2016: Tyrrell Hatton, 66/1; 2015: Thorbjorn Olesen, 200/1; 2014: Oliver Wilson, 500/1; 2013: David Howell, 125/1; 2012: Branden Grace, 50/1; 2011: Michael Hoey, 250/1; 2010: Martin Kaymer, 16/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for St Andrews is here.

After a pleasant week of weather for the UK, our trip to Scotland will be greeted with far more autumnal conditions with rain expected at times during the 4 days, temperatures struggling to reach the mid-50s Fahrenheit after chilly starts, and winds of between 15-20mph at times and strongest on Friday and Saturday.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors.

Analysing the final stats of the last 10 winners of this event gives us a little more insight into the type of player suited to this test:

  • 2019, Victor Perez (-22). 70.6% fairways (21st), 90.3% greens in regulation (3rd), 42.9% scrambling (38th), 1.68 putts per GIR (12th).
  • 2018, Lucas Bjerregaard (-15). 64.1% fairways (19th), 83.3% greens in regulation (3rd), 41.7% scrambling (32nd), 1.68 putts per GIR (1st).
  • 2017, Tyrrell Hatton (-24). 60.4% fairways (39th), 85.2% greens in regulation (1st), 100% scrambling (1st), 1.72 putts per GIR (13th).
  • 2016, Tyrrell Hatton (-23). 72.9% fairways (27th), 83.3% greens in regulation (10th), 77.8% scrambling (11th), 1.73 putts per GIR (20th).
  • 2015, Thorbjorn Olesen (-18). 57.0% fairways (130th), 86.1% greens in regulation (7th), 50% scrambling (87th), 1.69 putts per GIR (14th)
  • 2014, Oliver Wilson (-17). 62.8% fairways (89th), 75.9% greens in regulation (64th), 88.5% scrambling (1st), 1.85 putts per GIR (89th)
  • 2013, David Howell (-23). 69.9% fairways (93rd), 88.9% greens in regulation (10th), 75.0% scrambling (32nd), 1.67 putts per GIR (8th)
  • 2012, Branden Grace (-22). 62.8% fairways (112th), 84.7% greens in regulation (10th), 63.6% scrambling (46th), 1.67 putts per GIR (6th)
  • 2011, Michael Hoey (-22). 59.4% fairways (120th), 81.9% greens in regulation (29th), 81.8% scrambling (7th), 1.66 putts per GIR (7th)
  • 2010, Martin Kaymer (-17). 73.5% fairways (40th), 81.9% greens in regulation (5th), 69.2% scrambling (10th), 1.78 putts per GIR (26th)

With the exception of Carnoustie, fairways are wide and greens large and easy to hit, so much of this event comes down to how players perform on and around the greens. Converting birdie chances is critical if players are going to compile a contending score and minimising bogeys from off of the green is also vital in an event where somewhere around 20-under is typically the target to be in with a sniff on Sunday afternoon in average conditions.

As well as the event’s nuances that are more obvious in that a slow, pro-am event on 3 different links tracks isn’t likely to suit everyone, there are also some other important points to consider:

  • With the exception of Victor Perez in 2019, Tyrrell Hatton in 2016, Oliver Wilson in 2014 and Stephen Gallacher in 2004, every other winner of this event since 2001 already had a career victory on the European Tour.
  • GB & Ireland players have won 12 of those 19 Alfred Dunhill Links Championships, Karlsson (08), Kaymer (10), Grace (12), Olesen (15),Bjerregaard (18) and Perez (19) being the exceptions.
  • 8 of the last 12 winners here had a win in the current or previous season to their name; 3 of those 12 were arriving here having won their previous event.
  • 7 of the last 12 winners here had recorded at least a top-10 in this event in their career prior to winning.

Incoming Form. In terms of incoming form, the winners here since 2010 have been very mixed as is reflected by odds ranging from 16/1 to 500/1 and half of the winners in that period have been 125/1 or longer pre-event.

Martin Kaymer (16/1) in 2010 completed a personal hat-trick of wins here having captured the US PGA Championship and KLM Open in his two previous events. Michael Hoey (250/1) hadn’t finished inside the top 30 in his previous 10 starts, David Howell (125/1) had recorded a solitary top-10 in the previous 6 months,  Oliver Wilson (500/1) had failed to make the top-30 in his previous 15 events, most of which were on the Challenge Tour, and Thorbjorn Olesen (200/1) had missed 10 of his previous 14 cuts after his return from a wrist injury.

Despite some good early-season form, Tyrrell Hatton arrived here in 2016 with incoming efforts of MC/MC/45, however his successful defence came off the back of consecutive top-8 finishes. 2012 winner Branden Grace (50/1) had shown poor recent form on the European Tour before winning here, although he did arrive fresh off the back of a low-key victory the previous week on the Sunshine Tour.

Lucas Bjerregaard had shown some of the most consistent form of recent victors here with 4 consecutive top-20 finishes before winning in 2018, included in which was a play-off defeat at Crans on his penultimate start, and Victor Perez had finished 10th in Sweden 3 starts before winning in 2019. A very mixed bag indeed:

  • 2019, Victor Perez: 61/MC/MC/15/MC/MC/26/61/28/10/MC/MC
  • 2018, Lucas Bjerregaard: 3/71/5/61/MC/MC/39/WD/9/6/2/20
  • 2017, Tyrrell Hatton: 29/41/30/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/36/MC/3/8
  • 2016, Tyrrell Hatton: 5/7/20/MC/33/2/5/10/17/MC/MC/45
  • 2015, Thorbjorn Olesen: MC/MC/29/MC/MC/MC/33/MC/5/MC/67/MC
  • 2014, Oliver Wilson: MC/33/MC/MC/MC/33/44/55/MC/MC/MC/47
  • 2013, David Howell: DQ/MC/65/MC/71/8/42/17/MC/26/41/53
  • 2012, Branden Grace: 17/5/25/51/MC/17/68/77/36/MC/76/1
  • 2011, Michael Hoey: 70/1/31/54/66/MC/MC/34/MC/52/48/MC
  • 2010, Martin Kaymer: 34/MC/28/12/8/21/6/MC/7/22/1/1

Event Form. Going back to 2010, half of the winners had fairly tangible form here – in fact Kaymer, Wilson and Olesen had all finished runner-up in this event previously in their respective careers and Hatton was defending champion in 2017.

David Howell had 4 top-8 finishes from 12 starts here prior to winning and clearly also enjoys the format. Hoey, Grace, Hatton (in 2016) and Bjerregaard on the other hand would have been very difficult to pick out simply by eyeballing their previous efforts at the Alfred Dunhill Links, and Victor Perez was making his debut here the last time we played:

  • 2019, Victor Perez: Debut
  • 2018, Lucas Bjerregaard: 32/MC/MC/MC
  • 2017, Tyrrell Hatton: MC/MC/1
  • 2016, Tyrrell Hatton: MC/MC
  • 2015, Thorbjorn Olesen: 45/2/MC/58
  • 2014, Oliver Wilson: MC/32/MC/40/2/MC/21/34/59
  • 2013, David Howell: 3/58/6/5/37/MC/MC/60/MC/8/MC/34
  • 2012, Branden Grace: MC
  • 2011, Michael Hoey: MC/19/MC
  • 2010, Martin Kaymer: 15/2

In years where conditions have been tougher, it’s been players who’ve featured towards the top of the GIR stats on the week who’ve tended to prevail, and with conditions looking less favourable this week I’ll use that as my starting point for this week’s team. This is links golf though so a strong short game is also of value and contenders will need to bring all aspects of their game this week if they’re going to compile a competitive total.

My selections are as follows:

Matthew Jordan 1pt EW 70/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Betfred

A relatively star-studded European Tour event creates an interesting betting market this week and a bit of a dilemma as to how to play this most fickle of tournaments.

Shane Lowry heads the betting at 12/1 with fellow Whistling Straits team-mates Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrrell Hatton just behind him at 14/1 and 16/1 respectively. Shane and Tommy have come close here in the past with 7 top-6 finishes in this event between them, whereas Tyrrell has won here twice. With all three though we need to consider the emotional side of last week’s defeat to a rampant Team USA and whether 4 days of painfully slow golf in cold, wet and breezy conditions is really going to be what any of the trio want or need right now.

Wedged in between them in the betting is Wentworth winner Billy Horschel who proved at the BMW PGA Championship that PGA Tour class can readily stand out at European Tour level. This is Billy’s first attempt at the Dunhill Links though and if his Pebble Beach Pro-Am form of MC/MC/MC/28/45/MC is anything remotely to go by then perhaps he’s better observed than backed this week.

Alex Noren holds a little appeal at 16/1, however having backed him last time out at the BMW PGA Championship and having seen very little to suggest he was an imminent winner, I’ll start my team far deeper in this week’s market with Matthew Jordan.

Until 2014, Stephen Gallacher’s win in 2004 was the only success by a Tour maiden here at the Dunhill Links, however with Oliver Wilson (2014), Tyrrell Hatton (2016) and Victor Perez last time we played in 2019, the tide has turned somewhat and that encourages me to back a talented sort like Jordan.

Amateur wins at the 2017 St Andrews Links Trophy and at the Lytham Trophy the following year by a massive 9 strokes already marked the 25 year-old out as a potential links star of the future, and he went some way to backing up that assertion here in 2019 when stepping up from Challenge Tour level to lead this event at the halfway point, before eventually finishing 5th for what is still his highest OWGR-reaping finish on the European Tour. That effort backed up a 32nd place finish on debut the year before where he’d opened with a 77 on just his 3rd professional start before recovering for a creditable finish.

With his European Tour card secured for 2020 courtesy largely from his win at the Italian Challenge Open, the Wirral man impressed on his rookie season, finishing 3rd at the Wales Open and 9th at the Cyprus Showdown in a year where he made 16 of 19 cuts.

After a slow start to 2021, Jordan’s long game has shown strong progression in recent months with his SG Approach and SG Tee to Green figures continuing to impress. Finishes of 17th at the BMW International Open, 12th at the Irish Open and 18th at the Scottish Open were positive improvements over his early season form, however 6th on Scottish soil at nearby Fairmont St Andrews and 4th at Crans-sur-Sierre more recently suggests that he’s not done improving yet and a win could be just around the corner. RESULT: MC

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Martin Kaymer 1pt EW 60/1 (5EW, 1/4) with bet365

Playing one of the vice-captain’s roles last week at Whistling Straits kept Martin Kaymer involved in Team Europe’s campaign having missed out on the past 2 teams, however at the age of 36 the German should be far from finished in that respect.

Prior to that, 4 consecutive Ryder Cup teams made – and of course his gutsy putt on the 18th at Medinah – as well as 2 Major titles and a stint as world number 1 tells us all we ever needed to know about his ability. However in truth it’s the wins, or lack thereof, that have been his issue since he won the 2014 US Open title.

Martin’s downfall can ultimately be traced back to his failure to convert a 10-shot lead at the 2015 Abu Dhabi Championship, a turn of events that’s likely to have knocked the confidence of any golfer, let alone a (former) elite one like him. Just like that, the winning habit was gone and as yet hasn’t returned, however the question is whether that will ever change and, if so, where and when.

It’s fair to say that, in the past 12 months or so, there have been very strong hints that he still has the game to compete at this level and potentially beyond. 3rd at last year’s UK Championship, 2nd the week after at the Andalucia Masters and 5th at the Italian Open were all good chances to get the increasingly heavy monkey off his back. 3rd at the Austrian Open and then a fast-finishing 2nd at the BMW International Open this year were close but not quite close enough, however you get the feeling that eventually the door will swing wide open on a Sunday and from there the proverbial floodgates may well open.

With the motivation for some Ryder Cup revenge in Italy in 2 years time coursing through his veins and a return to an event that he’s won once, and could well have won twice more at least had things gone his way, perhaps this is the week that we’ll see Martin Kaymer make a long overdue positive career move. 18th at Crans and 25th at Wentworth were reasonable efforts of late and his approach play has been excellent for some time now; all it needs is for a Sunday to go his way. RESULT: T45

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Min Woo Lee 1pt EW 90/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Betfred

With the late withdrawal of Tony Finau, Min Woo Lee is the 9th highest-ranked player in this week’s field yet you have to scroll a fair way down the betting to find the talented 23 year-old.

The younger brother of LPGA star Minjee Lee is already twice a winner at European Tour level, having won the Vic Open on home soil last February before adding the Scottish Open title to his CV in July on two tracks with more than a passing resemblance to links golf, albeit if a little fabricated for the purists.

It makes sense that Min Woo should relish coastal, exposed and/or breezy conditions given his Perth upbringing which has made him master the low stinger, an effective weapon in those types of conditions. Friday and Saturday look the breeziest days to employ that tactic this week, which could be pivotal to getting him into a contending position for Sunday’s final round.

A second consecutive weekend off at Wentworth doesn’t overly concern me as this type of assignment is far more his style; 12th prior to that on a far more generous Italian Open layout where he led at the halfway point is a far better indicator of his chance here this week in my view.

Rounds of 70/68/71 here on debut in 2019 meant he missed out on playing the final round, however he’s far more experienced and frankly a better player nowadays for that missed cut to be a serious consideration given the price on offer. RESULT: 58th

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Joakim Lagergren 1pt EW 125/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Betfred

I backed Joakim Lagergren here in 2019 at 125/1 and he rewarded us with a full each-way payout for his tie for 3rd and I’m happy to go back to the well again this week.

Having got to within a play-off of capturing his maiden European Tour title in 2017 when losing out to Jeunghun Wang in a 3-man playoff in Qatar, the 27 year-old converted at the second time of asking when beating Mike Lorenzo-Vera in extra time in Sicily the following year. Both tracks hold some relevance to this week’s task, with Qatar often setting up in linksy fashion and the Verdura Golf Club in Sicily being designed by Kingsbarns creator Kyle Phillips, and with some subtle form of late I’m happy to give him a chance here this week given the price on offer.

4th place finishes here both on debut in 2015 as well as when returning the year after bode well for his chances whenever he tees it up at this event, as does 12th in 2017 where he sat in 6th position heading into the final day. 3rd the last time we played this event is further evidence that he enjoys both the format and the courses used for the Dunhill Links and despite missing his cut on his last outing in Holland, the very fact that he sat in 10th place heading into Sunday at Wentworth gives us a strong clue that he’s not playing bad golf at present.

In truth it’s been a poor year for the Swede with a best finish of 12th at the Tenerife Open, however 17th at the Czech Masters last month was much more positive and although he drifted to 27th in the and at the BMW PGA Championship, his long game performance was much improved and at 1.59 Putts per GIR his biggest asset was firing nicely. RESULT: T2

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Stephen Gallacher 1pt EW 300/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes

With 3-figure winners of this event since 2011 including the likes of David Howell (125/1), Victor Perez (175/1), Thorbjorn Olesen (200/1), Michael Hoey (250/1) and Oliver Wilson (500/1), adding a rank outside into the team doesn’t seem like a bad idea whatsoever.

Since 2001, both Padraig Harrington and Tyrrell Hatton have lifted the Dunhill Links trophy twice and although it’s now 17 years since Stephen Gallacher secured his maiden European Tour title around these parts, stranger things have happened. The Scot also has previous in terms of multiple wins having twice won the Dubai Desert Classic, and perhaps the former Ryder Cup player will be inspired after last week’s drubbing in Wisconsin to show us the kind of form that got him into the winning 2014 team.

At the age of 46, Gallacher could be excused for taking things a little easier following a successful European Tour career, however with son Jack on his bag he’s seen success at the 2019 Indian Open and perhaps he’s not finished quite yet. 16th at the Rolex Series opener in Abu Dhabi this year ranks as Stevie G’s best finish this year, however 25th last time out at Wentworth wasn’t a disaster having missed 6 of his previous 7 cuts and he returns to familiar territory this week with a little momentum at least.

The short game was working nicely in Surrey, ranking 3rd for SG Around the Green and 6th for SG Putting, and after struggling for some time with his approach play he was at least Strokes Gained positive on that count. His recent struggles from off the tee shouldn’t be anything like as accentuated this week and despite a string of missed cuts in his homeland of late, he has finished in the top 10 here as recently as 2018. RESULT: T39

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 17:55BST 27.9.21 but naturally subject to fluctuation.