Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Alfred Dunhill Links Tips 2025

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Although the Rolex Series may have relegated this week’s Alfred Dunhill Links a little in terms of stature in recent years, it’s still more than a decent title to win with a $5m prize fund up for grabs, plus the event is equally about the celebrity amateurs who play alongside their golfing heroes at and around the Home of Golf for 4 days.

The event is played over 3 courses for the first 3 days – Kingsbarns, Carnoustie and St Andrews – then the final round is contested around the Old Course with slightly trickier pin positions after 3 days of pretty generous placements to help the amateurs.

Temperament is an important factor in this quirky event where rounds can take over 6 hours to complete, with some of the amateurs barely able to claim ‘hacker’ status. Long waits of half an hour or longer are common on some tees as play grinds to a halt, so those with the personality to enjoy the occasion whilst retaining focus when it’s eventually their time to play a shot are at an advantage.

Given the 3-course rota, an extended field of 168 players are in attendance this week with four of the victorious European Ryder Cup team dominating the betting. Tommy Fleetwood heads the market at 6/1 from Tyrrell Hatton, with Matt Fitzpatrick and Bob MacIntyre both in the 10-14/1 bracket. Harry Hall continues his European adventures alongside a whole host of LIV stars who have taken a number of the 26 sponsor’s invites that were available this week.

Course Overview. The Old Course at St Andrews needs little introduction as the ‘Home of Golf’ is steeped in golfing tradition dating back to the very roots of the sport some 600 years ago. The 17th Road Hole, with its notorious bunker, and the closing 18th, which features the Swilcan Bridge and the Valley of Sin, are the most famous closing holes on the planet and this rolling links is recognisable worldwide to those with just the most basic of golfing knowledge.

The 7,318 yard, par 72 has a peculiar setup of 14 par-4s and just a pair each of par-3s & par-5s and features 7 double greens with huge, fescue/bentgrass putting surfaces. The other two tracks used for a day each in this event are Carnoustie and Kingsbarns with Carnoustie tending to play the toughest of all 3 courses, however much depends on the strength of the breeze.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Alfred Dunhill Links Championship that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2024, Tyrrell Hatton, 11/1; 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick, 12/1; 2022: Ryan Fox, 80/1; 2021: Danny Willett, 100/1; 2019: Victor Perez, 175/1; 2018: Lucas Bjerregaard, 50/1; 2017: Tyrrell Hatton, 22/1; 2016: Tyrrell Hatton, 66/1; 2015: Thorbjorn Olesen, 200/1; 2014: Oliver Wilson, 500/1; 2013: David Howell, 125/1; 2012: Branden Grace, 50/1; 2011: Michael Hoey, 250/1; 2010: Martin Kaymer, 16/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for St Andrews is here.

Our trip to Scotland will be greeted with typically autumnal conditions with a drizzly start on Thursday improving to sunshine and showers before the gloomy conditions return on Saturday. Sunday is likely to be the best day of the week with sunny spells to start with, however temperatures won’t get much beyond 60 Fahrenheit all week. There will be a consistent breeze of 15-20mph throughout with the threat of stronger winds on Saturday if a low pressure system develops.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the last 13 winners of this event gives us a little more insight into the type of player suited to this test. Given the weather issues in 2023, no statistics were captured for eventual winner Matt Fitzpatrick. Stats are from St Andrews rounds only:

  • 2024, Tyrrell Hatton (-24). 67.2% fairways (23rd), 84.7% greens in regulation (12th), 72.7% scrambling (17th), 1.64 putts per GIR (4th).
  • 2022, Ryan Fox (-15). 67.6% fairways (12th), 81.5% greens in regulation (9th), 50% scrambling (42nd), 1.61 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2021, Danny Willett (-18). 60.4% fairways (32nd), 87.5% greens in regulation (3rd), 66.7% scrambling (15th), 1.75 putts per GIR (16th).
  • 2019, Victor Perez (-22). 70.6% fairways (21st), 90.3% greens in regulation (3rd), 42.9% scrambling (38th), 1.68 putts per GIR (12th).
  • 2018, Lucas Bjerregaard (-15). 64.1% fairways (19th), 83.3% greens in regulation (3rd), 41.7% scrambling (32nd), 1.68 putts per GIR (1st).
  • 2017, Tyrrell Hatton (-24). 60.4% fairways (39th), 85.2% greens in regulation (1st), 100% scrambling (1st), 1.72 putts per GIR (13th).
  • 2016, Tyrrell Hatton (-23). 72.9% fairways (27th), 83.3% greens in regulation (10th), 77.8% scrambling (11th), 1.73 putts per GIR (20th).
  • 2015, Thorbjorn Olesen (-18). 57.0% fairways (130th), 86.1% greens in regulation (7th), 50% scrambling (87th), 1.69 putts per GIR (14th)
  • 2014, Oliver Wilson (-17). 62.8% fairways (89th), 75.9% greens in regulation (64th), 88.5% scrambling (1st), 1.85 putts per GIR (89th)
  • 2013, David Howell (-23). 69.9% fairways (93rd), 88.9% greens in regulation (10th), 75.0% scrambling (32nd), 1.67 putts per GIR (8th)
  • 2012, Branden Grace (-22). 62.8% fairways (112th), 84.7% greens in regulation (10th), 63.6% scrambling (46th), 1.67 putts per GIR (6th)
  • 2011, Michael Hoey (-22). 59.4% fairways (120th), 81.9% greens in regulation (29th), 81.8% scrambling (7th), 1.66 putts per GIR (7th)
  • 2010, Martin Kaymer (-17). 73.5% fairways (40th), 81.9% greens in regulation (5th), 69.2% scrambling (10th), 1.78 putts per GIR (26th)

With the exception of Carnoustie, fairways are wide and greens large and easy to hit, so much of this event comes down to how players perform on and around the greens.

Converting birdie chances is critical if players are going to compile a contending score and minimising bogeys from off of the green is also vital in an event where somewhere around 20-under is typically the target to be in with a sniff on Sunday afternoon in average conditions.

As well as the event’s nuances that are more obvious in that a slow, pro-am event on 3 different links tracks isn’t likely to suit everyone, there are also some other important points to consider:

  • With the exception of Victor Perez in 2019, Tyrrell Hatton in 2016, Oliver Wilson in 2014 and Stephen Gallacher in 2004, every other winner of this event since 2001 already had a career victory on the European/DP World Tour.
  • GB & Ireland players have won 15 of those 23 Alfred Dunhill Links Championships, Karlsson (08), Kaymer (10), Grace (12), Olesen (15),Bjerregaard (18), Perez (19) and Fox (22) being the exceptions.
  • 11 of the last 16 winners here had a win in the current or previous season to their name; 3 of those 16 were arriving here having won their previous event.
  • 9 of the last 16 winners here had recorded at least a top-10 in this event in their career prior to winning.

Incoming Form. In terms of incoming form, the winners here since 2010 have been very mixed as is reflected by odds ranging from 11/1 to 500/1, and around half of the winners in that period have been 100/1 or longer pre-event.

Martin Kaymer (16/1) in 2010 completed a personal hat-trick of wins here having captured the US PGA Championship and KLM Open in his two previous events. Michael Hoey (250/1) hadn’t finished inside the top 30 in his previous 10 starts, David Howell (125/1) had recorded a solitary top-10 in the previous 6 months, Oliver Wilson (500/1) had failed to make the top-30 in his previous 15 events, most of which were on the Challenge Tour, and Thorbjorn Olesen (200/1) had missed 10 of his previous 14 cuts after his return from a wrist injury.

Despite some good early-season form, Tyrrell Hatton arrived here in 2016 with incoming efforts of MC/MC/45, however his successful defence came off the back of consecutive top-8 finishes. 2012 winner Branden Grace (50/1) had shown poor recent form on the European Tour before winning here, although he did arrive fresh off the back of a low-key victory the previous week on the Sunshine Tour.

Lucas Bjerregaard had shown some of the most consistent form of recent victors here with 4 consecutive top-20 finishes before winning in 2018, included in which was a play-off defeat at Crans on his penultimate start, whereas Victor Perez had finished 10th in Sweden 3 starts before winning in 2019.

After the 2020 break for Covid, Danny Willett won here at 100/1 off of very patchy looking form. 33rd at the Open Championship was solid, however 3 missed cuts and a tailed-off 71st at Wentworth hardly inspired punters. In a similar vein, 2022 winner Ryan Fox had seemingly gone off the boil after some sparkling early season form, however he turned it around here in fine style.

2023 winner Matt Fitzpatrick was a well-fancied 12/1 shot having finished 2nd at the PGA Tour’s BMW Championship and 3rd at Crans-sur-Sierre before finishing a solid 18th at Wentworth prior to forming part of the winning Ryder Cup team.

To complete the picture, 11/1 third favourite Tyrrell Hatton returned to the DP World Tour following a successful first season on LIV to finish 18th at The Belfry then 10th the Spanish Open before winning here 12 months ago. A very mixed bag indeed:

  • 2024, Tyrrell Hatton: 5/63/18/26/1/3/MC/2/25/18/4/10
  • 2023, Matt Fitzpatrick: MC/9/20/17/49/MC/41/66/2/13/3/18
  • 2022, Ryan Fox: 2/54/2/MC/3/2/47/MC/22/MC/WD/MC
  • 2021, Danny Willett: 18/MC/11/64/26/67/MC/33/MC/MC/71/MC
  • 2019, Victor Perez: 61/MC/MC/15/MC/MC/26/61/28/10/MC/MC
  • 2018, Lucas Bjerregaard: 3/71/5/61/MC/MC/39/WD/9/6/2/20
  • 2017, Tyrrell Hatton: 29/41/30/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/36/MC/3/8
  • 2016, Tyrrell Hatton: 5/7/20/MC/33/2/5/10/17/MC/MC/45
  • 2015, Thorbjorn Olesen: MC/MC/29/MC/MC/MC/33/MC/5/MC/67/MC
  • 2014, Oliver Wilson: MC/33/MC/MC/MC/33/44/55/MC/MC/MC/47
  • 2013, David Howell: DQ/MC/65/MC/71/8/42/17/MC/26/41/53
  • 2012, Branden Grace: 17/5/25/51/MC/17/68/77/36/MC/76/1
  • 2011, Michael Hoey: 70/1/31/54/66/MC/MC/34/MC/52/48/MC
  • 2010, Martin Kaymer: 34/MC/28/12/8/21/6/MC/7/22/1/1

Event Form. Going back to 2010, around half of the winners had fairly tangible form here – in fact Kaymer, Wilson, Olesen and Willett had all finished runner-up in this event previously in their respective careers and Hatton was defending champion in 2017 before winning again last year.

David Howell had 4 top-8 finishes from 12 starts here prior to winning and clearly also enjoys the format. Hoey, Grace, Hatton (in 2016), Bjerregaard and Fox on the other hand would have been very difficult to pick out simply by eyeballing their previous efforts at the Alfred Dunhill Links, and Victor Perez was making his debut here in 2019. Matt Fitzpatrick’s record prior to winning was solid if unspectacular:

  • 2024, Tyrrell Hatton: MC/MC/1/1/2/15/2/7
  • 2023, Matt Fitzpatrick: MC/MC/15/MC/26/22
  • 2022, Ryan Fox: MC/MC/24/54/54
  • 2021, Danny Willett: 42/2/27/5/MC/MC/52/MC/26
  • 2019, Victor Perez: Debut
  • 2018, Lucas Bjerregaard: 32/MC/MC/MC
  • 2017, Tyrrell Hatton: MC/MC/1
  • 2016, Tyrrell Hatton: MC/MC
  • 2015, Thorbjorn Olesen: 45/2/MC/58
  • 2014, Oliver Wilson: MC/32/MC/40/2/MC/21/34/59
  • 2013, David Howell: 3/58/6/5/37/MC/MC/60/MC/8/MC/34
  • 2012, Branden Grace: MC
  • 2011, Michael Hoey: MC/19/MC
  • 2010, Martin Kaymer: 15/2

In years where conditions have been tougher, it’s been players who’ve featured towards the top of the GIR stats on the week who’ve tended to prevail. This is links golf though so a strong short game is also of value and contenders will need to bring all aspects of their game this week if they’re going to compile a competitive total.

My Final Alfred Dunhill Links Tips For 2025 Are As Follows:

Brooks Koepka 3pts EW 25/1 (6EW, 1/5) with SpreadEx

Four of Team Europe’s heroes fly straight in from New York to compete this week, hangovers and all, with the quartet understandably taking up the first four spots in the betting market. Favourite Tommy Fleetwood was magnificent for two days before coming unstuck – as did most of the team – in the singles, and 3-time Dunhill Links winner and defending champion Tyrrell Hatton was delighted to have gathered the final half-point that saw Luke Donald’s team over the line.

Matt Fitzpatrick impressed too before running into a Bryson juggernaut on Sunday, and Robert MacIntyre put the icing on the cake with a late half point on the final hole. Fitz has previous coming into this – he won the 2023 Dunhill Links after forming part of the victorious team in Rome – but I do wonder how Sunday’s rollercoaster, and subsequent celebrations, will have affected them all.

Can one of them win? Absolutely. Perhaps a more pertinent question though would be to ask who might take some inspiration and motivation from not being involved last week, and that leads me squarely to Brooks Koepka. Brooks winning the week after his (ex) team-mates losing the Ryder Cup would be something of a statement, albeit meaning nothing in terms of 2027 qualification of course.

The five-time Major Champion was part of the previous four Ryder Cups before Bethpage Black, winning twice, but was never in contention for a captain’s pick for this year given a poor year where by his own estimation his putter has been stone cold, preventing him from even being a consideration for a spot.

A change in setup seems to be working now though with his 4th place finish last time out in France showing some real promise, despite relinquishing a huge opportunity to win on the back nine on Sunday. “I’ve felt very uncomfortable over the putts pretty much all year. Just been a little bit of hand position. We’ve got it sorted now where I feel like I’m striking the putts very well, hitting them on line and feeling confident,” he said heading into the final round in Paris where he ultimately ranked 7th for SG Putting for the tournament.

Historically there’s been a narrative around Brooks that he only bothers at the Majors, and whilst I can respect that argument I suspect that if there’s one place he’d dearly love to win it would be at St Andrews. The 35 year-old has often stated that the Home of Golf is his favourite course on the planet and Scotland is where he won his final Challenge Tour event before graduation to the European Tour, as it was at the time. 9th, 7th, 2nd and 10th here at the Dunhill Links on his last four attempts tells me that this is one event where he can be bothered and I’ll back him accordingly.

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Daniel Brown 1.5pts EW 60/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

A top-heavy field means some attractive each-way options a little further down the betting and none more so for me than Daniel Brown who simply loves links golf.

We were on board the 30 year-old when he secured his maiden DP World Tour title in 2023, that win coming across the Irish Sea at host course Galgorm Castle with one of the rounds played on a true links test at Castlerock GC on the Northern Irish coast.

The SDC Championship last year produced another strong performance with Dan finishing 4th overall – played at St Francis Links the course is a modern links, but one which demands a similar skillset regardless.

And then we have last year’s Open Championship, where the Northallerton man was one of the stories of the event. An opening round of 65 at Royal Troon was the stuff of dreams on his Major Championship debut as he wrestled the first round lead from our 50/1 FRL punt Shane Lowry from a late tee time. To his credit he stuck around all week, heading into Sunday in second place before eventually feeling the heat over the final 18 holes and finishing 10th in the end.

This year’s seen a different side to Dan, with a play-off defeat on a coastal Bahrain track ultimately being bettered when he won the BMW International Open in early July. More parkland course form has followed with top-12 finishes at The Belfry, K-Club and in France last time out, however that only encourages me further as he heads to the type of terrain that I think suits him even better.

An underwhelming Dunhill Links record may be there reason we’re getting a backable each-way price this week, however 10th after day 1 in the weather-affected 2023 renewal and 22nd heading into Sunday last year isn’t disastrous, so given how well he’s playing right now I’m happy to take the plunge.

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Marcus Armitage 1pt EW 125/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

One of the stats that I teased out in the preamble was that a previous contending performance around these parts is no bad thing – indeed Kaymer, Wilson, Olesen and Willett had all finished runner-up in this event previously in their respective careers, and of course defending champion Tyrrell Hatton has now won this title three times. The fact that Marcus Armitage was runner-up to Matt Fitzpatrick in 2023 then, even though it was a severely weather-affected event, has to be taken as a positive.

As an Englishman who’s also a winner on Tour that’s another couple of boxes ticked from my analysis, and the 38 year-old arrives here having finished 12th in Ireland and 5th in Paris from his three starts in September, with a missed cut at Wentworth having sat 8th after day completing his recent outings.

Certainly not one of the most consistent players – he missed four cuts on the trot prior to his effort at the K-Club – there’s been something percolating this season for The Bullet as he’s been first round leader on four occasions and was in the mix throughout in Ras al Khaimah back in January, eventually finishing runner-up to an impressive Alejandro del Rey.

4th for Strokes Gained Putting last time out in France was a really eye-catching stat for a player who’re more about approach play excellence, and if he can get the birdies flowing here this week then he could be dangerous at a great price.

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Guido Migliozzi 1pt EW 160/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

One thing we learned with Guido Migliozzi to great effect from his KLM Open win last year is not to drop him when he’s showing some form, and having finished 5th last time out for us in Paris I’m more than happy to stick with him for another outing.

We’d backed the Italian in Germany last June where he limped home in 78 strokes to finish 8th, having entered the final day with a share of the lead, before he put things right in the Netherlands on his next start to capture his fourth title at DP World Tour level. That was on an exposed track, as was his previous win at Le Golf National in 2022, and whilst neither can be described as links tracks they do both share enough characteristics not to ignore them completely ahead of this week.

17th here in 2021 is the best result that the 28 year-old has mustered around these parts, although as a player who can blow hot and cold perhaps he can improve on that arriving here in progressive form of 68/24/5 and having ranked Strokes Gained positive in every category last time out, including most noticeably with the putter where he was a full two strokes better per round than at Wentworth the week before.

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Jens Dantorp 0.5pt EW 500/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Finally, I’ll take small and very speculative punt on Jens Dantorp.

The Swede is yet to make his breakthrough on the DP World Tour, however he’s no stranger to winning titles having secured three trophies on the Challenge Tour ,as well as a further eight on the Alps Tour, and perhaps the 36 year-old will find a way to break through at this level before his career’s done.

If he is to find a way over the line at DP World Tour leve then perhaps Scotland is the most likely of locations. 3rd at Gullane at the 2018 Scottish Open was an impressive performance in decent company, as was 5th at Fairmont St Andrews in 2022 where he sat 2nd heading into the final day. 25th here last year was Dantorp’s best effort around these parts, having sat in 5th place heading into the weekend rounds.

4th to halfway and 14th overall last time out in Paris arrested a run of three straight missed cuts and saw him record his highest GIR percentage of the season at 79.2% which bodes well heading into this week’s task.

Maybe expecting Jens to win this is a little fanciful, however even an each-way place would be a great result given the price on offer.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 14:25BST 29.9.25 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.