Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Amgen Irish Open Tips 2026

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After what turned out to be another dramatic victory for Thriston Lawrence last week in Switzerland, we move on to Trump International Golf Links at Doonbeg for the Amgen Irish Open with the tournament retaining its position in the schedule ahead of next week’s flagship event at Wentworth.

World number 2 Rory McIlroy is the clear favourite for this week at around the 6/1 mark, with Jon Rahm his nearest challenger at 9/1. Robert MacIntyre, Joaquin Niemann, Tyrrell Hatton and Shane Lowry follow in what is undoubtedly a strong renewal.

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Course Overview.

The Irish Open tends to move around a bit in terms of venue and this year Trump International Golf Links at Doonbeg, County Clare, will host the Irish Open for the first time, well worth bearing this in mind when reviewing the event history stats this week.

Doonbeg was originally designed by Greg Norman, with construction beginning in 1999 before the course opened for play in 2002. Following the Trump Organisation’s acquisition of the resort in 2014, Martin Hawtree was commissioned to undertake an extensive redesign of the course which occupies around 1.5 miles of coastline, with the routing working its way through imposing natural dunes and views of the Atlantic available from 16 of its 18 holes.

According to the DP World Tour website, Doonbeg will play to a par of 70 measuring 6,838 yards for the Irish Open, significantly different from its regular 7,026-yard, par-72 configuration used for the members. The usual par-5 1st and 13th holes have been converted into demanding par 4s measuring 498 and 492 yards respectively, leaving an unusual tournament layout consisting of five par 3s, ten par 4s and just three par 5s. Fairways, tees and greens feature a mixture of Fescue, Bentgrass and Ryegrass, with Fescue and Meadow grass forming the rough and Marram grass covering the surrounding dunes.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key statistics for this week’s event that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well in this event, although as previously noted this week’s venue is hosting for the first time: Current Form | Event Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Our brand new predictor model is also available for this week’s Irish Open where you can build your own rankings in live time using the variables listed on the left hand side.

Event Winners. 2025: Rory McIlroy, 4/1; 2024: Rasmus Hojgaard, 22/1; 2023: Vincent Norrman, 50/1; 2022: Adrian Meronk, 22/1; 2021: Lucas Herbert, 33/1; 2020: John Catlin, 40/1; 2019: John Rahm, 8/1; 2018: Russell Knox, 28/1; 2017: Jon Rahm, 14/1; 2016: Rory McIlroy, 4/1; 2015: Soren Kjeldsen, 150/1; 2014: Mikko Ilonen, 80/1; 2013: Paul Casey, 50/1; 2012: Jamie Donaldson, 66/1; 2011: Simon Dyson, 25/1; 2010: Ross Fisher, 20/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

Sunshine and showers is the overall summary for the four days of tournament play, with temperatures reaching around 17 Centigrade/63 Fahrenheit in the afternoons. The breeze will be moderate at times at around 15mph, however that’s nothing excessive for a course built for more significant wind.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Looking at the last few Irish Opens gives us some idea of that kind of skill-sets that this week’s test may demand:

  • 2025: Rory McIlroy. 310 yards (2nd), 64.3% fairways (20th), 76.4% greens in regulation (7th), 70.6% scrambling (10th), 1.70 putts per GIR (9th).
  • 2024: Rasmus Hojgaard. 313 yards (3rd), 35.7% fairways (67th), 66.7% greens in regulation (9th), 62.5% scrambling (11th), 1.73 putts per GIR (9th).
  • 2023: Vincent Norrman. 308 yards (14th), 57.1% fairways (50th), 75.0% greens in regulation (14th), 72.2% scrambling (9th), 1.71 putts per GIR (36th).
  • 2022: Adrian Meronk. 288 yards (39th), 44.6% fairways (70th), 82.0% greens in regulation (1st), 61.5% scrambling (50th), 1.65 putts per GIR (10th).
  • 2021: Lucas Herbert. 313 yards (5th), 53.6% fairways (35th), 68.1% greens in regulation (34th), 73.9% scrambling (15th), 1.60 putts per GIR (5th).
  • 2020: John Catlin. 279 yards (55th), 62.5% fairways (6th), 72.2% greens in regulation (6th), 80% scrambling (2nd), 1.78 putts per GIR (26th).
  • 2019: Jon Rahm. 309 yards (4th), 60.7% fairways (3rd), 73.6% greens in regulation (17th), 52.6% scrambling (50th), 1.65 putts per GIR (8th).
  • 2018: Russell Knox. 305 yards (18th), 53.3% fairways (19th), 77.8% greens in regulation (1st), 62.5% scrambling (18th), 1.73 putts per GIR (15th).
  • 2017: Jon Rahm. 302 yards (8th), 51.8% fairways (36th), 81.9% greens in regulation (4th), 46.2% scrambling (56th), 1.61 putts per GIR (3rd).
  • 2016: Rory McIlroy. 293 yards (9th), 60.7% fairways (23rd), 83.3% greens in regulation (1st), 58.3% scrambling (21st), 1.87 putts per GIR (52nd).
  • 2015: Soren Kjeldsen. 280 yards (28th), 67.9% fairways (5th), 62.5% greens in regulation (18th), 66.7% scrambling (5th), 1.82 putts per GIR (19th).
  • 2014: Mikko Ilonen. 291 yards (31st), 51.9% fairways (31st), 73.6% greens in regulation (27th), 78.9% scrambling (1st), 1.66 putts per GIR (6th).
  • 2013: Paul Casey. 287 yards (18th), 44.6% fairways (41st), 73.6% greens in regulation (10th), 68.4% scrambling (10th), 1.68 putts per GIR (4th).
  • 2012: Jamie Donaldson. 289 yards (8th), 58.9% fairways (35th), 62.5% greens in regulation (64th), 63.0% scrambling (5th), 1.51 putts per GIR (1st).

A variety of different courses used may explain the disparity between stats in the results above and, depending on the course and conditions being played on any given year, either high GIR or a strong short game has been the winning formula in general.

Incoming Form: There are positives to pick out of the recent form of our past 14 Irish Open champions and none arrived in what you’d class as poor form.

All 14 had recorded a top-20 finish in their previous 7 outings, with nine of our last ten winners each having finished in the top four in one of their previous five starts.

A similar trend continues with Dyson (2011) and Fisher (2010), broken eventually by the shock win from Shane Lowry as an amateur back in 2009:

  • 2025, Rory McIlroy: 1/7/47/MC/19/6/2/7/12/23
  • 2024, Rasmus Hojgaard: MC/20/4/21/60/53/3/17
  • 2023, Vincent Norrman: MC/MC/24/1/25/50/58/49
  • 2022, Adrian Meronk: 61/28/3/3/MC/6/3/MC
  • 2021, Lucas Herbert: MC/70/46/MC/MC/71/18/19
  • 2020, John Catlin: 8/43/51/6/MC/25/1/8
  • 2019, Jon Rahm: 12/6/24/9/MC/MC/3/2
  • 2018, Russell Knox: MC/MC/16/20/44/12/38/2
  • 2017, Jon Rahm: 10/27/4/72/2/MC/MC/10
  • 2016, Rory McIlroy: 20/MC/3/27/4/10/4/12
  • 2015, Soren Kjeldsen: MC/45/MC/14/MC/31/9/18
  • 2014, Mikko Ilonen: 5/33/37/MC/8/MC/38/32
  • 2013, Paul Casey: MC/16/MC/8/MC/51/45/53
  • 2012, Jamie Donaldson: 51/3/63/44/15/53/WD/22

Event Form: Given the nomadic nature of this event, the mixed nature of Irish Open results for our recent winners isn’t overly surprising:

  • 2025, Rory McIlroy: MC/7/50/35/34/10/MC/MC/MC/1/MC/28/59/16/2
  • 2024, Rasmus Hojgaard: 41/MC/MC
  • 2023, Vincent Norrman: 61
  • 2022, Adrian Meronk: 10/MC
  • 2021, Lucas Herbert: 55/7
  • 2020, John Catlin: Debut
  • 2019, Jon Rahm: 1/4
  • 2018, Russell Knox: 2
  • 2017, Jon Rahm: Debut
  • 2016, Rory McIlroy: MC/7/50/35/34/10/MC/MC/MC
  • 2015, Soren Kjeldsen: MC/33/MC/35/6/64/MC/45/35/30/MC/18/MC
  • 2014, Mikko Ilonen: 49/MC/WD/16/MC/MC/10/32
  • 2013, Paul Casey: MC/13/2
  • 2012, Jamie Donaldson: MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/13/21/45

A new course to the Tour muddies the water this week as is often the case on the DP World Tour, however players with a positive links record in the UK and Ireland may well like what they see here this week.

My final Amgen Irish Open tips are as follows:

Matt Wallace 2.5pts EW 25/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

With last week’s headline selection Matt Wallace finishing in a tie for 9th, my knee-jerk reaction was to drop him this week – however the experience of missing Joe Dean’s win by bailing out too early is still fresh in my mind and I’ll give the Englishman another chance this week.

The focus will undoubtedly be on Rory vs Rahm which might just suit the Hillingdon man this week, having gone off as favourite with some firms last week and seen as one of the most likely winners at Crans given his sparkling record there. Whether the organisers get their duel between the two former OWGR number 1s remains to be seen, although with such a strong field lined up behind the pair, taking single-digit prices about either of them holds little appeal despite their obvious chances.

Wallace has got to fall into the category of one of those players who’s capable of standing up to the market leaders if he finds himself in contention, and he’ll certainly want to show what he’s capable of against two seasoned Ryder Cup stars given his own aspirations of making the 2027 team. What he will need to do though – and I’m sure he’s acutely aware of the fact – is tighten up on the short putts which ultimately cost him the chance of winning last week.

On paper Matt gained 0.7 of a stroke overall on the Crans putting surfaces over the four days, however the eye test – or at least the shot tracker stats for the most part – tell a different story. He missed his par putt from 17 inches on his first hole last week before missing his birdie putt from an inch shorter on his last; he also 3-putted the short 11th on the opening two days. Don’t forget he missed the play-off by 3 shots in the end.

A 9-under weekend was positive though and perhaps he can push on this week with those short misses in the past and a new week to attack, giving him chance to reset mentally and focus on the many positives in his game right now. 6th for SG Tee to Green last week was an eye-catcher, and with links runner-up finishes at both Hillside and Fairmont St Andrews to his name since 2019, he’ll be more capable than many of taking to Doonbeg on his first attempt.

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Jacob Skov Olesen 1.5pts EW 35/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

One of the most likely players to break their maiden before this season is through is Jacob Skov Olesen, and the most likely terrain upon which he might achieve the feat would be links, so this week adds up to a must-back for the Dane in my view.

The Copenhagen resident shared the lead after day 1 at last year’s Open Championship before finishing 3rd at Trump Aberdeen on his next start and 5th later in the year at the Dunhill Links, before finishing 3rd at Doha in February on another track that tends to carry strong form lines when it comes to links golf.

That effort in Qatar was the start of a strong set of results which has seen the 27 year-old rise to 11th in the Race to Dubai and currently in possession of the eighth of ten PGA Tour cards for next season, fuelled by a further seven top-10 finishes since Doha. 6th at the Corales, 9th in Denmark, 16th at the Nexo Championship, and 2nd on his last start at The Belfry are an impressive run of results since not qualifying for the Open Championship, and all that remains in my view is for him to convert one of those opportunities into that breakthrough win.

3rd at last year’s Nexo Championship is probably the most relevant piece of form on Jacob’s resume with its Trump and Hawtree correlation as well as the topography similarities, and after a week’s rest I can see him running a particularly prominent race here this week.

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Bernd Wiesberger 1pt EW 75/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Of the longer prices who caught my eye, Bernd Wiesberger makes most appeal following his 4th place finish last week at Crans.

Despite adding a ninth DP World Tour title to his CV earlier this year and sitting in the 6th automatic spot to qualify for a PGA Tour card next year, the bookies continue to overlook him in the market most weeks and it’s time for us to cash in on that oversight.

Since his China Open win at the end of April, the Austrian has finished 4th in his home Open and 3rd in Germany before last week’s effort in the Swiss Alps, and with his long game purring I see no reason to suggest he can’t produce a similar finish here this week, despite the increase in field quality. 9th for SG off the Tee, 11th for SG Approach and 7th for SG Tee to Green last week indicates how well he’s striking the ball right now; couple that with 3rd for SG Around the Green for the season to date and I think we have a player here who could seriously contend on a tricky links.

Talking of links golf, Wiesberger was 2nd at both the 2015 and 2019 editions of the Irish Open at Royal County Down and Lahinch respectively, plus he won the Scottish Open at Renaissance the week after that 2019 effort before tying for the first round lead on the same track a couple of months ago.

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Haotong Li 1pt EW 90/1 (8EW, 1/5) with BetFred

At a similar price, I’ve also backed Haotong Li who ticked too many boxes for me this week to be ignored.

With four wins at DP World Tour level over the years, we know that the Chinese star is capable of getting over the line – but we also know that his form is extremely streaky. That can make him a difficult player to pin down with missed cuts littering his record – and his recent record at that too – however when he gets it right he can and does oblige at decent odds, and in that respect is worth taking a punt on in my view.

Wins at the 2016 China Open, 2018 Dubai Desert Classic (where he pipped Rory to the title), and the 2022 BMW International Open when he was carrying our money were all impressive in their own right, however his Qatar Masters victory last year is probably the most relevant given the often linksy nature of the course in Doha. Couple that with top-4 finishes at Birkdale in 2017 and Portrush last year and we have a player who could potentially contend in the dunes here at Doonbeg.

That victory in Qatar was the foundation for his promotion season to the PGA Tour for 2026, however after a bright start with 8th at The American Express and 11th at Torrey Pines the week after, this year’s been largely a disappointment for the 31 year-old. His return to DP World Tour level when the Playoffs started across the Atlantic might just prove to be a good move as 37th at The Belfry improved to 18th last week in Crans, with 12th for SG Tee to Green and 2nd for SG Approach coupled with 81.9% of greens hit last week catching the eye. If the putter improves this week – and we know with Haotong how streaky he can be with that club – then don’t be surprised to see him in the mix.

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Shaun Norris 1pt EW 110/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Finally, I’ll complete this week’s team with Shaun Norris who can count himself unlucky with how the Nexo Championship unfolded when we last visited similar surroundings at Trump Aberdeen last month.

In a tie for the lead on Sunday and playing some great golf on the Martin Hawtree design on the east coast of Scotland, the 44 year-old was adjudged a 2-stroke penalty for kicking a divot away from under his stance on the 5th hole. Understandably that knocked his game for the rest of the day and he ultimately finished 7th, however his underlying long-game stats of 2nd for SG Off the Tee, 5th for SG Approach and 4th for SG Tee to Green tell us just how well he was playing before the incident, and that makes him dangerous if he can repeat that this week given how strong a putter he is.

62nd at The Belfry was understandable before taking last week off, however I wonder if we’ll see a refocused Norris this week looking for some kind of redemption on a similar dune-surrounded test this week.

At 15th on the Race to Dubai, the 44 year-old has plenty to play for as the Tour heads towards its business end, safe in the knowledge that if he can muster a third DP World Tour title this side of November then he’ll be playing PGA Tour golf next season in all likelihood. Shaun notched his 9th Japan Tour title at the end of May, winning the Mizuno Open by five strokes, and knows that he’s playing good enough golf to test the market leaders here this week.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 15:55BST 7.9.26 but are naturally subject to fluctuation