Congratulations if you were on-board Chris Kirk at a 25/1 Monday best price with bet365 last week at the Honda Classic. Kirk moves to Number 6 within the Team USA Ryder Cup rankings, above the likes of Sam Burns, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele and Jordan Spieth.
This week at Bay Hill we have another mini-Major designated field, with most of the PGA Tour’s elite stars using this as their lead-in to the Players Championship next week. Scottie Scheffler defends, with Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay (making his tournament debut), Xander Schauffele, Will Zalatoris, Max Homa, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau and many more all in the field. This is a tournament that top players undoubtedly want to add to their CVs, especially now following the passing of Arnold Palmer in September 2016.
Before we go into the detail surrounding the Arnold Palmer Invitational, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,100 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
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Course Guide: Bay Hill is a classical golf course just around the corner from the world famous Disney theme park and extremely close to the golfing commune of Windermere in Florida.
The stretching 7,466 yard, Par 72 features a set of tough par-4s, plus 3 of the par-5s measure over 555 yards. To score around here, every facet of a player’s game is tested to the maximum. Not many PGA Tour events these days feature 4″ of rough plus green complexes that can run as firm as 12 on the stimpmeter if the elements allow. Since the 2015 renewal, all holes and green complexes have been re-grassed, with the putting surfaces featuring TifEagle Bermudagrass as per last week at PGA National.
Bay Hill is a Florida set-up that’s classical in its nature. The course has changed quite considerably over the tenure of current Course Superintendent Chris Flynn, who’s taken strides to returning the layout closer to its original guise, saying recently, “In addition to extensive tree trimming, we widened and lengthened all the fairways. To balance out the fairway changes, we also removed a lot of the rough areas in front of water hazards and bunkers. These areas have traditionally served as backstops for players, but now there’s a higher chance of your ball rolling into those hazards. We’ve also made the traditionally high rough even higher than in the past.”
2019 saw a new tee box on the par-5 4th, which took the overall yardage up from 561 yards to 590 yards for the hole, with the overall course being extended 35 yards. 2022 saw Bay Hill in a new guise yet again with the short 13th par-4 jumping from 370 yards to 382 yards, taking its total yardage to 7,466 yards – and remember this is at sea level.
Bay Hill Country Club, Windermere, Florida: Designer: Wilson & Joe Lee 1961 with Arnold Palmer re-design 2009; Course Type: Florida, Classical, Technical, Long; Par: 72; Length: 7,466 yards; Holes with Water Hazards In-play: 9; Fairways: Celebration Bermuda overseeded with Perennial Rye; Rough: Celebration Bermuda overseeded with Perennial Rye 3″; Greens: 7,500 sq.ft average TifEagle Bermudagrass; Tournament Stimp: 12ft; Course Scoring Average 2012: 73.18 (+1.18), Difficulty Rank 12 of 49 courses. 2013: 72.93 (+0.93), Difficulty Rank 12 of 43 courses. 2014: 72.47 (+0.47), Rank 16 of 48 courses. 2015: 71.12 (-0.88), Rank 36 of 52 courses. 2016: 71.49 (-0.51), Rank 28 of 50 courses. 2017: 72.89 (+0.89), Rank 9 of 50 courses. 2018: 72.02 (+0.02), Rank 15 of 51 courses. 2019: 72.38 (+0.38), Rank 9 of 49 courses. 2020: 74.11 (+2.11), Rank 1 of 41 courses. 2021: 73.02 (+1.02), Rank 9 of 51 courses. 2022: 73.89 (+1.89), Rank 4 of 50 courses.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Arnold Palmer designs include:
Albany – 2015 – 2021 Hero World Challenge
Bay Hill Country Club – Arnold Palmer Invitational
Isleworth Golf & Country Club – 2014 Hero World Challenge
PGA West – Palmer Private – Host Course 2008 through 2015 Career Builder Challenge
TPC Boston – Dell Technologies Championship
TPC Twin Cities – 3M Open
PGA National Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Bay Hill and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
Riviera: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26 350:28.
TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
Seaside Course: 250 yards from the tee: 42 yards wide; 275:40; 300:34; 325:31; 350:23.
TPC Summerlin: 250 yards from the tee: 35 yards wide; 275:37; 300:33; 325:30; 350:31.
CC of Jackson: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:28; 300:29; 325:28; 350:25.
Silverado: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:26; 300:24; 325:25; 350:24.
Course Overview: 2015 saw Bay Hill receive a facelift. Fairways were widened and tree numbers were reduced, making driving here a lot easier than for the other Florida Swing stops at both PGA National, TPC Sawgrass and Copperhead. ‘Driving Distance – All Drives’ also paints a picture as Bay Hill perennially ranks in the top 15 shortest for all drives, highlighting that this course, when firm, cannot be simply over powered by brute force, although Bryson DeChambeau and Rory McIlroy may both disagree!
The new, wider Bay Hill format dictates that the strength of the wind is a key variable when it comes to scoring, as naturally are turf conditions and green speeds. The Bay Hill course has a set of par-3s which are some of the toughest on the PGA Tour and, if the course isn’t soft, it also has a set of par-4s which traditionally are some of the sternest on Tour.
The 2019 renewal won with an amazing Sunday final round -8/64 by Francesco Molinari, saw course scoring as: par-3 Scoring Average – 7th most difficult on Tour, par-4 Scoring Average – 6th most difficult, and par-5 Scoring Average 19th most difficult. Those numbers will have only got far worse after 2020’s tournament where Tyrrell Hatton captured his first PGA Tour title of his career with a winning score of -4/284. Only the Englishman, Marc Leishman, Sungjae Im and Bryson DeChambeau shot under par. Bay Hill played +2.11 shots over par, which made it the toughest golf course on the whole of the 2019/20 PGA Tour.
2021 saw mixed conditions with Lift, Clean and Place in play during a showery Saturday. With a softer course, Keegan Bradley shot -8/64 and Doug Ghim and Lee Westwood shot a pair of -7/65s. The beauty of Bay Hill though is that just 24 hours later with firm, releasing greens and 25 mph gusting winds, only Andrew Putnam, Matt Wallace and winner Bryson DeChambeau broke par.
All of which highlights that firm conditions can make this classical golf course a pretty U.S. Open-type test. Bay Hill perennially ranks in the top 5 in terms of difficulty for Proximity to Hole, so to score heavily here players need to make their fair share of putts on the TifEagle Bermudagrass putting surfaces. Pure ball-strikers alone will not get the job done; instead Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau, Tyrrell Hatton, Francesco Molinari, Rory McIlroy, Marc Leishman, Jason Day and Matt Every, across both of the Floridian’s 2014 and 2015 wins, ranked 17th (Scheffler), 21st, 15th, 4th, 1st, 2nd, 6th, 8th and 3rd in Strokes Gained Putting.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Winners: 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-5); 2021: Bryson DeChambeau (-11); 2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-5); 2019: Francesco Molinari (-12); 2018: Rory McIlroy (-18); 2017: Marc Leishman (-11); 2016: Jason Day (-17); 2015: Matt Every (-19); 2014: Matt Every (-13); 2013: Tiger Woods (-13); 2012: Tiger Woods (-13); 2011: Martin Laird (-8); 2010: Ernie Els (-11).
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats | SG Stats.
Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Sungjae Im, Tyrrell Hatton, Will Zalatoris, Tony Finau, Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Winners & Prices: 2022: Scheffler 16/1; 2021: DeChambeau 12/1; 2020: Hatton 55/1; 2019: Molinari 33/1; 2018: McIlroy 20/1; 2017: Leishman 100/1; 2016: Day 14/1; 2015: Every 300/1; 2014: Every 66/1; 2013: Woods 3/1; 2012: Woods 8/1; 2011: Laird 45/1; 2010: Els 16/1. Past 9 Renewals Average: 68/1; Overall Average: 53/1.
For a full summary of winner’s odds on the PGA Tour since 2010 click here.
Historical Weather:
2022: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 82. Wind NNE 4-8 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 84. Wind E 10-15 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 84. Wind ESE 14-18 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 87. Wind SE 13-18 mph, with gusts to 22 mph.
2021: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 74. Wind NNW 9-13 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 77. Wind NNE 6-12 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High of 68. Wind ENE 10-15 mph. Preferred lies were in effect. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 68. Wind ENE 15-20 mph, with gusts to 24 mph.
2020: Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high of 89. Wind SSW 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy and cooler. High of 75. Wind NW 12-16 mph, with gusts to 22 mph. Saturday: Sunny and cool. High of 66. Wind N/NE 10-16 mph, with gusts to 23 mph. Sunday: Cloudy, with a high of 73. Wind ENE 15-20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph.
2019: Thursday: Sunny. High of 73. Wind NE 6-12 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 80. Wind SE 6-12 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 84. Wind SE 10-15 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High of 87. Wind S 5-10 mph.
2018: Thursday: Sunny with a high of 72. Wind WNW 4-8 mph. Friday: Sunny with a high of 77. Wind variable 3-6 mph. Saturday: Sunny with a high of 83. Wind SW 5-12 mph. Sunday: Sunny with a high of 85. Wind W 6-12 mph.
2017: Thursday: Sunny and cool with a high of 63. Wind NNW 10-15 mph. Friday: Sunny with a high of 71. Wind NE 6-12 mph. Saturday: Sunny with a high of 79. Wind WSW 5-10 mph. Sunday: Sunny with a high of 78. Wind NNW 12-18 mph with gusts of 25 mph.
2016: Weather: Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high of 85 degrees. Wind WSW 7-12 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 88 degrees. Winds SSW 7-12 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Afternoon gave way to scattered showers totalling 0.25” of rainfall. High of 82. Wind SW 10-15. Sunday: Scattered showers in the morning followed by partly cloudy and breezy conditions in the afternoon. High of 80. Wind WNW.
2015: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 85. Wind SE at 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 87. Wind W at 5-10 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 85. Wind W at 5-10 mph. Sunday: W wind at 10-15 mph. Mostly cloudy and warm. High of 88.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Bay Hill, Florida, is here.
There hasn’t been a lot of rain in the Orlando area recently, and there was none last week. Rain in tournament week also looks unlikely, so personally I’d expect plenty of run on the fairways and a course which is in a perfect spot. Temperature wise, expect 32-33 Celsius (90-91 Fahrenheit) on Thursday/Friday, dropping significantly to 23-23 Celsius (72-73 Fahrenheit) on the weekend.
The big news though looks like the levels of wind. Thursday and Sunday look to be the scoring days with gusts up to 15 mph (from opposite directions). Winds over 30mph look possible on Friday and over 20mph on Saturday, so Bay Hill will undoubtedly turn into a Major difficulty test across those days, especially if the greens have a little release in them.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Sentry Tournament of Champions which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Keith Mitchell; 2) Scottie Scheffler; 3) Viktor Hovland; 4) Jason Day; 5) Tyrrell Hatton / Cameron Young; 7) Collin Morikawa; 8) Luke List; 9) Gary Woodland; 10) Adrian Meronk / Jon Rahm; 12) Corey Conners; 13) Patrick Cantlay / Rory McIlroy; 15) Hayden Buckley; 16) Will Zalatoris; 17) Joel Dahmen; 18) Brian Harman / J.J. Spaun; 20) Lucas Herbert; 21) Xander Schauffele; 22) Taylor Montgomery; 23) Taylor Moore; 24) Sam Burns / Tony Finau.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Tony Finau; 2) Jon Rahm; 3) Rory McIlroy; 4) Xander Schauffele; 5) Collin Morikawa; 6) Scottie Scheffler; 7) Pierceson Coody; 8) Max Homa; 9) Rickie Fowler / Chris Kirk; 11) Tom Hoge; 12) Cameron Young; 13) Sahith Theegala; 14) Tom Kim; 15) Patrick Cantlay / Adrian Meronk; 17) Viktor Hovland / Justin Thomas; 19) Eric Cole / Corey Conners / Hideki Matsuyama / Seamus Power; 23) Keegan Bradley / Joseph Bramlett / Ryan Fox / Robby Shelton.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Justin Thomas; 2) Hideki Matsuyama; 2) Chris Kirk; 4) Tommy Fleetwood; 5) Max Homa / Sungjae Im / Seamus Power / Danny Willett; 9) Beau Hossler; 10) Patrick Cantlay / Tom Kim / K.H. Lee / Rory McIlroy; 14) Billy Horschel; 15) Wyndham Clark; 16) Scott Stallings; 17) Sam Burns / Eric Cole / Si Woo Kim / Patrick Rodgers; 21) Keegan Bradley / Matt Fitzpatrick / Sahith Theegala; 24) Tony Finau; 25) J.J. Spaun.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Jon Rahm; 2) Scottie Scheffler; 3) Rory McIlroy; 4) Tony Finau; 5) Xander Schauffele; 6) Jason Day / Collin Morikawa; 8) Chris Kirk / Adrian Meronk; 10) Tyrrell Hatton / Keith Mitchell; 12) Hideki Matsuyama; 13) Max Homa / Justin Thomas; 15) Cameron Young; 16) Patrick Cantlay; 17) Viktor Hovland; 18) Sungjae Im; 19) Justin Rose; 20) Luke List / Seamus Power; 22) Wyndham Clark / Ryan Fox / Tom Kim; 25) Corey Conners / Scott Stallings.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Jason Day; 2) Max Homa; 3) Zach Johnson; 4) Sam Burns / Nick Taylor; 6) Alex Noren; 7) Will Zalatoris; 8) Lucas Herbert / Chris Kirk; 10) Cole Hammer / Sam Ryder; 12) Adam Hadwin / Si Woo Kim; 14) Padraig Harrington / Peter Malnati; 16) Scottie Scheffler; 17) Seamus Power; 18) Xander Schauffele; 19) Taylor Pendrith; 20) Taylor Montgomery / Jon Rahm; 22) Tony Finau; 23) S.H. Kim / Ben Taylor / Justin Thomas / Justin Suh / Aaron Wise.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Jason Day; 2) Jon Rahm; 3) Max Homa / Scottie Scheffler; 5) Tony Finau; 6) Chris Kirk; 7) Justin Thomas; 8) Xander Schauffele; 9) Rory McIlroy; 10) Tyrrell Hatton; 11) Collin Morikawa; 12) Viktor Hovland / Seamus Power; 14) Patrick Cantlay / Nick Taylor; 16) Hideki Matsuyama; 17) Keith Mitchell; 18) Will Zalatoris; 19) Adrian Meronk; 20) Rickie Fowler; 21) Si Woo Kim; 22) Sam Burns / Sungjae Im / Sam Ryder / Sahith Theegala.
For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at Bay Hill since 2016 click here.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the Arnold Palmer Invitational winners since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2022, Scottie Scheffler (-5). SG Off the Tee: 48th, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 28th, SG Tee to Green: 8th, SG Putting: 17th.
2021, Bryson DeChambeau (-11). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 9th, SG Around the Green: 30th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 21st.
2020, Tyrrell Hatton (-4). SG Off the Tee: 24th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 27th, SG Tee to Green: 5th, SG Putting: 15th.
2019, Francesco Molinari (-12). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 34th, SG Around the Green: 44th, SG Tee to Green: 13th, SG Putting: 4th.
2018, Rory McIlroy (-18). SG Off the Tee: 31st, SG Approach: 13th, SG Around the Green: 20th, SG Tee to Green: 7th, SG Putting: 1st.
2017, Marc Leishman (-11). SG Off the Tee: 32nd, SG Approach: 10th, SG Around the Green: 45th, SG Tee to Green: 13th, SG Putting: 2nd.
2016, Jason Day (-17). SG Off the Tee: 11th, SG Approach: 25th, SG Around the Green: 22nd, SG Tee to Green: 8th, SG Putting: 6th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
SG Off the Tee: 21st, SG Approach: 13th, SG Around the Green: 31st, SG Tee to Green: 8th, SG Putting: 22nd.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of Arnold Palmer Invitational winners since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this tough Florida golf test:
2022, Scottie Scheffler (-5). 312 yards (13th), 51.8% fairways (55th), 61.1% greens in regulation (9th), 36’10” proximity to hole (8th), 53.6 % scrambling (40th), 1.64 putts per GIR (4th).
2021, Bryson DeChambeau (-11). 321 yards (1st), 57.1% fairways (25th), 69.4% greens in regulation (2nd), 44’2″ proximity to hole (57th), 68.2 % scrambling (10th), 1.76 putts per GIR (29th).
2020, Tyrrell Hatton (-4). 287 yards (45th), 53.6% fairways (33rd), 58.3% greens in regulation (9th), 40″7″ proximity to hole (10th), 66.7 % scrambling (7th), 1.74 putts per GIR (13th).
2019, Francesco Molinari (-12). 295 yards (36th), 76.8% fairways (3rd), 66.7% greens in regulation (6th), 38’0″ proximity to hole (16th), 79.2 % scrambling (5th), 1.71 putts per GIR (18th).
2018, Rory McIlroy (-18). 317 yards (1st), 64.3% fairways (48th), 63.9% greens in regulation (45th), 30’0″ proximity to hole (1st), 80.8 % scrambling (1st), 1.61 putts per GIR (1st).
2017, Marc Leishman (-11). 294 yards (26th), 73.2% fairways (17th), 73.6% greens in regulation (1st), 39’11” proximity to hole (39th), 68.4 % scrambling (16th), 1.74 putts per GIR (23rd).
2016, Jason Day (-17). 305 yards (6th), 67.9% fairways (44th), 63.9% greens in regulation (29th), 40’11” proximity to hole (59th), 73.1 % scrambling (20th), 1.59 putts per GIR (5th).
2015, Matt Every (-19). 290 yards (34th), 73.2% fairways (34th), 80.6% greens in regulation (2nd), 31’6″ proximity to hole (3rd), 64.3 % scrambling (30th), 1.66 putts per GIR (7th).
2014, Matt Every (-13). 282 yards (48th), 60.7% fairways (51st), 72.2% greens in regulation (7th), 33’8″ proximity to hole (11th), 60.0 % scrambling (34th), 1.65 putts per GIR (3rd).
2013, Tiger Woods (-13). 279 yards (49th), 53.6% fairways (71st), 63.9% greens in regulation (34th), 38’10” proximity to hole (46th), 61.5% scrambling (32nd), 1.63 putts per GIR (1st).
2012, Tiger Woods (-13). 295 yards (11th), 64.3% fairways (29th), 79.2% greens in regulation (1st), 36’4″ proximity to hole (20th), 60.0% scrambling (10th), 1.84 putts per GIR (52nd).
2011, Martin Laird (-8). 297 yards (5th), 71.4% fairways (22nd), 68.1% greens in regulation (20th), 40’11” proximity to hole (59th), 52.2% scrambling (34th), 1.78 putts per GIR (22nd).
2010, Ernie Els (-11). 291 yards (17th), 69.6% fairways (7th), 69.4% greens in regulation (9th), 39’5″ proximity to hole (44th), 50.0% scrambling (40th), 1.68 putts per GIR (15th).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 22nd, Driving Accuracy: 34th, Greens in Regulation: 13th, Proximity to Hole: 29th, Scrambling: 21st, Putting Average 15th.
Let’s take a view from players as to how Bay Hill sets up and what skill sets the course favours:
Scottie Scheffler (2022): “The greens like, it’s hard to putt on them because you don’t know if there’s going to be friction. There’s so little grass, so sometimes there is and sometimes there isn’t. With the wind the way it is, if you’re putting even uphill putts, the wind is affecting them so much that it’s so difficult to putt the greens.”
“I mean, 15 and 16. 15 was brutal, just I got up and down from 150 yards out of the rough. 16’s an easy par-5, so there’s a little bit of shock when I have to lay up and try to make par from 65 yards versus going for the green in two. That was probably the most difficult just because I expected to have a really good look for birdie at the worst and all of a sudden I’m grinding for par. For me to stay in it mentally and keep grinding on that hole was huge.”
“Those lag putts at the end were pretty tough. It’s not really a comfortable position having to hit it to 50 feet and try and two-putt with the lead. But I just trusted myself and played conservative the last two holes, and pars were good enough.”
Bryson DeChambeau (2021): “Well I think there’s a lot of holes you have to kind of step up on and be confident with. Bay Hill is very visually intimidating and if you can conquer that and execute a great shot, you’re already ahead of the field.”
“Man, after that drive on 1, I was thinking, Uh-oh, this is not going to be a great day. And sure enough I was able to salvage a bogey. From then on out, I just told myself, Keep your head down, this is going to be a gruelling day, make as many pars as you can, make birdies where you can. And people are going to backtrack. This is not a golf course that you can shoot a lot under par and in conditions like they were today. You know, 20 mile an hour, 29 mile an hour gusts is what I saw and firm greens, firm fairways, long rough. This is what you do to make it play really, really difficult and have it be an amazing competition.“
“It didn’t play that tough the first three days, considering the rain yesterday, but today definitely played like a U.S. Open. You could see that not very many people were under par. I don’t know how many people were under par. There were three people under par? Yeah, and so you could definitely note how difficult the golf course conditions were. And I took a lot of pride in knowing the fact that in these difficult conditions I can persevere and win a golf tournament, like I did at the U.S. Open. So I took a lot from that tournament and played it into this event, knowing that there are going to be weird things that come about, and just make sure that you are focused on hitting as many fairways and as many greens and having good speed control on the putting green.”
Tyrrell Hatton (2020): “I mean, the greens are pretty firm anyway so I think they’re only going to get firmer throughout the week. I wouldn’t say it was an advantage going out really early this morning because they were still kind of rock hard then. So it’s an interesting challenge, the course is in great condition and we’ll see how it goes.”
“Yeah, the wind was obviously coming from a slightly different direction, so obviously some holes played easier, some played tougher. To give you an indication, the 9th hole, yesterday I was trying to hit a flighted 4-iron into there and today we were hitting a 9-iron. So it shows you the difference.I mean, it’s obviously a tough course. The setup with the fairways are fairly soft and then you’ve got pretty firm greens. So if you miss fairways you’re punished because the rough is so thick. And it’s not like you can run the ball up onto the greens from the rough because they are kind of too soft, they don’t release. And then equally, if you’re trying to pitch a ball on the greens out of the rough, they’re just not stopping. So that’s obviously quite a challenge.”
Francesco Molinari (2019): “No, yeah, definitely I got everything out of it. I was saying before, it’s probably my best putting round ever. I started making two great putts at the 1st and 2nd for birdie and par and then just kept going, hit the ball reasonably well, I won’t say it was my best, but, yeah, the putting was just incredible. But I did well to keep it going, keep pushing through the back nine. It’s not easy, this golf course, when it gets firm like this, you don’t get too many chances, so I’m really pleased with what I’ve done.”
“I think yesterday playing in the third to last group probably I saw it as tough as it can be and today it was a little bit easier compared to that, just a tiny bit softer. And, yeah, I just started well and made a couple of great putts at the beginning and then just tried to keep pushing and keep going, so I don’t know if it’s going to be enough or not, but I’m proud of what I’ve done today.”
Rory McIlroy (2018): “This is a golf course where you need to play the par-3s well and play the par-5s well and to be only 1-under on the par-5s is, I need to do that better. So I guess with shooting what I shot today and only being that, it’s not a, it’s not disastrous. But yeah, I need to take advantage of the par-5s, because that’s – look at Tiger’s won it plenty of times around here and that’s what he did, he can be conservative and play conservative for the most part, but if you make birdies on the par-5s, you’re going to be right up there.”
Marc Leishman: “I think I missed my first fairway on number 15. So if you can drive it on the fairway around here, that’s really important, especially with the greens the way they are, pretty firm and very quick. So that’s a start. And then, obviously, you got to try and leave yourself uphill putts and then you got to make them. So it was everything that clicked today, it’s nice to play well and get a good score out of it.”
Jason Day: “I mean today, I was pretty aggressive with the par-5s for the most part. I still tried to stay aggressive on the par-5s today but you know I hooked a 4 metal on 4 and ended up making a bogey and then I hit another 4 metal on 12 and ended up making a birdie. You know, there’s no formula to it. You have to come to a golf course like this and just crush the par-5s. That’s more where all the scoring is. If you can get on the fairways, give yourself an opportunity to get to the green or around the green, let the short game take over and make birdies.”
Rory McIlroy: “As I said earlier, I came away from this golf course kicking myself that I hadn’t played it more often because I feel like it’s a golf course that suits my game. The par-5s are quite long and I feel with my length I can take advantage of those. Very strong par-3s and the par-4s give you some chances but there’s a lot of strong par-4s out there. I feel like it’s a golf course that sets up well for me and you can’t not feel good about your putting on these greens, they’re so pure, that get the ball started on line with decent speed you know it’s got a great chance of going in.”
Henrik Stenson: “It’s a course where you can’t get away with playing only decent, you’ve got to play pretty well around here. Quite a lot of shots, especially towards the end when you got to commit and hit some good shots coming in and ball striking is normally one of my strong parts. Maybe two years ago or three years ago there when I think I finished 8th I put that down to magician around the greens. My pitching was phenomenal and I putted nicely. I wasn’t playing that great but I still managed to squeeze a good finish out of it when I needed to have a chance to get in Augusta last on that year and last year was pretty solid. I didn’t putt well and then this year I’ve been playing and putting well. I think it’s a pretty tough course. It’s been a bit easier this year due to the softness of the greens and lack of wind but it’s still quite a few shots that can come up and bite you if you don’t hit good – in a few the holes if you don’t hit good shots at the right time. They can definitely bite back.”
Martin Laird: “Sand seems the same. That’s just what you know, you’ve got to expect it here. You know, for example, on 17, if you come up short, it’s going to plug in that face. You just can’t come up short. Pretty much every hole out here, the chances are, I mean, three out of four balls are probably going to plug, a lot of the shots here. So that’s just to be expected. The bunkers are a true penalty around this golf course. It’s not like some courses, you almost aim for bunkers sometimes as a good spot to get up and down.”
Graeme McDowell: “The course is in magnificent shape. Nice amount of rough. I heard a comment to where Arnie kind of wants it to play as a U.S. Open off the tee. And Augusta-esque around the greens. And I can see what he’s trying to achieve. The greens, like I say on Sunday, the firmness and the speed of the greens was very Augusta-esque with these new runoff areas that he’s created the last few years. The golf course is pretty tight off the tee. Nice amount of rough. I’ve always enjoyed the way the golf course sets up for me. I’ve had a couple of good years here. Basically it’s my home event these days. Used to be the Irish Open was my home event, this is home these days. So it’s a special tournament for me.”
Ernie Els: “We play some of the toughest par-3s at Bay Hill. Actually in the whole of Florida, the whole of the Florida Swing, we play tough par 3s and Bay Hill is especially long. The 14th hole depending on the winds you can hit anything from 6-iron to 3-iron or 5-wood. It’s well bunkered with bunkers on the left side, the front right and quite a small green, so you have to be accurate. Like all of the par 3s, if you can make pars even, you’ve done very well, so a tough hole.”
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the last 13 Arnold Palmer Invitational winners:
Shots From the Lead: Below are the last 13 Arnold Palmer Invitational winners and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
8 – Rory McIlroy.
6 – Justin Thomas.
5 – Jordan Spieth.
4 – Jason Day, Billy Horschel, Zach Johnson, Si Woo Kim, Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler.
3 – Sam Burns, Chris Kirk, Kevin Kisner, Ryan Palmer, Xander Schauffele.
2 – Patrick Cantlay, Harris English, Rickie Fowler, Russell Henley, Mackenzie Hughes, Justin Rose, Adam Scott, Webb Simpson.
1 – Aaron Baddeley, Keegan Bradley, Stewart Cink, Tony Finau, Adam Hadwin, Padraig Harrington, Tyrrell Hatton, Lucas Herbert, Garrick Higgo, Max Homa, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Patton Kizzire, Martin Laird, Peter Malnati, Hideki Matsuyama, Keith Mitchell, Francesco Molinari, Collin Morikawa, Seamus Power, J.J. Spaun, Scott Stallings, Sepp Straka, Kevin Streelman, Adam Svensson, Nick Taylor, Brendon Todd, Aaron Wise, Gary Woodland, Will Zalatoris.
Read any player interview around this week and you’ll note that ‘Arnie’s tournament’ has a Major feel about it. The emotion attached to this week only heightened that feeling 6 years ago, which was the first Arnold Palmer Invitational since the great man’s passing away. This is no standard domestic PGA Tour event and clearly has been heightened another notch with its designated status.
Taking Tiger and out of the equation, recent top 3 finishers here include the likes of Bradley (twice), Cabrera-Bello , Day (winner 2016), DeChambeau (winner 2021), Els (winner 2010), Fitzpatrick, Fleetwood, Fowler, Hatton (twice, including winner 2020), Im, Horschel, Hovland, Kisner, Laird (winner 2011), McDowell, McIlroy (winner 2018), Poulter, Rose (3 times), Scheffler (winner 2022), Scott, Stenson (3 times) and Westwood. All were inside the Official World Golf Rankings top 50 when they competed and all had invites in their back pocket for Augusta.
Only Matt Every when defending (2015, 96th OWGR 300/1) and Marc Leishman (2017, 62nd OWGR, 100/1) have won this event when ranked outside the top 50 in the World Rankings, going back to 2006.
For me this week is quite a defined exercise. The nature of the course dictates that par-5 scoring is essential and birdie conversion tends to be driven predominantly by those who are at their most comfortable on grainy Bermudagrass greens, especially of the TifEagle variety. Therefore I want players who’ve performed well on TifEagle Bermudagrass greens, ideally in Florida. If it’s in this calendar year, even better.
Clearly we can also work off DP World Tour courses such Emirates GC (Dubai Desert Classic) and the Earth Course (DP World Tour Championship). This is quite a specialised event so strong results on Florida-type courses such as Doral (from the past), PGA National, TPC Sawgrass and The Concession (WGC 2021) should also be embraced.
My Final Arnold Palmer Invitational Tips Are As Follows:
Scottie Scheffler 3pts Enhanced Win Only 21/2 with bet365
Of the top 3 in the market, the only one that tempts me is a win-only bet on defending champion Scottie Scheffler.
He won only 3 weeks ago at the WM Phoenix Open at 14/1, becoming World Number 1 for a week into the bargain. Scottie with that win joined the new phenomenon of defending champions retaining their titles. Take K.H. Lee out of the equation, and since November 2021 we have seen 12/1 (Hovland), 25/1 (Burns), 11/1 (McIlroy), 16/1 (Cantlay), 16/1 (Homa) and 14/1 (Scheffler) price-points go win/win. Not at all inspiring it has to be said – but it’s been happening regularly enough. For the record, the biggest price to win in 2023 on the PGA Tour is Si Woo Kim at 45/1, and even Justin Rose and Chris Kirk have won at 25/1 in the past 4 weeks.
Back to World Number 2 Scheffler, whose form here at Bay Hill reads 15/1. Current form reads 7/11/1/12 and clearly after his TPC Scottsdale win, he seems to take stock from defending a title. It’s also noticeable that Scheffler loves Bermudagrass greens as 4 of his 5 PGA Tour wins gleaned in the past 55 weeks have come on them.
Scheffler also impressed with his amazing tee-to-green game at Riviera last time out. 1st for Total Driving, 2nd for Total Accuracy, 8th for Greens in Regulation and 2nd for Ball Striking, Scottie from a Strokes Gained perspective ranked 2nd for Off the Tee and 16th for Tee to Green. RESULT: T4
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Will Zalatoris 2.25pts EW 22/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
Talk of Major Championship scoring conditions and a long, classical course point me instantly to Will Zalatoris.
A winner for us at 28/1 of the FedEx St Jude Championship back in August, Will is back on the up-trend after suffering two herniated discs in his back, leading to 4 months off post-BMW Championship last summer, disappointingly missing both the Tour Championship and President’s Cup as a result.
Form in 2023 has been up and down with 11th at Kapalua, 36th at PGA West, MC at Torrey Pines and 4th at Riviera. Naturally that 4th spot at Riviera, which was his best career finish at “Hogan’s Alley”, interests especially when you look at his stats. 13th for Total Driving, 8th for Greens in Regulation and 4th for Ball Striking; from a Strokes Gained perspective Will ranked 4th for Off the Tee, 10th for Approach and 6th for Tee to Green.
A Wake Forest University graduate, Zalatoris is also very comfortable in these geographic climes and to this point he’s actually been a positive putter on Bermudagrass greens. 25th for Strokes Gained Putting when taking out the FedEx St Jude, Zalatoris was also 13th for the same stat on the TifEagle Bermudagrass greens of Kapalua on his re-emergence this season. Worthy of note is that Will also ranks 7th for Putting across my 8-week Strokes Gained trackers, which I’m sure will surprise plenty of readers.
10th here on tournament debut in 2021, the World Number 7 also has huge motivational links this week. Zalatoris studied on an Arnold Palmer scholarship at Wake Forest, where Palmer also graduated, so I’m expecting a full-blown tilt on this hugely prodigious title. Plus on a course where the par-5s are more than gettable, I love the fact that Will ranks 1st this season for 5 Birdie or Better Conversion on the longest holes. RESULT: T53
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Jason Day has been highly prominent in 2023 and arrives at a course where he won in 2016.
18th at PGA West, 7th at Torrey Pines, 5th at TPC Scottsdale and 9th at Riviera is undoubtedly top-notch form. Across my 8-week Strokes Gained tracker (which includes DP World Tour), that translates in this field to ranks of 4th for Off the Tee, 6th for Tee to Green, 1st for Putting and 1st for Strokes Gained Total. So finding Day outside the top dozen in the betting shouts value, especially when the Aussie ranks 11th for Strokes Gained for those with multiple appearances here at Bay Hill since 2016 in our Arnold Palmer Invitational Strokes Gained rankings.
9th last time out at the Genesis Invitational was really eye-catching on the basis that his record at Riviera across his 5 previous appearances there read MC-MC-62-64-MC. A Friday 67 (T2 for daily scoring) safely delivered the World Number 47 into the weekend’s action, and a closing Sunday 65 (T2 for daily scoring) took the 35 year-old into a top-10 finish.
A blustery and firmish Bay Hill this week should also play to the Australian’s strengths. 4 of Day’s 12 PGA Tour victories have come on Bermudagrass greens, with 2 coming in Florida – namely the 2016 Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players Championship. He was also 11th – 5 shots back – on his last visit in 2021 heading into Sunday, before a final round 79 dropped him to 31st. The 2015 PGA Championship winner is undoubtedly playing much better stuff 24 months on. RESULT: T10
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OWGR deadlines always spring up at this time of the golfing year. The WGC Dell Match Play’s field is taken after The Players Championship next week – with the field based around the OWGR top 64 (what happens now with LIV players is unsure). Then post the WGC Match Play, those within the top 50 in the OWGR who are not already exempt will qualify for the 2023 Masters.
Up over 30 spots in the OWGR so far in 2023, now ranking 70th in the world, it’s clear that Rickie Fowler has plenty to play for over the next couple of weeks, sitting outside both the Match Play and Masters fields currently. 54th at The American Express, 11th at the Farmers Insurance Open, 10th at the WM Phoenix Open and 20th at the Genesis Invitational, Fowler ranks 20th for Stroked Gained Total across my 8-week tracker.
He’s also got some fascinating form here at Bay Hill. 5th after 54 holes (he finished 30th) in 2011, 3rd in 2013, 12th in 2017, 14th in 2018 and 18th in 2020 – Rickie has played well enough over his 11 appearances here.
Riviera Country Club has always been a course where he has struggled at in the past, so my eyebrows raised ever so slightly when he finished 20th there last time out, equalling his best ever finish there. He ranked 8th for Strokes Gained Off the Tee, 9th for Approach and 12th for Tee to Green in California, shooting a Sunday 67 (T5 in the field). We haven’t really seen Strokes Gained Ball Striking numbers like that from Rickie since better days in 2017 through 2019, so I for one am happy to be on-board this week at an event where Fowler should be highly motivated. RESULT: T31
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Sepp Straka 0.75pt EW 180/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
The cross-over with the Honda Classic and here is quite distinct. Rory McIlroy has won at both PGA National and Bay Hill. Tiger Woods is an 8-time winner here and finished 2nd at the 2012 Honda Classic on course debut. Tyrrell Hatton has finished 4th at PGA National and won here. You can throw last week’s Honda Classic winner Chris Kirk, Sungjae Im, Matt Jones, Keith Mitchell, Lee Westwood and Gary Woodland all into the same mastering Bay Hill / PGA National mix.
So I love the look of Sepp Straka this week on the Bermudagrass he craves. 5th last week at the Honda Classic, we find him at these extravagant odds the week after. Ok, it’s a massively stronger field and clearly course form of MC/MC/MC drives that price, but Sepp is within the top 30 in the world and his Bermudagrass record of late is amazing.
Since the turn of 2022, Straka on Bermudagrass has finished 1st and 5th at the Honda Classic, 9th at TPC Sawgrass, 3rd at Harbour Town, 2nd at TPC Southwind, 6th for 72-hole scoring at East Lake (Tour Championship), and 2nd at the Country Club of Jackson. You can also throw 4th and 5th in Houston (2019 CC of Houston & 2020 Memorial Park) and 4th at PGA West (2020) into Sepp’s Bermudagrass top performances in the United States profile.
2nd for Driving Accuracy, 5th for Total Driving, 1st for Greens in Regulation, 4th for Ball Striking and 7th for Proximity last week at PGA National, from a Strokes Gained perspective he ranked 2nd for Approach and 6th for Tee to Green.
The US-based Austrian, who now ranks as the 8th best European in the OWGR, Straka is having a real crack at the Ryder Cup in 2023, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him in the mix this week in Florida. RESULT: MC
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2023 Majors Competition, Sponsored By bet365
