Steve Bamford

Steve Bamford's AT&T Pebble Beach Tips 2022

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Congratulations to you if you were on Luke List last week at Monday prices up to 90/1 (bet365). Funnily enough List ranked T4 in my 8-week Strokes Gained Tee to Green tracker, alongside my 28/1 selection Will Zalatoris, so he was clearly playing some great stuff. List is one of the ‘nice guys’ of pro golf, so it was good to see him get his maiden win on his 206th PGA Tour appearance. Zalatoris, on the other hand, became my 6th runner-up of this PGA Tour season – unbelievable!

We move 450 miles up the Californian coast from La Jolla to the beautiful Carmel Bay for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. We return to a 156 professional/156 amateur Pro-Am in 2022. Naturally the host course is the star as we saw at the 2020 U.S. Open won by Gary Woodland. Tournament regulars Daniel Berger (defending), Patrick Cantlay, Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, Matt Kuchar and Brandt Snedeker are joined by the likes of Matt Fitzpatrick, Mackenzie Hughes. Kevin Kisner, Min Woo Lee, Seamus Power and Justin Rose to form a reasonable renewal of the AT&T, especially on a week when the Saudi International on the Asian Tour has such a strong field.

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Before we go into the detail surrounding the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,000 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

Course Guide: The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is a full-field event played over 3 different courses to allow such a large field including amateur partners.

The iconic Pebble Beach Golf Links is the host course and all competitors play the course once before the 54 hole cut is made. At this point, the best 25 Pro-Am teams play Sunday with the top 65 professionals also playing the final round.

Spyglass Hill Golf Club and the Shore Course at Monterey Peninsula Country Club host the other 2 rounds of play. All courses are sub-7,000 yards in length, with the Shore Course playing as a rather unique Par 71 with three par-5s on the inward half making for a lopsided 34-37 course split.#

The courses are undoubtedly tricky with Pebble Beach invariably playing the hardest of the three, but in effect they only play as tough as the weather conditions dictate with in-form players always able to shoot low scores on the Poa Annua greens.

Pebble Beach Golf Links, Pebble Beach, California: Designer: Neville and Grant 1919 with Connor and Palmer 2007; Course Type: Coastal, Classical; Par: 72; Length: 7,051 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 1; Fairways: Poa Annua; Rough: Perennial Ryegrass 2″; Greens: 3,500 sq.ft average Poa Annua; Tournament Stimp: 10.5ft; Course Scoring Average 2012: 71.86 (-0.14), Difficulty Rank 24 of 49 courses. 2013: 71.41 (-0.59), Difficulty Rank 29 of 43 courses. 2014: 73.39 (+1.39), Rank 7 of 48 courses. 2015: 70.24 (-1.76), Rank 45 of 52 courses. 2016: 72.50 (+0.5), Rank 16 of 50 courses. 2017: 71.90 (-0.10), Rank 26 of 50 courses. 2018: 72.02 (+0.02), Rank 16 of 51 courses. 2019: 72.13 (+0.13), Rank of 12 of 49 courses. 2020: 72.52 (+0.52), Rank 8 of 41 courses. 2021: 71.20 (-0.80), Rank of 29 of 51 courses.

Spyglass Hill GC: Designer: Trent Jones Senior, 1966; Par: 72; Length: 7,041 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 4; Fairways: Perennial Ryegrass with Poa Annua; Rough: Perennial Ryegrass with Poa Annua 2″; Greens: 5,000 sq.ft average Poa Annua; Tournament Stimp: 10ft; Course Scoring Average 2012: 72.58 (+0.58), Difficulty Rank 18 of 49 courses. 2013: 72.64 (+0.64), Difficulty Rank 11 of 43 courses. 2014: 72.76 (+1.76), Rank 11 of 48 courses. 2015: 71.20 (-0.80), Rank 32 of 52 courses. 2016: 72.51 (+0.51), Rank 15 of 50 courses. 2017: 72.20 (+0.20), Rank 20 of 50 courses. 2018: 71.78 (-0.22), Rank 22 of 51 courses. 2019: 71.72 (-0.28), Rank 20 of 49 courses. 2020: 72.88 (+0.88), Rank 5 of 41 courses. 2021: 72.79 (+0.79), Rank 11 of 51 courses.

Monterey Peninsula CC – Shore Course. Designer: Baldock and Neville, 1959, with Strantz re-design 2003; Par: 71 (2014); Length: 6,958 yards (extended 2017); Greens: 6,000 sq. ft average Poa Annua grass; Stimpmeter: 11.5ft; Course Scoring Average 2012: 69.88 (-0.12), Difficulty Rank 23 of 49 courses. 2013: 70.24 (+0.24), Difficulty Rank 21 of 43 courses. 2014: 71.25 (+0.25), Rank 22 of 48 courses. 2015: 68.94 (-2.06), Rank 50 of 52 courses. 2016: 70.70 (-0.30), Rank 25 of 50 courses. 2017: 71.26 (+0.26), Rank 19 of 50 courses. 2018: 70.06 (-0.94), Rank 38 of 51 courses. 2019: 70.65 (-0.35), Rank 22 of 49 courses. 2020: 69.69 (-1.31), Rank 30 of 41 courses.

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for host course Pebble Beach Golf Links and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:

  • Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
  • Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
  • TPC Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
  • Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
  • Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
  • Seaside Course: 250 yards from the tee: 42 yards wide; 275:40; 300:34; 325:31; 350:23.
  • TPC Summerlin: 250 yards from the tee: 35 yards wide; 275:37; 300:33; 325:30; 350:31.
  • CC of Jackson: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:28; 300:29; 325:28; 350:25.
  • Silverado: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:26; 300:24; 325:25; 350:24.

Course Overview: As some of you will remember the Covid pandemic meant that last year’s AT&T tournament here was a non Pro-Am played over just Pebble Beach Golf Links (54 holes) and Spyglass Golf Club the Tournament Course (18 holes).

2022 sees a return to the Pro-Am format with a field of 156 professionals teamed with 156 amateurs. So we return to the 3-course rota over 72 holes with the return of the Par 71, Shore Course at Monterey Peninsula Country Club. This often plays the easiest of the 3 courses.

There’s an undoubted link between host course Pebble Beach and Torrey Pines South Course. Yes, Pebble may be over 800 yards shorter than Torrey, but the courses share coastal locations and Poa Annua seeded greens. Green complexes also vary in size with the 5,000 sq.ft. average greens at Torrey last week, replaced by postage stamp-sized 3,500 sq.ft. average greens at Pebble which are the smallest on Tour. 36 holes though of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am is played across Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula, who ably assist the famous host course, which has hosted 7 Major Championships. Spyglass and Monterey are similar to Pebble in the fact that they have real teeth if the weather is non-compliant. As per coastal golf in general, in tranquil conditions all 3 courses are very attackable.

Wide off the tee, where even the most wayward of drivers can hit over 1 in 2 fairways, host course Pebble Beach is a classical, second-shot golf course. The track is fairly unremarkable statistically unless the elements really close in. Fierce 2014-type conditions throughout are unlikely this year, but 15-20 mph winds look a feature on Sunday at the very least, which will undoubtedly tighten the scoring just a little. Key stats are that the green complexes at Pebble are traditionally some of the hardest to putt on from within 10 feet on the Tour. Miss the green and scrambling from distance becomes a real problem, as does making par from Pebble’s notorious bunkers. All as ever depends on the elements this week with regards target scoring, but the nature of this being a Pro-Am dictates that this only becomes a stiff test when conditions are dour.

pebble beach tips

Winners: 2021: Daniel Berger (-18); 2020: Nick Taylor (-19); 2019: Phil Mickelson (-19); 2018: Ted Potter Jnr (-17); 2017: Jordan Spieth (-19); 2016: Vaughn Taylor (-17); 2015: Brandt Snedeker (-22); 2014: Jimmy Walker (-11); 2013: Brandt Snedeker (-19); 2012: Phil Mickelson (-17); 2011: D.A. Points (-15); 2010: Dustin Johnson (-16).

Lead Score Progression:

  • 2021: Round 1 -10; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -13; Round 4 -18.
  • 2020: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -14; Round 3 -17; Round 4 -19.
  • 2019: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -10; Round 3 -15; Round 4 -19.
  • 2018: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -14; Round 4 -17.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Daniel Berger, Justin Rose, Patrick Cantlay, Matt Kuchar, Kevin Kisner, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Seamus Power, Cameron Tringale and Tom Hoge.

Tournament Winners & Prices: 2021: Berger 18/1; 2020: N Taylor 160/1; 2019: Mickelson 25/1; 2018: Potter Jnr 500/1; 2017: Spieth 9/1; 2016: V Taylor 300/1; 2015: Snedeker 25/1; 2014: Walker 28/1; 2013: Snedeker 14/1; 2012: Mickelson 25/1; 2011: Points 80/1; 2010: Johnson 22/1. Past 8 Renewals Average: 133/1; Overall Average: 101/1.

For a full summary of winner’s odds on the PGA Tour since 2010 click here.

Historical Weather:

  • 2021: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 59. Wind WNW 6-12 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 60. Wind NW 10-20 mph. Saturday: Scattered morning showers turning to partly cloudy skies. High of 56. Wind NW 15-25 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 58. Wind NW 10-20 mph.
  • 2020: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 62. Wind NW 6-12 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 63. Wind NW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 61. Wind NW 10-20 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 65. Wind NNE 15-25 mph.
  • 2019: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 54. Wind SW 8-12 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy with afternoon showers. High of 54. Wind SSE 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Play was suspended for the day at 2:11 p.m. PT due to heavy rain. Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning with heavy afternoon showers. High of 48. Wind SSW 15-20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Sunday: Due to wet conditions, the start of the final round was delayed for one hour. Rain and hail forced a suspension of play from 10:53 a.m.-1 p.m. Play was suspended due to darkness at 5:55 p.m., with two players left on the course. Mostly cloudy. High of 54. Wind NW 15-20 mph, with gusts to 27 mph. Monday: Partly cloudy. High of 54. Wind W 5-10 mph.
  • 2018: Thursday: Sunny. High of 70. Wind WNW 5-10 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 74. Wind WNW 8-16 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 65. Wind NNW 12-22 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 64. Wind WNW 15-25 mph.
  • 2017: Thursday: Mostly cloudy in the morning with moderate to heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Wind S 10-15 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Due to unplayable conditions, play was suspended at 1:34 PST. Play was later called for the day with a resumption time Friday: Due to further rainfall and unplayable conditions Friday morning, the first round did not resume until 8:30 a.m. PST and was completed at 10:46 a.m. Rainy with a high of 60. Wind WSW 5-10 mph. The second round was suspended for the day due to fog at 4:21 p.m. Saturday: The second round resumed at 7:30 a.m. Saturday and was completed at 10:14 a.m. Third-round tee times began at 10 a.m. Partly cloudy with a high of 59. Wind NNW 10-15 mph. Sunday: Sunny with a high of 61. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
  • 2016: Thursday: Sunny, and warm with a high of 75 degrees. Wind W 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy with a high of 64 degrees. Wind NW 7-12 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy with a high of 63 degrees. Wind WNW 10-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Due to fog, the start of round three was delayed 30 minutes. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 69. Wind NW 10-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Pebble Beach, California is here.

Conditions for the 2022 renewal of the AT&T Pebble Beach look very northern European in their nature. With temperatures reaching a maximum of 13-16 degrees Celsius across all 4 days, plenty in the field will find this pretty cold. Little rain, only 2mm in January, will see the course firmer than 12 months ago. We did see firmish conditions here in 2018, when Ted Potter Jnr won at -17/270.

Wind-wise, Thursday looks calm, with no wind whatsoever on Friday. so expect good scoring. Saturday looks like moving day with a light breeze, but Sunday could see 15-25 mph north easterly winds.

Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Bermuda Championship which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events. Players rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

  • Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Min Woo Lee; 2) Cameron Champ; 3) Patrick Cantlay / Ryan Palmer; 5) Troy Merritt; 6) Joel Dahmen; 7) Daniel Berger / Austin Eckroat / Keith Mitchell; 10) Matt Kuchar; 11) Paul Barjon; 12) Aaron Rai; 13) Dean Burmester; 14) Matt Fitzpatrick; 15) Maverick McNealy; 16) Kevin Kisner; 17) Alex Smalley / Kyle Stanley; 19) Trey Mullinax; 20) Lanto Griffin; 21) Joseph Bramlett / Chris Kirk; 23) Davis Riley / Kevin Streelman; 25) Seamus Power / Greyson Sigg.
  • Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Satoshi Kodaira; 2) Daniel Berger; 3) Ryan Palmer; 4) Ben Crane; 5) Lucas Glover / Vaughn Taylor; 7) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 8) Justin Rose; 9) Matt Fitzpatrick / Chez Reavie; 11) Mackenzie Hughes / Min Woo Lee; 13) Dean Burmester / Lanto Griffin / D.J. Trahan; 16) Maverick McNealy / Nick Taylor / Cameron Tringale; 19) Greyson Sigg / Nick Watney; 21) Russell Knox; 22) Tom Hoge / Andrew Putnam / Aaron Rai / Charl Schwartzel.
  • Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Bo Van Pelt; 2) Matt Kuchar; 3) Vaughn Taylor; 4) Cameron Tringale; 5) Kevin Streelman; 6) Charl Schwartzel; 7) Patrick Rodgers; 8) Matt Fitzpatrick / Kevin Kisner / Matt Jones; 11) Denny McCarthy; 12) Daniel Berger; 13) Mackenzie Hughes; 14) Jim Knous; 15) Lee Hodges / Brendon Todd; 17) Chris Kirk / Satoshi Kodaira; 19) Peter Malnati; 20) Ryan Palmer / Seamus Power / Chase Seiffert; 23) Jason Day; 24) Scott Gutschewski / Min Woo Lee.
  • Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Ryan Palmer; 2) Min Woo Lee; 3) Daniel Berger; 4) Satoshi Kodaira; 5) Dean Burmester; 6) Vaughn Taylor; 7) Cameron Tringale; 8) Matt Fitzpatrick; 9) Kevin Kisner; 10) Patrick Cantlay; 11) Mackenzie Hughes; 12) Austin Eckroat / Maverick McNealy; 14) Ben Crane / James Hahn; 16) Tom Hoge; 17) Chris Kirk / Russell Knox / Greyson Sigg; 20) Denny McCarthy / Nick Taylor; 22) Joel Dahmen / Keith Mitchell; 24) Lucas Glover; 25) Lanto Griffin.
  • Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Matt Fitzpatrick; 2) Mito Pereira 3) Wyndham Clark; 4) Matt Kuchar; 5) Daniel Berger; 6) Denny McCarthy; 7) D.J. Trahan; 8) Kevin Tway; 9) Justin Rose; 10) Kevin Kisner / Cameron Percy; 12) Jonathan Byrd / Brian Harman / Satoshi Kodaira; 15) Patrick Cantlay / Charl Schwartzel; 17) Andrew Putnam; 18) Min Woo Lee; 19) Brian Gay; 20) Keith Mitchell; 21) Kelly Kraft / Bo Van Pelt; 23) Stewart Cink / Sung Kang / Maverick McNealy / J.J. Spaun.
  • Top 25 SG Total: 1) Matt Fitzpatrick; 2) Daniel Berger; 3) Satoshi Kodaira; 4) Min Woo Lee; 5) Ryan Palmer; 6) Denny McCarthy; 7) Maverick McNealy; 8) Kevin Kisner / Matt Kuchar; 10) Mackenzie Hughes; 11) D.J. Trahan; 12) Patrick Cantlay / Mito Pereira; 14) Wyndham Clark / Cameron Tringale; 16) Andrew Putnam; 17) Vaughn Taylor; 18) Keith Mitchell / Justin Rose; 20) Dean Burmester; 21) Ben Crane / Nick Taylor; 23) Greyson Sigg / J.J. Spaun; 25) Joel Dahmen / Lucas Glover.

For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at the host course since 2016 click here.

Strokes Gained Tournament Trends: Analysing the Strokes Gained final stats of the AT&T winners since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

  • 2021, Daniel Berger (-18). SG Off the Tee: 7th, SG Approach: 6th, SG Around the Green: 11th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 18th.
  • 2020, Nick Taylor (-19). SG Off the Tee: 54th, SG Approach: 13th, SG Around the Green: 13th, SG Tee to Green: 19th, SG Putting: 2nd.
  • 2019, Phil Mickelson (-19). SG Off the Tee: 26th, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 30th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 20th.
  • 2018, Ted Potter Jnr (-17). SG Off the Tee: 15th, SG Approach: 19th, SG Around the Green: 25th, SG Tee to Green: 7th, SG Putting: 24th.
  • 2017, Jordan Spieth (-19). SG Off the Tee: 45th, SG Approach: 12th, SG Around the Green: 33rd, SG Tee to Green: 22nd, SG Putting: 4th.
  • 2016, Vaughn Taylor (-17). SG Off the Tee: 40th, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 30th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 52nd.

Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:

  • SG Off the Tee: 32nd, SG Approach: 9th, SG Around the Green: 24th, SG Tee to Green: 9th, SG Putting: 20th.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winners of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am winners since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this classical test:

  • 2021, Daniel Berger (-18). 300 yards (8th), 71.4% fairways (32nd), 77.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 26’2″ proximity to hole (2nd), 87.5 % scrambling (1st), 1.73 putts per GIR (29th).
  • 2020, Nick Taylor (-19). 292 yards (39th), 78.2% fairways (4th), 75.0% greens in regulation (3rd), 34’9″ proximity to hole (31st), 61.1 % scrambling (30th), 1.59 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2019,  Phil Mickelson (-19). 276 yards (25th), 60.0% fairways (48th), 79.2% greens in regulation (8th), 29’6″ proximity to hole (6th), 53.3 % scrambling (51st), 1.65 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2018, Ted Potter Jnr (-17). 283 yards (67th), 76.4% fairways (19th), 73.6% greens in regulation (9th), 26’1″ proximity to hole (2nd), 68.4 % scrambling (19th), 1.64 putts per GIR (4th).
  • 2017, Jordan Spieth (-19). 284 yards (26th), 78.2% fairways (14th), 79.2% greens in regulation (3rd), 27’11” proximity to hole (10th), 73.3 % scrambling (8th), 1.67 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2016, Vaughn Taylor (-17). 289 yards (40th), 69.1% fairways (38th), 75.0% greens in regulation (2nd), 25’3″ proximity to hole (3rd), 55.6 % scrambling (60th), 1.56 putts per GIR (3rd).
  • 2015, Brandt Snedeker (-22). 284 yards (48th), 70.9% fairways (38th), 81.9% greens in regulation (3rd), 27’11” proximity to hole (24th), 92.3 % scrambling (1st), 1.68 putts per GIR (16th).
  • 2014, Jimmy Walker (-11). 282 yards (22nd), 56.4% fairways (59th), 70.8% greens in regulation (6th), 35’6″ proximity to hole (26th), 81.0 % scrambling (2nd), 1.75 putts per GIR (14th).
  • 2013, Brandt Snedeker (-19). 277 yards (41st), 78.2% fairways (14th), 77.8% greens in regulation (6th), 27’10” proximity to hole (19th), 75.0% scrambling (6th), 1.64 putts per GIR (6th).
  • 2012, Phil Mickelson (-17). 273 yards (58th), 61.8% fairways (62nd), 75.0% greens in regulation (5th), 29’1″ proximity to hole (11th), 77.8% scrambling (2nd), 1.67 putts per GIR (10th).
  • 2011, D.A. Points (-15). 286 yards (40th), 80.4% fairways (9th), 69.4% greens in regulation (19th), 30’11” proximity to hole (15th), 50.0% scrambling (47th), 1.60 putts per GIR (1st).
  • 2010, Dustin Johnson (-16). 303 yards (1st), 75.0% fairways (15th), 80.6% greens in regulation (3rd), N/A proximity to hole, 35.7% scrambling (64th), 1.65 putts per GIR (7th).

Traditional Skill Set Averages:

  • Driving Distance: 35th, Driving Accuracy: 29th, Greens in Regulation: 6th, Proximity to Hole: 14th, Scrambling: 24th, Putting Average 8th.

So let’s take a view from players as to how the 3 courses and tournament format affects play:

Daniel Berger [on Spyglass]: “Yeah, I think this is the harder golf course for me so just to shoot 5-under here is a good round and anything under par here is a good round. Tomorrow if the wind blows it’s going to be much tougher here so I prefer to play over there at Pebble. But I’m in a good position. So I hit a lot of good shots today and putted really well and much improved from last week. It’s receptive here, it’s receptive there (Pebble Beach), but like I was saying, if the wind picks up tomorrow, it’s going to be much tougher here hitting shots through the trees and trying to figure out where the wind is. So I’m in a great position.”

Daniel Berger [on Pebble Beach]: “For someone that cuts the ball like myself, 18 tee actually, I feel like it’s a relatively easy tee shot because you can start it down the left in the water and you just cut it off the water. Yesterday I just kind of flared it. Today I stepped up there, and I wanted to be as aggressive as possible and I would rather go down swinging than making a conservative swing that doesn’t end up really well. Then the 3-wood was, like I was saying earlier, one of the best 3-woods in my life. I’ve always struggled with finding a good 3-wood. It’s either good off the tee or good off the deck, but this one I’ve really been comfortable with for a long time. I just try to be aggressive. I wanted to win the golf tournament. I didn’t want to lose it on the last. I just wanted to go out there and try to hit the best shot that I could and I wasn’t going to be conservative on the 3-wood coming in.”

“Yeah, you know, I think I’ve played it three times and I’ve had a 10th, a 5th, and now a victory. But I love Pebble Beach. Every time I’ve ever played it I wonder why I don’t come back more often, and this year was, I knew I was going to play it. I set it on my schedule early. I didn’t commit until kind of late, but I knew I was going to be here. It’s just a special place. Every time you step up to the tee, you just, you tend to take in the sights and sounds and don’t really focus on the golf as much and I think that’s kind of helpful for me.”

Nick Taylor [on Spyglass]: That’s the No. 1 thought on the range in the morning, the first ball, don’t thin it. But yeah, I had the cart gloves on, I had a beanie on this morning just trying to keep your hands warm as well as possible. The ball’s going much shorter which you have to factor in. They added a few tees on the par-5s out at Spyglass, so for me they’re borderline reachable, which kind of I feel a strength of my game is driving it straight and my woods into the green. So when I can’t really reach those it took away maybe a couple opportunities there. But it was cold, once the fog kind of went away a little bit, or the overcast, it warmed up a little bit, which was nice, but it was definitely cold this morning. I definitely putted well this week, which I think if you talk to anybody who has had average weeks then all of a sudden in contention to win, that’s usually a big reason. I’ve been driving it well for a long time. And this course being a hair shorter, I think it just suits my game a little bit better. I’m definitely not bomber but just putt well.”

Phil Mickelson [on Pebble]: “Yeah, I actually thought it was a successful round. It was difficult out there, especially around the turn there, 9, 10 — 8, 9, 10, and that was really the only point where I had a couple of bogeys and it was very difficult, but I was able to come back with a few birdies when it cleared up. And I thought anything in the 60s was going to be a heck of a round, and I was one shy. I just enjoy it here and I think the challenging conditions oftentimes comes into play. I think the grass and the little half shots to get back to some of these pins, a lot of guys struggle with and it’s been a strength of my game, so I’ve been able to make a few more birdies on some of these holes.”

Ted Potter Jnr [on Pebble]: “I was just trying to take one shot at a time, pick a small target on the fairway, pick a small target on the middle of the green. I knew I had a couple shot lead going into the back nine, so I knew that they were going to have to make some birdies and the back nine’s tough, especially with the wind how it is right now. So I just wanted to give myself plenty of opportunities coming in. I just tried not to attack the pins, but give myself good 20-footers to have a chance to make birdie.

Jordan Spieth [on Pebble]: “Yeah, on this type of poa annua, it’s still going to be very soft and spinny. Even on this course I was hitting low 9-irons or 8-irons and they were coming backwards a few feet. Normally those skip five yards forward. So it’s very difficult to throw the ball with a lot of extra club and hit it low and land it back by the pin. It’s difficult to do because we almost never have to do it. So, very rarely do we actually practice it or can trust it in a tournament setting. Holes like number 4 today, when you’ve got to hit an 85 yard shot and you got to hit a gap wedge and fly it 85 when it’s normally just a perfect number for a 63 degree, it’s just an abnormal thing for us to do and to get our brains wrapped around. That’s going to stay that way. The course isn’t going to change much tomorrow, in my opinion. It’s just not getting hot enough, it’s still too early. But, yeah, so it will be kind of dart throwing contest again and who can make the putts. And Sneds has won here I think twice and I think we’re playing with him. He’s going to be somebody who can very easily, I mean, I say very easily, but he’s somebody who can go out there and shoot 7-, 8-under tomorrow. So, I’ve got to set a goal and stay real patient, try not to make many mistakes, hit a lot of greens in regulation.

Justin Rose [on Spyglass]: “That was actually my first look at Spyglass. I came out here the other day and went around a couple of holes checking it out, but I picked the wrong one not to play, because it’s a pretty tough course. There’s some strong holes on it. And I heard some strange reports about Spyglass, like the first few holes are great then it disappears into the hills and it’s not that good. That’s not what I saw. That’s a pretty stellar golf course to me and really enjoyed playing it. All the courses in the rotation have impressed me this year.

Justin Rose [on Monterrey Peninsula]: “The greens aren’t as good here. They’re bouncing a little bit, but they’re also really quick. So kind of quick and bouncy. My last hole of the day I had a beautiful 6-iron in to about seven feet and had maybe a 6, 8 inch break in it. I knew I was trying to lag it and I missed low and suddenly had four feet coming back up the hill. So there was some very awkward putts out there today. But the putts are makeable, but also if you’re not seeing them go in early, it’s the one course that maybe gets in your head a little bit. But the greens at Spyglass and Pebble are a little firmer and they’re rolling really well. I think I need to learn Pebble a bit more, a bit better. This is the course that probably gave me more trouble than the other two. That’s why it’s a U.S. Open venue, because it’s got some subtleties to it. But I really enjoyed it. I really enjoyed the whole week, the courses are in great shape the weather was perfect.

Brandt Snedeker: “I love the greens here, I love the golf courses, the greens are poa annua, which I’m a big fan of. And I love the format. I have played the last four years with a good friend. To come out here and play these golf courses, this year, you’re not going to get a better conditioned golf course, perfect weather, everything has been ideal and there’s not a better place to be in the country right now than right here and this tournament. So I have a lot of fun when I come out here and it’s a fun feeling when you’re playing good out on the West Coast.

Jordan Spieth: “I enjoy the pro am part of it. Even though it’s a long round, we get good food, it’s a nice change of pace, good food, you’re kind of laughing down the fairways. It’s like you’re playing around on the weekend. Some guys don’t like the pace of play or a lot of guys just don’t like poa annua greens, guys that grew up on Bermuda grew up in the south or even guys that grew up in the northeast are used to primarily bent grass or Bermuda grass and they, three different golf courses all with poa annua that maybe they think putt a little different. It’s just a tough adjustment when you get in Monday night or something to try and get to know the places that week really quickly. Whether it’s that, whether it’s the changing around a few golf courses or it’s the slow rounds, not sure. I certainly really like this golf course and a lot of the legends of the game have liked these courses.

Jimmy Walker: “I don’t mind the format. The format’s great. I’ve enjoyed all my partners I’ve ever had here. I think everybody that’s here is a good person. I’ve had some good players. We have done well in the past team wise, too. So, you know the rounds are going to be a little longer. But there’s no better place to hang out on a golf course for five and a half, six hours if the weather’s good it’s really nice. If it’s bad it’s a little dicey, but I think it’s a cool format. I enjoy playing golf with friends at home and I’ve made some pretty good friends out here doing the pro am stuff. You just got to get over the fact that it’s going to take awhile. A lot of guys don’t like it.

Path to Victory: Below are the end-of-round positions for the last 12 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am winners:

  • 2021 – Daniel Berger: Round 1: 11th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 2nd.
  • 2020 – Nick Taylor: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2019 – Phil Mickelson: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 2nd.
  • 2018 – Ted Potter Jnr: Round 1: 24th, Round 2: 35th, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2017 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2016 – Vaughn Taylor: Round 1: 48th, Round 2: 18th, Round 3: 8th.
  • 2015 – Brandt Snedeker: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 2nd.
  • 2014 – Jimmy Walker: Round 1: 6th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2013 – Brandt Snedeker: Round 1: 5th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2012 – Phil Mickelson: Round 1: 59th, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 4th.
  • 2011 – D.A. Points: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 4th.
  • 2010 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: 1st, Round 2 1st, Round 3: 1st.

Shots From the Lead: Below are the last 12 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am winners and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:

  • 2021 – Daniel Berger: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 2 back.
  • 2020 – Nick Taylor: Round 1: 2 ahead, Round 2: 2 ahead, Round 3: 1 ahead.
  • 2019 – Phil Mickelson: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: Level, Round 3: 3 back.
  • 2018 – Ted Potter Jnr: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 8 back, Round 3: Level.
  • 2017 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: Level, Round 2: Level, Round 3: 6 ahead.
  • 2016 – Vaughn Taylor: Round 1: 7 back, Round 2: 6 back, Round 3: 6 back.
  • 2015 – Brandt Snedeker: Round 1: Level, Round 2: Level, Round 3: 1 back.
  • 2014 – Jimmy Walker: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 6 ahead.
  • 2013 – Brandt Snedeker: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: Level, Round 3: Level.
  • 2012 – Phil Mickelson: Round 1: 9 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: 6 back.
  • 2011 – D.A. Points: Round 1: 1 ahead, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 2 back.
  • 2010 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: Level, Round 2: Level, Round 3: Level.

Form of AT&T winners since 2010:

  • Daniel Berger: MC TPC Scottsdale/7th Waialae/10th ToC/23rd Mayakoba.
  • Nick Taylor: 49th TPC Scottsdale/MC PGA West/32nd Waialae/MC RSM Classic.
  • Phil Mickelson: MC TPC Scottsdale/2nd PGA West/17th Silverado/30th Tour Champ.
  • Ted Potter Jnr: 73rd Torrey/MC PGA West/MC Waialae/13th RSM Classic.
  • Jordan Spieth: 9th TPC Scottsdale/3rd Waialae/3rd Kapalua/3rd World Challenge.
  • Vaughn Taylor: MC Columbia/MC Sea Island/20th Sanderson/24th web.com TC.
  • Brandt Snedeker: 19th Torrey/10th TPC Scottsdale/MC PGA West/10th HSBC.
  • Jimmy Walker: MC Torrey/1st Waialae/21st Kapalua/46th HSBC.
  • Brandt Snedeker: 2nd TPC Scottsdale/2nd Torrey/23rd PGA West/3rd Kapalua.
  • Phil Mickelson: 26th TPC Scottsdale/MC Torrey/49th PGA West.
  • D.A. Points: 22nd TPC Scottsdale/8th Torrey/42nd PGA West.
  • Dustin Johnson: 3rd Riviera/MC Torrey/16th Waialae/16th Kapalua.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Poa Annua and Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

  • 4 – Jason Day, Brandt Snedeker.
  • 3 – Jordan Spieth, Jimmy Walker.
  • 2 – Scott Piercy, Nick Watney.
  • 1 – Aaron Baddeley, Sang-moon Bae, Jonas Blixt, Daniel Berger, Patrick Cantlay, Cameron Champ, Stewart Cink, Bill Haas, James Hahn, Russell Knox, Matt Kuchar, Nate Lashley, Sean O’Hair, D.A. Points, Ted Potter Jnr, Andrew Putnam, Chez Reavie, Justin Rose, Scott Stallings, Chris Stroud, Nick Taylor, Vaughn Taylor, Kevin Tway, Bo Van Pelt, Richy Werenski.

The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is always a memorable tournament, although the coverage can be extremely painful to watch. Recent winners include Tiger Woods, Davis Love III (x2), Vijay Singh, Phil Mickelson (x5), Dustin Johnson (x2), Jimmy Walker, Brandt Snedeker (x2), Jordan Spieth and Daniel Berger with Matt Gogel, Aaron Oberholser, Steve Lowery, D.A. Points, Vaughn Taylor, Ted Potter Jnr and Nick Taylor thrown in for good measure.

My take on the tournament is that a number of elite players always seem to contend – as you’d expect – and in most cases quality vanquishes the lesser opposition, but in the case of Lowery, Points, Taylor (of the Vaughn variety), Potter Jnr, and Taylor (of the Nick variety), they defeated Vijay Singh, Hunter Mahan, Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson respectively to capture their career biggest tournament titles.

Experience at Pebble Beach is another key factor. Dustin Johnson’s win here in 2009 came on only his second appearance at the tournament, but his liking for the format was already plain to see as he’d finished 7th on debut the previous year. Johnson went on to defend his title in 2010 and since then players with 4, 16, 6, 6, 7, 8, 4, 3, 21, 5 and 2 previous appearances have triumphed.

The specialist nature of golf here can be seen in the fact that every winner here since Aaron Oberholser (2006) had delivered a top-21 finish at Pebble prior to their victory. That link continued again with 18/1 chance Daniel Berger 12 months ago, who in his 2 AT&T visits had finished 10th and 5th prior to capturing his 4th PGA Tour title. A close association with Torrey Pines can’t be overlooked either, although it is not essential, or the liking for the west coast swing in general.

Taking that last statement a step further, going back to Dustin Johnson the 2009 and 2010 champion, he’d already finished 10th at Waialae, 12th at PGA West and 7th at Pebble Beach in his rookie season of 2008 before triumphing here in consecutive years. The 2010 victory came off a 3rd at Riviera. D.A. Points had a liking for Torrey Pines with 2 top-9 finishes and an 8th in San Diego prior to winning this. Phil Mickelson in 2012 had won 17 times on the west coast including 3 Pebble National titles. Brandt Snedeker had won at Torrey Pines and had a number of high West Coast finishes across Kapalua, PGA West, TPC Scottsdale and a top 10 in the U.S. Open here, whilst Jordan Spieth had won at Kapalua and had finished 4th and 7th here prior to his 2017 victory. Even Vaughn Taylor had captured both of his 2 PGA Tour titles at Montreux in Nevada and had a strong profile of finishes across Kapalua, PGA West, TPC Scottsdale and a top 10 here at Pebble Beach, although anyone picking him out to win this at 300/1 hopefully bought a lottery ticket the same week!

Ted Potter Jnr takes this to even more extremes, but look at his history and there are some west coast positive results hidden away. 13th at Waialae (2012), 16th at Pebble Beach and 10th at Riviera (both in 2013). Nick Taylor was similar to Potter but had finished 10th here at Pebble (2017) and 9th (2017) at Silverado. Finally Daniel Berger had those 2 top 10 finishes here at Pebble Beach plus 10th at Kapalua, 7th at Waialae plus 3 top 10 finishes at TPC Scottsdale.

My selections are as follows:

Justin Rose 2pts EW 28/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill

Justin Rose impressed me last week at Torrey Pines and the World Number 39 is undoubtedly gaining some momentum.

10th at the Wyndham Championship, 6th at the BMW PGA Championship, 12th at the RSM Classic and last week’s 6th at the Farmers Insurance Open highlight an elite player who is using this spell of non-Majors to rebuild a career which had been on a downturn.

His win at the 2019 Farmers Insurance Open was when he was still World Number 1, and that was undoubtedly his peak with Honma clubs. From there a lack of confidence and various toying with equipment has led to a 3-year winless period, but I think Pebble Beach this week is a great spot to get back into victory lane, on a classical format the 41 year-old thrives on.

Wanting to focus on the FedEx Cup and avoid a 3rd straight disappointing PGA Tour campaign, Justin arrives in Carmel this week with some sneaky Pebble form. 3 career appearances here have generated 6th at the AT&T in 2016, plus 3rd at the U.S. Open in 2019. He putted positively on the Poa Annua greens here both times and naturally is a Torrey Pines champion, so I have no qualms about the putting surfaces. In all he has played 8 competitive rounds at the AT&T so vitally has experience of both the Pro-Am format and all 3 courses played this week.

And encouragingly for me, Rose’s ‘bread and butter’ in terms of his ball-striking is returning. 2nd (RSM), 18th (Amex) and 14th (Farmers) in that particular category over his last 3 appearances, he’s also been in the top 14 for Total Accuracy. 5th for Strokes Gained Approach at Torrey Pines last week was his best on the PGA Tour for 18 months and encouragingly he ranks 9th for Strokes Gained Putting across my 8-week tracker. RESULT: 62nd

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Maverick McNealy 2pts EW 28/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill

It would be easy to turn a cheek with Maverick McNealy this week with odds that place him in the top 6 or 7 in the market. Justifying that price is tough, but the layers clearly know that any bigger price will lead to a betting frenzy on a player who lives on the course and plays this AT&T rota so well. 5th (2020) and 2nd (2021) across the past 2 renewals, his 69.45 AT&T average score per round is only beaten by Daniel Berger, Jason Day and Jordan Spieth. Not too shabby!

A look at McNealy’s PGA Tour best finishes highlights a player who is very, very specialised. 2nd at Silverado Country Club (2021) when we were on board at 50/1;  the aforementioned 2 top-5’s here at Pebble Beach (course rota of 1 Par 71 and 2 Par 72s at circa 7,000 yards), 8th (2020) at Detroit Golf Club (Par 72 at 7,320 yards), 7th (2020) at Old Greenwood (Par 71 that plays at around 6,500 yards due to altitude) and 4th (2021) at Harbour Town (Par 71 7,121 yards). 11th (2020) at PGA National and 12th (2020) at El Camaleon also came on a Par 70 at 7,125 yards and a Par 71 at 7,017 yards. So it’s short formats all the way for Maverick.

Not only does McNealy thrive on short courses with small greens, but he’s undoubtedly Poa Annua-positive. He also tends to save his very best performances for his home Golden State. Indeed 5 of McNealy’s last 7 top 10 finishes have come in California. including 3rd at the 2019 Ellie Mae Classic on the Korn Ferry Tour.

2022 has seen him finish 27th at Waialae on course debut, where he ranked 1st for Strokes Gained Off the Tee, 1st for Total Driving and 7th for Ball Striking. Whilst last week at Torrey Pines saw him make a Hole in One on Friday, where he found himself 8th after 54 holes. He eventually finished 30th after a tough final round, but I can see Maverick being in the hunt for his maiden PGA Tour victory this week, on 3 sub-7,000 yard golf courses, which feature small greens and Poa Annua putting surfaces. RESULT: T33

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Kevin Kisner 1.5pts EW 50/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Paddy Power

I’m also thinking that Kevin Kisner, who is on a real streak at the moment, could surprise. Now naturally Poa Annua is not his preferred putting surface, but KK has the required top-10 finish here at the AT&T Pro-Am that most champions gain, prior to actually winning here. 3rd for Strokes Gained Approach and 8th for Tee to Green, the putter let him down that particular week. But over time he seems to be improving on the greens gaining 1.7 strokes and 1 stroke with the putter across the 2019 and 2020 renewals, when finishing 28th and 38th. 2019 was interesting in the fact that he was 8th going into the weekend.

Undoubtedly experience of the 3-course rota helps here, and there are no doubts that Kevin has masses of correlating course form around the likes of Waialae Country Club, Colonial Country Club, Old White TPC, Sedgefield Country Club, and TPC Boston. Kisner has also delivered some top results on Bent Poa Annua mix greens such as 3rd (2020) and 8th (2021) at Detroit Country Club, 5th at TPC River Highlands (2021) and 6th at Muirfield Village (2017). So putting a line through his name on the basis he can only perform on Bermudagrass would be churlish.

8th (Kapalua) and 3rd (Waialae) on his last 2 starts, Kevin has always been one to follow when hot and also by the coast. He also ranks 6th on this week’s Publish Predictor Model that I pulled together, which made me raise an eyebrow. Across my 8-week Strokes Gained trackers in this field he also has ranks of 9th (Tee to Green), 10th (Putting) and 8th for Strokes Gained Current Form. RESULT: MC

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Matt Jones 1pt EW 50/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Paddy Power

Matt Jones on the quiet is a bit of an AT&T Pebble specialist. 10th (2010), 15th (2011), 7th (2015), 11th (2016) and 5th (2020) from 14 appearances, the 41 year-old has grossed $1.06 million here – his 3rd highest grossing tournament, behind the Honda Classic and the Houston Open – both of which he has won.

Highly inconsistent, Matt arrives here off of 2 straight missed cuts, nothing surprising there! But prior to that he was 3rd behind Cameron Smith and Jon Rahm at the winners-only Sentry Tournament of Champions, where he shot an incredible -32/260, set on the Pacific coastline. Strokes Gained-wise he ranked 4th for Off the Tee, 4th for Tee to Green and 2nd for Putting, and was also 8th for Greens in Regulation.

This tournament is littered with winners who come from left-field, so I’m not too bothered about his apparent lack of form arriving in Carmel as it gives us a better price. But one thing I do know is that a short, coastal, classical set-up, with a little firmness and wind thrown into the mix, should be right up the World Number 74’s street. RESULT: MC

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Lucas Glover 1pt EW at 66/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Paddy Power

Lucas Glover is another I like from lower down the market. The 2009 U.S. Open winner, Glover landed the John Deere Classic last season amongst 3 other top-8 finishes across the Mayakoba Golf Classic (5th), Valero Texas Open (4th), and the Charles Schwab Challenge (8th), and after a quiet start to his 2022 campaign at Kapalua, Lucas has played very well in January. 5th on his first visit to the Sony Open since 2016, ‘The Glove’ shot a Thursday -6/66 at The American Express and was in semi-contention throughout before a disappointing Sunday saw his finish 33rd.

1st for Greens in Regulation, 8th for Total Accuracy and 8th for Ball Striking at Waialae, Lucas was also in the top 10 again for Greens in Regulation and Total Accuracy at PGA West. In effect he’s plotting nicely – 2nd for Strokes Gained Tee to Green highlights that just as nicely. Indeed he ranks 5th for Strokes Gained on Approach across my 8-week trackers.

A winner of the John Deere Classic should logically enjoy the Pebble Beach Pro-Am test. Jordan Spieth is a 3-time winner across TPC Deere Run and here. Reigning champion Daniel Berger has finished 5th (2017) at the John Deere and 2-time AT&T winner Brandt Snedeker has also finished runner-up in Silvis, Illinois. And Glover has finished 11th (2016) and 7th (2019) in his last 3 visits to the AT&T. Of regular visitors he also ranks 3rd for Strokes Gained Putting and 8th for Strokes Gained Total around Pebble Beach since 2016. RESULT: MC

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 17:40GMT 31.1.22 but naturally subject to fluctuation.