BMW Championship Tips 2022

It was nice to land Will Zalatoris at the FedEx St Jude Championship last week at 28/1 with bet365. It was definitely a golf betting community win! Earlier this season I was also on-board Scottie Scheffler when he landed his first PGA Tour victory at 30/1 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, and personally I like being involved in a career milestone.

We move onto the 2nd leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs this week, with the top 70 in the standings making their way to the Mid-Atlantic state of Delaware. Both Cameron Smith and Tommy Fleetwood are non-starters, leaving as you would expect a star-studded line-up of 68 players.

The Western Golf Association organises the BMW Championship, a tournament that traditionally tours a number of the Mid-West’s very best golf courses. 2022 sees a new departure as the BMW Championship is played in Delaware for the first time at a course we have not seen. Wilmington Country Club hosts its first PGA Tour event.

Punters this week should also look closely at the each-way terms which are being made available across this 69 man short field, with a huge 8 places each-way at 1/5 odds available, with select bookmakers.

 BMW Championship – Featured Bookmaker:

Boylesports are leading the way for this week’s BMW Championship in Delaware, and across PGA Tour in general, offering a record 8 places each-way at 1/5 odds, across this short-field tournament. They are now a must have for golf punters who want maximum each-way return opportunities. If you haven’t already got a Boylesports account then new customers, both sides of the Irish Sea, can access their specific new customer offer using the links below:

Get up to 12 places each way with bet365’s ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion on golf.

bet365 have recently launched their innovative ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion on golf, following on from its success on horse racing over the past few years.

• bet365 Golf Each Way Extra – Up to 12 places for Each Way Golf bets on selected tournaments. Each Way Extra gives you the option to increase or decrease the number of places when you are betting pre-event on the To Win Outright market on selected Golf events – add places on to your Each Way Golf bets for extra security at lower odds, or increase the price by removing places. Bet restrictions apply. For further details of how Each Way Extra works on golf click here.

The number of Each Way Extra places offered on an event can be viewed on the Each Way Extra coupon or on the bet slip as per the example below:

Odds above used for illustrative purposes and were correct at 11:45BST 15.8.22, but are naturally subject to fluctuation.

To access the different options and odds, simply select the ‘Each Way Extra’ market from the selected golf coupon to see the additional place terms that are available on your chosen event before the first group tees off. Once you’ve selected a price and the corresponding number of places from the Each Way Extra coupon, it will then appear on your bet slip.

If you don’t have a bet365 sports account then customers who sign up with bet365 via Golf Betting System receive their up to £50 in free bets account opening offer using bonus code SPORT50:

Before we go into the detail surrounding the BMW Championship, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,100 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

Course Guide: As is the want of the Western Golf Association who organise the BMW Championship, we have visited a different golf course since the tournament moved away from Cog Hill in 2011. Again we visit a completely new venue on the PGA Tour this week – the South Course at Wilmington Country Club in Delaware. It’s a Robert Trent Jones Senior original which has never hosted a main professional Tour event.

Naturally this course is ranked by Golf Digest as the number 1 course in Delaware and as one of the top courses in the Baltimore / Delaware area. Although it has never hosted a professional event, it has hosted prestigious amateur events including the 1965 and 1978 U.S. Junior Amateur, the 1971 U.S. Amateur, the 1978 U.S. Girls’ Junior Amateur and the 2003 U.S. Mid-Amateur. Of slightly more relevance it also hosted the 2013 Walker Cup, where Justin Thomas earned 3.5 points from 4 matches played, in a Team USA landslide over Andrew Coltarts’ Team Europe.

Wilmington Country Club – South Course, Wilmington, Delaware: Designer: Robert Trent Jones Senior 1959, with Andrew Green renovation 2021; Course Type: Resort, Parkland; Par: 71; Length: 7,534 yards; Number of Holes with Water In-play: 4; Fairways: 007 Bentgrass; Rough: Tall Fescue with Bluegrass 4″; Greens: 8,100 sq.ft average featuring Tyee Bentgrass;  Stimpmeter: 12.5ft.

Course Overview: We move 1,000 miles north-east from Tennessee to Delaware for the 2nd leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Located in the Mid-Atlantic, Wilmington is located in the state of Delaware, although the nearest city of note is Philadelphia which is 30 miles away. A significant jump up-country leads to a change in agronomy this week. TPC Southwind had Zoysiagrass fairways, Bermudagrass rough and Champion Bermudagrass greens. This week the South Course at Wilmington Country Club sees a move to Bentgrass fairways, Fescue and Bluegrass rough, with greens featuring a Tyee Bentgrass carpet.

The course was originally designed by Robert Trent Jones in the 1950s but has seen numerous changes since then, especially post-2020. Just a few months after Wilmington CC was asked to host the 2022 BMW Championship, March 2020 saw a tornado destroy several century-old trees on the course, among other damage. Golf course architect Andrew Green took on the task of mending the damage and updating the South Course ahead of the 2022 BMW.

Comparing Wilmington to Caves Valley which hosted last year’s BMW Championship I can some variances, but visually the 2 courses feel very similar. We are dealing with a Par 71 this year as opposed to a Par 72 last year, where all of the 4 par-5s at Caves Valley were sub-600 yards in length. Wilmington carries a couple of long par-5s which measure 634 (12th) and 649 (14th) yards. Conversely it’s rare that you see 5 par-4s at sub 430 yards on the PGA Tour, but here at Wilmington the 4th (413 yards), 6th (391 yards), 11th (430 yards), 16th (393 yards) and the 17th (419 yards) all look vulnerable, especially if tees are moved up.

Other things to note are that only 4 holes have water in-play and that the green complexes here are truly massive. At 8,100 sq.ft. on average, these Bentgrass greens are comparable with the biggest we see each year at the Plantation Course at Kapalua (Sentry Tournament of Champions).

It’s a guessing game as to just how difficult Wilmington Country Club will play, but the Western Golf Association have allowed their tournaments to be won at -22, -23, -23, -20, -25 and -27 across 6 of the last 7 BMW renewals. Personally I’d expect more of the same this week in Delaware, unless the weather intervenes.

BMW Championship Winners: 2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27); 2020: Jon Rahm (-4); 2019: Justin Thomas (-25); 2018: Keegan Bradley(-20); 2017: Marc Leishman (-23); 2016: Dustin Johnson (-23); 2015: Jason Day (-22); 2014: Billy Horschel (-15); 2013: Zach Johnson (-16); 2012: Rory McIlroy (-20); 2011: Justin Rose (-13); 2010: Dustin Johnson (-9).

OWGR of BMW Championship Winners: 2021: Cantlay 10; 2020: Rahm 2; 2019: Thomas 10; 2018: Bradley 66; 2017: Leishman 23.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland, Sam Burns and Will Zalatoris.

BMW Championship Winning Prices: 2021: Cantlay 25/1; 2020: Jon Rahm 10/1; 2019: Justin Thomas 16/1; 2018: Keegan Bradley 140/1; 2017: Marc Leishman 45/1; 2016: D Johnson 10/1; 2015: Day 15/2; 2014: Horschel 66/1; 2013: Z Johnson 40/1; 2012: McIlroy 7/1; 2011: Rose 66/1; 2010: D Johnson 33/1. Past 8 Renewals Average: 40/1; Overall Average: 39/1.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Wilmington Country Club, Delaware, is here.

A move from Tennessee to Delaware for this week’s FedEx Cup Playoff action, but conditions look pretty similar. Temperatures will be slightly down, but players will still be dealing with between 29 and 31 degrees Celsius across the tournament. Expect watered greens, especially as the Western Golf Association have a liking for birdies.

57mm (2.25 inches) of rain has fallen in this area in August, with over half of that last week. Rain was also +90% likely on Monday, so we may get some cut in the fairways on Thursday. There could also be more rain over the weekend. Across the tournament forecast wind is sub 10-12mph, so ultimately expect late teens or potentially lower to be required to win this.

Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Travelers Championship / BMW International Open, which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Taylor Pendrith; 2) Sungjae Im; 3) Wyndham Clark / Jon Rahm; 5) Scottie Scheffler; 6) Matt Fitzpatrick; 7) Corey Conners / Tony Finau / Cameron Young; 10) Max Homa; 11) Cam Davis / Aaron Wise; 13) Luke List / Taylor Moore; 15) Brendan Steele; 16) Davis Riley / Xander Schauffele; 18) Joohyung Kim / Joaquin Niemann; 20) Emiliano Grillo / Adam Scott; 22) Will Zalatoris; 23) Keith Mitchell; 24) Troy Merritt; 25) Russell Henley.
• Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Tony Finau; 2) Joohyung Kim; 3) Russell Henley; 4) Chez Reavie / Will Zalatoris; 6) Viktor Hovland / Rory McIlroy / Scott Stallings; 9) Shane Lowry; 10) Brendan Steele; 11) Cam Davis / Xander Schauffele; 13) Collin Morikawa; 14) Emiliano Grillo / Joaquin Niemann / J.T. Poston; 17) Matt Kuchar; 18) Patrick Cantlay / Cameron Tringale; 20) Alex Smalley; 21) Sam Burns / Taylor Pendrith / Scottie Scheffler; 24) Trey Mullinax; 25) Tyrrell Hatton / Harold Varner III.
• Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Patrick Cantlay; 2) Andrew Putnam; 3) Matt Fitzpatrick; 4) Max Homa / Kurt Kitayama; 6) Tony Finau / Scott Stallings; 8) Kevin Kisner / Adam Scott; 10) Si Woo Kim; 11) Wyndham Clark; 12) Sahith Theegala; 13) Mackenzie Hughes; 14) Russell Henley / J.T. Poston; 16) Brian Harman / Xander Schauffele; 18) Shane Lowry; 19) Taylor Moore; 20) Cameron Young; 21) 21) Rory McIlroy; 22) Keegan Bradley; 23) Jon Rahm; 24) Tyrrell Hatton / Billy Horschel.
• Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Tony Finau; 2) Matt Fitzpatrick; 3) Will Zalatoris; 4) Joohyung Kim / Taylor Pendrith; 6) Russell Henley / Scott Stallings; 8) Cam Davis; 9) Rory McIlroy / Scottie Scheffler; 11) Viktor Hovland / Xander Schauffele; 13) Jon Rahm; 14) Sungjae Im; 15) Patrick Cantlay / Chez Reavie; 17) Brendan Steele; 18) Wyndham Clark / Andrew Putnam; 20) Joaquin Niemann; 21) Taylor Moore; 22) Aaron Wise; 23) Cameron Young; 24) J.T. Poston; 25) Shane Lowry.
• Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Patrick Cantlay; 2) J.T. Poston / Xander Schauffele; 4) Matt Fitzpatrick; 5) Alex Noren; 6) K.H. Lee; 7) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 8) Tony Finau; 9) Denny McCarthy / Maverick McNealy; 11) Emiliano Grillo; 12) Taylor Moore; 13) Kevin Kisner; 14) Andrew Putnam; 15) Tyrrell Hatton / Rory McIlroy; 17) Joohyung Kim; 18) Max Homa; 19) Collin Morikawa; 20) Scott Stallings; 21) Sam Burns 22) Lucas Herbert; 23) Billy Horschel; 24) Keith Mitchell; 25) Trey Mullinax.
• Top 25 SG Total: 1) Tony Finau; 2) Matt Fitzpatrick; 3) Joohyung Kim; 4) Patrick Cantlay; 5) Xander Schauffele / Scott Stallings; 7) J.T Poston; 8) Cam Davis; 9) Rory McIlroy / Andrew Putnam; 11) Taylor Moore; 12) Will Zalatoris; 13) Jon Rahm; 14) Russell Henley; 15) Tyrrell Hatton; 16) Wyndham Clark / Taylor Pendrith; 18) Sahith Theegala; 19) Max Homa; 20) Keith Mitchell; 21) Corey Conners / Billy Horschel; 23) Scottie Scheffler; 24) Viktor Hovland / Aaron Wise.

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the last 12 BMW winners of this event:

• 2021 – Patrick Cantlay: Round 1: 5th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2020 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: 51st, Round 2: 39th, Round 3: 6th.
• 2019 – Justin Thomas: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 1st.
• 2018 – Keegan Bradley: Round 1: 12th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 6th.
• 2017 – Marc Leishman: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2016 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2015 – Jason Day: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2014 – Billy Horschel: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 3rd.
• 2013 – Zach Johnson: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 4th.
• 2012 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 3rd.
• 2011 – Justin Rose: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2010 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: 6th, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 2nd.

Shots From the Lead: Below are the last 12 BMW winners and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:

• 2021 – Patrick Cantlay: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: level.
• 2020 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: 8 back, Round 2: 7 back, Round 3: 3 back.
• 2019 – Justin Thomas: Round 1: level, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 6 ahead.
• 2018 – Keegan Bradley: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 3 back.
• 2017 – Marc Leishman: Round 1: 2 ahead, Round 2: 3 ahead, Round 3: 5 ahead.
• 2016 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: 3 ahead.
• 2015 – Jason Day: Round 1: 4 ahead, Round 2: 5 ahead, Round 3: 6 ahead.
• 2014 – Billy Horschel: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 3 ahead.
• 2013 – Zach Johnson: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 3 back.
• 2012 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: level, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 1 back.
• 2011 – Justin Rose: Round 1: 2 ahead, Round 2: level, Round 3: 4 ahead.
• 2010 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 1 back.

Incoming form of BMW Championship winners since 2010:

• Patrick Cantlay: 11th Northern Trust/23rd St Jude/MC Open/13th Travelers.
• Jon Rahm: 6th Northern Trust/13th PGA/52nd St Jude/1st Memorial.
• Justin Thomas: 12th Northern Trust/12th St Jude/11th Open/9th Scottish Open.
• Keegan Bradley: 49th Dell/34th Northern Trust/42nd PGA/4th Canadian Open.
• Marc Leishman: 3rd Dell Tech/MC Northern Trust/13th PGA/41st Bridgestone.
• Dustin Johnson: 8th Deutsche/18th Barclays/MC PGA/2nd Canadian Open.
• Jason Day: 12th Deutsche/1st Barclays/1st PGA/12th Bridgestone.
• Billy Horschel: 2nd Deutsche/ MC Barclays/47th Wyndham/59th PGA.
• Zach Johnson: 27th Deutsche/5th Wyndham/8th PGA/4th Bridgestone.
• Rory McIlroy: 1st Deutsche/24th Barclays/1st PGA/5th Bridgestone.
• Justin Rose: 68th Boston/6th Barclays/MC PGA/33rd Bridgestone.
• Dustin Johnson: 57th Deutsche/9th Barclays/5th PGA/15th Bridgestone.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.

• 2021 – Burns/McIlroy/Rahm – Groups 8/9/21 -8/64 – 45/1, 33/1 & 14/1.
• 2020 – Matsuyama – Group 22 – 3/67 – 40/1.
• 2019 – Kokrak/Thomas – Group 16/Group 7 -7/65 – 55/1 & 20/1.
• 2018 – McIlroy/Woods – Group 9/Group 2 -8/62 – 22/1 & 33/1.
• 2017 – Leishman – AM -9/62 – 40/1.
• 2016 – Castro – AM -7/65.
• 2015 – Day -10/61.
• 2014 – McIlroy/Spieth/Woodland -3/67.
• 2013 – Snedeker -8/63.
• 2012 – DeLaet/McIlroy/Simpson/Van Pelt -8/64.
• 2011 – Rose -8/63.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 9 – Rory McIlroy.
• 5 – Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas.
• 4 – Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama.
• 3 – Lucas Glover, Matt Kuchar, Adam Scott.
• 2 – Keegan Bradley, Tony Finau, Brian Harman, Billy Horschel, Chris Kirk, K.H. Lee, Marc Leishman, Troy Merritt, Xander Schauffele.
• 1 – Sam Burns, Max Homa, Sungjae Im, Kevin Kisner, Trey Mullinax, Joaquin Niemann, J.T. Poston, Seamus Power, Chez Reavie, Scottie Scheffler, Scott Stallings.

The BMW Championship is the second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, and has a number of trends that are intriguing. In an event where the focus of the media and watching public is as to who will make it to the Tour Championship, recent champions are split down the middle when it comes to FEC starting position. Jon Rahm (9th in 2020), Justin Thomas (15th in 2019), Keegan Bradley (52nd in 2018), Marc Leishman (7th in 2017), Billy Horschel (20th in 2014), Zach Johnson (27th in 2013), Justin Rose (34th in 2011) and Dustin Johnson (16th in 2010) all arrived at the BMW with decent enough immediate form, however it didn’t directly translate to a top-5 FEC position.

However the other 5 BMW champions since the Playoff structure was put in place back in 2009 have all been elite, in hot form and high in the FEC standings. Tiger Woods in 2009 won his fifth title of the season at 2/1, when ranked 2nd in the FEC standings. Jason Day and Rory McIlroy were both Number 1 in the FEC standings and had won previous Playoff tournaments at The Barclays and Deutsche Bank prior to winning the BMW at 15/2 and 7/1 respectively. 2016 saw Dustin Johnson, who had previously won the U.S. Open and Bridgestone Invitational, go on to win the BMW at 10/1 when ranked 3rd in the FEC standings. Last year saw 25/1 chance Patrick Cantlay, who in the season had won the ZOZO plus The Memorial Tournament, enter the BMW ranked 4th in the FEC standings, arriving off an 11th at the Northern Trust.

Keegan Bradley broke a very strong trend 4 years ago, entering the BMW Championship with moderate direct form of 49th at the Deutsche Bank and 34th at the Northern Trust. Every other BMW winner in the Playoff era has had a top 11 finish within their past 2 Tour outings and this really highlights this comment made by Nick Watney prior to the BMW in 2013, “Out of 70 guys, there’s kind of…there’s a big gap between guys playing really well, like you said, and guys struggling.”

The latest FedEx Cup Playoffs structure now comes into its own. We have cut 55 players from the original 125 qualifiers, so the top 70 move onto the second of 3 Playoff events. Many will be motivated to ensure that they qualify for the Tour Championship next week which opens the door to invitations to the 2023 Masters, U.S. Open and Open Championship.  We had 4 players move into the top 70 last week, with 5 players, namely Brian Harman, Joohyung Kim, Kevin Kisner Sepp Straka and Sahith Theegala breaking into the top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings. Aaron Wise (31st), Seamus Power (36th), Shane Lowry (37th), Mito Pereira (41st), Adam Scott (45th), Tyrrell Hatton (50th) and Marc Leishman (68th) all have work to do this week if they want a slice of the Tour Championship action next week. Tommy Fleetwood isn’t playing due to his mother unfortunately passing.

For those higher up the rankings, things start to get serious this week. The Tour Championship sees a FedEx Cup Starting Strokes Index used, with the FedEx Cup standings leader starting the next week at -10, FEC Number 2 at -8, FEC Number 3 at -7, FEC Number 4 at -6 and Number 5 at -5. This then cascades down to those ranked 26th to 30th starting at Even. Previously at the Tour Championship, any player ranked 1-5 had the same chance of taking the overall FedEx Cup title by winning the title.

My selections are as follows

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 14:45BST 15.8.22 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.