It was great to be on Lucas Glover at 70/1 with bet365 (Monday price) at the FedEx St Jude Championship last week. The turnaround in the 43 year-old’s form has been absolutely amazing over the summer, and he’s put himself firmly in the Ryder Cup conversation now.
On to this week and the Western Golf Association organises the BMW Championship, a tournament that traditionally tours a number of the Mid-West’s very best golf courses. 2023 sees a return to the North Course at Olympia Fields in the suburbs of Chicago. A Major Championship venue – 1961 PGA Championship & 2003 U.S. Open – this course proved a stern test 3 years ago when we last saw it.
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Course Guide: Olympia Fields Country Club is steeped in tradition. It’s a classical, tree-lined golf course, which has had influence from Willie Park Jnr, initially, and a Mark A. Mungeam restoration as recently as 2014. Since 1945, the North Course has hosted the 1961 PGA Championship, 1997 Senior U.S. Open, 2003 U.S. Open, 2015 U.S Amateur, the 2017 Women’s PGA Championship and the 2020 BMW Championship. It plays this week as a long Par 70 at over 7,350 yards.
Olympia Fields Country Club, North Course, Olympia Fields, Illinois: Designer: Willie Park Jnr, 1915, with Mungeam restoration, 2014; Course Type: Up-State, Classical, Long; Par: 70; Length: 7,366 yards; Holes with Water Hazards In-Play: 3; Fairways: Bentgrass Poa Annua; Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass 4″; Greens: 6,000 sq.ft average featuring Bentgrass Poa Annua; Stimpmeter: 11.5ft.
Course Overview: The BMW Championship has a habit of visiting Major Championship golf courses. Crooked Stick, Aronimink, Medinah Number 3, and here to Olympia Fields when Jon Rahm won in 2020. Crooked Stick played to -20/268 and -23/265 when Rory McIlroy (2012) and Dustin Johnson (2016) won there. Keegan Bradley (2018) was a 140/1 shock winner at Aronimink. He won at -20/260 on a Par 70. And in 2019 on a soft throughout Medinah Number 3 layout which played to 7,600 yards, Justin Thomas destroyed it with a -25/263 total.
In general both the PGA Tour and the tournament organising Western Golf Association have the aim of making this particular tournament scoring-wise as low as possible. The only course that broke the rule was here at Olympia Fields in 2020.
The North Course at Olympia Fields is set at 7,366 yards and plays as a Par 70. That’s plenty! The course itself is a long, classical, parkland design with mid-size greens which are Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix. Player notes from both the 2003 U.S. Open won by Jim Furyk and from the 2020 BMW mention that the greens feature pretty severe contouring.
Both par-5s, the 1st (626 yards) and 15th (606 yards), are over 600 yards long, so 3-shot holes to the vast majority of this week’s 50-man field. 7 par-4s come in at +450 yards and only 2 of the 4 par-3s are real birdie opportunities, namely the 6th (187 yards) and the 13th (168 yards). The only let-up is the section 10 through the 13 which is gettable, featuring 3 sub-450 yard par-4s and the shortest par-3. Expect the bombers to be able to get their drives close to the front of the green complexes on the 11th and 12th.
For a recent scoring level reference here on the North Course, the U.S. Amateur was held here in 2015 and won by none other that Bryson DeChambeau. Within the strokeplay element of that tournament, both the North Course and South Course featured for 18 holes each. Rounds of -5/65 were possible. The 2020 BMW Championship saw thick rough and green complex speeds which Tiger Woods eloquently described thus; ” hand watering the greens trying to keep them alive and keep them right on the edge.”
That watering undoubtedly increased on Saturday and Sunday as day by day scoring averages highlight. Thursday: 72.83; Friday: 72.73; Saturday: 71.39; Sunday: 70.32. Where we will be in 2023 in terms of firmness naturally remains to be seen.
BMW Championship Winners: 2022: Patrick Cantlay (-14); 2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27); 2020: Jon Rahm (-4); 2019: Justin Thomas (-25); 2018: Keegan Bradley(-20); 2017: Marc Leishman (-23); 2016: Dustin Johnson (-23); 2015: Jason Day (-22); 2014: Billy Horschel (-15); 2013: Zach Johnson (-16); 2012: Rory McIlroy (-20); 2011: Justin Rose (-13); 2010: Dustin Johnson (-9).
OWGR of FedEx Cup Event 1 Winners: 2022: Cantlay 4; 2021: Cantlay 10; 2020: Rahm 2; 2019: Thomas 10; 2018: Bradley 66; 2017: Leishman 23.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Rory McIlroy, Max Homa, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Scottie Scheffler, Tommy Fleetwood, Collin Morikawa, J.T. Poston and Hideki Matsuyama.
BMW Championship Winning Prices: 2022: Cantlay 16/1; 2021: Cantlay 25/1; 2020: Jon Rahm 10/1; 2019: Justin Thomas 16/1; 2018: Keegan Bradley 140/1; 2017: Marc Leishman 45/1; 2016: D Johnson 10/1; 2015: Day 15/2; 2014: Horschel 66/1; 2013: Z Johnson 40/1; 2012: McIlroy 7/1; 2011: Rose 66/1; 2010: D Johnson 33/1. Past 9 Renewals Average: 37/1; Overall Average: 37/1.
Historical Weather:
2020: Thursday: Sunny. High of 92. Wind WSW 10-15 mph with gust of 20. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 91. Wind SW 10-18 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 78. Wind NW 9-17 mph. Sunday: Mixture of sun and clouds. High of 77. Wind E 6-12 mph.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Olympia Fields, Illinois, is here.
We move to the mid-west this week with a visit to Chicago, and from a weather perspective it’s more of the same with decent weather again for the BMW Championship. Temperatures ranging from 26-31 degrees Celsius will be pleasant and despite the 50% threat of thunderstorms during play on Thursday, the course should play very much as the organisers want. Gusts of up to 20 mph on Thursday subside throughout the rest of the week. It’s difficult to assess scoring level based on 2020 here alone.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the winner here at Olympia Fields in 2020 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this Par 70:
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
2020, Jon Rahm (-4). SG Off the Tee: 7th, SG Approach: 9th, SG Around the Green: 13th, SG Tee to Green: 6th, SG Putting: 6th.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final traditional stats of the winner here at Olympia Fields in 2020 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2020, Jon Rahm (-4). 331 yards (6th), 55.4% fairways (13th), 70.8% greens in regulation (2nd), 33’6″ proximity to hole (5th), 57.1 % scrambling (25th), 1.75 putts per GIR (6th).
So let’s take a view from players as to how Olympia Fields sets up and what skill sets the course favours:
Jon Rahm (2020): “It’s a really tough golf course out there. It’s really, really demanding. Even if you’re in the fairway you need to hit really, really good shots and I was able to hit more accurate iron shots out there today and have a couple tap-ins like I did on 3 and on 8, which the one on 8 I still don’t know how I hit it that close. And when you have a couple easy birdies, making a few other putts, you get things going. Like I said, that putt on 5 and that par putt on 9 gave me a lot of confidence going down the stretch, and even on the back nine, I kept hitting good shots. I kept putting it in the fairway and giving myself birdie chances. The only time I had to make up-and-down for par was on 16.”
“Are you kidding? What’s the leader, 2, 3? Yeah, four shots behind. Four shots on this golf course is nothing. Seems like the wind is picking up. The golf course is only going to get firmer. We’ve seen it every day. The first few hours you see people go under par and then slowly just come back to the field. Luckily I was able to finish it up, so hopefully I’m not too far off where I am right now. I do anticipate somebody playing good today and maybe getting to 3-, 4-under par. 5 would be a stretch, but I can see 3-, 4-under, and there will still be a lot of shots to make up, but it’s doable. I’ll need another 4-under probably tomorrow.”
Mackenzie Hughes (2020): “Yeah, pretty much a U.S. Open set-up. This is about as hard a setup as you could have. Firmness-wise it’s really difficult to hold some of those fairways that are sitting on angles, and yeah, some of those first bounces into the greens, you’re pitching it 15 yards short of the flag. Sometimes even just looking front edge for back pins. Yeah, very difficult test. You’ve really got to be coming out of the fairway to hold these greens, and if you miss greens, the up-and-downs are really difficult.”
Rory McIlroy (2020): “Yeah, so I think the two best setups this year have been the Memorial and here by far. They’ve been the two best setups of the entire year. You could maybe throw Harding Park in there, as well. But this is proper golf. This is you’ve really got to think about stuff, you’ve got to land it on your numbers, you’ve got to put it in play. Those sort of five-, six-footers for pars to sort of keep the momentum going is huge. It’s nice to play a round of golf like that again.”
Tiger Woods (2020): “There are a few holes I noticed that, in some of the conversations I’ve had with some of the guys that if you can carry the ball about 315, 320 and this golf course gets really, really opened up, but for me I can’t quite carry it that far, so it’ll be about putting the ball in play and playing from there.”
“I think this year the rough is up again. There’s six, seven inches in spots, and it’s gnarly and if we happen to get the weather we’re supposed to get Friday night and then if it gets wet, you’d better hit the ball in the fairway, but the greens right now are getting baked out, which as you know mid-90s the next couple days. They’re hand watering the greens trying to keep them alive and keep them right on the edge, right where they should be.”
Dustin Johnson (2020): “Obviously this week is going to be more of the same. The greens have a lot of slope and they’re firm, so if you can control the distance with irons, then you can give yourself a lot of good looks. That’s all I’m working on, same thing as I was working on last week.”
“Yeah, I mean, I’m going to hit a lot of different clubs off the tees here this week. I’m getting to hit quite a few drivers, but there’s a couple 3-woods, I’ve got a 7-wood that I’ll hit off a couple tees, even a couple irons. You hit a variety of shots or clubs off the tees. Most important thing is just get it in the fairway. It doesn’t really matter what you hit off the tee. You’ve just got to make sure you’re comfortable with what you’re hitting and you’re going to hit the fairway because the only way to attack this golf course is out of the fairway. The greens are firm and fast, got a lot of slope on them, so you really need to be able to control the golf ball coming into them.”
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions of BMW Championship winners since 2010:
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Poa Annua and Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
5 – Jon Rahm.
4 – Jason Day, Max Homa, Rory McIlroy.
3 – Collin Morikawa.
2 – Keegan Bradley, Justin Rose, Jordan Spieth, Nick Taylor.
1 – Patrick Cantlay, Cam Davis, Harris English, Tony Finau, Matt Fitzpatrick, Rickie Fowler, Emiliano Grillo, Tom Hoge, Andrew Putnam, Xander Schauffele.
The BMW Championship is the second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs and has a number of trends that are intriguing. In an event where the focus of the media and watching public is as to who will make it to the Tour Championship, recent champions are split down the middle when it comes to FEC starting position. Patrick Cantlay (7th in 2022), Jon Rahm (9th in 2020), Justin Thomas (15th in 2019), Keegan Bradley (52nd in 2018), Marc Leishman (7th in 2017), Billy Horschel (20th in 2014), Zach Johnson (27th in 2013), Justin Rose (34th in 2011) and Dustin Johnson (16th in 2010) all arrived at the BMW with decent enough immediate form, however it didn’t directly translate to a top 5 FEC position.
The other 5 BMW champions since the Playoff structure was put in place back in 2009 have all been elite, in hot form and high in the FEC standings. Tiger Woods in 2009 won his fifth title of the season at 2/1 when ranked 2nd in the FEC standings. Jason Day and Rory McIlroy were both Number 1 in the FEC standings and had won previous Playoff tournaments at The Barclays and Deutsche Bank prior to winning the BMW at 15/2 and 7/1 respectively. 2016 saw Dustin Johnson, who had previously won the U.S. Open and Bridgestone Invitational, go on to win the BMW at 10/1 when ranked 3rd in the FEC standings. 2021 saw 25/1 chance Patrick Cantlay, who in the season had won the ZOZO plus The Memorial Tournament, enter the BMW ranked 4th in the FEC standings, arriving off an 11th at the Northern Trust.
Keegan Bradley broke a very strong trend 5 years ago, entering the BMW Championship with moderate direct from of 49th at the Deutsche Bank and 34th at the Northern Trust. Every other BMW winner in the Playoff era has had a top 11 finish within their past 2 Tour outings and this really highlights this comment made by Nick Watney prior to the BMW in 2013, “Out of 70 guys, there’s kind of…there’s a big gap between guys playing really well, like you said, and guys struggling.”
The new FedEx Cup Playoffs structure now comes into its own. We have cut 20 players from the original 70 qualifiers, so the top 50 move onto the second of 3 Playoff events. Many will be motivated to ensure that they qualify for the Tour Championship next week which opens the door to invitations to the 2024 Masters, U.S. Open and Open Championship. We had 2 players move into the top 50 last week, with 3 players, namely Lucas Glover, Jordan Spieth and Sungjae Im, breaking into the top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings. Sahith Theegala (31st), Justin Rose (32nd), Matt Fitzpatrick (40th) Cameron Young (46th) and Hideki Matsuyama (47th) all have work to do this week if they want a slice of the Tour Championship action next week.
For those higher up the rankings, things start to get serious this week. The Tour Championship sees a FedEx Cup Starting Strokes Index used, with the FedEx Cup standings leader starting the next week at -10, FEC Number 2 at -8, FEC Number 3 at -7, FEC Number 4 at -6 and Number 5 at -5. This then cascades down to those ranked 26th to 30th starting at Even. Previously at the Tour Championship, any player ranked 1-5 had the same chance of taking the overall FedEx Cup title by winning the title.
First up this week in a short 50-man field is Rory McIlroy.
Yes the price is what it is, but of the big 4 (I’m including BMW Championship dominator and runner-up last week Patrick Cantlay), Rory gets my vote of confidence and by quite a distance, which is pretty rare for me. Scottie Scheffler’s putting woes are now the stuff of legend, Jon Rahm has the post-Masters victory hangover going on, and I never back players to 3-peat in tournaments. Apart from Steve Stricker at the John Deere Classic, in modern times – excluding Tiger of course – it just doesn’t happen.
Odds-wise, the winner of the BMW Championship averages 16/1 over the past 4 years and the 2020 BMW held here at Olympia Fields also holds some clues to the fact that we may well have a short-priced, obvious winner on our hands this week. 10/1 Jon Rahm defeated 8/1 favourite Dustin Johnson that week. DJ had won in Boston the week before. So when you look at the bigger picture, Rory ticks loads of boxes for me this week.
On the crest of a wave Tee-to-Green confidence-wise, he ranks Number 1 in my Predictor Model by a country mile. At 3rd in the FedEx Cup standings he would love to usurp both Rahm and Scheffler who sit above him and grab the -10 starting lead going into the Tour Championship at East Lake next week, a course where his record is second to none.
But to achieve that Rory will need to perform well at Olympia Fields this week at a course he described as “proper golf” back in 2020. 1st for Driving Distance, 12th for Driving Accuracy and 4th for Greens in Regulation last week at TPC Southwind, from a Strokes Gained perspective the World Number 2 ranked 2nd for Off the Tee, 4th for Approach, 3rd for Tee to Green and in the top 25 for Putting. Vintage McIlroy.
A final round 65 on Sunday at the St Jude was only beaten by playing partner Patrick Cantlay. As chances go, this week in Chicago is pretty big and could well see Rory grab his 25th PGA Tour victory – which would place his 23rd of all time level with the likes of Tommy Armour and Johnny Miller. RESULT: 4th
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Max Homa makes loads of sense this week in Chicago and played very nicely at the FedEx St Jude. 2nd for Strokes Gained Off the Tee plus 10th for Tee to Green were a couple of numbers that jumped off the page from TPC Southwind, and Homa is always dangerous when the driver is at its best on tough assignments upon which he thrives.
And that’s the point with Homa this week at the BMW Championship. He’s a classical golf course lover who’s not afraid to win on the PGA Tour. A 6-time winner now, Max has won at Quail Hollow, Torrey Pines, Riviera Country Club, TPC Potomac and Silverado Country Club (twice). All of them are old-style classical courses, with 4 of his wins coming in California, all of which came on Poa Annua or Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix putting surfaces. Greens this week are again Bent/Poa mix.
Although continually underrated, Max has also finished 10th (2019) and 7th (2021) at Pebble Beach, 5th (2020) and 10th (2022) at Riviera on top of his victory, 6th at Copperhead (2021) plus 6th (2021) and 5th (2022) at Muirfield Village, so the testing, long, tree-lined nature of Olympia Fields should fit in my opinion.
Form of 21-12-10-6 is trending in the right direction, especially as that included his first Major top 10 at The Open. He’s the sort, similar to Cantlay who has won this over the past 2 years, who by winning the BMW Championship this week would claim the biggest victory of his career to date. RESULT: T5
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