Paul Williams

Paul Williams' BMW International Open Tips 2026

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After tackling a course we’d not seen for over a decade last week in Italy, we move on to a more familiar challenge this week as the BMW International Open returns to the Golfclub München Eichenried in Germany once again. This event has hopped between here and another track in Cologne over the years, so please be careful when reviewing the history stats as 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2018 events were held on the other course in the rotation.

Joaquin Niemann heads the betting for the second week running and is a general 10/1 chance at the time of writing, with Race to Dubai leader Patrick Reed and the winner of the last two regular DP World Tour events, Eugenio Chacarra, following behind in a field which once again features a number of LIV golfers playing on sponsor’s invitations.

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Course Overview. At 7,354 yards for its par of 72, the length of this course is no problem for the modern professional, with 4 mid-range par-5s and couple of potentially driveable par-4s offering scoring opportunities. With generous fairways, the course is set up for attacking golf.

Historically the greens here had been tired, slow Bentgrass mixed with Poa Annua, however the putting surfaces were overhauled before the 2019 renewal and re-laid with Creeping Bentgrass; they’ve bedded in nicely now and offer excellent chances to those who can dial in their irons.

History has proven that many types of players with different styles have succeeded here – it could be either a high GIR player who putts well, or someone in good putting

form who finds more greens than normal who prevails. Either way, birdies and low scoring are the order of the day, particularly if rain does soften up the putting surfaces before the event as is forecast.

bmw international open tips

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s BMW International Open that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.

As per the notes above, this week’s venue played host to the event from 2002-11 in this week’s data, plus 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2021-2025: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Winners & Prices. 2025: Dan Brown, 100/1; 2024: Ewen Ferguson, 45/1; 2023: Thriston Lawrence, 100/1; 2022: Haotong Li, 66/1; 2021: Viktor Hovland, 13/2; 2019: Andrea Pavan, 100/1; 2018: Matt Wallace, 40/1; 2017: Andres Romero, 300/1; 2016: Henrik Stenson, 10/1; 2015: Pablo Larrazabal, 60/1; 2014: Fabrizio Zanotti, 80/1; 2013: Ernie Els, 22/1; 2012: Danny Willett, 90/1; 2011: Pablo Larrazabal, 45/1; 2010: David Horsey, 150/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

The scorching temperatures in Europe will have abated by the time the tournament starts, with the potential for some fairly significant rain on Monday night and Wednesday to soften the course with well over an inch possible. The four tournament days look pleasant though once the rain has cleared with dry, sunny conditions, light winds, and temperatures heading towards the mid-20s Centrigrade/mid-70s Fahrenheit.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors.

Analysing the final stats of the last 12 winners here on this track gives us a little more insight into the task at hand:

  • 2025, Dan Brown (-22). 313 yards, 76.38% fairways (1st), 83.3% greens in regulation (1st), 83.3% scrambling (2nd), 1.73 putts per GIR (20th).
  • 2024, Ewen Ferguson (-18). 292.8 yards, 64.3% fairways (8th), 76.4% greens in regulation (7th), 70.6% scrambling (17th), 1.71 putts per GIR (13th).
  • 2023, Thriston Lawrence (-13). 307.1 yards, 42.9% fairways (46th), 63.9% greens in regulation (35th), 65.4% scrambling (23rd), 1.65 putts per GIR (4th).
  • 2022, Haotong Li (-22). 295.1 yards, 55.4% fairways (42nd), 75.0% greens in regulation (14th), 55.6% scrambling (49th), 1.57 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2021, Viktor Hovland (-19). 309.9 yards, 60.7% fairways (19th), 73.6% greens in regulation (10th), 73.7% scrambling (7th), 1.63 putts per GIR (4th).
  • 2019, Andrea Pavan (-15). 300.1 yards, 51.8% fairways (44th), 79.2% greens in regulation (2nd), 80.0% scrambling (3rd), 1.75 putts per GIR (38th).
  • 2015, Pablo Larrazabal (-17). 281.8 yards, 66.1% fairways (22nd), 68.1% greens in regulation (33rd), 78.3% scrambling (5th), 1.73 putts per GIR (27th).
  • 2013, Ernie Els (-18). 295.9 yards, 55.4% fairways (50th), 88.9% greens in regulation (1st), 62.5% scrambling (18th), 1.78 putts per GIR (51st).
  • 2011, Pablo Larrazabal (-16). 280.3 yards, 76.8% fairways (2nd), 84.7% greens in regulation (2nd), 63.6% scrambling (25th), 1.75 putts per GIR (36th).
  • 2010, David Horsey (-18). 268.8 yards, 76.8% fairways (7th), 72.2% greens in regulation (34th), 75.0% scrambling (6th), 1.67 putts per GIR (13th).
  • 2009, Nick Dougherty (-22). 283.3 yards, 66.1% fairways (53rd), 76.4% greens in regulation (32nd), 64.7% scrambling (27th), 1.58 putts per GIR (3rd).
  • 2008, Martin Kaymer (-15). 293.1 yards, 60.7% fairways (45th), 86.1% greens in regulation (1st), 80% scrambling (1st), 1.77 putts per GIR (56th).

No stats were captured by the European Tour for 2017 winner Andres Romero.

Despite the course seemingly setting up nicely for the longer hitters with 4 gettable par-5s and a couple of very short par 4s, length off the tee hasn’t been the overriding factor in the winners listed here.

Scoring tends to be quite low here with 15- to 22-under the winning totals from 2008 until last year, although a bit of wind in 2023 coupled with some tough pin positions resulted in 13-under being good enough for Thriston Lawrence.

One thing that sticks out is that since the BMW International Open returned to Munich in 2021, winners have consistently dominated the par 5s. Dan Brown (11-under), Ewen Ferguson (9-under), Thriston Lawrence (11-under), Haotong Li (12-under) and Viktor Hovland (11-under) all built their victories around exploiting the four scoring holes, often compiling more than half of their winning total on the par 5s alone.

Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, all 6 winners had solid SG Approach numbers and each were within the top 15 for SG Tee to Green and top 24 for SG Putting.

The most consistent stat though if those who finished just short of the eventual winners are considered is undoubtedly SG Tee to Green, with eventual winner Dan Brown topping that stat 12 months ago:

  • 2025, Dan Brown: T: 6th; A: 7th; T2G: 1st; ATG: 13th; P: 24th
  • 2024, Ewen Ferguson: T: 31st; A: 2nd; T2G: 3rd; ATG: 29th; P: 10th
  • 2023, Thriston Lawrence: T: 27th; A: 14th; T2G: 6th; ATG: 7th; P: 10th
  • 2022, Haotong Li: T: 13th; A: 12th; T2G: 1st; ATG: 6th; P: 12th
  • 2021, Viktor Hovland: T: 12th; A: 23rd; T2G: 15th; ATG: 54th; P: 1st
  • 2019, Andrea Pavan: T: 40th; A: 11th, T2G: 12th, ATG: 10th; P: 7th

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Incoming Form: Taking results at this venue in isolation, current form of our eventual winners here has been decidedly mixed of late.

Dan Brown was a frustrating one for the betting community last year, with some encouraging form at times in the year interspersed with some less impressive efforts and two withdrawals from his previous four starts. 26th in the Netherlands a month before was his last outing before taking this title in style at 100/1.

Andres Romero is another who would have bamboozled most punters as he hadn’t made a cut all year until the point that he won here in 2017, and at 300/1 it would have been an inspired choice to have plucked him out of the field as the eventual winner pre-event.

Prior to Romero’s success, Larrazabal in 2015 had gone off the boil a little although he’d finished 3rd in Morocco earlier in the year. Els came straight here from Merion where he’d finished 4th the week before, plus he’d finished 6th at Wentworth and 2nd in Indonesia in recent times so was in decent nick.

Larrazabal (2011) had finished 11th at the Italian Open a fortnight before, plus had recent contending performances including 4th in Wales and 3rd in Spain. Horsey had finished 2nd in the Italian Open a month before, Dougherty was 4th in the Irish Open the previous month and Kaymer had produced a couple of top 10s in his previous 5 events, plus had won earlier in the season in the Middle East.

In 2019, eventual winner Andrea Pavan arrived after 3 weeks off having missed his last cut at the Belgian Knockout. Prior to that his form had been solid if unspectacular with 4 finishes inside the top-27 on his previous 5 starts.

2021 favourite Viktor Hovland had withdrawn from the US Open after getting sand in his eye in an opening round of 74; prior to that, a pair of 3rd place finishes at the PGA Tour’s Valspar Championship and Wells Fargo Championship suggested he was in decent form overall:

2022 winner Haotong Li  – who we were on at 66/1 – had shown some improved form in the 6 months or so prior to his win, finishing 2nd at the China Open, 3rd in Ras al Khaimah and 6th at the ISPS Handa Championship in Spain before recording a top 20 on his last start on German soil.

Ewen Ferguson was a little more gettable than some in 2024, however 2023 winner Thriston Lawrence is a case in point having not recorded a top 10 all season before his win here, arriving off the back of incoming form of MC/62/MC/MC. 100/1 was the reward for those who could look past the raw numbers.

  • 2025, Dan Brown: 43/55/57/MC/27/2/10/14/WD/63/WD/26
  • 2024, Ewen Ferguson: MC/23/9/7/20/23/11/47/60/WD/27/29
  • 2023, Thriston Lawrence: 42/MC/38/MC/14/52/28/32/MC/62/MC/MC
  • 2022, Haotong Li: 2/12/MC/32/3/33/MC/6/26/MC/37/18
  • 2021, Viktor Hovland: 6/5/2/49/MC/42/21/3/3/30/47/WD
  • 2019, Andrea Pavan: MC/MC/34/31/MC/60/27/21/MC/15/25/MC
  • 2017, Andres Romero: 67/MC/MC/MC/58/18/24/27/MC/MC/MC/MC
  • 2015, Pablo Larrazabal: 33/20/20/3/22/MC/49/MC/MC/43
  • 2013, Ernie Els: MC/14/13/MC/15/2/MC/6/37/4
  • 2011, Pablo Larrazabal: MC/18/44/30/10/3/49/MC/4/11
  • 2010, David Horsey: 11/60/29/MC/42/46/2/MC/MC/MC
  • 2009: Nick Dougherty: 14/MC/47/MC/48/31/4/13/MC/37
  • 2008: Martin Kaymer: 33/MC/57/39/MC/7/10/16/21/53

Course Form (back to 2008): There’s a real mix of course experience from our winners here in Munich, ranging from multiple winner Pablo Larrazabal – who’d also finished 3rd before his first win – to Viktor Hovland, Haotong Li and Ewen Ferguson who have won three of the last five renewals on debut, and Dan Brown who’d missed the cut on both of his previous starts here:

  • 2025, Dan Brown: MC/MC
  • 2024, Ewen Ferguson: Debut
  • 2023, Thriston Lawrence: 36
  • 2022, Haotong Li: Debut
  • 2021, Viktor Hovland: Debut
  • 2019, Andrea Pavan: MC
  • 2017, Andres Romero: 28/22
  • 2015, Pablo Larrazabal: 61/MC/3/1/MC
  • 2013, Ernie Els: 26/5/17/7/MC
  • 2011, Pablo Larrazabal: 61/MC/3
  • 2010, David Horsey: Debut
  • 2009: Nick Dougherty: 46/24/MC/50/30/MC/26
  • 2008: Martin Kaymer: 58/MC/MC

My team for the week is as follows:

Joaquin Niemann 4pts Enhanced Win Only 12/1 with bet365

A cursory look at the winners’ prices here in Munich in recent years, and wider results in this event in general, might put you offer backing Joaquin Niemann this week, however I beg to differ. Since Eichenried picked up the reins for the BMW International Open on a regular basis in 2019, Andrea Pavan, Haotong Li, Thriston Lawrence, Ewen Ferguson and Daniel Brown have won here at between 45/1 and 100/1, with the exception to the rule being Viktor Hovland in 2021 who was a 13/2 chance.

Viktor’s win in 2021 illustrates – if evidence were ever required – that players dipping down a level to play regular DP World Tour events can’t be ignored, regardless of their price and course experience. On a track where previous performances seemingly have little bearing on a player’s chance, I find little justification in finding a reason to swerve this week’s favourite as he drops down from a LIV circuit where he’s won 8 times in the past 2 years.

7th at the US Open is form that’s head and shoulders above that of anyone else in this week’s field, and it was that effort and the subsequent travel and adjustment required which ultimately put me off backing him last week in Italy. That decision could have backfired after the Chilean opened with rounds of 64/63 to lead by two at the halfway point in Turin, however perhaps everything caught up with him eventually with a flat Saturday and early double bogey on Sunday ultimately leaving too far behind an impressive Eugenio Chacarra to make an impact.

Statistically the 27 year-old topped SG Off the Tee, SG Approach and SG Tee to Green last week, producing a long-game clinic that would be befitting of any champion here in Munich, and should he repeat that again this week while keeping mistakes with the putter to a minimum he’ll be hard to beat. 4 putts from 33 feet on the 2nd hole on Sunday was one such example which dragged his putting numbers down on the week in Italy, however with a bit of rest and more preparation time this week I can see those kind of disasters eradicated here.

Pre-event rain will only help the chances of a player who averages over 307 yards from off the tee on the LIV Tour this year so far, and with Matt Wallace not in the field and Patrick Reed seemingly off the boil after his early-season exploits, seeing a classy player like Niemann mop up this title wouldn’t surprise me whatsoever.

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Calum Hill 1pt EW 55/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

With the favourite unapologetically on this week’s team, let’s restore some order and delve into the mid-price range that’s been so fruitful here and stick with Calum Hill who I maintain is seriously close to winning a third DP World Tour title.

Having followed his performance very closely last week in Turin given he was carrying my money, the most frustrating thing is that the momentum-stopping mistakes were just too frequent to allow some of his outstanding approach play and putting to make a significant impact on the leaderboard. In the end a tie for 19th was the Scot’s third successive top-20 finish and he we was strokes gained positive in every category without excelling in the one or two areas which could have put him a little closer to the winning total. 2 Eagles and 22 birdies was encouraging though heading into what should be a low-scoring affair, and for me he feels like a very similar pick to Haotong Li in 2022 when he obliged at a similar price.

An Eichenried form line of 17/10/32/MC doesn’t tell the complete story as the 31 year-old has sat inside the top 10 at halfway on three of those four occasions; with the oppressive heat of Turin now behind us, perhaps we’ll see Calum finally piece together the four rounds that some of recent play has hinted at being possible.

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Kazuma Kobori 1pt EW 55/1 (8EW, 1/5) with BetFred

Just a little further down the betting, I’ll also stick with Kazuma Kobori for a second successive week. Like Calum Hill, the Japanese-born Kiwi ultimately disappointed in Italy from a betting perspective, having opened up with an impressive round of 65 to sit in a tie for 3rd after 18 holes. Rounds of 69/70/68 followed as the 24 year-old finished alongside Hill in a tie for 19th place, however there were plenty of positives to take from his performance to encourage further investment this week.

Controlled and straight from off the tee, Kobori’s approach play was the shining light in Turin, ranking 4th for SG Approach and continuing an impressive run with his irons that spans his 13th place finish in Turkey, 6th at the Catalunya Championship, and 28th in the Netherlands. He also finished 10-under for the par-5s last week in Italy, the third time in his last six starts that he’s reached double figures under par for the long holes as he arrives at another course where that aspect is of critical importance.

Kazuma made his German debut on this course last year, opening with a round of 72 to leave him the wrong side of the cut line after 18 holes. Rounds of 67/68/63 followed with that closing round in particular – which featured 9 birdies and an eagle –  equalling the best round of the week and earning him an entry into my notebook ahead of future visits here to Munich.

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Maximilian Steinlechner 1pt EW 110/1 (8EW, 1/5) with BetFred

Finally, I backed Maximilian Steinlechner at the Austrian Open a month ago where he agonisingly finished in a tie for 7th when I’d backed him at a healthy 3-figure price for 6 places, however I’ll take the many positives out of that effort and support him again this week now that the dust has settled.

The justification for supporting the 26 year-old last month was largely down to his record on home soil; this short journey from his home in Innsbruck across the border into Germany could see him produce another positive finish in a season that’s also seen him finish 3rd at the KLM Open to put him on the brink of retaining his card for 2027 at this relatively early stage in the year.

4th for SG Approach was the key statistic to pull out of his Austrian effort where he found himself briefly at the top of the leaderboard on Sunday before falling away, and he produced a similar effort the following week in the Netherlands whilst also ranking 3rd for SG Tee to Green, all of which ties in nicely with what we’re looking for in our players here in Munich.

25th last week in Italy was solid if unspectacular after three weeks off and he’s available at a very backable each-way price in my view, where his lack of course experience isn’t likely to be as relevant as the bookies may have factored in.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:15BST 29.6.26 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.