Paul Williams

Paul Williams' BMW PGA Championship Tips 2024

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As expected with a course as tough as Royal County Down it was a rollercoaster week in Northern Ireland, with Rasmus Hojgaard producing another win from off the pace to secure his fifth victory at DP World Tour level and heap more misery on Rory McIlroy who once again let a golden opportunity slip from his grasp. For us, Robert MacIntyre (18/1) and Daniel Brown (200/1) both secured full each-way payouts to make it a positive week overall.

On to this week we go and to the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth which is one of the highlights of the golfing calendar for me, and our annual return to the famous Surrey parkland course sees a strong field assemble as the DP World Tour heads towards its business end of the season.

Rory McIlroy heads the field once again this week with 11/2, give or take, the consensus view on his price from the bookies. Tommy Fleetwood, Adam Scott and Billy Horschel join some of last week’s cast including Shane Lowry, Bob MacIntyre and Aaron Rai in what is a strong field of 126.

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Odds above used for illustrative purposes and were correct at 15:30BST 16.09.24, but are naturally subject to fluctuation.

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West Course, Wentworth, Surrey, England. Designer: Harry Colt, 1926 with Els re-design 2009/2016; Course Type: Classical; Par: 72; Length: 7,267 yards; Fairways: Bentgrass, Fescue, Poa Annua; Rough: Rye, Fescue; Greens: Creeping Bentgrass.

Course Overview. A week after Chris Wood’s victory here in 2016, Wentworth began its second major transformation under the guidance of Ernie Els. This time, with the help of European Golf Design, the brief was to return the course back closer to the original vision conceived by Harry Colt but with consideration for how golf has developed in modern times. Whereas the changes implemented by Els and his team back in 2009, with a few subsequent revisions, toughened the track up with a series of relatively severe features, these latest changes softened the course to a degree, particularly on and around the greens.

The layout and routing wasn’t altered during the 2016 renovations, however in total 29 bunkers were removed from the track completely and all remaining bunkers were reconstructed and generally softened to make the course more playable. A sub-air system, as per Augusta National, was installed on all 18 greens and the putting surfaces were stripped and re-laid with creeping bentgrass to replace the tired and inconsistent Bent/Poa mix.

The 3rd, 4th, 5th, 12th and 15th greens were rebuilt to a degree whereas the 8th, 11th, 14th and 16th were completely overhauled in a bid to make the surfaces more amenable. The entrances to a number of greens were opened too as part of the changes to encourage more shot-making options and to make them more accessible from the ground, in turn allowing balls to roll onto the greens as per Colt’s original concept here.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s BMW PGA Championship that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.

Winners & Prices. 2023: Ryan Fox, 50/1; 2022: Shane Lowry, 18/1; 2021: Billy Horschel, 28/1; 2020: Tyrrell Hatton, 16/1; 2019: Danny Willett, 66/1; 2018: Francesco Molinari, 22/1; 2017: Alex Noren, 20/1; 2016: Chris Wood, 66/1; 2015: Byeong-Hun An, 100/1; 2014: Rory McIlroy, 14/1; 2013: Matteo Manassero, 66/1; 2012: Luke Donald, 8/1; 2011: Luke Donald, 15/2; 2010: Simon Khan, 200/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

The cool, changeable conditions of last week in Northern Ireland are a thing of the past and Wentworth will enjoy some late summer sunshine this week with temperatures edging into the low 70s Fahrenheit in the afternoons. A moderate easterly wind of between 10-15mph will keep the players honest though and there’s the risk of the odd shower over the weekend.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the last 14 winners here since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

  • 2023, Ryan Fox (-18). 53.6% fairways (55th), 65.3% greens in regulation (38th), 76% scrambling (5th), 1.52 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2022, Shane Lowry (-17, 54 holes). 61.9% fairways (29th), 90.7% greens in regulation (1st), 100% scrambling (1st), 1.76 putts per GIR (55th).
  • 2021, Billy Horschel (-19). 64.3% fairways (13th), 80.6% greens in regulation (1st), 78.6% scrambling (3rd), 1.69 putts per GIR (29th).
  • 2020, Tyrrell Hatton (-19). 71.4% fairways (5th), 66.7% greens in regulation (22nd), 83.3% scrambling (1st), 1.67 putts per GIR (14th).
  • 2019, Danny Willett (-20). 64.3% fairways (16th), 76.4% greens in regulation (2nd), 70.6% scrambling (8th), 1.58 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2018, Francesco Molinari (-17). 76.8% fairways (4th), 73.6% greens in regulation (8th), 89.5% scrambling (1st), 1.72 putts per GIR (25th).
  • 2017, Alex Noren (-11). 60.7% fairways (32nd), 62.5% greens in regulation (26th), 70.4% scrambling (4th), 1.64 putts per GIR (9th).
  • 2016, Chris Wood (-9). 69.6% fairways (7th), 73.6% greens in regulation (4th), 52.6% scrambling (18th), 1.70 putts per GIR (13th).
  • 2015, Byeong-Hun An (-21). 62.5% fairways (35th), 84.7% greens in regulation (1st), 81.8% scrambling (1st), 1.69 putts per GIR (11th).
  • 2014, Rory McIlroy (-14). 67.9% fairways (30th), 68.1% greens in regulation (22nd), 60.9% scrambling (21st), 1.65 putts per GIR (8th).
  • 2013, Matteo Manassero (-10). 60.7% fairways (47th), 73.6% greens in regulation (4th), 63.2% scrambling (14th), 1.75 putts per GIR (35th).
  • 2012, Luke Donald (-15). 58.9% fairways (40th), 70.8% greens in regulation (10th), 66.7% scrambling (2nd), 1.67 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2011, Luke Donald (-6). 67.9% fairways (23rd), 70.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 57.1% scrambling (25th), 1.70 putts per GIR (4th).
  • 2010, Simon Khan (-6). 87.5% fairways (1st), 81.9% greens in regulation (1st), 53.8% scrambling (34th), 1.81 putts per GIR (54th).

Traditionally this has been a strong all-round test and contenders can’t be lacking in any particular area of their game this week if they want to succeed. Last year’s winner Ryan Fox hit fewer greens in relation than most on his way to victory, but he did continue the trend we’d seen the previous few years where scrambling was a critical factor, as the Kiwi ranked fifth for getting up and over the 4 days.

Stroke Gained Stats: From a Strokes Gained perspective, SG Tee to Green was the most consistent stat from the past four years with eventual winners Tyrrell Hatton, Billy Horschel and Shane Lowry each topping that statistic, and Ryan Fox ranking 9th last year:

  • 2023: Ryan Fox. T: 26th; A: 7th; T2G: 9th; ATG: 38th; P: 6th
  • 2022: Shane Lowry. T: 16th; A: 9th; T2G: 1st; ATG: 16th; P: 19th
  • 2021: Billy Horschel. T: 2nd; A: 1st; T2G: 1st; ATG: 45th; P: 42nd
  • 2020: Tyrrell Hatton. T: 11th; A: 20th; T2G: 1st; ATG: 2nd; P: 11th

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

Taking that point a step further, 8 of the top 9 finishers last year ranked inside the top 9 for SG T2G on the week, with Viktor Hovland – who finished 5th – ranking 15th on that count too.

Incoming Form: The three short-priced winners (McIlroy and Donald twice) entered the event off the back of some strong form and at least 2 consecutive top 10s immediately prior to victory here. Manassero’s form was less obvious with a couple of top 20s in his previous 4 outings, whereas Simon Khan’s win came from completely off the page as a late sponsor’s invitation. 2015 winner Byeong-Hun An arrived with immediate form of 8/15 and had a further two top-10 finishes to his name for the year to date.

2016 winner Chris Wood had finished 54th in Ireland the week before winning here which was his first event for over a month – 8th at the Dubai Desert Classic had been the Bristolian’s best effort of the year to date. 2017 winner Alex Noren had won 4 times the previous season and although he’d not taken any further silverware in 2017 up to the point of his victory here, he had made the quarter-finals of the WGC Match Play before finishing a creditable 10th at TPC Sawgrass in elite company on his last start.

Francesco Molinari’s form for the season to date in 2018 wasn’t anything special, hence the 22/1 price point despite his strong course form. 2 top-20s in his previous 5 starts hinted at some developing form though and the rest is history as he won the Quicken Loans National and then the Open Championship over his next few starts after proving victorious here.

2019 winner Danny Willett frustrated many punters having been a well-backed fancy on his previous start at Crans-sur-Sierre where he missed the cut. Prior to that though, he’d finished 6th at the Open Championship and produced 2 strong rounds in decent company at The Northern Trust in the PGA Tour Playoffs so, Crans aside, the signs were there.

2020 winner Tyrrell Hatton made it a hat-trick of victors here coming off the back of a missed cut, having finished 6 shots adrift of the line at the US Open on his previous start. 5th in terms of 72-hole scoring at the Tour Championship prior to that was strong form though in elite PGA Tour company, having already converted State-side earlier in the year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

2021 winner Billy Horschel had won the WGC Match Play earlier that year but his finishes since that point had been fairly average, albeit at PGA Tour level, until finishing 7th in 72-hole scoring at the Tour Championship on his previous start.

2022 winner Shane Lowry best results had come earlier in the year, finishing 3rd at both The Masters and the RBC Heritage in successive weeks. 12th at the BMW Championship on his last start meant that the Irishman just missed out on the PGA Tour’s East Lake finale, however he was undoubtedly trending and had openly stated that he was playing some very good golf.

Finally, last year’s winner Ryan Fox returned after a 6-week break to finish 3rd in Ireland the week before his victory 12 months ago. The Kiwi had spent most of his season on the PGA Tour, however 12th at the Scottish Open suggested a level of comfort this side of the Atlantic which he franked here at the West Course a few weeks later:

  • 2023, Ryan Fox: 17/MC/26/WD/23/21/30/43/12/52/MC/3
  • 2022, Shane Lowry: 3/3/13/23/32/10/MC/9/21/83/46/12
  • 2021, Billy Horschel: 50/25/23/40/67/MC/54/53/17/31/52/7
  • 2020, Tyrrell Hatton: 1/46/6/1/3/4/69/MC/25/16/5/MC
  • 2019, Danny Willett: MC/MC/MC/41/27/8/12/MC/6/48/24/MC
  • 2018, Francesco Molinari: 17/8/45/40/MC/25/26/17/20/49/16/MC
  • 2017, Alex Noren: 12/1/23/13/21/MC/55/49/5/MC/31/10
  • 2016, Chris Wood: MC/MC/8/MC/42/20/61/42/34/54
  • 2015, Byeong-Hun An: 12/5/13/7/45/59/34/MC/8/15
  • 2014, Rory McIlroy: 2/9/17/2/25/7/8/8/6
  • 2013, Matteo Manassero: 9/23/22/12/33/29/23/17/MC/16/68
  • 2012, Luke Donald: 48/56/33/6/1/32/37/3/6
  • 2011, Luke Donald: MC/1/10/6/4/2/8/4/2
  • 2010, Simon Khan: MC/65/57/56/61/MC/69/MC/27

Course Form: Given his recent form, the 100/1 about Benny An in 2015 was best explained by the fact that it was his Wentworth debut and, at the time, he was still a Tour maiden.

Until then, and including Ryan Fox, Shane Lowry, Billy Horschel, Tyrrell Hatton, Danny Willett, Francesco Molinari and Alex Noren from the past 7 renewals, recent winners here had produced a top-20 or better over the West Course in either its previous or current guise, suggesting that positive experience of this part of Surrey in some shape or form is pretty critical.

Wentworth hadn’t been Rory McIlroy’s favourite stomping ground prior to victory in 2014, however he had nevertheless produced a top-5 on his second attempt in 2009; Matteo Manassero had finished 7th two years prior to victory which followed his 17th place finish on debut; Luke Donald had finished 3rd in 2008 and 2nd in 2010 prior to his back-to-back wins in 2011 and 2012; even ‘surprise’ 2010 winner Simon Khan had previously finished 2nd at Wentworth 4 years previously, so his ability to play the course shouldn’t have been a total shock – which he again proved in 2013 when making the play-off.

Event form prior to winning here since 2010 is as follows:

  • 2023, Ryan Fox: MC/43/MC/20/63/WD
  • 2022, Shane Lowry: 65/4/68/12/2/6/MC/6/15/11/13/17
  • 2021, Billy Horschel: 4
  • 2020, Tyrrell Hatton: 38/46/7/30/MC/MC
  • 2019, Danny Willett: 5/MC/43/32/63/38/3/58/MC
  • 2018, Francesco Molinari: 30/MC/35/17/50/7/9/7/5/55/2
  • 2017, Alex Noren: MC/6/21/74/MC/21/32/WD/8/43
  • 2016, Chris Wood: 6/MC/49/WD/21/4
  • 2015, Byeong-Hun An: Debut
  • 2014, Rory McIlroy: MC/5/48/24/MC/MC
  • 2013, Matteo Manassero: 17/7/43
  • 2012, Luke Donald: 18/25/7/3/35/2/1
  • 2011, Luke Donald: 18/25/7/3/35/2
  • 2010, Simon Khan: 24/MC/2/24/10/MC

This classical, tree-lined track is at its most challenging when the wind blows – even a 10-15 mph breeze can play havoc with club selection as it whistles around the treetops and that’s exactly what the players are likely to get this week.

For me this is a combination of solid all-round play, bogey avoidance and some positive course experience where the eventual winner is likely to have an extra touch of class about him.

All things considered, my selections are as follows:

Shane Lowry 3pts EW 14/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Rory McIlroy understandably heads the betting once again this week at a similar opening price to last week and as ever he’s impossible to discount here at Wentworth.

A win and two runner-up finishes here in Surrey from his last six attempts suggests Rory’s put what was previously a rather indifferent record here at the West Course to one side, and with three wins globally in 2024 he’s hardly had a bad year, yet the manner of some of his near misses has been more than a little alarming. Last week was another case in point on home soil where bogeys on 15 and 17 on Sunday left him needing an eagle up the last to take Rasmus Hojgaard to extra holes. It was a valiant effort on the 72nd but ultimately to no avail, however for a player of his quality perhaps it’s fair to say he shouldn’t have left himself in that position. I expect Rory to be right in the mix here once again but at the odds I can let him go unbacked.

Tommy Fleetwood is always chalked up as a short price on European soil and 10/1 is no bargain for a player who’s finished no better than 6th here from 12 attempts. Adam Scott has the Presidents Cup next week which might provide too much of a distraction, however there’s no such issues for Shane Lowry who I fancy could win a second BMW PGA Championship title this week with last week’s Irish Open out of the way.

The expectation on the likes of Lowry and McIlroy last week was huge, although Shane by his own admission came into the week jaded and under-prepared after a tough run of events up to and including the FedEx Cup Playoffs. The Irishman’s playing some great golf though – and he knows it – and despite finishing 12th he was delighted with the way he drove the ball all week, plus was happy with the putter and ranked 8th in the field for Scrambling. The only fly in the ointment was his iron-play, however whether he or his backers should have reasonably expected every aspect of his game to have been in tip-top condition last week is debatable and he comes into this week knowing that a few days of fine-tuning his approach play could well pay dividends.

6th at The Open was his most prominent performance of late which could and perhaps should have been better, let down by his Saturday round in tough conditions, however 13th at the BMW Championship and 8th at East Lake to round off his PGA Tour campaign was impressive and he returns to one of his most prolific venues in good heart and good form.

Aside from his 2022 victory here when he was making similar noises about the state of his game, Shane’s also finished runner-up in 2014 and has three further top-6 finishes and six additional top-20 finishes to rubber-stamp his liking for this course. Another prominent performance is quite likely here in my view. RESULT: T12

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Matthieu Pavon 1pt EW 50/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

As the 7th highest-ranked player in this week’s field according to the OWGR, the early 70/1 chalked up about Matthieu Pavon by some bookies seemed a little generous and Monday morning punters duly gobbled up any price they could get. Even at anything around the 50/1 mark there’s still significant enough disparity to make him a decent each-way bet this week though and I’m happy to get involved.

The Frenchman broke his duck on the DP World Tour at last year’s Spanish Open and will defend his title next week in Madrid, so this week should very much be the calm before the storm in terms of his commitments as defending champion which may translate to a more relaxed mindset this week. Promotion to the PGA Tour from his 2023 efforts saw him break through at the Farmers Insurance Open in late January, beating a strong field of US-based regulars on the classical setup that is Torrey Pines with its mix of Bent and Bent/Poa putting surfaces correlating nicely with this week’s task.

5th at the US Open – on another classical-style track at Pinehurst No.2 – was the last really prominent performance that we’ve seen from the 31 year-old, however after a poor Olympics he’s shown progressive form with 46 at the St Jude (2nd after day 1), 33rd at the BMW Championship, and then 15th at the Tour Championship for the Playoffs finale.

4th for GIR and 11th for SG Approach was an encouraging way to end his maiden season on the PGA Tour at East Lake; he returns now to more familiar courses at 46th in the Race to Dubai with more than a live chance of reaching the DP World Tour’s own Playoff final in Dubai in a couple of months’ time. RESULT: T40

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Laurie Canter – WD Pre-Event

Another player who’s had a breakthrough season is Laurie Canter and at 16th in the Race To Dubai the Englishman could be on the cusp of joining the likes of last year’s grads Matthieu Pavon and Bob MacIntyre on the PGA Tour next year. With 5 of those ahead of him in the rankings already exempt, Canter sits just on the outside looking in right now but a big performance this week would undoubtedly change all of that.

A two stroke victory at this year’s European Open in Germany provided the Somerset man with a long-awaited first DP World Tour victory, and it was clear from the outburst of support from his peers just how popular the 31 year-old is on the circuit, a sentiment that will no doubt be redoubled should he navigate his way to a State-side card next year.

Having lamented a stone-cold putter since his victory, recording nothing better than 25th – albeit that was at The Open Championship – Canter had a new, bespoke putter in the bag last week and the results were almost instantaneous. After losing strokes on the greens on 4 of his previous 5 outings, Laurie gained more than half a stroke per day at Royal County Down on his way to a 17th place finish, which could have been so much better had he maintained the form of his opening two rounds which saw him sit in 2nd place heading into the weekend.

With positive vibes from his equipment change he could be a force to be reckoned with this week on a Wentworth course where he finished runner-up on debut back in 2021, eventually losing out by a stroke to Billy Horschel. Now a winner on Tour and with a significant incentive to put in a big shift this week, perhaps he can go one better here this time around. RESULT: WD Pre-Event

Adrian Otaegui 1pt EW 150/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Finally, I’ll take a chance on one of last week’s statistical eye-catchers Adrian Otaegui who’s available at a healthy 3-figure price of anything between 100/1 – 200/1 depending how you choose to play the each-way terms.

After a string of five consecutive missed cuts, the Spaniard bounced back to something far more respectable last week in Northern Ireland with a 17th place finish, however it was his field-leading performance in terms of both Driving Accuracy and GIR which suggests he might just have enough in the locker to sneak into the each-way paying places here this week. In Strokes Gained terms that translated to an impressive 4th for SG Off the Tee and 3rd for SG Tee to Green at Royal County Down.

5 times a winner at DP World Tour level, Adrian’s most recent victory came in May of this year in China, however his 2022 success at Valderrama – by a massive six strokes – is undoubtedly more relevant to this week’s task given the tree-lined test over there is Spain.

It’s taken the 31 year-old a few years to get to grips with the test presented by the West Course here at Wentworth, however having missed 4 of his first 5 cuts here he’s since finished 49th, 13th and 36th shooting nothing worst than level par on any of his last 11 rounds. 6th into the final round at the weather-reduced 2022 edition was his first true taste of contention here in Surrey, and with his long game back on song perhaps he can put himself in a similar position again this year. RESULT: T18

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 15:25BST 16.9.24 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.